Russia: Now vs. 1998

With another 7% decline today, many are comparing the current crash in Russia to the one that happened back in 1998.  While a decline of 44% over 80 trading days is pretty dramatic, Russian equity markets still have a long way to go to match the losses seen from 10/97 to 10/98.  During the Russian debt crisis, its main equity index, the Russian Trading System, fell 93% over a one-year period.

click to enlarge

Comments

[Alex Filonov:]

44% in two months can easily transform into 93% in a year... All depends on Russian government right now and it doesn't behave sane.

2008 Sep 09 06:30 PM

[Eagle-Chief:]

You men are men of few words........

2008 Sep 10 01:26 AM

[notsosmart:]

has anyone ever figured out how much russia defaulted on since ww1.get this #,adjust for inflation & you will see what you are dealing with.im not smart enough.to do this.

2008 Sep 10 09:46 AM

[Vanderpool:]

I am shorting RSX big time. My perspective is that oil is going to keep going down ($75/barrel) and that the Russians have oil but don't have an economy. Therefore where oil goes so goes the RSX.
I am also pessimistic in the short term about surrounding 3rd world economies (Overheated and inflation prone). Hence I expect less trade for Russia. And lest I forget, Russia's BAD behavior (Invading Georgia) just puts the cherry on the cream. Short Russia - Make some dough!

2008 Sep 10 03:30 PM

[Urbane Gori...:]

Hmmmmm ... Maybe it's the US's 'bad behavior' that has lead to our own market collapse too.... Hmmmmm .... jegan ;-)

2008 Sep 10 03:41 PM

[milkchaser:]

Only 44% (so far). I feel so much better. Add to Vanderpool's list the insecurity of property over there (i.e. what Putin wants he takes, e.g. BP and Mechel).

2008 Sep 10 03:42 PM

[johnboyltd:]

Investing in Russia is like investing in Venezuala!

2008 Sep 10 05:59 PM

[mkreisel:]

Russia chronically trashes individual property rights.

What's new?

2008 Sep 13 06:20 PM