Google Chrome Can Catch Firefox in Two Years - Lehman

Does Google’s new Chrome browser matter? Some people think it does. One of them is Lehman Brothers analyst Douglas Anmuth. In a note sent out on Tuesday, he predicted that Chrome would soon catch up to Firefox in market share:

With Firefox having gained approximately 20% percent market share over the past 4 years, we believe Google Chrome could gain 15-20% share within 2 years.

A lot of the attention so far has been on the possibility of Chrome being a Windows killer (by supercharging Web browsing and Web apps so you really won’t need desktop apps). But Chrome’s bigger opportunity might be on mobile devices running Android. Anmuth writes:

Chrome’s biggest benefit, however, could come on mobile devices if Google bundles Chrome into Android and gains distribution on other devices. We believe the simplicity and open-source nature of Chrome is well-suited to the mobile environment.

Both Chrome and the Android browser are based on WebKit and Google Gears. So they are very compatible. And Google Gears can be very useful for Web apps on mobile devices, where network connections can be spotty.

Put Chrome on all of those anticipated Android phones, and catching up to Firefox will become that much easier.

Original post

Comments

[neutrino23:]

It's a stretch to say this is a windows killer. Certainly it adds few bricks to the swimmer. Will this replace Firefox or will Chrome and Firefox and Safari combine to eat at IE's mindshare?

It is interesting that Chrome shares the same underpinnings as Safari. Nokia is also using this same code.

I think the Android based phones will not fail in the market but they will not be as big as some pundits are hoping for. The idea of a an open source phone is a niche product. Perhaps they will give Nokia a run for their money in the low cost market.

2008 Sep 03 02:06 PM

[Tom B:]

" It's a stretch to say this is a Windows killer."

Hard to see a web browser hurting MSFT more than Ballmer has.

Seriously, as if XP wasn't dreadful enough, 5 years later, you get Vista, which gives NEW MEANING to dreadful. And it's still not UNIX-- expect ANOTHER 10 years to make that transition, if they've even started.

2008 Sep 03 02:20 PM