Apple: Major Bounce or Major Breakdown?

The chart says it all: A major bounce or major breakdown is coming. Not to mention, it has the "Let's Rock" event scheduled for today, where everyone is expecting new iPods will be unveiled.

Typically, Apple (AAPL) has been a "sell the news" type of stock. We'll see what happens today. Either way, an opportunity - either long or short - is setting up in this name. Watch the $155 level.

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Disclosure: None

Comments

[Andy Zaky:]

If this is a sell the news type of company, where's the buying of the rumor? Its not a sell on the news, but rather a manipulative sell-off caused by shifting focus away form anything but the "news." If anything, Apple's a sell the rumor, sell the news type of company. They sell the rumor because they know that the market will manipulate the stock any time good news comes out.

Ex.
1. 3G iPhone = Focus on Jobs Health
2. Earnings = Focus on Jobs' Health
3. Lets Rock Event = Focus on Jobs' Health

As a matter of fact, any time good news is pending, the market chooses to focus on Jobs' health. Jobs' health has now been brought up on 5 separate occasions as if its new news.

1. 3G iPhone Release
2. Earnings
3. 2-weeks after Earnigns
4. Bloomberg Obituary
5. Let's Rock Event

How much do you want to bet that Jobs' health will be brought up again on October earnings?

So, your characterization while good in theory is fatal in fact. There's no selling on the news, because there's no buying on the rumor for people to sell on the news. Sell on the news occurs because those who bought into the rumor, sell or take profits once the news actually hits. But there's no one taking positions ahead of this event. In fact, Apple is down $14 since it announced the event last tuesday. Its down every day.

Hence, you're sell the news characterization is misleading at best.

2008 Sep 09 06:51 AM

[thomasfxlt:]

I have to agree with the first poster. Apples fundamentals are strong. They have a strong cash position. Steve Jobs could leave today and it would take years for the company to derail (which it won't do).

To all you greedy, manipulative and morally bankrupt jerks on Wall Street, your day will come!

2008 Sep 09 07:17 AM

[Fedman:]

You forgot to mention that the stock could drift sideways for a while.

Andy Zack raised some good points to which I will add, "you've got to know what you own." I think that this is a huge momentin Apple's evolution as it is now a realistic alternative to MSFT on so many levels. People talk about the iPhone halo effect and the ability to run MSFT on a mac, but what i see as the real catalyst is that a generation that has been brought up with a high percent of mac usage is entering the workforce and making IT decisions. I feel there is an additional grass roots movement within businesses that is bringing it into the workplace from the bottom up.

Will apple pull back to $120 or go to $180 and when, i don't know, but the future looks bright and that's the only way I can play this stock.

2008 Sep 09 07:48 AM

[mbonfa2:]

Good points Andy. My best idea I can come with is if Steve comes out on stage to unveil the new iPod in a fat suit... real healthy like.

2008 Sep 09 08:21 AM

[VERONICA:]

Many absolutely amazing companies get the shaft because of what I'm about to say, and Apple is one of the most prominent victims...

When a company is doing great, has enormous popularity, has people standing in line to buy their products and an absolute rainbow of future opportunity, their stock tends to stay pricey and not have sufficient fluctuation to attract heavy buy / sell activity.

SO... UNLIKE a long investor, the entire short sell community, every Wall St. Brokerage and virtually every financial media reporting entity needs "churn" (and the subsequent "news") generated by fluctuation to make commissions off of.

Ergo, a little negative news, a few pot shots, a few bad words at the Wall Street water cooler, a couple of nasty little asides to some institutional groups & whaddaya get?

SWING!!

Good old commission-gathering market SWING and loads of trashy news to report!

Thanks for listening.

VERONICA

2008 Sep 09 08:38 AM

[mollytjm:]

i agree...Apple may seem to outsiders like it's Steve Jobs but in fact, Apple is now Apple. There are thousands of really brilliant people there and several visionaries who have differed with Jobs and been right..and they LOVE the company. This is a great company and will be there in the long run.
the 'friends of Bill' do a lot of stock manipulations through negative rumors and i'd bet the farm that the 'accidental' obit release, wasn't.

but those of us with Apple stock have one thing going for us when the stock isn't going up...great product experiences! Microsoft and Dell only wish they had Apple's problems.

2008 Sep 09 08:56 AM

[brewer:]

Comments are better than the 'article'.

2008 Sep 09 08:59 AM

[squawk:]

Agree with prior comments. If anything, AAPL is not a "sell on news" stock but rather "sell on rumor." At least, that's been my experience. Hence, the author's article cannot be given much credence.

2008 Sep 09 10:05 AM

[Constable Odo:]

Steve Jobs health articles will continue on and on until Steve Jobs eventually dies 20 years from now. Meanwhile the share price will never pass $180 for the next 20 years. The media sucks and nothing much can be done about it. Since when is being thin a crime. I guess they think he's Karen Carpenter or something.

2008 Sep 09 10:46 AM

[Billy Staples:]

I look back over the past 6-9 months of my AAPL trading / investing (not sure which yet!) and after reading all your comments, I realized 1 very important item. I have been trying to out think and maneuver a stock! An inanimate object that deems itself a quality of actual life, thought, planned moves and even emotions, such as revenge and gloat. Remember when I told you in your head not to by at 182, just because the new iphone was coming out? It was too much too soon, now look where you are...you didn't listen to me.

reminds me of that old(er) TV commercial, you didn't listen to mother nature.

OK, as though I am taking a bit of a smack across the knuckles with a ruler lately in the Apple school. How hard is it for anyone to write a story, someone with a tiny bit more knowledge than I, but use a little flavor, touch of humor, not all zany and wacky and make ot a different kind of read. after pouring through all the analyst reports and balance sheets that I say I do everyday, it would be a bright spot on semi-gloss paper for a little something different now and than.

Speaking of different, how about good AApl news today time to go finish today's 'Us and them' spot for thedarksize.com The hidden from your site web site for fear of burnt retinas on the top left of this article response; or below my name..or where it says website. ahh heck if you want to find it you will. you will, yes you will

I have been

2008 Sep 09 11:09 AM