Seeking Alpha
About this author:

I like living green just as much as anyone, so we can all work together to save the earth to be livable longer for us and our children children's.

My stock scan this week is a green publicly traded company. This week's scan has come up with an excellent low risk high reward potential, trade setup on a solar energy equipment manufacturer.

Diversified energy investments these days are a must in this current market environment. I see continued good growth intermediate and long term on the alternative energy industry, and this solar energy stock.

Buy Long: First Solar (FSLR)

Buy Entry: 237 to 213.12

Stop-Loss: 8% more or less depending upon on your risk appetite.

Take Profit Areas:

  • 272.96 to 290.94
  • 361.79 to 408.47
  • 458.23 to 517.35
  • 585.83 to 661.42

Solar Energy Demand Analysis

Worldwide photovoltaic installations increased by 2,826 mega-watts in 2007, up from 1,744 MW installed during 2006. In 1985, annual solar installation demand was only 21 Megawatts.

Cumulative solar energy production accounts for less than 0.01% of total Global Primary Energy demand.

Solar Energy demand has grown at about 30% per annum over the past 15 years compared to hydrocarbon energy demand that typically grows between 0-2% per annum.

The "Feed-in Law" has led to Germany to become the largest solar energy market in the world currently.

On the supply side, the amount of product manufactured by PV cell manufacturers worldwide reached a consolidated 3,436 megawatts in 2007.

Solar Energy (photovoltaic) prices have declined on average 4% per annum over the past 15 years. Progressive increase in conversion efficiencies and manufacturing economies of scale are the underlying drivers.

A residential solar energy system typically costs about $8-10 per Watt. Where government incentive programs exist, together with lower prices secured through volume purchases, installed costs as low as $3-4 watt - or some 10-12 cents per kilowatt hour can be achieved. Without incentive programs, solar energy costs (in an average sunny climate) range between 22 to 40 cents a kWh for very large PV systems.

First Solar Company Profile from their website.

By enabling clean, renewable electricity at lower costs, First Solar is providing a sustainable alternative to conventional energy sources.

This goal has driven First Solar to become one of the fastest growing manufacturers of solar modules in the world. First Solar FS Series 2 PV Modules represent the latest advancements in solar module technology, and are rapidly driving the cost of solar electricity to rates comparable with traditional fossil fuel-based energy sources.

First Solar was formed in 1999 and launched production of commercial products in 2002. It  has achieved the lowest manufacturing cost per watt in the industry, $1.14/watt for the first quarter of 2008.

First Solar is the largest manufacturer of thin film solar modules, having expanded manufacturing capacity to an expected 495 MW in 2008; and with additional plants under construction, First Solar will bring total expected capacity to more than 1 GW by the end of 2009.

First Solar has long term module supply contracts in place with leading solar project developers for more than 3.4 gigawatts of PV modules (2008 - 2012).

First Solar developed the first pre-funded module collection and recycling program in the PV industry.

First Solar's IPO took place on November 17, 2006; Common stock is traded on the NASDAQ Stock Market under the symbol FSLR.

Disclosure: Long FSLR.

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This article has 26 comments:

  •  
    What are FSLRs installed costs, and what is the payback time, what is the total return over the life of the system, and how do these compare to STP and SPWR? All of this other stuff may matter to traders but not to long term investors.
    2008 Sep 08 10:14 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    I'm paying 14 cents/kwh right now and live in a state that does not incentivize solar purchases by individuals. Why should I buy solar power right now?
    2008 Sep 08 11:53 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Michael,

    First Solar does not do the residential market at all.

    They only do big commercial systems where the relatively high labor cost of setting up the panels etc is allocated over a large number of panels and thus the overall installed system cost for the customer, on a per watt basis, is compellingly low.... sometimes so low that even without any subsidies the installed system may be capable of achieving grid parity.
    2008 Sep 08 12:15 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    This is going to require a lot of real estate or roof tops to install PV to achieve just one percent of total electricity consumption .... Want ten percent, aw,c'mon!
    2008 Sep 08 12:59 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Come to think of that, solar modules will need to be squeegied every week or so. Will there be enough workers to do that over squares and squares miles of solar mmodlues???? Maintenance costs will be very high and it was all forgotten in the calculation of cost per watt...
    2008 Sep 08 01:00 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Gumby, panels aren't that finicky. Maybe once a year for a scrubbing and once a month for a hose for dust, max. Now if you are stupid enough to put them under sap dripping tree that birds love, then you might be right.
    2008 Sep 08 01:21 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    first solar is the absolute worst solar to buy - and i've been happily short since $270. it still has a P/E of 50-100. its panels are made out of toxic metals. sales growth is slowing while margins are declining. other (private, start-up) thin-film makers are winning huge contracts. silicon prices are falling. insiders are selling. there is no reason to be long FSLR right now.

    check out my website.
    2008 Sep 08 01:45 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    IVE liked first solar since they went public but now there are newer techboligys hitting the market that use nano technoligy snd they convert twice as much of the suns energyto electric and it cost is 99 cents per watt and they have the abillity to make these cells as fast as they print newspapaers and the vacume enviroment is not required in the manufacturing Nano solar
    2008 Sep 08 03:51 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    i rather see spending money on GM and Ford to help them build far more efficient cars than to spend money to make home living more efficient. We can wear themral underwear and sweaters and wash them every two days so they will be warmer to wear due to body moisture build up after too long usage without washing. We can do a lot of tinkering at home to save energy while we cannot do much with our cars. We are spending money at wrong places .
    2008 Sep 09 03:39 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    wayfarer
    it is not up to you to decide. Techinicians will determine how often to wash solar modlues as instruments will clearly tell them that the outputs are falling five percent than normal. Pollen , dust, etc can build up a power robbing film on solar modules practically overnight!! Hey i have a feeling that your home needs a good dusting , dont you think? wipe your eyes..
    2008 Sep 09 03:43 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Have anyone ever heard of Stirling engines?? It runs on sunlight reflected by mirrors in a rotating dish like a radar tracking the sun. Each dish can yield 35 kilowatt a hour. and can be massproduced for $75,000 or so. This is much cheaper than solar modlues per watt. and it is much more compact than solar modlues if you include the cost of land or rooftop ... The guy with the smallest solar device will win. The race has just begun like you saw with Intel and AMD racing for 30 years and stil racing like idiots!!
    2008 Sep 09 03:48 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Direct sunlight into thermal power is the most efficient solar device of all.. Sunlight into photovoltaic is not most efficient or most performance based at all. Photovoltaics is great for portability like for hermits out in the caves... You can have your own homebrew solar energy for free, how? Just open your stupid window shades where sunlight can shine thorugh then close them at sunset. You are getting about one kilowatt hour for free... If there is any trees blocking the sunlight to your window, chop the friggin' tree down!
    2008 Sep 09 03:52 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Sunlight is only captured up to 20% by photovoltaics that costs too much to make and install. Sunlight is best for shining direct at your home if it means converting your rooftop into a glass top! This will do wonder for you !
    2008 Sep 09 03:53 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Put a few boulders in your homes to soak up the sunlight and they will release the heat like solar cinders during the night. 4 ton boulders anyone? will deliver in two days.
    2008 Sep 09 03:54 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    I have an invention or new concept of solar energy that I am presently using for myself. I will not share my idea with any of you. it rocks!! I am a happy dude!
    2008 Sep 09 03:56 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    There is nothing like my new concept . nothing at all!! It is so simple you will never believe what you are seeing... you will not be interested as well because you want to peddle inferior solar crap and collect dividends ..
    2008 Sep 09 03:57 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    So I buy FSLR at say $210 and after I lose 8%, I sell it. Can I come to you and ask for my money back?

    Don't give me a best case scenario without a worst case scenario.
    2008 Sep 09 09:31 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    First Solar alone is still worth more than Peabody Coal the biggest coal miner in the world that supply 10% of American electricity. First Solar has not begun supplying .0001% of American electricity. We dont buy up Peabody stock because coal is dirty. Peabody need to develop CleanCoal technology, but it is still doubtful about cost ...
    2008 Sep 09 10:15 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    gumby is indeed correct.. No houses should be built that don't use solar energy as a primary source. Ilive in frigid wyoming and My sunroom heats the rest of the house 5 months a year. I added a batch heater made from 200' of black poly pipe to heat my well water this year and have seen temps as high as 138 degrees feeding to my inside water heater. 40000 lbs of concrete holds the heat nicely for days even if the sun don't shine!
    2008 Sep 09 12:59 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    FSLR is in knife mode.

    Solar should be the way to go even if it doesn't cover all of your energy needs.

    Why should the panels be only on rooftops, why not on window shades? Surely something like Ribbon Tech would allow even the most frugal buyer to install a single panel or two, to reduce energy costs.
    2008 Sep 09 02:33 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    What bloggers do the best is to get you suckers to keep feeding cash into the bear market while it bopped up and down, down up an ddown down up and down down... Bloggers are so pathetic !!
    2008 Sep 09 03:23 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Falling oil prices will do irreparable damage to the Green Movement but it will reverse the dreadful Global Climate Change or Global Warming . We will all be driving around in beetles ... What is needed is special beetles for Big & Tall Men. I recalled watching pitiful 350 lb men squeezed into Luv pickups back in the 70's.!! OOhhh pooor them!!
    2008 Sep 09 03:26 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    We built SUVs and PickUps primarily for 350 lb dykes and ape men who need comfort driving. How pathetic!
    2008 Sep 09 03:27 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    We can build 50 mpg cars tailored for Big & Tall Dykes as well..
    2008 Sep 09 03:28 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    A small car packed with 4 350 lb Dykes can stop an used SUV in its track and smoking..
    2008 Sep 09 03:29 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    First Solar is getting there & NANOSOLAR IS THERE ALREADY.Go to NANOSOLAR's website nanosolar.com & see what's going on with this up & coming company.Take away the big subsidy's from the oil companies & solar would be a far better cost saving choice.
    2008 Sep 10 03:05 PM | Link | Reply