Friday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets

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That wraps it up for us this week other than our usual Friday night podcast. The idea that the Treasury [you and me] need to take over trillions in mortgage securities is an amazing notion. Nevertheless, you can’t dismiss the idea since no doubt the matter is being studied.

I’m gonna go find that bar and have a few belts myself.

All things considered, have a great weekend!

Disclaimer: Among other issues the ETF Digest maintains long or short positions in: UWM, IWM, QQQQ, QLD, IVE, XLY, IEF, TLT, UUP, FXE, DRR, GLD, DBC, DEE, EFA, EFU, EEM, EEV, and FXI.

Comments

[gabe borens...:]

Yesterday's sell off is just a reflection of a psychological inestment"dissarray".T... great and unexpected GDP data was ignored some weaker data was utilized as an excuse for a sell off .Untill month ago we have heard that the U.S was in recession and the market had adjusted accordingly.The reality isthat the U.S is in the moderate expansion mode on the way to a major rebound.The volatility will continue as a part of a bottoming process as the both weaker and stronger data is digested by the diversity of investors.One thing for sure ,the market bears are always looking for the excuse..
If it is not the crude then it is the agencies or......?
Let's just relax,the August is the universal vacation month .
It is curious that for all of the negative hysteria the FED appears relatively comfortable with the current status quo.
The market had discounted the worst economic scenario
and the major rebound lies ahead.

2008 Sep 05 07:15 AM

[SA Guest:]

Excellent as always – You cite Bond Daddy Bill Gross and Clown in Chief Cramer in the same article – yesterday those two were on CNBC together in a veritable mutual admiration society – but it gets better, in Pimco’s monthly commentary Gross reveals he’s a big fan of Cramer … Not to be cynical but could Bond Daddy being employing the use of a Clown to further a bail-out agenda of which he would be a huge beneficiary??

www.cnbc.com/id/158402...

www.pimco.com/LeftNav/...

2008 Sep 05 07:33 AM

[keithpiccir...:]

Nice to get "fried" after yesterday's baking - sweltering perspective.

2008 Sep 05 07:39 AM

[David White:]

I actually commented a week or so ago that the VIX looked like it my stage another rally to 30 or more. Both its chart, and the large amount of negative news seemed to dictate that. Correlating the VIX chart with the SPY chart and the DJIA charts' recent historical behavior versus the VIX leads one to believe that the SPY might drop 17 points or more and the DJIA might drop 1800 from their recent highs. The major support for the SPY in that approximate area is at about 111. Obviously history does nto have to exactly repeat itself. Still this does seem to be something we should keep in mind. I saw a news blurb indicating GS thought the bottom might be around 107 on the SPY.

The charts would also tend to indicate that the market does not go straight down. With the big drop yesterday, it seems likely the market will begin a mild rally today or early next week before it drops again. Of course, this view is based mostly on technical analysis of the charts. Still the banking news has been bad of late. The Bank of China now seems to be in trouble also. This is not good news for the world economy.

2008 Sep 05 07:45 AM

[David White:]

You shouldn't be too hard on Cramer. He sticks his neck out a lot. It's inevitable that he is going to be wrong soem of the time. He says a lot of good things. He also says repeatedly that his show is primarily about educating people about the markets. I think he does that, even if he badly wrong some times. He does repeatedly tell people to do their own homework.

Also it is important to keep in mind that he is usually advising people with a long term view of the market. I think there are a lot of stocks that are likely near their long term lows right now, even if the broader market goes down further. Some of Cramer's advice about buying now could turn out to be excellent advice over the long term.

2008 Sep 05 07:51 AM

[kkin365:]

What low is GLD testing?

2008 Sep 05 09:30 AM

[sieraromero:]

Please note that all of the markets are hitting new lows at the same time of the GOP convention. This shows that they will keep the course following the disatrous GOP platform indicative of the Bush/Cheney regime that has completly sucked most of the life out of this countries lower and middle classes.

2008 Sep 05 10:43 AM

[David Fry:]

"He sticks his neck out a lot". Yep. One guy with bells, whistles, horns and a big mouth makes several thousand buy/sell recommendations then cherry picks the winners from the lot.

Education? It's a "show".

2008 Sep 05 11:02 AM

[David White:]

He does cherry pick winners. However, he did clearly have his four horsemen a year ago that really did do quite well.

2008 Sep 05 11:06 AM

[David White:]

Another notable Cramer call was to get rid of Garmin at the right time. A lot of people were following this. He has been recommending it for a long time. He said to get rid of it by Christmas. He was about as right as it was possible to be.

2008 Sep 05 11:12 AM

[David White:]

I think I am noticing a connection between the Euro/US Dollar and POT. When the Euro goes up relative to the US Dollar, POT also seems to go up, and when the Euro goes down vs. the US Dollar POT seems to go down. I am wondering if some brokerage firm or firms are doing some kind of arbitrage on this????

2008 Sep 05 11:17 AM

[User 145883:]

GS sees SPY 107? Great, now I know the market will rebound. Great GS call on that crude at 200!

What a joke they are.

2008 Sep 05 11:35 AM

[Winston Smi...:]

Hey Fry-guy,
Keep truth coming. Clearly this David White fellow has already drank the the kool-aid. It's too late to save him. And speaking of drinking the kool-aid... ol' "sieraromero" is a lunatic. Thanks for making the rest of us more idiotic be reading your post, sieraromero.

2008 Sep 05 11:42 AM

[dc1:]

Thanks again. Great quote from T.J. Love the comments.

2008 Sep 05 11:51 AM

[ain't no fo...:]

Great post sieraromero... the RNC is now filling the boards here with more of their hate filled socialist-marxist terrorism garbage every time they mention Barack Obama, because they're terrified the We the People understand what they are in denial about... that George W. McCain is nothing but 4 more years of destruction of our American way of life and Constitutional freedoms.

2008 Sep 05 12:12 PM

[Donaldo:]

Er... wpdragon,
Y'ever heard about the lesser evil being the adult fact of life in a general election? 4 more years of destruction by McCain? 4 new years of UTTER destruction by Obama sound better?

2008 Sep 05 02:21 PM

[OldLimey:]

Great stuff Mr. Fry. What with a reference to the McCoys a couple of weeks back and a quote from Dylan today, I'm guessing your target demographic has grey (or no) hair!

Comment on XLI yesterday and today about not making stuff any more goes to the heart of the problem that both the US and the UK have created for themselves. I was walking down a shopping street on the edge of a (still - just about) fairly prosperous English county town today. It's a traditional 'High Street' - no malls, and probably as such soon to become a UNESCO World Heritage site. Of around 30 businesses 5 were coffee shops, 7 were banks or building societies (i.e., thrifts), 6 were estate agents (i.e., realtors), 3 were supermarkets (selling a bit of British stuff, but mostly produce from the other side of the world), and 4 were clothes stores (selling stuff made anywhere but Britain). Doesn't auger well.

Of course, we're world leaders in financial products (sic)!! I know it's small potatoes compared to the US, but until the credit crunch hit there were over 15,000 different mortgage 'products' on the market here. Now there are 'only' 5,000 and apparently that's the end of the world. Is it me....?

2008 Sep 05 02:46 PM

[David Fry:]

Old Limey, the hair is white now. Or, I'm told with the right products, fashionably silver.

2008 Sep 05 04:07 PM