Seeking Alpha

Sirius XM Dips Beneath $1: Will the Street Give It Any More Time? 115 comments

by: Tyler Savery September 11, 2008 | about: SIRI    
About this author:

The stock price of Sirius XM Radio (SIRI) has hit levels below $1.00, indicating yet another downturn in the equity. Analysts have begun to weigh in on Sirius XM, and while most have maintained their price targets and outlooks, the pessimism on the street continues to weigh heavily on the stock.

Tuesday we highlighted the opinions of CITI and Goldman Sachs, and Wednesday J.P. Morgan, RBC and Stifel added their two cents to the pool.

Barton Crockett of J.P. Morgan concentrates on the financing that will be due in February of 2009. He feels that the company cash reserves will not be able to simply buy out the debt and that Sirius XM will have to test the challenging credit markets. Crockett maintains a “Neutral” rating on Sirius XM radio, and highlights the debt, as well as cautioning that the OEM and retail channels are weak.

Also adding his opinion was David Bank of RBC Capital. Bank is still pegging Sirius XM as Sector Perform with a $2.00 target, but seems cautious, pointing out the weak auto market, weak retail, and the refinancing overhang. The analyst also commented about the lack of long term “visibility” on satellite radio.

Kit Spring of Stifel had a bit of a scary edge to his report Wednesday. While he maintained a “Buy” rating on the stock, he adjusted his price target by 33%, taking it from $3 to $2. Spring says that company guidance was negative, and adjusted subscribers and financials down for 2008 and 2009. The scary part for investors is that Spring noted a downside potential of “ZERO” if the company is unable to get the some of their debt refinanced. Spring does feel that the company should be able to obtain financing, but the debt overhang seems to be a heavy weight on the stock.

Clearly current prices have people scratching their heads and wondering what the best position is. SIRI for under a dollar seems like a bargain to some, but others still see more of a haircut in the cards. What everyone needs to understand is that SIRI is a speculative stock. There are issues that the company has to deal with, and an economy that breeds pessimism. Each investor needs to consider many factors, and their own trading style before jumping in or getting out. This company needs time. The question is whether the street is willing to give it to them. Should the company announce a resolution to their debt issues, the biggest overhang can be removed from the stock.

Position - Long SIRI

Related Articles
Print this article with comments

This article has 115 comments:

  •  
    You have to be crazy to still own this stock. We have been waiting for everything that has been posted here to occur, and it has, and look at where we are now. The posters on here said when the stock was $2.20, don't give in to the shorts, then again at $1.50, then at 1.30, and so on. The DOJ, the merger, and finally our savior Mel have done nothing but cause the downward spiral. The only issue now is that with huge losses, how do I get my tax savings? At a limit of $3000 per years deduction, it is going to take me many many years to recoup that. Any good ideas this time?
    2008 Sep 11 08:42 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    talk about losing money!!! I own 66,000 shares bought at 2.88 and I was an idiot to listen to cramer and all of the other experts that said this stock would go through the roof. I should have sold when it hit 3.20 but like other fools like me I was waiting as cramer put it the lottery ticket to come in. why is Mel not comming out and giving shareholders some kind of positive news when this stock started tanking this past week. I am going to give it a couple more weeks and then run
    2008 Sep 11 09:22 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    cramerhater - They (whoever they are) are taking it down to nothing.
    2008 Sep 11 09:25 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    well the problem is to figure out how they are going to deal with the debt due to be paid off by early next year, no one has a clear answer yet.
    2008 Sep 11 09:42 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Just about everyday you publish another Sirius article that says why they're so good or why they represent such a great value, yet you still fail to see the real issues. For someone who is tracking this company so closely, it's surprising that you don't have a better understanding of what's driving it's performance. You can talk about NFL deals or Mel's little pep talks or about how this is speculative but could be a bargain, but you never address the valuation. Instead of saying Sirius is under a buck, you should be saying Sirius' stock and debt is worth X. It's easy to trade under a buck when you have this many shares outstanding. Even at these levels the enterprise value for the companies is still ridiculously overvalued. Why not write an article that compares Sirius to other industries and looks at the metrics between this stock and others and then answer the question of which is more expensive. Do yourself a favor and pick the stocks before running the numbers or we'll just see you cherry pick more data to support your crazy assertions that there is value here. The reason why people are so concern with the debt is because of the sheer size of it compared to their real market opportunity. I've never been long or short, but could tell early on that this was a hype job from the beginning. Until people go back to the basics, you'll continue to see value erosion as the market figures this out. Mel knew that this was a problem too, so he created an arbitrage opportunity while they tried to work out their business model. Now that the opportunity is gone, you are continuing to see Sirius return to a more rationale valuation. If Sirius was a small cap start up without any debt your articles might be appropriate, but instead of focusing on every little micro detail like it's going to make you rich, you should instead be addressing the question of what it's VALUATION is worth compared to their peers.
    2008 Sep 11 09:49 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    The answer to dealing with the debt is simple - *aggressively* get new subscribers. Mel seems to have no idea how to do that. By hanging the fate of satellite radio to the moribund domestic auto industry, he's condemning the industry to failure. When Mel seemed to dismiss things like partnering with Apple that was the last straw. Let's just ignore the whole mobile media market as an avenue for new subscribers and pretend everyone lives in the NY metro area and spends an hour and a half commuting to and from work. Probably time for the shareholders to demand some new leadership.
    2008 Sep 11 09:49 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Cramerhater, no joy here on your loss. That's a lot of money to lose. You should seek some professional advice, especially from a tax attorney if you do decide to sell.
    2008 Sep 11 09:50 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    I'm disappointed in Sirius CEO, Mel Karmazan. He needs to get original. I need a way to reach him, because I think that I have four ideas to ramp Sirius profits. Someone, please get this to him. 1. Go Global Agressively. Get this product into Japan, Europe, China. 2. To use your words, your ads suck. Get a cool person, like Michael Phelps, to brand this product as an American product. 3. Develop a cooler radio. Develop a radio that puts advertisements on the screen of the radio instead of on the air waves. That way you get ad revenue, but don't mess with the sound. Get a radio that has the ability to personalize it. Like Build a Bear. How about Build a Satellite Radio. I'd like to see BIG DAWG flashing accross my radio with a pic of a Georgia Bulldog player on it. I'd pay big money for that. 4. Get an ipod app and share profits with Apple. Clear Channel is doing it with the Zune. Mel, quit having a pity party and get your &^%$ to work on originality.
    2008 Sep 11 09:52 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    The stock will go under 50 cents by 11!
    2008 Sep 11 09:53 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    User, some of those ideas have merit, but who will lend them the money to make those changes? If they could borrow easily, they wouldn't be in this crisis
    2008 Sep 11 09:58 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    I agree it is hard to find someone to lend you money when you have no game plan. The only way to get money is to have an original idea and positive headlines. Unlike what Mel said in the conference call, the headlines DO matter now a days, like it or not. I don't, but lets get with the times.
    2008 Sep 11 10:02 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    the debt should be traded for stock and some cash. tell the bond holders its that or nothing. Mel is trimming expenses (expect them to cut staff in half) while the merger doubles revenues (standard merger practice). this is like the bear raids in the Gould era (1870's) let hype drive it down. buy it on the cheap, reissue stock to raise cash, buy out the debt for pennies on the dollar. make the balance sheet look pretty then do a reverse stock split to get the price over $5 dollars a share.
    2008 Sep 11 10:46 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    if they traded the debt for stock (what cash?) the shares you own would be worth something on the order of 1/1000 of what they are now.
    2008 Sep 11 10:55 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    There problem, as I see it, is two fold. 1. You both have hit on the debt aspect. But 2. they need some revenue generating ideas FAST FIRE put into action to pay the debt. They need to be working around the freaking clock to get some money into this company. Quick work will pay off. If the company were to develop an idea that could generate subscribers/new products and thus money fast, then were looking at a change in the growth picture (as opposed to 1 million additional subscribers for the whole 2009.). A change in the conservative growth forecast will encourage lending as well as increase the stock price. Otherwise, they will be bankrupt.
    2008 Sep 11 11:45 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    In other words, give me something to be excited about Mel. These radios that you have could be so much cooler and generate you some interest and revenue. Get with Apple to get a cool application on the IPOD to get Sirius on the IPOD. Compete man, compete!
    2008 Sep 11 11:56 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    It's all hype, hope you don't play with your own money. The bondholders own the company right now, not the common. They'll tell Mel what to do, not the reverse.
    2008 Sep 11 11:59 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    The only issue was the merger approval. Then it was how they would pay for the merger. Now its how are they going to pay off the debt for 09. All these things are not new news. Very old news in fact. Brilliant play by Mel in the conference call and you all fell for it. Hes basically destroying the SP,(understating guidance by a possible 10-20 percent is huge amount)..bad speech intentionally. Hes smarter than you and I remember that. He did the impossible already. Look at the revenue hes generated since he started. Look at the deals they have signed. Now they bought their ONLY competitor in the industry with YOUR money and spared the company the burden. Ill take the hit for smart company play like that. Now hes basically given the bond holders no choice. See , were going to 0 possibly, now you will listen to MY deals. Stock no longer has value to be used as capital raising. Bonds wont want to open a short at these levels to backstop the new bond convertibles, so they wont use that option. They will get straight financing or risk losing all their money. Stock value can no longer be liquidated to pay debt, you have basically in a sad way won. They want to get paid, so a bank will give them the cash at a flat interest rate. You see the bank thats going to loan them the money is getting paid extra for it. You see they bought Sirius stock at .90 cents, know its going up(they know because the financing is already done of course, just not implemented yet). Sirius isnt going to not presolve their debt. Its dumb stockholders like you that allowed Sirius to be in such a position of power. Thanks and I'll send you my postcard from the beach. If SIrius stock was at 2-4, they would demand stock to open shorts again, or simply sell stock to pay for the merger, futher diluting it, but they obviously cant do that now. Theres no more dilution possible if its under $1.
    2008 Sep 11 12:00 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    i agree that the stock would be diluted. it's wall street. do you know how many companies are trading at high values yet have negative net worth. Look at GM. They like Sirius have negative working capital. Hedges is absolutly correct in the marketing end, however, we as a nation have to start thinking that these stock investments should return a modest growth of 10% share value a year instead of the instant gratification that the news shows amplify.
    2008 Sep 11 12:02 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Let me try to explain it to you another way.
    I owe a guy $1000. I have no money but my business is doing well and has a bright future. Having a little cash flow problem at this point in time only. Now, I go up to the guy who loaned me money, and go hey, give me $10 bucks more or im going under and you get nothing. You therefore have 2 choices. You either give them the money, risk losing 10 more dollars, or you dont, and risk losing 1000. DAAAHHH. Ok, but your company is a gold mine in the future. Ok, then buy some stock at .90 cents, I'll help you get it there. Kind of like you dont fire an employee that owes money on an advance. After they pay it off, then you fire them, not before. Now he would have to go get another job, and come pay you back at a later date. You think all those bondholders want to go to court to find out what pennies on the dollar some random judge is going to give them? I dont think so. The would rather just extend the bonds, or a bank that holds the bonds will give them what they need, knowing its THEIR best option.
    2008 Sep 11 12:06 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    So the bottom line is, since three Seeking Alpha article writiers, Gina, Brandon, and Tyler cant write an intelligent article, and just cheerlead, and talk negatively when the stock drops and not offer real advice or real solutions or real information, then they should cease their writings. There bad information and believing the "market" and realizing it isnt manipulation(all stocks are manipulated to some degree, illegally by the letter of the law by the way) then they are doing you a disservice. Focus on the why, not that what. Hey Sirius stock droppped today. Really, why? Well cause of debt concerns and lowered guidance. Naa, cant be possible be the reason, thats old news. Lowered guidance is a wall street tactic used by many companies. Understating guidance is called "pulling an Apple". So learn the game your in, or stop writing please.
    2008 Sep 11 12:10 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    wouldn't you convert the bonds to stock and dilute it more now? Eliminating the the interest and debt services on the bonds increases the cashflow and bottom line for company. Stick to the bond holders who are the mutual fund houses.
    2008 Sep 11 12:14 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Imnotjimcramer, read my above posts. Your dumb and wrong. The bondholders are owned by Sirius right now. They get nothing if they default. Sirius will be telling them what they will give them. There shorts are owned by the bank, not the bondholders. GS repackaged those bonds and sold at a crappy 2. something percent interest. Real bondholders arent holding shorts(some of them may be on a personal side, but the banks are using the shares to reshort every tick, and thats illegal.) The banks are shorting the stock, not the bondholders. Bondholders short once, at a price, and it affects the stock at that second. This constant reshorting every tick up is a manipulation tactic to drive the price down to accumulate shares cheap. OMG, do you people not know how wall street works? Its done daily, to a hundred different companies, a hundred different times a years. The same stock is pumped and dumped monthly at times. See LEHMAN brothers. SEE MERRIL LYNCH. ETC>>> ETC>>>> DDDDDAHHHHHHHHHHHHH. You people shouldnt be investing in a spec if you dont understand the market. Stick to blue chips and buy on dips, you might do better than having a weak hand on a spec. #1 rule of a spec stock is to never buy more shares than you can afford to lose, and NEVER sell till the stock performs. You ride it to bankrupcy if you have too. Sirius isnt going their but they want you to think it might right now so you sell. You see there are too many common stockholders who would make a lot of money, they cant have that, thats the banks money, not yours. No easy clear cut moves are allowed in this market. Look what they are doing to oil and gold and food stocks. Do you really think(every year they tell you its over) that this is the year high comoddity prices are over? They said last year it was over. They said 150 dollar oil, then plunged it to 100. Thats Goldman Sachs for you. Typical bank manipulation. I remember the Fast MOney guys in May, right before the tank calling for 200 oil, buy oil stocks, buy this stock. Since that show aired, the stocks have plummeted. Now they say stay out. No dummy, now you buy, and you sell when the Blues Brothers music is blarring and the Fast Money guys go on location in a big hall to sucker millions into buying the big moneys shares that they are selling. You see, if all of wall street is in on it, who would buy high? Exactly, Wall Street makes money off you, they are not in business to make you money. You see, if you make money, someone loses money. If they put all their clients in winners, who are the losers? So when Wall Street is tanking a stock, as a seemingly universal opinion, you can rest assured its going the exact opposite direction soon. Remember when all the anyalists and the main stream media were talking great things? You see, the analyists have to maintain their positions, to some degree, or risk losing legitimacy. Stock target downgrades are in order now sure, but there bullish calls remain, but weaker. When they switch to sell, which I cant wait for, Im really pissed they have kept it as a buy so long, it will go up, and not a day before.
    Stocks dont make big jumps usually unless they are on neutral, or sell. Unless they are permant buy rating stocks, like MSFT, etc.... Basically the more speculative the stock, they more they use buy and sell ratings to manipulate perceptions.
    2008 Sep 11 12:23 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    I saw mention of this and I agree, they have to get this thing global. I had a visitor from England in my car and he thought it was the most amazing thing ever, especially when I turned on BBC for him. People are carrying iPods all over the world, they need to be driing with Sirius on the dash as well. My ex was from Serbia and all her younger brother wanted was rap music, anything we could send him. Imagine how thrilled he would be to just turn on Sirius and chose from 5 rap channels.

    There is a huge market for this product out there. Its the reason I countinue to buy more stock daily. Average down while its cheap people.
    2008 Sep 11 12:37 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    so stick it to the bondholders and buy the stock on the cheap. you have a better chance of making money here than at a casino
    2008 Sep 11 12:54 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Relmor,

    Thanks for the insight. You make more sense than anyone here.

    Can you explain WHO wins if the stock does go to $0 and the company does go bankrupt?
    2008 Sep 11 01:23 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    I know stocks. I own stocks. I have made and lost money on stocks. The ones that I made money on had good innovative ideas, were fiercely competitive, and utilized the news to their advantage. The ones that I lost money on had stagnant crybaby management that did not innovate or use the news. Stock prices are typically a reflection of the momentum of a company. When momentum and growth increases so does the price, but if momentum goes South, so does the price. Mel owns and continues to buy Sirius down. There is no other explanation for the stock going down than the "lets continue to do it the same ole way" mentality that Sirius has now that theyre merged. They need to cut the heck out of expenses now, use the money generated from the expense cuts to go global now, get with Apple before Clear Channel gets FM radio on the IPOD now, and get cooler ads and radios now. Don't tell me what happened in the past. Tell me what is your company going to do in the future. I'm investing in the future.
    2008 Sep 11 01:34 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Relmor, since you understand all this so well, I guess you sold your shares at about $2.50, before the merger closed, and are ready to buy back in now? lol The holders of the company's debt own the company. They don't get nothing if the company goes bankrupt, they get EVERYTHING! The satellites, the radio shows, the sports broadcasts, the rights to everything belong to the holders of secured debt. Nothing will belong to the common sharholders! Of course you are right about the manipulation, but just a week or so ago you were all blaming it on Jim Cramer. Still think he's the guy responsible? Go back and read all of your posts from a week or more ago. Now there is somebody else in charge of THE CONSPIRACY, maybe even Mel himself!
    2008 Sep 11 01:54 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Oh, the contruction industry guys have a term for this. "The second guy in makes money" In other words, after the smoke clears and the creditors take possession, the real money starts to flow.
    2008 Sep 11 01:58 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    It takes a lot of people to tank a sure thing, yes. They all need to be coordinated. When the stock goes to 0, a judge will divide assets, or a buyer will attempt to be found. The stockholders get nothing, and the bondholders get pennies on the dollar. There cash on hand is a joke to outstanding debt. So there you go, the last thing the bondholders want ARE CONTRACTS OF TALENT THAT HAS NO MEDIUM, NO DOLT!!!
    2008 Sep 11 01:58 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    excuse me, you dolt!! lol
    2008 Sep 11 01:59 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    I would never blame Cramer, hes not powerfiul enough. Hes just a small part. I blame him for doing his part yes. Why is this so hard to understand. From June to the merger close, Cramer said 0 about this stock. As far as anyone knew he was still bullish. Then post merger, SELL SELL SELL. When prior merger he said BUY BUY BUY. Do you want me to find the tape for you? Or can u just think back 2 months.
    2008 Sep 11 02:01 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Oh you are absolutely correct about Cramer not knowing what he was talking about. Which is why that no one large enough to infuence the price of the stock ever cared what he said. There is a guy either on this board or another who talked about owning 66,00 shares of stock which he bought after watching Cramer. That is so sad that someone would expend over a $150,000 on the advice of an entertainment host. I feel very bad for him. But consider that huge investment for that individual did absolutely nothing for or against the stock price.

    So if an exclusive right to broadcast the Howard Stern show is worth nothing, why did Mel pay so much to obtain it? All of this content has a very good value, and will continue to make somebody money, just not the current shareholders of common stock!
    2008 Sep 11 02:10 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    This isnt the construction industry. Maybe you havent noticed.
    Theres also a saying"Do the opposite of Wall Street sentiment" If they are down on a stock for a long period of time, then its for a reason. If they like a stock for a long period, they are setting up to sell it to you, as it tanks. Do I need to show you the cover of Time magazine right before the dot.com bubble burst? Do you know how bull runs even work? Do you know by the time the common man hears about a good story, its too late? What common man would invest in Sirius right now? After the beating its taken, id gather not many. As buying dry out, and the selling abates, then it will be time to move the stock up. Volitility is the only way investments can make money. They must go up, and down. When it goes up, you need to already be in. It wont send you an email...."Hey all sirius stockholders, tomorrows going to be one of those 10 percent up days, so get in now!!!."
    2008 Sep 11 02:10 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    excuse the above mistake, he bought 66,000 shares!
    2008 Sep 11 02:10 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    hey relmor, good post's, i had the same thought yesterday about them locateing a good bank,bringing the stock lower, the bank loads up on the stock cheap, and then gives them a good loan,the good news soars the stock up ,the bank profits off their own good loan news.
    is that what you meant?
    2008 Sep 11 02:12 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    If there is manipulation, then how does that get addressed? For the common share holder who actually believes in the company and it product where is the protection if any. This is what long dragged out law suites stem from. Unethical dealings and there seems to be some signs pointing in that direction. But I guess because wall street is all about greed well then it o-kay. (Question) for anybody with kids if you see them jumping of a bridge is it o-kay because everybody else is doing it? Probably not and just because greed is a somewhat accepted idea or practice with wall street it not an open license to screw with the stock. But this debate will go on and on and on and I guess when it comes down to it God will eventually be the final judge. It's sad because good business should be about wowing and satisfying the customer, but our new standard is just good enough because it's sometimes cost too much to do it the other way.


    On Sep 11 01:54 PM I'm not Jim Cramer wrote:

    > Relmor, since you understand all this so well, I guess you sold your
    > shares at about $2.50, before the merger closed, and are ready to
    > buy back in now? lol The holders of the company's debt own the
    > company. They don't get nothing if the company goes bankrupt, they
    > get EVERYTHING! The satellites, the radio shows, the sports broadcasts,
    > the rights to everything belong to the holders of secured debt.
    > Nothing will belong to the common sharholders! Of course you are
    > right about the manipulation, but just a week or so ago you were
    > all blaming it on Jim Cramer. Still think he's the guy responsible?
    > Go back and read all of your posts from a week or more ago. Now
    > there is somebody else in charge of THE CONSPIRACY, maybe even Mel
    > himself!
    2008 Sep 11 02:12 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Relmor, I don't need a 10% day; I and you and many of the other shareholders need a 300% day. lol
    2008 Sep 11 02:13 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Cramer is not to blame for a company's downfall. Cramer would still be saying buy if the companies, instead of having fingers crossed about merger approval, were actually doing something to better their company. Cramer, as well as other brilliant stock minds, know that a company, especially a tech, has to have a catalyst. Sat radio needs a catalyst, other than saving 400 mil in synergies to have to pay 1.2 bill in debt financing. They need a new catalyst to generate the bucks to bridge them to the point of autos ramping from the rate cuts and restructuring of Fannie and Freddie. When autos ramp, so will sat radio sales. Guess what, they sell autos overseas too. Guess what, people overseas like sat radio whenever they hear it. Guess what, a freaking teddie bear company can charge 30 bucks for a built bear, if Siri got a radio that you could make cool, you could charge 500 bucks for it instead of the crappy radios that they only charge 30 bucks for. Catalysts. That's what they need for revenue to pay off the loans coming due next year. Time flies. Wall Street is telling you that it is in the 4th quarter of the game and you are losing. Instead of forfeiting, get to work on winning. Go Dawgs, Dessimate the Gamecocks.
    2008 Sep 11 02:14 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    I remember every word Cramer said,and I remember the day of the merger approval he said NOTHING. I also remember him on Howard Stern lambasting the DOJ and the FCC and saying what a winner this was. Cramer is a joke. The only good thing that comes from Cramer is he teaches newbies that the most important thing is do you homework.

    If you dont think Cramer has an impact on price, think again. But wait for the irony here....the same people he tells to do their homework are too lazy because we Americans expect things to be easy, so they just go out and do what Cramer says the night before.
    2008 Sep 11 02:18 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    You have NO recourse for manipulation. Let me explain why. The gold market is experiencing right now its factual largest manipulation in the increase in shorts in history, FROM JUST 3 BANKS!!. Those three banks wrote enough paper silver contracts for an ENTIRE YEAR OF SUPPLY. The COMEX knows its impossible to fill if needed, and their margin losses if it went against them bad, WOULD HAVE BANKRUPTED GOLDMAN SACHS AND MORGAN STANLEY. So yes, its obvious they knew it wouldnt , for they could write bogus contracts at any time to stem the flow. The only thing keeping the game from continuing is drying up of supply because of dropping the price too low below REAL market value. The government endorses this practise (illegal practise). So if you have recourse it wont come from the SEC or anyone else in government. To admit to that level of manipulation would bring down the shell game that is the american stock market,and they cant have that. You should privately sue the bank who is shorting. If you get a good lawyer, and someone who knows how to win a case like that, and you spend a ton of upfront money, in 5 years you may get a decision in your favor. Good luck. The only thing we can do is not fall for the game, and hold till at least Q1 of 2009, and even better Q2 of 2010.
    The current stockholders will loan sirius the money before they let a stupid thing as cash flow stop this jaggernaut. So go learn some basic financing tactics, and how the markets work. The last company that went out of business was a bank, cause the government didnt have them on their list of banks we will allow to survive. Sirius is in control of wether they survive, buy strangleholding the bondholders into agreeing to their terms.

    Yes holdon, that is what I meant. Its common in the fianancing game. You see, banks shouldnt be allowed to invest in stocks, and this kind of bs wouldnt happen.
    2008 Sep 11 02:21 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Between the hedges, I agree with you 100%. My Sportster is 2.5 years old. The button lights are all out and I have had to replace the antennae twice and now the one from the boombox that I barely use needs replaced. I have been waiting for the merger to buy new equipment and will do so hopefully 1Q09. And yes, the quility needs to improve.
    2008 Sep 11 02:26 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Bro, we aren't talking about manipulation here. Pull up Yahoo Finance and in the left collumn look at their reported balance sheet. They are cash flow negative. The new company has over one bill of debt coming due. They are only generating 400 mill in synergy. They are estimating (under their current model) only 1 mill new customers for 2009. 1 mill x $13 / month x 12 = 156 mill. 556 mill is not going to cut it when you have over 1 bill in debt coming due and you are losing money otherwise. You have to generate more revenue.
    2008 Sep 11 02:30 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Thanks Got SIRI. I hope Mel is listening!!! We need to reach out to him. He seems like a down to earth guy that will listen to good ideas to get his company out of the crack its in.
    2008 Sep 11 02:32 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    We arent talking about manipulation? So the debt issues of Sirius were unveiled only AFTER the merger huh. You can lie to people on here, I wont allow any more lies from trolls. The debt is manageable otherwise they wouldnt have made it solo, which EVERYONE was saying was very possible. Combined everyone says THERE DONE!!! Ok dude, whatever. XM maybe was done, yes, but even that Im not so sure about. When XM took on that debt they reported it, just live every other company does, etc.. There was no mystery here, only if the FCC would allow it to merge. Now that they are merged, banks would much rather lend to a monopoly, than a competing entity of an industry that sourly needs only one company. Banks would have lent them them money probably ANYWAY. Now that they are saving an additional 425 million a year, they feel much better. And those new subs are low, WAY LOW. I will laugh Q1 of 2009, and Q1 of 2010, all the way to the bank, probably the same bank that loaned Sirius some cash to break out. They bought in today, did you?
    2008 Sep 11 02:48 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Po, GS isnt manipulating the stock to be right, they gave that price target to justify the drop. Actually that was if the merger DIDNT GO through, his merged price target is still 1.75. So they were wrong too. I meant no MEANINGFUL recourse, short term, no. I gave that example to show you the scale of manipulation that is possible, and thats right in the open. Sirius stockholders have no chance for recourse, but I suppose it wouldnt hurt to try. If enough people complained, you might get something. Probably take a ton of insitutional investors to complain. Dont worry, they arent happy either. Apollo group up there stakes in the millions of shares recently at a much higher price, same with many mutual funds, and institutions.

    Ok guys here is my favorite excuse used to justify why GS buys shares of Sirius, and holds a sell rating and a low price target. Quote: See this is too good to be made up, its a direct quote"Goldman is UNDERWEIGHT SATRD. LOL LOL LOL LOL Thats like saying there underweight banana companies. SATRD is not an industry, its a media company. Does everyone on here know that Clear Channel took their stock off the exhange and went private the week of Sirius's approval? Because they knew the company would KILL them. They tried to stop the merger because they know what it would do. Get a clue everyone. Its the future, like satellite TV. Both industries struggled, and had to have a 3rd company come in and clean up because Dish and some other company werent allowed to merge. Sirius and XM were, wow what a break!! Advanced the industries ability to generate a profit YEARS ahead of schedule.
    2008 Sep 11 02:58 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    I wouldnt doubt if Direct TV is still trying to turn a profit. Anyone know their balance sheet? Media companies are rarely these days very profitable. Only the ones who have you pay for their services have a chance now. Free media sucks, and the market knows that. Why CCC is no longer being traded, they didnt want to see their stock hit $1 like Sirius, lol.
    2008 Sep 11 03:00 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    ImnotJimcramer response:
    Ad in New York Times:
    For sale: 1 satellite for distribution of radio signal.
    1 Howard Stern contract for right to his show.

    If Sirius were to go under, and couldnt find a buyer, no your a troll and a 100 percent lyer!!!! Contracts are meaningless, and the hardware too. No VALUE!!! Its a dead company. If GM went under, whos going to buy the engineering plans for the 2010 GMC Truck? No buyers remember.
    2008 Sep 11 03:07 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    relmor - how many shares does GS own?
    2008 Sep 11 03:10 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Relmor, I thought you actually has something going on upstairs, but were only stubborn about sirius. Your last post is a puzzle. Of course everything depends on how the contracts were written, and Stern may in fact be a free agent in the case of bankruptcy. Absent contractual language to the contrary, all the "content" rights owned by Sirius would be assets for distribution. The hardware would be very valuable, to a company that didn't have to take the huge debt to go along with it.
    2008 Sep 11 03:28 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    What happens when Howard Stern doesn't resign with SIRIUS?
    2008 Sep 11 03:43 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    anyway.... I believe GS owns about $3mil worth of SiriXM.... to put Relmor's conspiracy theory into perspective:

    Each year, GS's ~250-300 Managing Directors make $3-5mil in bonus each. This "conspiracy" is not even a topic of conversation.
    2008 Sep 11 03:43 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    relmor , is correct about Clear channer going private , I had mentioned it also

    Clear Channel Hires Goldman, Sachs to Evaluate Strategies

    here is the link
    www.mediabuyerplanner..../

    So there you have it. can you see the connection now ?

    Sirius XM has strong base, subscribers are growing every day, and they own space and space has no limit, they can use their satellites to go GLOBAL, all this fuss about financing is not new, it gets worst before it gets better.
    2008 Sep 11 03:52 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    I wonder if Mel realizes that most of the common share holders are also the biggest fans of the SIRI product.

    My point is, I really don't care who's responsible, shorts, bond holders, banks, Mel.............if SIRI breaks the heart and bank of the common share holder, I bet the common share holder will retaliate in the only way they can......

    I will cancel my subscription immediately and never look at them or Howard ever again.

    If SIRI goes under, I bet they LOSE 5 million subs the next day!!!!!!!!!!!
    2008 Sep 11 04:20 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    OK, have we seen the bottom now? Let's get this sucker cooking. Yes this is the beginning of a long, slow road up, but it will go up eventually. I can't see how SIRI will get there just yet, but I know they will. Buck up, disgruntled investors, you know satellite radio is a winner.
    2008 Sep 11 04:21 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    As a share holder and subscriber to both XM and SIRI, I agree with VMx. I think that the road up is when autos start to pop. Should be soon as autos are early cycle. SIRI XM is the only way to go. I just want to get it out to the most people possible. I know that this might take some additional debt to accomplish, but a good game plan gets you half way to victory. I think that if the company merely mentioned some of my solutions to revenue growth, their stock would pop. I'm hanging in there and may be stupid, but likely will double down here.
    2008 Sep 11 04:35 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Autos are not going to pop anytime soon. And even if they did, the market for satrad in cars is pretty much saturated. People aren't going to pay for something they listen to less than 20 minutes a day. The company needs to aggressively find new avenues for subscriber growth.
    2008 Sep 11 06:00 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Agreed to company needs to aggressively find new avenues. See earlier post as to my thoughts on how. Disagree that autos won't pop soon. You have to drive to get places and with the clunkers that I see on the road, there are a lot of people going to be looking for cars. Hey, maybe sat rad on scooters?
    2008 Sep 11 06:29 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Here's an interesting question:

    If I'm shorting the stock, what the heck happens if the stock issues a reverse split?

    Does the price I shorted at stay the same, while the stock price has "risen", or do both prices "rise"?
    2008 Sep 11 06:35 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    you have to admit that the city workers are moving from the suburbs back to the city to take public transportation because its cheaper. wont be needing cars that much with price of fuel. thats why all the foreclosures in the suburbs of big cities. They should market it to homeowners to have in the home. Should make a home stereo system to interact with your tv, dvd player/recorder, pc, and all home entertainment systems. All with just a little antenna.
    2008 Sep 11 07:15 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    "risen" meaning revalued.
    2008 Sep 11 07:43 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    You folks who post that this company is going bankrupt make me laugh. You actually present yourselves as though your serious about that ,but you haven't looked at the numbers at all. This stock has more chance of being purchased by private equity at these prices than ever going bankrupt. They haven't defaulted on any payments and, believe it or not, haven't fully diluted their shares.

    The private equity purchase worries me more because they could take the company out for a mere 2.5 - 2.80 a share. With all the fear being generated by the shorts, manipulation and bankruptcy talk bringing the stock down in price, many who bought in at these ridiculous numbers and those at the time of the merge would gladly give their shares up to the dismay of those who have averaged down from say $5 or $6 per share..

    Longs beware, not of bankruptcy but of being fooled by all the BS from folks who only no how to say Debt, Feb 09. Debt in Feb 09. What are they going to do? The debt is 300M in Feb 09 with an extension with the banks on the credit due in May 09. What the banks aren't going to extend the credit, which is not now or ever will be in default? That's right those banks want the company to go bankrupt on the on performing loans that they have in this market. Right?

    We've known about the debt for a long time as Relmor has repeatedly pointed out. The cash on hand was $450 Mil and the Bonds that came with all the bad interest are generating a cushion of $600M. Best of Both on Oct 6 and all those GM/XM non subscribers can now get what they've been waiting for the NFL and that's the Best of Sirius, and thats additional revenue for 4th Qtr. New interoperable radios for the retail market and a really cool portable for the stocking and that's also additional revenue in the retail channel. The debt deal will be announced, probably in October with a 3rd Qtr pre-announcement or early release of the numbers. There isn't going to be a bankruptcy but that's just my Sirius XM Radio Long Position in this company talking and I've put my money where my mouth is. So to the nay sayers and shorts I say: PISS OFF you can't have my shares.
    2008 Sep 11 10:26 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    I love you Cos1000, you use facts and insightful analysis to back up your points, unlike our counterparts who use fake numbers and fear. Im sure they work for GS and are trolls. Or like I said, they sold on a margin call, and you know misery loves company. Dont forget Toyoto for 2009(2010 additions will all have Sirius in them. You now have all major US car purchases in this country have Sirius radio in it. Imagine Direct TV sales if new homes purchased had a one year free when you bought the house, what their sales would do. Too much big money betting on this company making it. If a low ball buyout offer comes in, it would have to be because they couldnt refinance, and there cash on hand didnt cut it. But they still have further dilution possible in a cash flow emergency. It would be very short term however and would quickly be bought back.
    2008 Sep 11 10:46 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Relmor, I hadn't had the time to research the Clear Channel "Merger" with private equity firms Bain Capital Partners and Thomas Lee Partners offering a limited amount of Class A shares to CCMO holders or $36 / share, nice premium, to take the company private. Heres the link to the share holder notice and the timing is uncanny with the Sat Rad Merger.

    www.clearchannel.com/I...
    2008 Sep 11 10:52 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    aclue2u, No disrespect but show me the demographic numbers that are showing you claim to this mass migration because of fuel cost. Think about it. If what you say is true, then what would be the demand for that "City Base" housing, at what expense does that housing now come. Isn't that why they moved to the suburbs in the first place? Cost of Housing vs the Cost of Commuting?

    Second in Europe I have been told that manufacturers are incorporating wireless internet into their equipment for home network pick up. Sirius is now available for $12.95 Internet subscription to these potential customers. It hasn't been marketed very well, or at all, but it does have potential. In the US we tend to drive more while there as you say most are city / home dwellers needing Premium Content.
    2008 Sep 11 11:04 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    siriusly depressed, I feel for you man, but SNAP OUT OF IT. I'd make a horrible psychotherapist. Take a couple of Paxal and call me in the morning. Don't take your ball and go home yet..... this game is just getting started. Hang in there. Your point is well taken with this retail investor and subscriber. Don't let them take your soul.
    2008 Sep 11 11:16 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Alright, I'm done, Good Night All!!!!
    2008 Sep 11 11:17 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    I pretty much see two posters that understand what's happening here--relmor and cos. Anyone here who doesn't understand how Wall Stret works should re-read relmor's comments. What's going on with SIRI right now is a classic--and its not done yet. Anyone thinking about going long now (or adding to your position) should wait a few more weeks when the stock will most likely be down a little more to around .75. It's my opinion that will be the low and it will also be the time when the proverbial foot will be let up off of SIRI's neck.

    Anyone who owns the stock has to realize that the company's stock became a very easy target to be taken out post merger (above and beyond the behind the scenes shorting connected to the financing). There was a bullseye on their back. Believe it, there were many funds just salivating waiting for that deal to go through so they could pounce--knowing full well of the struggles SIRI would have in the aftermath (and that September was just around the corner). Think about how easy this money has been for a major fund: Buying 1 mil shares short @ 1.80 for a mere 1.8 mil about 45-60 days ago and boom, buying back today and there's your cool mil profit. EASY MONEY for those with that capital to move around--of which there are plenty. I must admit, I thought the stock would bottom somewhere around 1.10 if it took out the 1.26 low it was holding for several weeks but as we can see it has broken through even lower. I think some bad timing has helped this to happen such as some huge funds unwinding this week, the Lehman news and just a pessimistic Tech sector overall--not many tech companies HAVE NOT been punished short over the past 10 days--don't think it's just SIRI!!!!. Jeez, if you've been watching Squawk in the AM, you'd think the entire financial world was about to go bankrupt--today was the worst I've seen it. Btw, this is one of tricks of the Wall Street trade--and shows like CNBC help fuel it (and they know what they are doing to help their Wall Street friends). They get so pessimistic that Average Joe traders and investors (mainly traders) feel like their only choice is to jump off the highest building they can find and sell, sell, sell. Sadly, this works like a charm every time. Then, as you will see in a few weeks, suddenly, everything's positive again!!--as if nothing ever happened. Even in the face of continued negative economic news, the glass will once again be half full. As I said, sadly, the average guy's money is long gone back into the 'deep pockets'. People have to remember that once you sell and take the loss, you own the loss--you lost your money. If you don't panic and wait until the storm passes, you will reflate and have your money back as if nothing ever happened because it really didn't (and without you having to add to your pile of 3K yearly Schedule D capital gains deductions)! Wall Street is ALL AN ILLUSION. If you can keep your head and stomach in tact, you can succeed making some money. Most cannot. YOU NEED TIME TO MAKE MONEY on WS! If you can't leave your money tied up for at least 3 - 6 months (or sometimes longer) , you shouldn't be risking your hard earned money--because you are going to lose it! Back to SIRI... if you throw in the recent "after-Labor Day" no news (that Mel said would be good news) and the fact that September is traditionally the WORST month on Wall Street for longs, and here it is, an intraday low of .86 today. Not very surprising all things considered.

    SIRI is back to square 1 where their stock is concerned. They helicpotered around .76 back in the early 2000's--I owned it then. Their trading range was .75 - 1.25 but they would always retrack back down to .75 until Howard and Mel came on board. For those who have the stomach to weather this storm, SIRI will pay off big time. They are WELL-POSITIONED for some great upside. Remember it is NEWS that moves stocks, not necessarily valuation (as one poster wrote), and SIRI is poised to report sevaral bits of good news in the coming months. 2 years from now they are easily a $10.00 stock. XM by itself was a $10 stock and look at their balance sheet/debt. SIRIXM is the radio of choice RIGHT NOW for 50% of all new cars produced in this country and they will only keep expanding overseas. Think of the new car revolution that's coming as we transition to either natural gas, electric or whatever it is going to be. They already own that new market--which is not that far off. As proven content provider, their possibilities there are endless, then there's new partnerships and diversification. So much will be happening for this company that eventually WILL create a respectable valuation. BUT! Anyone owning this stock has to realize it ain't going to all come to fruition tomorrow--or next month! It's going to take a little time. Those with the time will make the money. Those without will lose theirs. Give SIRI the time to get their footing past this merger. Btw, though I commiserate with anyone who has lost on the recent SIRI freefall, if you think about it, it is not uncommon for ANY company to drop a few bucks on their share price when a merger happens or they leverage an acquisition. Why? because it's it's usually expensive in some way for the leveraging company and their balance sheet will take a hit because of it. This is common. And as a result, the Street will punish the buying company for awhile. Once the synergies begin and the reults starting showing, faith is restored and that same company becomes interesting once again. SIRI WILL BE NO DIFFERENT. Short term, the first spike any of us longs will see is when they restructure their Feb '09. When that news hits the wires, look for at least a .50 spike, if not more. There is so much short action on this company right now, it will be a cover-fest. Most likely then the shorts will drive the price up by covering, then re-short right into the move driving it back down--a classic Wall Street tactic. This of course will happen in the next 60 days. After that, as has been said, SIRI this week has purposefully underestimated their 2008 subs. This so when they report over 20 million (which is an important milestone for further upside), AND then revise upward their '09 subs estimate (which is why they said a meager 21M), probably to 22 or 23, that's when the stock will start to get some traction. So sometime in Dec or Jan. Mel knows what he's doing. What he did was smart because he knows the stock was going down to a buck or less this month anyway...when all of Wall Street eyes are on you, and they want to take you down, there IS NO ESCAPE (i.e. Lehman)...so the best move was under estimate the subs now so he can raise guidance when the stock is off the radar a little more and coiled up like a spring a few short months from now--just waiting for some great news (while in the meantime it offers his refi lending institution to load up on a very cheap stock and reap the bennies on the way back up). His goal here is to outsmart those that have taken him out.

    These are strictly my opinions of course but it's pretty easy to see what is up ahead. Hang in there all!!
    2008 Sep 12 12:41 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Everyone................. especially those faint of heart comrades................. Put this article and it's comments from relmor and cos1000, at the top of your Favorites list. Reread it daily, as a hedge against the false fear that the opponents spoken about are wanting you to cultivate. I spit on them and their manipulations. SHORTS.............. Bring on the pain.................I promise you I will set the Big Blue Dog on you before I turn loose of any of my hard fought for shares. It's time............... everyone........... stick together, and run with the Big Blue Dog!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!... Sic Em!!! Long Siri!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!...
    2008 Sep 12 12:45 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    s162 , write a book, i'll be first to buy it!
    2008 Sep 12 01:51 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    click on s162 name, read posts, verrrrrrry informative!
    gives you the "aahaa"!!!
    2008 Sep 12 02:48 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    s162, you are 100% right about certain things. The stock is speculation, not investment, which is why most small investors will get killed in it. Unfortunately, many of the members of this board see it as a religion, and won't sell at the right times. As for all those new car receivers, in about 3 years, look for them to start to be replaced by universal wireless internet receivers. No, Sirius won't have a monopoly on that! Think 8 track players here. In the meantime, you are correct in that sirius is a great trading opportunity, for the fearless and the expert.
    2008 Sep 12 06:58 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Oh, $10 in two years would be an appreciation of 500% a year from here. Ummm, that doesn't happen too often, outside of the commodities trading.
    2008 Sep 12 07:42 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    For those of you that will say it's just like 2003, here's the information.

    "In October 2002, reportedly edging close to bankruptcy, Sirius announced a recapitalization plan that would convert $700 million in debt and $525 million in preferred stock into common stock, with Oppenheimer Global Funds, Blackstone Group LP, and affiliates of Apollo Management LP providing an additional $200 million in cash to keep it afloat. The plan was approved by shareholders the following March, and they also agreed to the issuance of $200 million worth of new stock. Following the reorganization, the total number of shares Sirius had outstanding would balloon from 80 million to nearly 1 billion."

    Oh to go back to those days of ONLY 1 billion shares. lol Unfortunately, Howard Stern and the NFL are already onboard, and so won't be coing to the rescue this time.
    2008 Sep 12 08:01 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Internet provided by what? WIFI? LOL LOL
    Blue tooth? I dont know the names, but i know the speed and relablity is crap to access the net from a car. Satellite is best and fastest way, you wont see them in cars, standard, and if you do it will be for your laptop, not to listen to the radio, troll YOU ARE JIM CRAMER.
    2008 Sep 12 08:34 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Cell phones? LOL They'll never be dependable. They only get signals in some cities, they're big as a brick and drop calls all the time. Satellite is the only way to make truly reliable phone call.
    2008 Sep 12 09:36 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    I'm not Jim Cramer...I hear ya, it's not the early 2000's and thanks for the reprise of the '02 deal. I do also wish SIRI had less than 3B outstanding but I think the stock still has the ability to move pretty well for a few reasons. First, the market makers have one objective, well two really (for those who don't know, MM's control Wall Street and can be viewed in Level Two tables--Traders Nation used to have free acces but I've noticed as of recent it looks like that's gone so one would have to pay somewhere to see them). But one is to get as much (or as little) for each share they're representing, and two is to shake out small investors and take their money through fear. But rather than delving into that more, my point is they would sell their own mothers if it made them money. When there is good or bad news, a frenzy is created between themselves and they fight with each other to get the best price (which is what creates the wild swings on Wall Street (up or down). Yes SIRI already has Howard and the NFL (as they didn't in '02) but what they have now refers to your point--then they were teetering on a BK with very little to grab on to. Today, they have solid history as a proven entity with real sales and viable growth potential. Look at their subscriptions year over year since about '04. They've grown EVERY Q/Y without dropping once. Who knows who they will add to their content roster (Howard isn't the only superstar out there with a huge following). Right now we have a classic overhang of concern going regarding their due debt. As these things start getting adressed (starting with that debt as number one), the shorts will begin unwinding to preserve their gains. With Short Interest Shares being at 310.67M as of 7/28 and 209.12M as of 8/12, they are wound up pretty tight--which as we know is essentially what has killed the stock (in addition to average investors jumping off in droves). A good litmus that shows me the stock will move regardless of the shares out post merger, is about a month back when Mel bought his shares. They closed that day about 1.40 and in after hours, the stock climbed to 1.56 in about 15 minutes due to covering--his buy was at a fixed price and he only bought a few mil shares. I think they opened the next day at about 1.54 (but of course that was sold into right away). I think with probably around 300M short shares currently out there waiting to be covered, we should see some good movement as soon as SIRI starts settling in and making some positive announcements. Let's don't forget SIRI actually had a good last quarter (for them) but the Street ignored it and focused on guidance instead. If anyone here has noticed, that has been the trend the last few Q's for EVERY COMPANY. Recently it's ALL BEEN GUIDANCE and not about the actual numbers. Guidance is always important to the Street but sometimes more than other Q's it is used almost exclusively (like right now). Let's also face it, we're still in a Bear Market and in a time when they are out in a frenzy just pouncing on ANY company that even breathes the wrong way (or selling into any pop--that's just what they do as we know). That's so important for SIRI longs to remember--SIRI's stock problems are also a lot due to the market conditions right now--it is nasty out here! SIRI, like many other companies, will get a little lift when conditions improve over the next few months. Then as they refi the debt and surpass their lowballed numbers they just reported on purpose (and any new deals they might have in the works), the economy starts to improve, and the short interest shares heads back under $150M, we should see some pretty nice pops and the stock normalizing at least back to most price targets around $2...

    As far as the $10... That is a quite a pop but the pendulum swings wild on Wall Street--and as we know this a still considered a spec stock (which swing the farthest). I can't say they will stay exactly there but they should come close to it at some point in the next few years. Wall Street = irrational exuberance. Right now SIRI finds itself at the extreme end (or close) of the negative side of the swing. As it comes to a stop shortly, it will begin it's swing back the other way. SIRI will also get a big pop when the auto industry becomes stable again--sometime next year. SIRI longs have to see that too. SIRI is tied at the hip to Auto. Where is the Auto Industry right now? On a respirator--but as we all know, nowhere near in a casket (keep an eye out for the gov bailout on the near horizon (SIRI will pop on that news). It's just tough times right now. Look at what just happened to Airline. UAUA was being taken OUT! They were down to about 4 bucks in July from 40 in Feb--all airlines were down as oil surged this summer but UA is kind of like a SIRI. They're a company that Wall Street loves to pick out and on because they are so embattled. Suddenly, when oil started selling, the tide changed. UAUA hit $15 last month. Did their balance sheet get any better? Not really...(only in perception). They just had their ass kicked by the shorts and the MM's. Sadly that's just the nature of the beast...
    2008 Sep 12 09:53 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Actually because Content Is King, the NFL, NASCAR, and Howard Stern are going to bring in a whole new market of revenue from XM OEM's with the Best of Both programming. And Apollo now owns almost 92M shares of this company. Check their performance over the last 5 years. I know their idiots right.

    Internet Radio without a subscription is FM radio on the internet. Royalties on the internet are very expensive for music and exclusive content, so what are you left with. A barely functioning, expensive piece of equipment, playing FM music and commercials. Yeah your right, with no rev share agreements with OEMs their just going to treat SAT RAD as an 8 track and install all of these internet paper weights for their very demanding consumers. LOL
    2008 Sep 12 10:09 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    62, no problem with you. We agree that this is for speculators, not small investors who can't afford to lose their money.
    2008 Sep 12 10:11 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Cos, great to have you back! You're looking at the world as if everything will stay the way it is today. In the future, NASCAR, NFL etc, won't need Sirius because consumers will be able to get their content directly through wireless internet. They will keep ALL the money, rather than share it with Sirius. Think what's happening in TV right now. You have heard of a thing called The NFL Network haven't you? If Congress doesn't scream bloody murder, in the future that's where you'll find most NFL games.
    2008 Sep 12 10:17 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    I bought as many shares as I could as the price was dropping and have no regrets what so ever. As everyone knows, the reality of the market is that rumor and irrational emotional reactions toss it about. This forces panic selling among the long holders with the short sellers and options traders cleaning up the spoils. This is just a fact with many getting caught up in the mindset of doom and remorse. Now for some personal speculation. As far as coming up with their $300 mil. and $400 mil. payments, there is no financial institution on the planet that would let this one slide into default. Especially not in the current climate. Think about it. Bankruptcy means collecting ultimately only pennies on the dollar and being trapped in years of litigation, which would throw their investment into the same place where many now hold their heads. This also would have a ripple effect across the board for them causing further reaching damage. This approach is really not an intellegent option. Mel K. is playing his cards exactly the way he should with his conservative figures and hazy confidence regarding the February payment deadline. He is leveraging Sirius’ position into a 6-month window to pressure the financiers to ultimately negotiate that “sweeter deal” Sirius should inevitably acquire. By making his announcement, he has left investors scratching their heads, with many of you playing “follow the looser” off a cliff and pulling the price down with you. With just a few words, he has effectively put pressure on the lending institution to scramble quickly to the negotiating table before the stock value and public confidence of the company that they have a huge sum of money invested in plummets even further down the tubes toward oblivion. This would make it more difficult to realize a payback of their loan investment at all. I would still look for the price to bottom out around .67 within the next few weeks before we see any steady upturn. For me, I am going to patiently hold on to my 300,000 shares and ride this one out till the end!
    2008 Sep 12 10:23 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Good content guys.Buy,Buy, Buy! Dollar- cost- average at these short lived bargain basement prices. Don't forget to reserve your place in Vegas for the future $$$ celebration! Run you Big Beautiful Blue Dog Run! Long Siri. Now where's my cash?... there must be some more her someplace! LOL.
    2008 Sep 12 10:29 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    'not Jim, your painting a picture three years from now. I know you don't have a crystal ball so what's the point. I'm looking at the 3 - 18 months. Internet radio is not an OEM competitor in that time frame. Revenues as I outlined above are real from real contracts and agreements. When bashers want to take the stock down they talk bankruptcy, cash burn, and debt, but given the other side of the equation, revenues, you guys dismiss their potential. The fact is as I've said above they have not defaulted on any obligation, their expenses are coming down in total, and their revenues are growing with new possibilities opening up every day.
    2008 Sep 12 10:31 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    And now I have to go make some money...... catch you later.
    2008 Sep 12 10:33 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    bdp, what's your acquisition cost on the 300,000? There's a guy on the other board who says that he bought at $1.60 a share more than 4 years ago, and rode it all the way down. So he turned a 300%-400% profit into a 40% loss. Even if we get back to $1.60 by the end of the year, He has essentially earned nothing on his money for 5 years. Blind faith is not investing. The day of buy and hold is long since gone.
    2008 Sep 12 10:39 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    i don't have as much to lose as most of you; however, i bot into sirus xm when it was 1.43/sh, 1.02/sh, and .96/sh and i intend to buy at whatever price it opens at on monday.....i think we would be foolish to sell until the top execs of sirus xm develop a plan to settle the debt lurking in early 2009.....I INTEND TO HOLD ON TO MY STOCK UNTIL 1ST QTR 2009...who knows, this could turn out to be a real gold mine if we are willing to hang on with a long rope!
    2008 Sep 12 11:06 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    gigilong, why not buy calls instead? They will cost you a lot less, and you still get the upside benefit.
    2008 Sep 12 12:14 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Average cost on my 300000 shares is 1.21.
    2008 Sep 12 12:17 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    This might be a dumb question, but I'm not all that knowledgeable about stocks. I own about 6,000 shares. My average price paid for all of the stocks is $2.46. I plan on riding this out with the hope that it will go back up because this money is not needed right now.
    Question... should I buy more now? The stock is at 88 cents a share. Does anyone have a prediction where the low is and if I should purchase more?
    2008 Sep 12 12:27 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Candy, you should have bought puts to hedge, but even now, they might not be a bad move, depending on the price.
    2008 Sep 12 12:44 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    bdp,i'm with you..400000 shares and holding.not selling any time soon.
    2008 Sep 12 12:45 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    average on my 400000 is 1.86. sucks i know!
    2008 Sep 12 01:25 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    'not Jim, Candy is telling you that she's not that knowledgeable about stocks and your recommending puts and calls. Candy probably bought these shares expecting the merger to provide a pop, like most of us expected, and didn't get it, the pop that is. Now she's a short term trader forced into a longer term investor decision and hadn't planned on going to investor "school", just wanted to make some easy money.

    Your recommendation to giglong to buy calls, although they will expire and with no movement in SP, become worthless, could be your same recommendation to Candy. The recommendation to have a margin account, buy puts and calls, to a retail investor who admits a general lack of knowledge is foolish. The simplest way to "hedge" and I loosely us the term, is to dollar cost average down to lower your overall cost basis. Now I only recommend this if you are still interested in this company and hence its stock. If you don't and didn't want to become this involved, let your lesson be taking the loss, your tax deduction, and the need for better research before putting your money down on a company for fast money.
    2008 Sep 12 01:56 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    I'm lost... like I said, I don't know much so when you say "you should have bought puts to hedge" I have no idea what that means.

    cost1000, I do invest in other stocks and have done good in some, but Sirius was one that I thought would be a sure thing. Now that it's so low I didn't think it would be smart to sell. The tax deduction will not help at all. Even if it takes years I would rather ride it... but, I'm wondering if this stock has a deeper dive coming and should I buy more right now in the hope that even a couple years from now I will be glad I did.

    Opinions?
    2008 Sep 12 02:21 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    cos, the market has already taken her to a more effective school than any other she could go to. She maybe still ok, she just has to advance through the grades a little more rapidly. As Bill Seidman has said "Dollar-cost averaging obviously won't work if you choose an investment that falls ill and never recovers."
    2008 Sep 12 02:41 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Candy.................... you are talking like a gambler, that is not investing. Start doing your homework. Stay on this article and read what cos1000 and relmor are saying about this stock. You will find no more accurate information availiable than what these two talk about. Then follow them from article to article. Good Luck.
    2008 Sep 12 02:43 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    'not Jim, there isn't anything I would disagree with in what you've said, that's why I caution her commitment to this stock. We've all been burned on our "sure things" and were taught in the school of "hard knocks" to do our own research. With the volatility and current price of this stock, puts and calls, are the red , black, or odd, even on the roulette wheel. They also have the added pressure of expiring. If time is not a concern, dollar cost averaging in a company going through pressure from the street, not the business model (my opinion) is a better way to Invest.
    2008 Sep 12 03:24 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    killerkaul, Great observation as always, but no one should give anyone here to much credit unless it resonates for their own investment goals. You and I are running under the Big Blue Dogs Flag so we've already decided our own fate my friend. Run with us or stay on the porch with the puppies. That doesn't make us right, just committed.
    2008 Sep 12 03:28 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Candy, read 'not Jim's comment carefully: "the market has already taken her to a more effective school than any other she could go to"

    Not to be too philosophical or disrespectful but, Life without education becomes a cruel teacher, forming a "school of hard knocks" for those uneducated. The stock market should not become Your school of choice because it will take your money. Waiting around for a company's stock price to move without understanding the fundamental business model of the company is, as killerkaul said, Gambling. In this case you don't even know your gambling. Have you read this companies prospectus, 10Q, or 10K under the SEC filings? If not, no one can advise you better than a little research. My feeling is with this company's stock price you will have a little time. If it goes up on unexpected exceptional performance, you will not have missed much, and can still get in for the years of success to come. If you keep gambling..... well you know the rest and anything can happen.
    2008 Sep 12 03:48 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    hey guys I am back, just commented on the last article here. Hey cos you been reading my comments on the Sirius Buzz forums or what I said basically the samething about the financing and bankruptcy.
    2008 Sep 12 04:09 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    163888 I may have been reading them but give me credit for my own thoughts man. LOL All I can say is great minds must be thinking alike. Great to have you back.
    2008 Sep 12 04:17 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    No offence cos, I was saying it like when you normally just beat me to the punch, before when you put your comment up just seconds before me, remember. I just wanted credit for beating you once.
    2008 Sep 12 04:37 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Yes it is good to be back. By the way did you see my comment to Sirius Roadkill at Sirius Buzz. He thought I was not the same person as john there, he must not have any common sense at all if he could not see that.
    2008 Sep 12 04:40 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Cos, you and raymer have made my mind up with all your input on this post. I'm not scared anymore. Thank you both....

    You're right, If you can't hang with the big dogs stay on the porch........

    Me and my 6000 shares are running with the BIG BLUE DOG.

    GO MEL.
    2008 Sep 12 05:34 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    163888, Yes I did and I also responded on Siriusbuzz. by the way no offense taken, didn't you see my LOL. Your right about beating me to the punch, its hard to keep up with both boards and the issues raised.

    siriusly depressed, thats the spirit, a good nights rest, brings renewed commitment. Its hard to feel good about this company with all the bad news in the general markets, such as, Lehman, Wash Mu,
    Freddie, Fannie, and the beating shareholders are taking. Psychology and sentiment moves the Stock Price more than anticipated performance. We are vulnerable to the downside, not on fundamentals but on fear and panic by the retail investor who means well, but doesn't understand the company's position and future potential. Its easy to say bankruptcy and a lot more difficult to give justification for the statement.
    2008 Sep 12 06:05 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    163888................... Great to have you back. You have been sorely missed! Grab your sword and shield. It's time..... to run once again, with the Big Blue Dog................... CHARGE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
    2008 Sep 12 08:11 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Everyone................. great information and insight above...............ve... helpful and uplifting. Thank you all.
    2008 Sep 12 08:18 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    should say {very} above.
    2008 Sep 12 08:19 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Props to those here who take the time to write intelligent opinion and who understand how the Street works--good stuff. The key for those still learning is read, research and above all, REALIZE why you are in the market. Hope is not a strategy but setting realistic goals and expectations is.

    I feel sorry for those who jumped ship on SIRI (esp. this week) because the Street convinced them of doomsday. As the experienced guys (and girls--not exclude!) here know, the worst feeling in the world is to jump, then watch your (former) holding bottom not far from where you sold, and then rehydrate without you--and all you're left with is another contribution to your annual 3K deduction. We've all been through it--before learning how things really work. SIRI's action this year is right out of the Wall Street text book on how to take money from main street. I do feel for these people who have by now made their losses their own (RIP). Those longs left and reading these posts, stick it out at least into Q1--you won't be sorry...

    So it looks like the shortside has begun to crack (my point exactly)...

    Trade Alerts on Recent Analyst Upgrade Notables: WYNN, SIRI, CAM, HAR, WGOV, ANF

    2008-09-12 12:44 ET - News Release
    ” “Sirius XM Radio Inc. (SIRI) shares decreased 3.26% to 89 cents in Friday's mid-morning trading. Sirius XM Radio provides satellite radio services in the United States … “Janco Partners recently upgraded Sirius XM Radio from “Accumulate” to “Buy” and set its price target at $2.25. Citing the recent significant decline in share price, Janco said it made the upgrade so cautiously. The firm cited Janco believes in the long-term satellite radio sector, as well as Sirius XM Radio's management team…

    2008 Sep 12 08:19 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    All, remember that the two democrats voted against the merger in the end. If Obama wins, the FCC board will be 3 democrats and 2 republicans. If that happens we can expect them to throw everything they have at SIRI to either kill it or bust it up. VOTE REPUBLICAN!!
    2008 Sep 12 08:49 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    stan, im with you on that!!
    163888 welcome back!!
    cos,relmore,killerk,s1... i've learned alot frome you ,thanx!
    position,long..attitud... pateince
    2008 Sep 12 10:29 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    FCC wont reopen this case. You would see too many lawsuits against the government, plus its unprecedented on a merger this size(if at all, I would love to hear peoples answer if the FCC ever reopened a case, or if its even legal for them to do with no new info). Besides Jessie Jackson works for both parties, and he wanted this merger, remember that. Freemasons in both parties, people.
    2008 Sep 12 11:07 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    MSFT will buy and rescue these people!
    2008 Sep 13 01:55 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    •  • Website: http://www.yahoo.com
    lets hope microsoft doesnt buy siri because i have alot of YHOO stock i would like to see capitalize to cover my downside on this stock. lets face it folks, have you seen the overall market? its way down so theres no suprise that this stock has tanked as well. people are more conservative right now and large institutions are moving there shares for hopeful quick rebounds in the financials that are left alone and out of harms way of freddie and fannie. now is the time to buy this and alot of stocks out there. a rebound will happen if history repeats itself and there will be some huge gains to be had. trust me when i say it. it doesnt take an analyist to guide you. do your homework on everything you buy, but just like a new car you may buy, you can end up with troubles. thats what we have here. this company is in the shop getting some warranty issues taken care of and will roll out good as new soon. also diversify your portfolio and you will see pops in other areas to cover any downturns. i hope you all make some money here but for myself, i am looking at this stock for retirement and maybe in 10-15 years its will be trading aroung 50-100. who knows. good luck to all.
    2008 Sep 13 02:38 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    They made it impossible to hedge this bet. No shares to short and puts are too expensive. They are 1.50. So im going to spend 1.50 to cover a max 20 cent more drop? I dont think so. Averaging down is dangerous now, unless u use only cash.
    2008 Sep 14 01:55 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Hi.

    thhlast point of SIRI was 0.95 and the analysis of SIRI's graphics show, that Resistance was bitten. So the shares will go up. I hope... :)


    On Sep 14 01:55 AM relmor wrote:

    > They made it impossible to hedge this bet. No shares to short and
    > puts are too expensive. They are 1.50. So im going to spend 1.50
    > to cover a max 20 cent more drop? I dont think so. Averaging down
    > is dangerous now, unless u use only cash.
    2008 Sep 14 03:02 AM | Link | Reply
Find People on SA
Financial Advisors | Portfolio Managers Analysts | Traders | VCs | Investor Relations Company Executives
Related Themes:
  1. Radio (13 in last week)
  2. Book Publishing (3 in last week)
  3. Cable (1 in last week)
  4. Diversified Media (1 in last week)
  5. Movie Distribution (4 in last week)
More by Tyler Savery
Other articles by Tyler Savery »