What Happened to the Sirius Post Labor Day Conference Call?

As I expected, confusion is running rampant over an expected conference call that as of yet, has not been announced by Sirius XM (SIRI).  This could be attributed to many factors which may have gathered strength, much like Gustav, since Mel Karmazin announced that the company would provide more specific guidance after Labor Day. Mr. Karmazin never actually said “the day after Labor Day” and most analysts clearly understood this.

Most reasonable thinking people could easily understand the statement. There are some manipulative powers however, that decided to use this statement over the past few weeks. They successfully built a sort of hyped anticipation in the minds of unknowing investors through various stock message boards. Now that Labor Day has passed, many are confused because of these postings and the lack of any announcement.

The final appeals date for any and all filings falls on September 4, 2008. As of now, the company must remain silent in certain matters as last minute appeals are sure to be filed. Anyone could be trying to build a case through the appeals process, and the company must be careful not to give the opposition any ammunition in the meantime.

Appeals can and probably will come from anywhere. C3SR, Georgetown Partners, the NAB and even our old old pal Michael Hartlieb could file an appeal over anything from bandwidth allocations to the lack of interoperable radios in the marketplace. I’m sure the company is expecting as much within the next few days.

Of course, most experts will dismiss the validity of any yet to be filed lawsuits as two separate branches of government have already reviewed and granted the merger, which includes most if not all of the same information that had been previously presented. At this point in time the undoing of the merger is, in my opinion, an impossibility.

Although we may not have an actual conference call this week, the chances are good in my opinion that the company may announce a date by this Friday of a call next week. In the meantime, the stock should continue to trade in a range, as we all wait in anticipation of the recently promised guidance.

Position: Long SIRI

Comments

[truck_drive...:]

I think your putting to much anticipation on the near term outlook of the company. Lets be realistic here. Earnings is the ONLY thing we should be looking forward to hearing about. IMHO people should build there positions in siri at this level and just hold on to it for 3-5 years.

2008 Sep 03 08:06 AM

[User 190103:]

I think that a post Labor Day press conference means just that. After labor day doesn't have to mean the next day. I am under the impression that both SIRI and XMSR hid a lot of info from each other to protect themselves in case the merger didn't go through. Now there may be a lot of details that were not forseen. Mel doen't usually disappoint so I'll give him a few more days.

2008 Sep 03 08:24 AM

[cos1000:]

Here's the next formal presentation of information by the Company. There may be more but this is a start.

Karmazin to Present at the 2008 Merrill Lynch Media Fall Preview Conference
NEW YORK, Sept 02, 2008 /PRNewswire-FirstCall via COMTEX News Network/ — SIRIUS
XM Radio (Nasdaq: SIRI) today announced that Mel Karmazin, its Chief Executive
Officer, is expected to present at the 2008 Merrill Lynch Media Fall Preview
Conference in Marina del Rey, CA on Tuesday, September 9, 2008 at approximately
8:00 am PT.

2008 Sep 03 08:37 AM

[relmor:]

Of course it is no coincidence that their planned guidance must come after this Sept. 4th date. I was not expecting it till after.

2008 Sep 03 08:40 AM

[BURTBECK:]

cos1000---Good morning again! I was a bit surprised to read a few minutes ago that Mel will talk at ML 9/9 confab. Then I see your post "but this is a start". My thought is---what can he say 9/9 without first spelling out post-merger details in a regular cc with analysts?? Or will he use the ML forum for such a presentation?? ANYTHING he says now post-merger will be very revealing because as of now we sure have nothing to go on. What say you???

2008 Sep 03 09:13 AM

[cos1000:]

BURTBECK.......Good morning. I believe you are right about any announcement but, this conference is a must if they are going to roll out product for the Christmas Season. I am perplexed by the silence, but as the article states, we might here more on Friday or Monday. I think the question becomes who do they address first: The consumer which drives the company's earnings or the Investment community that has already pounded the stock down. I'm betting he will take care of the consumer first to begin growing revenues and do a pre-announcement of third quarter results later. In the long run it will be company performance not analyst cheer leading that will move the stock. He already has all the analysts but GS, Weinke, feeling the stock is oversold and undervalued.

2008 Sep 03 09:47 AM

[BURTBECK:]

cos1000---Good post. We shall see!

2008 Sep 03 10:10 AM

[killerkaul:]

163888........ Hang in there buddy, we are all with you. Run Blue Dog Runnnnnnn................

2008 Sep 03 10:39 AM

[Luckiguess:]

Any forward looking big news about sirius xm will most likely follow the September 4, filing deadline.

2008 Sep 03 11:13 AM

[cos1000:]

killerkaul, I am with you 100%. The Vicar of Value who changed his name to cos10000 yesterday is the reason Seeking Alpha has banned 183888 from posting here. That was my understanding. Maybe someone from Seeking Alpha can speak to the issue. I don't see how supporting the tactics of the individual posting as "The Vicar of Value", or now "cos10000" ads to the quality of the forum. Instead the Forum has lost a "reasonable voice" in presenting this company's market condition. But that is just my humble opinion.

2008 Sep 03 11:48 AM

[cos1000:]

correction ......banned 163888

2008 Sep 03 11:48 AM

[Up the tail...:]

Oh Vicar of Value! You are so great! Not.

2008 Sep 03 01:09 PM

[Scot's Slant:]

Scot here. It was interesting to read an earlier post where if a blog author changes their pen-name, a paper trail follows where even though a new name replaces the old, the new one still attaches to postings from the past -- this I've got to see, but for that, I need guidance: I need a road map from somebody who can tell me which button to push and where to "click."

And oh, by the way, there is one more thing: I love this changing of names as it smells like covert-ops and James Bond sort of stuff. Or maybe, in loving this stuff, all this shows is that I need to get a life....

Scot's Slant

2008 Sep 03 02:58 PM

[BillybytheSea:]

Increase pps? We need to see plans for the converts and a profit...I have been waiting 10 years for the latter necessity...the rest of the hype from many of the common shareholder harmonic hopefuls, along with the misaligned negativity from a few back-door analysts, is sure to keep us in a tight and accumulative trading range...I sense some good news about either a new device and/or a partnership with a big whig is about the only thing that could move the pps up at this time...volume has dwindled and a tremendous amount of $ has been made by a small number of buyers/sellers over the last 10 days...as a caveat, Karmazin has been a winner many times in the past and he was faced with similar hurdles then...that, along with his considerable investment...and more so, with his fervent desire to demonstrate that he was right, will drive us forward and to profitability, sooner rather than later...hopeful? Yes.

2008 Sep 03 03:42 PM

[killerkaul:]

above ........... should read click.

2008 Sep 03 07:03 PM

[Scot's Slant:]

Scot here. Killerkaul, thanks for the tip. I can't believe it. In my earlier post I mentioned that changing of blog names sounded like covert sort of stuff -- exciting. But now, I cannot help but feel betrayed and let down by someone who held themselves out to be honest. Mr. Vicar, not cool....

Oh, there is one more thing: I'm too bummed out to think of one more damned thing to say.

Scot's Slant

2008 Sep 03 08:59 PM

[killerkaul:]

Cheer up Scotty!.................. right here beside you....... running with the Big Blue Dog.

2008 Sep 04 11:16 AM

[SA Editor M...:]

163888 has not been banned. He/she is alive, well, and commenting on other blogs.

2008 Sep 09 07:06 PM