Quite a Reversal - China Central Bank Cuts Interest Rates

Very interesting reversal overnight in Asia. After fighting inflation and trying to slow runaway growth for years, the central bank of China cut rates for the first time in 6 years. This should be a net positive for the "global growth" stocks - but not today.

If oil could fall to $80 or so, perhaps Europe will join in and then when the US cuts rates we can have an "easy money" world again.... wait, wasn't that the nexis of this current fractured bubble? Nevermind that - we can deal with the problems this will cause in 2014. For now we cheer rate cuts (CNBC cheerleaders already talking about 50 basis point cut "needed") :)

• China cut interest rates for the first time in six years and allowed most banks to set aside smaller reserves as worsening credit-market turmoil and weakening export demand dimmed the outlook for economic growth.
• The People's Bank of China reduced the one-year lending rate to 7.20 percent from 7.47 percent, effective tomorrow, and lowered the reserve ratio at the nation's smaller banks by 1 percentage point.
• The slowest inflation in 14 months has given China room to cut borrowing costs and protect jobs in the world's fourth- largest economy.
• "Policy makers see the probability of a recession in the U.S. is higher now, so the outlook for Chinese exports has deteriorated,'' said Darius Kowalczyk, chief investment strategist at CFC Seymour Ltd. in Hong Kong. "This is the beginning of an easing cycle in China.''
• Inflation cooled to 4.9 percent in August, export growth slowed and industrial production expanded by the least in six years, according to data released last week. China's economy expanded 10.1 percent in the three months to June 30 from a year earlier, the fourth straight quarter of slower growth.
• The property market could be headed for a "meltdown'' as home prices and sales decline, Morgan Stanley said September 12.
• China's policy makers have already loosened loan quotas -- restrictions on how much banks can lend -- and raised export-tax rebates for garments and textiles to help exporters and small businesses.

Remember, China is a 30+ year bull market - which will have serious pullbacks along the way. This is one of them, but if you have a 10 year horizon valuations are now getting interesting - as opposed to the mania we saw last fall. It will be interesting to see if India joins in over the coming months.

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Comments

[User 142738:]

"Inflation cooled to 4.9 percent in August..." Really? Perhaps per month, but definitely not per year.

If you believe the inflation figures from the Chinese government then I've got a trunk of money in Nigeria with your name on it.

2008 Sep 15 03:33 PM

[globalHOBBIT:]

Rice eating commie bastids are big time liars. They also said Olympics were sold out only for world to discover they were paying people to fill seats. Liars also say people in Tibet happy and free.......ha! Happy and free as chickens on Col. Sanders plantation.

2008 Sep 15 11:49 PM

[rlirph:]

Governments are not to be trusted, whether they are Chinese or Americans. Do you really believe that we have an economic expansion of 3.3% last quarter? Or do you believe that our actual cost of living went up 0.1% last month? Or do you believe the core CPI after stripping out energy and housing costs? I think there are naive suckers every where.

2008 Sep 16 12:10 PM