CBOE Put-Call Ratio Indicates Negative Outlook

Below is a graph of the Put-Call Ratio (10 Day Moving Average of the CBOE Put-Call Ratio). When the line is at the top of the page there is heavy put buying, which indicates fear and is usually seen at market bottoms. I marked the peaks in the ratio with a red X, which roughly coincided with this years major market lows. As you can see we are nowhere near prior peaks of put buying and have probably not put in a good bottom.

click to enlarge

The highest peak coincided with the March low, which produced the largest rally this year. The lowest peak coincided with the July 15 low, which produced the weakest major rally this year. In order to get the type of low we had in March there is a long way to go.

Some people are arguing that the option ratios are no longer useful because people now use inverse ETFs to hedge. However, this methodology seems to be working this year. This does not mean the market can't rally. It only means that any rally from these levels is likely to be weak.

On the bright side hedge fund positions saw some relief yesterday. Major hedge fund holdings like MasterCard (MA), Visa (V) and ConocoPhillips (COP) were up after going down mercilessly for weeks. It is possible that funds are done liquidating.

Disclosure: None

Comments

[V Winner:]

Well- for one place that both the Jewish and Indian community can unit- its our Visa blog (also covering MA/AXP/DFS :)

www.vwinners.com

2008 Sep 11 10:23 AM

[mrbill for V:]

A much better site with real data would be.


www.cboe.com/data/PutC...

2008 Sep 11 12:28 PM

[Trader Man:]

I guess you had to write something for you paycheck, next time try
writing something that makes sense..

2008 Sep 11 04:07 PM

[DaveW:]

PAU£U$&$HMUCK,
When I find an article that I find useless to me I click the little X at the upper right of my window. Done. It's really easy, you should try it. If you really think so much of yourself why don't you write articles and put your b*lls on the line? Afraid of the same criticism you deal out? Your posts on SA are worthless and hateful.

2008 Sep 11 04:16 PM

[mrbill for V:]

DaveW: You sound like a really successful businessman, there is not one word of hate in Mr. Mishal's post, is this what you do going from blog to blog hammering people like several others do here at Seeking Alpha?

2008 Sep 11 04:27 PM

[DaveW:]

mrbill, my post is directed at PAU£U$&$HARKY, the first to comment on Mr. Mishal's article.

2008 Sep 11 04:41 PM

[V Winner:]

Mr. Bill- I see that you are following me around again-

Yes- if you want to know generic information about options cboe is great- but if you are interested in Visa as an investment:

Our data is very real- and we actually have opinions of our own Mr. Bill- also we are not jealous little freaks that are so insecure and afraid that we must follow others around on the web like child molesters at a playground. I really don't know what your obsession is with me but you should really be more secure in your own skin.

vwinners.com

Like- I said- check it out for yourself- and if you don't like the blog don't stick around. We don't advertise- and unlike the 99% of the blogs out there we are simply providing a service in a wide variety of Visa-specific information (and MA/DFS/AXP)

2008 Sep 11 08:43 PM

[V Winner:]

Dave- Mr. Bill didn't see the comment (which is why my first comment doesn't make sense)- but he has a habit of judging people on the web.

As far as the article- the fact of the matter is that although certain funds have been sold some V recently -others have picked up the slack and more as institutional ownership for V has been on the rise (check the stats). Overall market conditions and the tainted brush of being labeled a 'financial'- as well as fears (mostly unfounded) of an overall global econ slowdown have held V underwater- not fund liquidation .

Mr. Bill - I dedicated a 9/11 post to you as it is obvious that you don't have many friends. Rather than feel anger for you- I realize that you are a frustrated person (for whatever the reason) and that you suffer from Internet Angry Guy syndrome. On a day like this don't fight with others- come join our blog and start posting some comments on V. We would really like to have you participate with us.

2008 Sep 11 09:22 PM

[mrbill for V:]

VWINNER AKA VLOSER You did a great job of describing yourself i couldn't have done better myself, no way i am going to lower myself to your standards.

2008 Sep 12 06:18 AM

[mrbill for V:]

VLOSER you should be ashamed of yourself invoking the memory of 911 victims in a negative manner however this is your style. I just got a phone call from a member who reminded me that it i am the one being stalked. As far as joining your blog who would do that, you are such a control freak you edit every post and allow no other points of view.I have never commented nor will i ever on your sites ,i challenge you to prove i have, if i had you would have my email address, i have yours! i wouldn't waste my breath but here on Seeking Alpha you have harmed so many i have to try to help any new members reading your arrogant posts. You are so desperate for attention you got what 6 sites now? all the same? i am not afraid and will stand up to you anytime. Everyone has a right to their opinion and i can comment as i see fit in a respectful manner, however from time to time in life people like you are encountered and then one must decide to take it lying down or challenge you to prove it. VLOSER fire back can't wait to hear all about it. Again no mention of you was on my post.

2008 Sep 12 07:24 AM

[V Winner:]

Mr. Bill- People are welcome to go to my blog- I DID NO SUCH THING- unlike you- I live in NYC- and know people that died in 9/11.

I am in the financial business and owned two brokerages during 9/11.

I don't know what your problem is with me- but you follow me around like a child. I have been online since 1995 and have met a few deranged individuals like you. They are normally sociapaths that have no life. Just the statement "I have your e-mail address" proves what a freak you are.

At any rate for people that are interested in following VISA- I have a blog that will interest them with over 300 posts. I will say what I want on this site and any other site- and it is NONE OF YOUR BUSINESS. So- I suggest that you go get a life.

For people interested in Visa check out our blog - and decide for yourself:

vwinners.com

2008 Sep 12 07:56 AM

[mrbill for V:]

VLOSER You don't know where i live or what i do for a living, or who i am related to that perished during 9/ll, again you are a know it all.and this is your major problem,you are the one stalking me and you need to quit i have overwhelming evidence and you have none. Anyone reading this just click on vwinner above the post date.

2008 Sep 12 08:07 AM

[mrbill for V:]

CORRECTION: To view all 337 comments of vwinner you will need to click on USER172125 the name he hid behind for a short while, all posts were transfered to this ID You see the problem here trying to track down
this individual

2008 Sep 12 08:35 AM

[mrbill for V:]

VLOSER you are to much, i just rechecked your site to make sure i am not giving the wrong information. Right there in black and white it says.

"Your comments will be posted after review usually by the end of the day."

"All comments must be approved by blog author" and you wonder why we

say you edit posts?

2008 Sep 12 08:46 AM

[mrbill for V:]

VLOSER'S OWN WORDS of course he's a big time Stock Broker

Is Visa Really Priceless? [view article]
Amen- Visa- that is exactly what I was saying- I own 3250. shares of Visa- and will be adding another 1750. shares by the end of the month.

Not only do the people slamming the best stock since Google- not have a position - THEY CANT AFFORD ONE.

Oh- and to the guy that thinks I work in a boiler room- I own a metals trading company : empirestatemetals.com-

2008 Sep 12 09:32 AM

[mrbill for V:]

Exact wording take from VLOSER website. I rest my case in chief on this matter and will refer to it as necessary.

Personnel: Empire is not a registered securities broker, and its personnel are not licensed, registered, or certified as brokers or accountants. Their work experience, knowledge, and training vary widely. They and Empire may receive from time to time undisclosed compensation for recommending specific products. Empire personnel do not give investment or tax advice, and clients should seek such advice from their own financial advisors and accountants.

2008 Sep 12 10:39 AM

[stretcho44:]

How can you tell the difference between put buying and put selling?

A growing number of people are writing in the money or at the money put options to buy shares at a lower effective price. The excess put premium over the intrinsic value reduces the effective price I have to pay for shares. This kind of put volume is bullish not bearish.

I have watched stocks under attack by short sellers who cannot get shares to short sell in the money call options. Their call volume is not bullish.

Taking the ratio may give some indication but there is an increasing amount of noise in the ratio. This noise makes it less reliable.

2008 Sep 12 11:57 AM

[V Winner:]

Oh- and Mr. Bill- I dedicated a new post to you:

www.vwinners.com/2008/...

2008 Sep 12 04:24 PM

[mrbill for V:]

VLOSER I must really be important for such a dedication. i won't bother to check it as we all know how positive it will be. You fan base is about to zero and i will look forward to your usual after midnight rant. By the way anytime you want to throw a party in Battery Park let me know we can count friends then, if you can afford to park there.

2008 Sep 12 05:10 PM

[mrbill for V:]

FINAL POST FOR A WHILE. i have made four challenges today to VLOSER all of which have gone unanswered, He keeps focusing on sex, morons, 12 year olds, and anything else hateful he can come up with. I decided today to unload on VLOSER because he insulted my friends and brother early on, just because several had the nerve to suggest that shorting Visa stock might made sense down the road and they have since been proven right. I personally feel it is very important that any new member realize what they will be getting into with VLOSER and remember there is no way he is a VWINNER because such a person would be very respectful of people have a positive outlook on life and most certainly would be a motivator of people none of which describes VLOSER.He was given a chance to make an easy $1,000.00 today just by proving one of two of his allegations and no response? that speaks volumes to me. I hereby rescind the offer so as not to give him the time this weekend to forge something. Tomorrow i will fly to my vacation home in Florida now that the hurricane has passed and "i say a prayer for Texas" and will trade stocks on the beach Monday-Thursday. It has been a while since i have been down By the way anytime any of you want to pose a tough question about investing in general between VLOSER and myself to see who has the best answer i am up to it. I promise you i have the experience and success to back it up. I am known Nationally therefore i can't let a clown like VLOSER cause my company problems other wise i would direct you to my website, i have nothing to prove and i don't run my mouth as if i do, to expose this clown is the right thing to do. Good luck to everyone sorry to take up so much of your time however to those who hate these posts you don't have to read them.

2008 Sep 12 06:04 PM

[V Winner:]

OK- Now that Mr. Bill is on vacation- we can get back to talking about Visa. For some reason- I have been repeatedly attacked from day 1- for simply PUTTING OUT MORE CONTENT ON VISA THAN ANY OTHER PERSON ON THE INTERNET. I have personally posted more than 500 comments- and 250 posts on Visa since day one. Unlike those that spend their time attacking me- I- like you - am an investor and feel that investors are better served with as much information about a stock (or stocks) as possible. So- I am going to continue to post to Seeking Alpha- and several other sites- regardless of what anyone says. Anyone that wants to know me has an easy job as my e-mail is posted on all of my blogs. Our blogs - DO NOT ADVERTISE- I have no ulterior motive. My goals is to create a group to exchange as much information about the various investments that we are all interested in. We have several blogs and sites each covering specific topics.You will note that all of my comments (when not battling trolls) are directed at V. The following posts will be exerpts of various reader comments, my posts, and other source posts. Enjoy.

2008 Sep 14 11:41 AM

[V Winner:]

Other Source Posts:

Some US credit card proposals go too far....

www.vwinners.com/2008/...

Visa Inc Price Watch Alert Bearish Price Movement...

www.vwinners.com/2008/...

Visa Money Transfer Service Gaining Global Adoption:

www.vwinners.com/2008/...

MA vs. V: The Motley Fool Throwdown
www.vwinners.com/2008/...

How to Get the Most Out of Your Credit Card

www.vwinners.com/2008/...

Credit Services Stocks Round Up

www.vwinners.com/2008/...

Visa Mobile Platform- Global Momentum Continues

www.vwinners.com/2008/...

Visa Launches New Mobil Payment Service

www.vwinners.com/2008/...

Would Biden and Obamba Bring Change to Visa

www.vwinners.com/2008/...

An Unofficial History of V

www.vwinners.com/2008/...

Interchange Fee Graphic

www.vwinners.com/2008/...
India’s Card Transaction up 42%

www.vwinners.com/2008/...

The Next Credit Crunch

www.vwinners.com/2008/...

Ok- that’s enough for now. We have another couple hundred – other source posts on the blog.

2008 Sep 14 12:06 PM

[V Winner:]

About to post some reader posts and comments- but couldn't resist re-posting my tribute to mr. bill and all other vermin and swine that pollute the internet with no contributions other than negativity.

The post it titled : A Discussion on nerd rage

www.vwinners.com/2008/...

2008 Sep 14 12:08 PM

[V Winner:]

Ok- Here are some reader posts recently- there are dozens more on the blog:


Visa: Between a rock and a hard place (by zaiteku)

www.vwinners.com/2008/...

Fresh air, or just a break in the storm (jonathan)

www.vwinners.com/2008/...

9/11 – A Day to Remember (jonathan)

www.vwinners.com/2008/...

Don’t get sad- get MAD (jonathan)

www.vwinners.com/2008/...

Visa Inc- Market Manipulation Claims (jonathan)

www.vwinners.com/2008/...

Visa Inc- Added to the Dow Financials 30 (manny)

www.vwinners.com/2008/...

The Split Personality Attacks Again (jonathan)

www.vwinners.com/2008/...

Visa Investor Relations – DROPS THE BALL (jonathan)

www.vwinners.com/2008/...

Manipulating the Market (Steve)

www.vwinners.com/2008/...

2008 Sep 14 12:26 PM

[Brazil Inve...:]

A testimonial to Jon
I’ve been reading these posts and am a partner’s of Jon’s on a project we have been heading up for some time now.
This goes out to ‘Mr. Bill’ and all the other sniveling whiners that like to hide behind their computers while hurling insults. Jon is well known on Wall Street by a LOT of people and has been for some time.
Jon puts out more information than anyone I’ve ever met- and has helped a lot of people.

I see people saying that they are “nationally known” and are successful but I see no proof. So to those of you that want to attack an associate of mine- why not post your resume on the net, the name of one deal that you’ve done- or the name of anything you built? Why- BECAUSE THERE ARE NONE- that’s why.

I can personally attest to the fact that Jon is a man of action- and there are dozens more that will do the same. I suggest that you stick to the mission and if you want to have some kind of contest why not do one that counts and put out more and better information as that is why we come here- no to hear someone that is unwilling to come out of the closet and prove their own substance.

2008 Sep 14 10:52 PM

[streetwheelz:]

Right on v winner !! I love the site!!

2008 Sep 15 08:50 AM

[V Winner:]

Thanks Streetwheelz- FYI - Streetwheelz is the car man on the East Coast. For any of those here in the NYC area he puts on one of the biggest, baddest, and best- car shows on EARTH.

Here is a link to his post on V Winners- and the numerous mention in national publications.

www.vwinners.com/2008/...

Now- HERE is a guy that IS natioanally owned....

PS- I think even Bill would agree that none of us have anymore time for bickering. We are facing a financial meltdown- and I am not going to expend anymore energy fighting as I need to watch the market right now. So- we should just put an end to the BS and focus on the market.
More updates on V on the blog- I'm sure you know the address by now :)

Streetwheelz- good luck on the car show man!

2008 Sep 16 01:45 PM