intrade Market: Will Palin Be Withdrawn as VP Candidate?

Below is the chart for the brand-new market on whether Sarah Palin’s vice-presidential nomination will be withdrawn:

You can see the complete page at intrade here.

If you think that Palin will be John McCain’s running mate, then you would sell and pocket the difference as the market settles to zero. If you think that she will be replaced, then you would buy and pocket the difference when the market goes to $1.00

So right now this market’s conviction is that there is about a 15% chance for this event. To see what I mean, check out the chart of the market for Palin’s nomination:

As the chart shows, the nomination came out of left field but those who had bought made a lot of money!

Although many call these markets “prediction” markets, they aren’t crystal balls that perfectly foretell the future. They simply reflect all available information at a specific point in time. For example, check out what they were saying during the Democratic and Republican nomination process for president.

The Iowa Electronic Market is another well-known “prediction market”. You can see the graph of the presidential race here.

Comments

[MarvinMBA:]

I suppose this type of betting is productive for the few winners, but this is NOT economics and has little value to anyone but a gambler....is this legitimate gambling? I think I would have more fun in Vegas where you can relax... play a little... eat a little and at low cost too.

2008 Sep 03 05:23 PM

[buyitcheap:]

This is the stupidest post I've seen thus far on SA. Let's go with the market. There are a million sites for politics. I like SA because its informative with respect to the capital markets. No more of this crap. Please. And in the interest of full disclosure, the author should state that he's an Obama supporter or whoever. I support Ron Paul.

2008 Sep 03 07:21 PM

[Jimmy Lathrop:]

I'll trade Tom Brady and Tony Romo for Adrian Peterson! CHAMPIONSHIP!

The secret to making money on intrade can be found in the last minute of the South Park episode "Guitar Hero" which can be downloaded on ComedyCentral.com or youtube. Knock yourselves out.

2008 Sep 03 08:42 PM

[Politickr:]

This contract is a screaming short...I'm a political day trader and a journalist who is tracking political prediction markets. If you're interested in learning more, check it out - politickr.blogspot.com...

2008 Sep 04 11:42 AM

[notsosmart:]

vegas or the market? its become the same(almost) thing.you lose slower in the market & nobody brings you a drink.

2008 Sep 04 01:27 PM

[DaveW:]

After Palin's A+ address to the RNC last night, this is a very poor bet.

2008 Sep 04 03:30 PM