Vegas Home Sales Are Up 93.4% Y/Y [Housing Tracker]

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House Price/Sales Data

Annual Coldwell Banker Home Price Comparison Index Finds $1.7 Million Difference between Nation's Most Expensive and Affordable Housing Markets. “In the 2008 Coldwell Banker Home Price Comparison Index… an annual comparison of similar homes in 315 U.S. markets, La Jolla topped the chart as the most expensive real estate market in the nation with a $1,841,667 average home price… [In] Sioux City, Iowa, the most affordable real estate market in America, a similar home would cost $133,459… Eight out of ten of the country's most expensive housing markets are in California, and eight Midwestern cities make the list of the nation's 10 most affordable home markets. The HPCI… [compares] similar 2,200-sf, four-bedroom, two-and-a-half bath homes in 315 markets across the U.S.” (MarketWatch, Sept. 9) 

Greenwich Ranks As The Second Most Expensive Real Estate Market. “HCPI Connecticut results: The most expensive markets in Connecticut were Greenwich with an average of $1,787,000, Fairfield with an average of $679,250 and Old Lyme with an average of $571,250. Danbury had an average home price of $549,250 followed by Milford with $467,475, and West Hartford with $394,500. Westchester County ranked among the most expensive markets in New York. Katonah reported an average of $888,750 and Rye reported an average of $860,000… The cumulative average sales price of the four-bedroom homes surveyed in HCPI’s 315 U.S. markets is $403,738, a 4.4% decline from the $422,343 reported in the 2007 Coldwell Banker study.” (Norwalk Plus, Sept. 9) 

America's Most Expensive Waterfront Cities. [In] La Jolla, Santa Monica, and Santa Barbara, all in California… even a modest-sized bungalow or apartment means shelling out $1.85 million, $1.65M or $1.6M, respectively. Of course, that doesn't mean the Atlantic side of the country is cheap. A similar-sized house in Key West, Fla.? $818,239. And that's in a state where prices elsewhere seem to know no bottom. A two-bedroom in Boston, perhaps in the Back Bay or near the harbor? $1.5M.” (Forbes, Sept. 9) 

Fed Takeover May Not Change Home Prices Much.  “Ken Rosen, chairman of the Fisher Center for Real Estate and Urban Economics at UC Berkeley: Moderately lower interest rates on new mortgages could make refinancing and purchasing more affordable for solid credit borrowers who can qualify for the type of loans that Fannie and Freddie buy and back. The [Fannie, Freddie] takeover, however, generally won't mean money is more readily available for distressed homeowners on the brink of foreclosure, nor will it provide any real assurance for those holding off on purchases for fear values will continue to fall.” (San Francisco Chronicle, Sept. 9)

Median Home Prices Tick Up In July. “Integrated Asset Services LLC July Home Price Index report: Median prices of single family homes rose 0.9% in July from June, but they’re still down year-over-year by 11.4%... The index, (not seasonally adjusted), tracks monthly changes in median home sale prices of single family homes in 360 counties, nine census divisions, four regions and the nation overall… In the Midwest median prices rose 3.1% in July, and are only down 0.4% y/o/y… [In] the Northeast, prices ticked up 1.6%, but declined 6.1% from July 2007… New York saw the biggest gain, rising 3.8% from June. The Chicago area saw median prices tick up 2.9% on average.” (Investment News, Sept. 9)

August Average Home Sale Prices Dip 5 Percent In King County. “Seattle, Washington Northwest Multiple Listing Service: The average price of a King County home sale dipped to $477,877 last month, down nearly 5% from July’s $502,500 level. The median selling price dropped to $388,350 in August from $401,500 in July. In August 2007, the median home selling price in King County was $415,500. King County pending sales are down more than 22% compared with August 2007, with experts blaming tighter credit as one of the culprits.” (Puget Sound Business Journal, Sept. 9)

NAR Drops Expectations For Home Sales, Prices. National Association of Realtors: Total sales of resale homes this year [should] drop 11.4% compared to 2007 and the median price of resale homes to fall 7% -- both projections are down from an earlier forecast. The association is calling for 5.01 million sales of resale homes this year, compared with 5.65 million in 2007 and 6.48 million in 2006… Last month, the association anticipated that sales of resale homes would drop 8.9% and resale prices would fall 5.6% this year compared to last year. And a month earlier, NAR was projecting that sales of resale homes would fall 6% this year compared to 2007.” (Inman News, Sept. 9)

U.S. Pending Home Resales Decline More Than Forecast.  “NAR: The index of pending home resales fell 3.2% after a revised 5.8% gain in June. The decline is the fourth this year as tighter credit conditions keep would-be buyers from taking advantage of lower prices. Thirty-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged 6.29% in July, up from an average of 5.81% in H1’08.” (Bloomberg, Sept. 9)

Real Estate Bust Hits Long Island Economy Hard. NY: “A few more than 26,000 homes were sold on Long Island in 2007, compared to more than 40,000 in 2005. Median prices fell…  2007 sales generated $16.4 billion, compared to $22.4B in 2005 - a 27% decline… The 26,000 homes currently for sale on the Long Island Multiple Listing Service are on the market for a median price that's $40,000 less than a year ago in Suffolk County, and $50,000 less in Nassau County. Closings [are] down 17% from a year ago… It would take 19 months in Suffolk County and 15 months in Nassau County to sell all the homes on the market at the current sales pace.” (Newsday, Sept. 9)

Home Prices Across PA Tumble, Study Finds. “Keystone Research Center: Home prices in the commonwealth and in 15 of its 16 metropolitan areas are falling… Inflation-adjusted home prices in Pennsylvania fell by almost 7%  between Q2’07 and Q2’08…. Home prices have now fallen for three straight quarters, and are now lower than their levels in Q2’05. Nationally, over the same period, the decline in home prices was 9.5%.” (MarketWatch, Sept. 9) 

Downvalley Home Prices Going Up. Aspen, Colorado: “The median price of a single-family home in the lower Roaring Fork Valley continues to rise. The median price of a home in Carbondale is $629,900, and it’s $470,000 in Glenwood Springs, based on sales data through July 2008. Median home prices in Garfield County continue to reflect an increase over last year… Land Title Guarantee Co.: Garfield County’s median home price, year-to-date, of $379,000 was 79% higher than the national median home price of $212,000. Garfield County’s median price reflects a 5% increase over 2007. NAR: The national median home price, YTD, reflects a decrease of 7% from 2007.” (Aspen Times, Sept. 9) 

Home Prices Slide As Sales Activity Stays Steady. “The Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors said 2,545 single-family homes were sold in August, which is up 93.4% compared to a year ago. The number of sales was down slightly from July -- less than 2% -- ending a seven-month streak of increasing home sales in the Las Vegas area… But the median price of single-family homes sold by a Realtor last month was $210,000. That's down from $220,000 in July -- and down 30% from August 2007… The median list price of single-family homes last month was $225,000, meaning sellers got about 93% of their asking price.” (Las Vegas Sun, Sept. 9) 

Asking Prices Resume Downward Trend; Summer’s Glow Gone? “Research firm Altos Research and market analysis specialist Real IQ: Asking home prices resumed their downward trending in August, portending the end of a likely small seasonal bump in prices. The data, an early indicator of actual selling prices, suggests that sellers are again dropping their asking prices after a few months of some markets seeing month-to-month increases. Prices of properties listed for-sale fell in 20 of the 25 major MSAs tracked in the report; a 10-City composite asking price index showed a drop of 1.5% in August relative to July’s total, and is down 2.3% over the past three months.” (Housing Wire, Sept. 5) 

Meet The Nouveaux Neighbors. “NAR: The largest proportion of foreign buyers of U.S. homes from May 2007 to May 2008 -- 24% -- were Canadian, double the percentage a year earlier. Most Canadian buyers head for the Sunbelt, with Florida accounting for a third of all of their purchases. The Realtor group estimates there were 7,200 Canadian buyers of Florida homes in the period covered by the report, more than double the 3,500 a year earlier. In some Florida resort communities, so many Quebec residents have bought second homes that French is now commonly spoken.” (WSJ, Sept. 5)

Toll Brothers "Scared" About NYC Condo Market. “CEO Bob Toll: Toll Brothers (TOL) will soon open a 12-story plus penthouse condominium project in Manhattan's Murray Hill neighborhood. Demand in New York is more price sensitive today, although demand is still strong. It is the financial industry that tends to spend on condos.  "If we sense any slowdown, we'll take the money and run, instead of hanging around and waiting. Nearby Hoboken and Jersey City, New Jersey, are still "doing well" for Toll, he said.” (Reuters, Sept. 4)

                                

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Comments

[billddrummer:]

Hi Judy,

Excellent reporting, as always. Thanks!

The Las Vegas market appears to have reached a crossroads of sorts. Sales are up substantially over last year, and inventory appears to be stabilizing relative to sales volume. And while there's still a 9-month supply of homes on the market, it's a much better inventory picture than the 11 month supply of a year ago.

Look for trends like these to start to appear in other bubble areas. Tom Lindmark, who posts here regularly, has noted more than once that the Phoenix market is showing signs of life. It's only a matter of time before FL and CA start to revive.

But just in case anyone's wondering, the controls in place that are limiting mortgage availability won't push home prices up rapidly again. Since ability to pay (and that means documented ability to pay) is paramount for lenders, don't look for exotic mortgage products to bridge the affordability gap. I think the markets will closely hew to median household income for communities. If you're earning more than the median, you have more choices. If you're earning less, rent.

2008 Sep 10 07:32 PM