Calling a Bottom: It's Time To Party 43 comments
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I’m making a bold statement here: We’ve turned a corner. The Worst is over. Our evidence?
1. The Fannie (FNM) and Freddie (FRE) issue was always odd because, for as long as I can remember, there was an implicit guarantee that was unquestioned in all ways. It was a bullet point on every presentation about agency debt. It was a sub–bullet point on every presentation about agency M.B.S. Well, if Fannie and Freddie were always meant to be supported by the government, then why would people doubt that was the case? If the government guarntee was always presupposed, why doubt it? Well, finally, the common sense statement that everyone doubted has been made explicit–which shouldn’t have needed to happen. However, I would claim, when you start doubting the obvious it’s a sign of a bottom. Especially now that the doubt has been quashed and the market is back to “pricing to reality.”
2. Lehman is resolved. As the rumors and estimates piled up, Lehman has gotten crushed. Clearly this firm was the last big unknown as it dominated the news constantly. We knew every gyration and hiccup of the Korean Development Bank and their flirting and courtship with Lehman. Amazing. Well, with their announcement today, we know their losses, their plans for selling stakes in their businesses, and the extent of their real estate woes. Coupled with the mortgage market recovering slightly and stabilizing (see #1 above) the losses from mark to market aren’t likely to spiral far from here.
So, with these two very recent events, it seems reasonable to assume we’re out of the woods… I’ll be bold and predict, then, that the reasonable assumption matches reality.
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This article has 43 comments:
MER, WB, WM, C, and that's just for starters.
Jobs situation dismal.
Housing continues to decay.
Credit crunch = less to spending consumer.
And you say that we have reached the bottom now that Lehman's got crushed?
Think again.
Is this post subtle satire? If you seriously believe that the bottom has been reached, the real John Thain must have put you back on his payroll.
If this is as good as your more recent forecasts, at your new job, we can safely assume someone has left the door unlocked at the home. Be good and go back before someone mistakes you for a real person.
Honest....
Let's party... just like back in 1999..... Geez.... not again...
What do you base your reply on? Show me something, anything that will support your stand...Just stay away from TWO VERY LARGE Financial companies who are on the brink of oblivion...when will the dominos stop falling, if you have a insite into the future that is not full of BOBBLE HEADED YADA YADA...Please enlighten me...Thanks iamdlogan...
hahahahahahaha Have you been watching Cramer?
and again. HA
I predict that Canada will invade Russia and start NOPEC.
Any other anonymous ridiculous guesses out there?
This far, we haven't yet heard anything about how FNM&FRE situation raped bank balance sheets...or the bond insurers. Just wait.
What I'm afraid of is that the contagion will reach us too.
But of course, all of our experts say, "NO WAY...WE'RE NOT THE USA!"
Any opinions out there for me??
On Sep 11 01:41 PM notsosmart wrote:
> well the bottom has a lot of paper to wipe it.
That will be the next leg down. AIG will take longer.
born on pessimism,
grow on scepticism,
mature on optimism,
and die on euphoria"
Sir John Templeton
born on pessimism,
grow on scepticism,
mature on optimism,
and die on euphoria"
Sir John Templeton
Everyone should calm down and realize that I haven't called a bottom. Go to my original post, the title was: "Bold Statement: Time to Start Partying" ... Meant to be a bit sarcastic. SeekingAlpha re-wrote the headline, as they usually do. I'm just saying that we've turned a corner, most of the uncertainty and irrationality in the markets has been taken out. So, if it gets *much* worse, then I'm wrong. If another firm blows up, sending the market into a tizzy, I'm wrong. Otherwise, if volatility comes down, investor confidence returns, etc. then I'm not totally wrong. Low bar, eh? Wish I would have seen this sooner to set the record straight.
-DJT
Are You WRONG YET!
Just talk, just speeches...Just more BS some someone who looks into the center of a storm and sees pretty clouds...this is insane...guys like you are the ones who have extended this bubble of BS. This is my last post on this column, I'll go where the reasoning is... instead of the *$^@)#%)&@%)@)&...
Until American public company execs can no longer walk away with a fortune as the companies die in their wake, our bubbles will continue to increase exponentially until the entire market collapses under the weight of fraud, deceit, and greed.
I have a mental picture of what's happening for each of these financial companies. Bruce Willis is the exec walking away, grimy with the filth of greed and fraud, smirking as the company's assets blow up behind him. He kisses his new trophy wife, boards the plush Leer jet, and flies off to his new tropical island bought with stock options worth paper millions from off-book accounting techniques.
Until the penalties are a deterrent, the Enron's, FNM, FRE, LEH's, WAMU's, etc. of the public company world will continue.
I say if an exec is in charge within 5 years of a company's implosion, regardless of proven fault, hang 'em at the closing bell on MSNBC. Only take a couple to eliminate the fraud for a long, long time.
BUY GOLD AND SILVER AND THEIR RELATED ASSETS YOU WILL MAKE A FORTUNE