Is Sirius XM Headed the Way of Old Radio?

Remember when shares of Sirius and XM radio were the talk of Wall Street only a few years ago? The next generation of radio that will take over every car, home and local business? Fast forward to today, and only a couple of months after the July merger and shares of the combined company Sirius XM (SIRI) are trading at less than a dollar!

The merger was supposed to inject confidence in investors, but the stock has dropped by more than 40% since July (click chart to enlarge). Last week, the company announced that subscriber growth will be slower than analysts expect. CEO Mel Karmazin, who was instrumental in signing top media names for Sirius radio’s lineup, such as Howard Stern and Martha Stewart, also had a hand in fueling the downward pull on share price after he made an “off-handed” comment regarding the large amount of debt due in February which the company is trying to negotiate. “Am I going to lend the company the money? I hope not. I hope we don’t get to that”. He later explained he was being candid, akin to a joke.

Let’s face it; satellite radio is a great service. I should know. I am hooked on XM in my car. But at home, I listen to internet streamed radio. While working out, or on the go, my trusted iPod (AAPL) is attached to me. The point is that while the merger -- which according to Mr. Karmazin slowed down sales over more than a year due to consumer confusion -- was being ironed out, alternatives to satellite radio took hold of consumers.

It is internet streamed radio, I believe, that will be the eventual winner. Already, you can listen to internet radio on your iPhone and other web phone units. I can play internet streamed music on my family room television through my Playstation 3 (SNE). Eventually, everyone will install units in their car to connect to the web, and play music that way.

It would not be surprising at all if satellite radio will go the way of old radio, that is to give its listeners free service, and sell air time to advertisers. I am just not sure if the advertisers would sign on in large numbers, as internet radio has already opened the doors to advertisers when Sirius and XM were shutting the door for many years. Sirius XM may be too late.

Disclosure: The author does not currently hold any position in Sirius XM stock.

Comments

[163888:]

you have obviously dont remember what internet radio was saying about year ago when they said that if the royalties go to what they expect them to then they will not be able to stay in business. Hence proof of this Pantora, and the exact reason they gave for having to shut their doors.

2008 Sep 15 02:52 PM

[digivision:]

I bet if Apple where to take over , they could find a way to make it work
as is right now satellite radio is pretty much as you say relegated to the car...

2008 Sep 15 03:09 PM

[hairpie:]

Good to hear from 163888 again, I'm gettin worried about the stock, how much lower can it go, everyday it goes down

2008 Sep 15 03:33 PM

[AlexS:]

I never did like the idea that you had to buy one subscription for your car radio and another for your house radio. Or, they expected me to carry my radio from my car to the docking station in my house. Give me a break. And I guess that $500 million they paid to Howard Stern isn't looking so smart. That was the era of big money - but now we're finding out it was real all along.

2008 Sep 15 03:40 PM

[jswede:]

"Hence proof of this Pantora, and the exact reason they gave for having to shut their doors. "

>> just turned on Pandora on my iPhone. works just fine.

2008 Sep 15 03:41 PM

[163888:]

Why dont you check this out jswede;

www.washingtonpost.com...

Now while you think SIRIXM is going bankrupt, why would you not think that about Pandra, when the CEO and founder Tim westergren says it.

2008 Sep 15 03:51 PM

[Satdog:]

163888: You said "the exact reason they gave for having to shut their doors."

Pandora has not closed.

2008 Sep 15 03:54 PM

[Rdr2go:]

Pandora said it would be the reason they may have to close. And, as the link above illustrates, they may be closing and soon.

2008 Sep 15 04:08 PM

[User 262806:]

I have a sirius stilleto which holds up to 1000 songs on it, allows you to record sirius content and you can take in on the go. A sirius subscription includes internet streaming radio and I listen to that at work. What I like best, is I do not have to go through the process of donwloading songs and compiling my own library. The stiletto is like having the entire index of music available in your car, pocket, or home

2008 Sep 15 04:17 PM

[hairpie:]

The only thing that sux about the Stilleto is the stupid head phones

2008 Sep 15 04:19 PM

[163888:]

hairpie, The stock price does not mean it is going bankrupt. While if they get the remaining financing or not does. I feel the question is not weather they will get the financing. It is weather SIRIXM (Mel) will be able to screw GS or not. Actions and statements by both GS and SIRIXM show that GS who owns about half of the convertibles (130 million of the 300 million) that are coming due in Feb. want them to be reconverted. Mel is saying he does not want it refinanced the way GS does, the reasons are obvious. Then we have the other 350 million in May, now if those cannot be refinanced then SIRIXM has enough cash on hand to take care of it (this is not ideal for SIRIXM but possible). Then there is the last 400 million due in Dec. 2009 that need to be reconverted. Once again these do not need to be refinance just reconverted like the first ones due in Feb. with GS. I believe as I have said before that people holding the debt would much rather wait to get their money instead of trying to get pennies on the dollar now. Debt holders will be willing to take a company down to get pennies on the dollar if they believe the company is failing and will not be able to pay then back anyway. Many people have forgotten SIRI/XMSR has not ever missed a payment and by the time the debt comes due SIRIXM will be in even better shape then it is now, it gets better with each passing day. It is not looking like a company that will not pay them back, hence they would wait for wait is owed them.

2008 Sep 15 04:24 PM

[relmor:]

JWEDE is not a realistic person, and the internet radio taking over Satellite radio is the biggest piece of garbage I have ever read. If he said Apple and Ipod, or Verizon I would give it a 1 percent chance. Pandora is dead because Pandora cant generate the income necessary to grow its product, while eating royalty costs. You see, Sirius already put up the debt and the large money to get to where it is today, which is a large step internet radio cannont cross, not in this market, not with crap quality and connection problems, and no content. No specialty shoes, live concerts, sports, howard, oprah, mad dog, and those funny guys. The content will win out. Do you really think cars would install satellite radio in every car if it was dead. Do you really think Toyota would start a partnership with satellite radio if it were dead. Dont you think Japanese business owners know technology? The writere of this article is as big a joke as JWSEDE and his uneducated, illogical, and trollish comments. Hey Jwsede, how much does GS pay you to post?

2008 Sep 15 04:24 PM

[jswede:]

my point about internet radio is not specific to any one company - Pandora is just an example - if they go away, there will be more and more

the point is that as the internet radio platform matures, there's no stopping anyone to step in and use the exact same subscription/content platform that SiriXM uses, only over internet radio. virtually no startup costs, no debt to deal with, and the hardware will be cheap.... with my laptop/iPhone, and soon standard in cars, I already have the "player"...

2008 Sep 15 04:28 PM

[jswede:]

I'm not saying "taking over", Relmor --- just saying that it's competition... however little bit it takes into Siri revenues, Siri cannot afford it...

2008 Sep 15 04:29 PM

[163888:]

Satdog, sorry but you took that the wrong way. I did not mean that Pandora was already closed but that they will have to close.

2008 Sep 15 04:30 PM

[jswede:]

"No specialty shoes, live concerts, sports, howard, oprah, mad dog, and those funny guys. The content will win out. "

>>> with no debt to deal with, why couldn't a competitor using internet radio pay for content?

2008 Sep 15 04:31 PM

[163888:]

jswede, internet radio companies were the ones a year ago saying they could not make it if the rates went up anymore, then they are now and that the present rates were difficult to deal with, well they are going up. jswede, You do know the rates are charged according to how many people listen to each song. the rates they are planning on charging leave almost nothing after advertising revenue because advertisers pay the same way as royalties are collected. It leaves only one conclusion that there is not enough revenue to make it after paying royalties. There is one chance for them, and that is if they put more commercials in then terrestrial radio.

2008 Sep 15 04:47 PM

[jswede:]

I don't disagree with your last post all too much, 163888. That is pretty much the current state... but it's all evolving. Listening to IR away from the house was fantasy a few years ago -- as of this summer, I do it all the time.... and I'll say again:

what's to stop anyone from creating an internet radio station and utilizing the exact same subscription/content platform as SiriXM?

Much of Siri's problems are that they had to build the infrastructure themselves -- at prices they locked into years ago, when that cost was much higher, and they are still deep in debt from it. IR doesn't have that problem at all - the infrastructure is built - and delivery over wireless improving by the month.

I am NOT saying IR is going to take over - certainly not anytime soon. I am NOT saying IR is a viable competitor as it stands TODAY.... I AM saying that Sat Radio will have competition going fwd from IR. and Sat Radio cannot afford even a little competition.

I concur with the author that eventually, IR will win.

2008 Sep 15 04:58 PM

[163888:]

jswede, First of all most people get satellite radio to listen to in their car. that is the main reason for satellite radio. Internet in the car is far from being a viable thing. As we talked about, you cant commute by staying in one place to get a connection. We also talked about the end cost for internet radio being way to high for most compared to satellite radio.

2008 Sep 15 04:59 PM

[jswede:]

I really think you are too stuck in September 2008 in your analysis, 163888.... look forward... future.

Anyway --- I hear you - your comments/thoughts are not without merit, imo. just a difference in opinion about where this is going.

2008 Sep 15 05:03 PM

[163888:]

jswede, I am not saying that internet in the car will never happen. What I am saying is that SIRIXM will have moved way pass the point of tring to just get revenue from radio by the time it does. My god they are already doing it, they are starting to go after the GPS market, not to mention, tv, ect., ect.

2008 Sep 15 05:18 PM

[relmor:]

Internet radio will never allow to get huge. Too hard to control. Period. If you understand the world, you would understand this. Why they raise rates, they will never be a vialble radio option. Your down on satellite, 8 years of pain in, to finally theres is profits soon, 20 million users, but you endorse a failed model and a crappy service like internet radio.
LOL You messed. You should have stayed out of this one JSWEDE. You see now every knows your just a troll, and will never listen to you again.
Let me spell this out for you, my son. My little padwahn learner.
INTERNET RADIO SAYS INTERNET RADIO IS NOT VIABLE AT CURRENT RATES.
There you go, they will only go up, because the government hates the internet. Too hard to control. Internet radio does not have Jessie Jacksons minority owned station on it do they? I DIDNT THINK SO YOU DIPPY DOO!!!. Learn how the world works!!

2008 Sep 15 05:36 PM

[relmor:]

Internet radio, BLLAHAHAHHAHAHAHHHHA OMG, thats a good one. They are a TERRIBLE money making model. TERRIBLE. Internet advertising is down, very cheap to begin with, and now you want them to leave terristrial radio, which is in every car, and advertise on INTERNET radio, lol. Charge to use the internet for radio!? That violates the concept of the users. Never happen. Never grow, theres your dead industry. Internet connections suck from present options while travelling or in rural areas. SATELLITE has all the answers, you have none.

2008 Sep 15 05:38 PM

[relmor:]

Please, when this stock hits $4, can you promise to not stop posting. Please dont. Please stay. I need more. This is better than Seinfeild. I love it!! More lies, I want more lies.

2008 Sep 15 05:40 PM

[AmIBankrupt:]

Why Mel does not promote aggressively BACK TV. Every Soccer Mama would love to have one in the SUV back seat to hypnotize kids all the way.

Why can not he take back seat and watch movies on demand at home or on the road. It would shut down NetFlix and movie store rentals

Why not going european, 15% are moving across countries where they wanna tune to their own music and channels. Europe has 3 times population MEL, wake up and smell the expresso

2008 Sep 15 06:56 PM

[olesage:]

The advantage that sat radio has over all others is that it is commercial free, and you get to hear real radio talent. So if you like Stern, Oprah, Winfrey, Dylan, this is the way to go. So if internet streaming is the future, I don't see how this excludes sat radio. If you have a subscription, you can stream it .. car, house, walking around town.

2008 Sep 15 07:29 PM

[163888:]

amibankrupt, The reason they have not gotten into Europe and most likely will not is satellite radio is based on OEMs, thats right the car. Without the car thier would be no need for satellite radio. Europeans dont drive if you compare them to the US. A clear example is how well World Space is, and will do. That is exactly the reason internet in the car needs to happen before internet radio can even start to discuss being competive with satellite. That is if they can even get beyond not having a profitable business model in the first place.

2008 Sep 15 09:08 PM

[Chesspower:]

I will add only one comment, which is quite obvious, about this article: If SiriusXM ever decides to sell advertising space there will be definite interest from big business, especially on the specialty channels like NFL, etc.

All of America's current media except satellite radio has advertising built into the business model. (If I'm wrong about this please let me know!)

Even if SiriusXM offered reduced subscription rates because of the offsetting revenue from ads, they could make more money than now.

If satellite radio was totally free, I believe that nearly every American who owns a car would have it. Then Managaement could tout the
increased numbers of "subscribers" overnight to their potential advertisers. For example, instead of talking about 20 million subscribers we would be talking about 200 million subscribers. See stats:

www.statemaster.com/gr...

2008 Sep 15 10:08 PM

[RMAN1:]

What if Sirius offered a lifetime sub. or a discounted 5 year sub. to get access to cash from it's listeners?

Lets say 9 million subs buy a 5 year at 450.00 = 4.05 billion dollars!
Lets say 4 million subs buy a 5 year at 450.00 = 1.80 billion dollars!

This could help them somewhat I think!

I would buy one, maybe two!

2008 Sep 15 11:24 PM

[RMAN1:]

That is a 340.00 discount!

Short term fix for a long term problem!

Maybe the investors and listeners should take things into thier own hands and renew or bump up thier sub!

Buy one as a gift for this Christmas and f*ck over goldman sucks!

2008 Sep 15 11:30 PM

[RMAN1:]

I am a long term investor and I see good things for Sirius.

They just need to get past this bad time in the market.

What do you guys say?

Can we do this, consider it a loan to Sirius for a stock payback in the end!

2008 Sep 15 11:33 PM

[linkedup86:]

I think it wouldn't be too bad if Sirius went the way of "old radio"...the main problem with old radio is that as you drive the signals fade, you get scratchiness/distortio... and when you travel you have no idea what channels play what you want to hear. Sirius would not have those problems because the channels are the same everywhere. It would basically be like another channel in your car. I like the way it is set up in my Acura. The buttons go AM/FM/XM. It's like another tuner/bandwith of radio, except it's far superior to the previous 2. The only problem is having to pay for it. If it was free, I have a strong feeling most people would be clicking the XM button every time.

2008 Sep 16 01:33 AM

[cos1000:]

There isn't any stopping Sirius XM Radio from advertising on its non music stations now. That what the Ad Revenue line is in their current financial statements. Howard, NASCAR, NFL, MLB, Mad Dog, Martha, and Oprah all have the ability to generate ad revenue on top of subscription revenue. That's what Mel said needed to improve to 10% of total revenue. He needs to increase the subscriber base to draw the interest. Giving up unique, commercial free content to do this isn't the way to increase market size without destroying the offered product, IMHO.

2008 Sep 16 07:47 AM

[cos1000:]

As far as this article goes it is nothing but a rehashing of old news regarding stock price, comments from the CEO regarding debt taken harshly by the street, foolish assumptions about the ipod being a competitor to your satellite radio subscription (anyone see the new XM walkaround), and the new wave of imaginary internet radios being installed in your car forcing you satellite hardware to the trash. This article is nothing more than a diversion, filling idle time while we wait for news on what's coming down the road and watch the stock market shudder at the failings of large well know investment banks. I could but won't even pick it apart because their isn't anything new.

2008 Sep 16 08:00 AM

[SIRI, go up!:]

bankrupt!

2008 Sep 16 08:17 AM

[jswede:]

"LOL You messed. You should have stayed out of this one JSWEDE. You see now every knows your just a troll, and will never listen to you again. "

>>> hilarious. anyway, just for the record, I've been talking about IR as potentially damaging competition for SR since the spring. Well before I heard any analysts talk about it. Ask Cos. Now several analysts, including permabull (since $8) Stifel are acknowledging it.

2008 Sep 16 08:44 AM

[JackAstor:]

How can someone say paying Howard Stern was not worth it?
Sirius had 600,000 subscribers when Howard started and 8 Million just before the Merger. Hmmm

If you look at Google trends. Everytime a subject or guest was on Howard's show it was the number one searched thing on Google but nobody can give Howard Stern credit for that because he's vile and disgusting. Right?

GIVE ME A BREAK

2008 Sep 16 09:26 AM

[JackAstor:]

Besides the US economy is in the toilet thanks to Mr Bush. Once he's gone things will look up again.

2008 Sep 16 09:29 AM

[killerkaul:]

I agree with you that the McCain/Palin ticket will surely work on the economy, and it will improve.

2008 Sep 16 09:44 AM

[I'm Not Jim...:]

72 cents . . . while the string quartet plays "Nearer My God To Thee"

2008 Sep 16 09:52 AM

[AT57:]

This is really all about delivery systems. At the end of the day, Internet access into vehicles will kill the satellite radio star. There will be so many options for audio entertainment - streaming 'old radio' stations, internet stations, 'Rhapsody-type services, etc. that your choice will be to pay for wi-fi or pay for SIRI/XM, relegated to their channels only. I'll take Internet access in the car vs. satellite radio. I don't think I'm alone.

2008 Sep 16 09:56 AM

[WellThisMig...:]

Dont worry, The market is only 30 min old today... Anything could happen... Hell they could anounce the refinancing deal at any time??...The lower the price goes, the more appetizing it looks!

2008 Sep 16 10:22 AM

[I'm Not Jim...:]

well this You're right! I'm planning on picking up some Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac when the price drops a penny or two. Got my Lehman earlier this morning.

2008 Sep 16 10:24 AM

[WellThisMig...:]

Your cool...

2008 Sep 16 10:26 AM

[WellThisMig...:]

SIRIUS/XM is going bankrupt! And crude oil is going to $200 by the end of september everyone. Quick drink the koolaid!!!!!!

2008 Sep 16 10:38 AM

[Sirius Road...:]

"Calling Dr. Kevorkian . . . calling Dr. Jack Kevorkian to the trading floor please . . . Dr. Jack Kevorkian to the trading floor"

ehh, at $0.71 and sinking I'm starting to run out of new material . . . where does one go next? rearranging the deck chairs? fiddling while Rome burned? monty python's dead parrot? (did all those already)

too easy . . . not even challenging anymore . . . starting to feel a little sorry for the one's I taunt (gee, I wonder if I'm developing Stockholm Syndrome?)

better get outta here quick . . . .

2008 Sep 16 11:10 AM

[Sirius Road...:]

oops . . . would be remiss if I didn't give a shout-out to the fat lady . . . you know, the one tuning up her vocal cords . . .

2008 Sep 16 11:17 AM

[WellThisMig...:]

wow an hour and a half into the trading day and we are already at our average volume... (Ding, Fasten seatbelt) "We are hitting some turbulance"

2008 Sep 16 11:20 AM

[WellThisMig...:]

MEL!!!! HELP!!!!!!

2008 Sep 16 11:20 AM

[Fitzman:]

should I buy more?

2008 Sep 16 11:45 AM

[hairpie:]

Ill buy more when it goes to 10 cents a share

2008 Sep 16 11:46 AM

[Fitzman:]

This has got to be a buy right? The product is GREAT! It doesn't make sense that 2 companies merge and then go under does it?

2008 Sep 16 11:53 AM

[WellThisMig...:]

Today is just another manipulation day... it means nothing about the company. You can tell because of the volume... we are already past the average and there is still 4 hours to go.

2008 Sep 16 11:57 AM

[between the...:]

Mel, where are you hiding? We need some news. Something.

2008 Sep 16 11:57 AM

[Fitzman:]

So, are you saying to buy?

2008 Sep 16 12:00 PM

[hairpie:]

Ever week I have been addidng more shares and they continue to lose money, i can't put anything else into it these companies until they make a move, it's unreal that they bring in $250,000,000 a month and the shares are worth less then a hamburger at McDonalds

2008 Sep 16 12:01 PM

[WellThisMig...:]

You should set a limit to how much money you would be willing to put into this stock... then continuing to average down...until you hit your limit. But you have to be firm and not go over your limit you set... or else bad things might happen and then you are just becoming a gambler.

2008 Sep 16 12:09 PM

[WellThisMig...:]

But yea at this price I think its a extremly good bargain... i have already hit my limit though : (

2008 Sep 16 12:09 PM

[between the...:]

I'm saying WORK Mel. Quit chilling.

2008 Sep 16 12:10 PM

[stock clerik:]

Sirius Roadkill...... so why is it you feel so good at all our demise.... and why do you bash our optimism no matter how unfounded you might think it may be..............did your mommy take away your nippy? Get a life dildo breath

2008 Sep 16 12:11 PM

[hairpie:]

All i know is that i needs to quadrouple at these prices for me to break even, what are the odds of that. So if I don't average down i will never get even, the bad thing is I'm out of money.

2008 Sep 16 12:14 PM

[WellThisMig...:]

Dont forget people... This its not like this is the only stock that's going down. It seems like all the bashers think this stock is the only one doing terrible. The whole market is shaken up right now.

2008 Sep 16 12:15 PM

[hairpie:]

Im Im not a basher, I love Sirius, NFL network is incredible, wouldn't be able to get thru the day without my Sirius.

2008 Sep 16 12:33 PM

[scumbag:]

oh god when will this end!!!!!!

2008 Sep 16 12:36 PM

[scumbag:]

Wait it went up 2 cents!!!!

2008 Sep 16 12:37 PM

[163888:]

hairpie, It is really closer to 200 million a month. Second as I said they are good till the first convert of 300 million due in Feb., of which 130 million GS wants to reconvert and so will the remaining investors of the 170 million in converts. Mel wants to screw GS and does not want to give GS a new convert he would rather just get a bank loan and pay them off. The worse case happens on this, is that SIRIXM has to reconvert GS converts. Next is the 350 million due in May, that has to be refinanced SIRIXM has the cash if needed to pay this off. Then they have the last 400 million in converts due in Dec. That is the first time that they may have some trouble if those investors that own those converts do not want to reconvert. That IMO will happen as I said before, noone wants pennys on the dollar when if they wait a little longer they can get their money back plus a profit. The fact is people that own the converts will take a company down to just get pennies on the dollar if they feel the company will not be able to ever pay them back because the business model is not ever going to show a profit, and may out right fail. Now even if what Mel said come true on his conservative estimates happens, then they will show that SIRIXM will be profitable and sustainable. Therefore there would be no reason not to reconvert the remaining converts.

2008 Sep 16 12:40 PM

[hairpie:]

16388, glad ur back on the message boards, do you think they will settle this Feb debt issue soon and also if they do will that start an upward swing in the stock. Are these debt issues the only thing keeping the stock in the shitter?

2008 Sep 16 12:51 PM

[relmor:]

Rare treat today if you watch KBH trade. Most Ive seen it manipulated in a while. If you cant stare at the level 2 and see how they are keeping it up, then I dont know what to tell you. Then watch a normal stock trade(no major banks, etc...) you will notice the difference. Sirius is up against this the other direction, but they use different tactics. I dont think Ive seen more than 5% real trades all day will KBH. No more than 2000 shares are trading hands, and its mostly 100 shares. No one buys 100 shares. Well, not many. Just shorters usually.

2008 Sep 16 01:04 PM

[relmor:]

O look at whats waiting for .74 cents. Ask is offering 200000 shares. The bids are offering to buy under 2000 7 ticks and under. With that kind of selling pressure, it should drop to .71 cents in under 20 seconds. Lets watch. Unheard of by the way. U just dont see that.

2008 Sep 16 01:12 PM

[relmor:]

They disappeared.

2008 Sep 16 01:12 PM

[relmor:]

Regrouping, ill tell u when they reappear. They werent sold, they withdrew as a unit, from 3 differnt trading windows at exactly the same instant. They will reappear at the same instant too, which is mathematically impossible to be a coincidence.

2008 Sep 16 01:13 PM

[163888:]

hairpie, I believe the finacing while is a concern, should be resolved in the end. I think Mel wants to settle this first part as soon as possible but does not want to give GS what it wants. I believe Mel made it clear, that he could resolve this issue now but does not want it to be like the terms he got from the deal he got at the time of the merger. That is the problem and something I have said before about it not being weather SIRIXM gets the financing done or not but on how good the terms are. Mel would like nothing more then to screw GS for what they have done to his company. The last resort would be for MEL to give GS exactly what GS wants. Which is a reconvert at a lower convert price and a higher interest rate. Think about it this way GS now has a convert price of something like 4.36 a share, GS would love to get that convert changed to .52 cents a share.

I also cannot understand why people think being delisted is the end of a stock, it is not. First of all it takes some time for that to happen after a stock drops below a buck. I think it is just over 6 months. Next even if it is delisted as long as the financials are taken care of, it is not the end of the company or your investment. It also can still be traded.

2008 Sep 16 01:16 PM

[relmor:]

After they drove it back under.74, they reappeared to keep it under. They appeared like magic. All numbers around it are in the hundreds or 1-3000, then the block of 27000 comes in.If it runs on it, it turns to 60k, then another window opens with 25k, etc... If they feel they cant hold, they retrace and use other ways to drop it, or wait for the market too, then they reappear.

2008 Sep 16 01:27 PM

[scumbag:]

16388 you are a wealth of information, you should be writing these articals

2008 Sep 16 01:30 PM

[relmor:]

Great post, by the way163888. Your exactly right, although Im not sure to what degree this isnt coordinated. I know you think Mel wants to screw GS, but Im not 100 percent convinced they arent working together to get this stock price down. GS probably said, you can keep the same interest rate, but I want the convert to be $1 a share. They said fine, well sit on news, make dumb comments, and lower guidance. GS says, ok, lol, well do the rest. Well do what were good at, driving stock prices in the direction we want them too.

2008 Sep 16 01:31 PM

[scumbag:]

when will this blood bath end

2008 Sep 16 01:31 PM

[WellThisMig...:]

163888 and relmor you guys are great reads... your comments give alot of valuable information and i enjoy reading them.

Thank you!! Much appreciated

P.S. (you guys give me HOPE for SIRI's future!!)

2008 Sep 16 01:47 PM

[163888:]

relmor, After seeing what Mel had to say about Mark W. of GS. I find that unlikely. I believe Mel is as pissed at GS as a person can be. GS is willing to reconvert their present converts because they know the truth that SIRIXM is going to survive and they want to make money, nothing personal. On the flip side of this is some good news though if SIRIXM does let GS reconvert then you can be sure that the remaining 350 million due in May will be refinanced. GS at that point will have every reason to make sure SIRIXM makes it.

2008 Sep 16 02:00 PM

[killerkaul:]

888s......... as cagey as Mel is, he could have let Mark W. have it....... to frost the cake on his deceptive collaboration with GS. {No opinion either way}........... Just a thought. killer.

2008 Sep 16 02:20 PM

[163888:]

killerkaul, Now I know you saw the interview Mel had with Cramer. You dont say what Mel had to say about Mark W., who represents GS., without feeling major anger towards them. Mel walked a fine line when he almost called Mark W. a criminal.

2008 Sep 16 02:33 PM

[I'm Not Jim...:]

Hmmm, let's say that you're right and that it's about GS manipulation. Mel should go to the goverment for intervention. Oh wait, the Secretary of the Treasury is the former head of Goldman Sachs you say? Mel, you don't see any black helicopters when you look out the window, do you . . . Mel, . . . uh Mel?

2008 Sep 16 02:38 PM

[WellThisMig...:]

I keep saying to myself "Tomarrow is a new day", but now everytime i wake up and look at this... i dont like new days : P

2008 Sep 16 02:48 PM

[163888:]

I have a question for people that think SIRIXM is in financial trouble. Why would they be spending almost 250 million to launch a satellite that is not absolutely needed till 2015, when the present ones are passed their OLS. I know you cant wait till the last minute to put a new one up, but you could wait til 2013 at least if the present ones are able to last till 2015. I have to say I would be very pissed if they did go bankrupt and spent 250 million on a satellite that they could not afford and did not absolutely need. My point is until I hear SIRIXM push that launch back, I have a hard time thinking they will even have a chance at going bankrupt.

2008 Sep 16 02:49 PM

[I'm Not Jim...:]

163888 you're right, that would probably be a bad business decision. Obviously Mel is a much . . . much. . . much better business man than that?

2008 Sep 16 02:55 PM

[WellThisMig...:]

Hey, does anyone think that maybe Mel was waiting to hear what the feds were going to do with interest rates today before he tried to refinance... ?
(was Mel hoping for a rate cut, and get a lowers interest refinance??)

2008 Sep 16 02:59 PM

[Kellascat:]

What if the company goes private or is sold?

2008 Sep 16 03:07 PM

[WellThisMig...:]

We get whatever the buyout price is...

2008 Sep 16 03:09 PM

[WellThisMig...:]

Hey 163888 or relmor, can you give our opinion on my last comment about Mel waiting for a Fed decision before refinancing??
Thanks if you can!

2008 Sep 16 03:11 PM

[WellThisMig...:]

I meant Your****

2008 Sep 16 03:12 PM

[SIRI, go up!:]

S&P MAINTAINS BUY OPINION ON SHARES OF SIRIUS XM RADIO

SNPMarketScopeResearch... 15:10:25.000SIRISIRIUS XM RADIOT. Amobi - CPA, CFAS&P MAINTAINS BUY OPINION ON SHARES OF SIRIUS XM RADIOWe believe recent market activity has renewed concerns about SIRI's near-term ability to navigate tough economic and financial terrains. Among reasons we note for unexpectedly sharp sell-off in recent months are a lackluster post-merger update that suggests slowing unit growth, along with mounting concerns about looming debt refi as tight credit markets takes further hold. We are more cautious on potential near-term after selloff, and expect some decisive steps sooner, rather than later, as SIRI treads new realm of potential non-compliance with NASDAQ minimum price rule.

2008 Sep 16 03:27 PM

[163888:]

Well This Might Be SIRIUS?, IMO no he was not. Correct me if I am wrong, but that had to deal with short term interest rates.

2008 Sep 16 03:38 PM

[WellThisMig...:]

ok thank you

2008 Sep 16 03:39 PM

[163888:]

I'm not Jim Cramer, you would think so wouldn't you. That is the problem I am having and asked the people that think SIRIXM is in such trouble financially.

2008 Sep 16 03:40 PM

[163888:]

I'm not Jim Cramer, It to me does not make any sense. The satellites that are up now have (according the last 10-K) orbital life spans that still takes them into 2015. I know there are things on the new satellites that SIRIXM would like to have as part of their system. The question is, what is it needed and what is wanted. From what I read and understand it is a want and not a need.

2008 Sep 16 03:51 PM

[SIRI, go up!:]

up up up!

2008 Sep 16 04:03 PM

[SIRI, go up!:]

tomorrow it will hit 1.00

2008 Sep 16 04:06 PM

[hairpie:]

Nice ralley

2008 Sep 16 04:23 PM

[SIRI, go up!:]

Tonight it will hit 1.00, yeah!

2008 Sep 16 04:25 PM

[between the...:]

With oil prices going down and the Fed fighting inflation, could be a huge Christmas season. UPOD. Go Mel!

2008 Sep 16 04:46 PM

[sl62:]

relmor...

Do you have LVL 2? If so, were you viewing at the close? How many MM's pulled bids at 3:58 when the price went from .77 to .88 in one up tick? I saw it in real-time but don't have L2 to see the MM's.

This my investor friends, is how the manipulation happens...hang in there longs...what you are seeing right now is a classic Wall Street play. SIRI's price today has NO BEARING WHATSOEVER on either the health or viability of the company. Don't jump!

2008 Sep 16 04:59 PM

[WellThisMig...:]

I remember earlier today... when the stock was down like $0.13 and i said don't worry its early in the trading day........see what good things can come out of nowhere. : D

2008 Sep 16 05:49 PM

[cos1000:]

I bought like the committed fool that I am, another 1500 shares at .83. Couldn’t figure out what the stock price was doing but believe in the company just the same.

Today I heard about the new Slacker, the same old Pandora royalty problem , Apple - Ipod connections using software fixes and I don’t really care. The reality is that this company is in your new car right now and half of the installed equipment is not even turned on. Its just waiting to generate revenue.

Programming of the company can be on the internet anywhere in the world right now with your subscription. It already has consistent programming nationwide, soon to be the “best of” content anywhere with a lot more than music, and the stock price definitely sucks right now.

I have been saying along with those here, that the debt, unlike some people have said, matters. The next 60 days will determine the companies future in the investment world and to us retail investors.

If they don’t secure financing for the Feb, 09 debt, all confidence will be gone. With that secured, pushing the May 09, currently Performing Credit facility should be easy enough.

In the financial “Killing Fields”, which have now and always will be Wall Street towards companies not able to pay for their debt, this company will survive or fail.

With what will easily be over $3 billion in revenue, there isn’t any way that they won’t secure financing. Banks, Investment Banks, and Private Equity, make money by lending money to those companies that can pay them back at a premium. There aren’t many options for them either.

This business model will be funded, period. There aren’t many opportunities for those lending money to improve their balance sheet right now. This company pays its bills, now and in the future. I am long Sirius and will be until its over.

So worrying about whether you paid .65 or .75 or .85 cents for this stock is prudent, but irrelevant. Bankruptcy in this economy and the general market is real to a lot of companies whose business model has just collapsed. That is not what is going on with this company. JMHO.

2008 Sep 16 05:58 PM

[WellThisMig...:]

Amen

2008 Sep 16 06:01 PM

[bdp:]

A recap of my post from 9/12 :

"I bought as many shares as I could as the price was dropping and have no regrets what so ever. As everyone knows, the reality of the market is that rumor and irrational emotional reactions toss it about. This forces panic selling among the long holders with the short sellers and options traders cleaning up the spoils. This is just a fact with many getting caught up in the mindset of doom and remorse. Now for some personal speculation. As far as coming up with their $300 mil. and $400 mil. payments, there is no financial institution on the planet that would let this one slide into default. Especially not in the current climate. Think about it. Bankruptcy means collecting ultimately only pennies on the dollar and being trapped in years of litigation, which would throw their investment into the same place where many now hold their heads. This also would have a ripple effect across the board for them causing further reaching damage. This approach is really not an intellegent option. Mel K. is playing his cards exactly the way he should with his conservative figures and hazy confidence regarding the February payment deadline. He is leveraging Sirius’ position into a 6-month window to pressure the financiers to ultimately negotiate that “sweeter deal” Sirius should inevitably acquire. By making his announcement, he has left investors scratching their heads, with many of you playing “follow the looser” off a cliff and pulling the price down with you. With just a few words, he has effectively put pressure on the lending institution to scramble quickly to the negotiating table before the stock value and public confidence of the company that they have a huge sum of money invested in plummets even further down the tubes toward oblivion. This would make it more difficult to realize a payback of their loan investment at all. I would still look for the price to bottom out around .67 within the next few weeks before we see any steady upturn. For me, I am going to patiently hold on to my 300,000 shares and ride this one out till the end!"

Well, it bottomed out today at .68 and I bought 15500 more shares. I may ultimately be wrong, but so far all my instincts seem to be pointing in the right direction. Now for another crystal ball prediction. Siri will be trading consistently on the north side of $1 by Friday of next week. I also think that it is probable that there will be a huge surge once the refinancing terms are in place. This may take a few months, but in the meantime it seems that the shorts are exhausting themselves and the stock price will be controlled by the long holders, easing the price up to the $2 mark before the refinancing news is released. This could mean that Siri could be trading closer to the $3 mark by the years end. Just expect massive upticks like todays to repeat themselves over the next few weeks (as well as some down turns) And for the love of God... HOLD YOUR SHARES LONG LONG LONG AND DON'T PANIC!!! You know panic is what drives the market down! If you are fearful of losing your hard earned cash you should never invest in the market in the first place! After all, the stock market has become a casino with the only difference being your money does not vaporize until you cash out. My exact share count as of today is 322,554. I have another buy order in for tomorrow for 16000 more shares at .77. That will put my average at 1.29 per share and I am holding with that.

2008 Sep 16 06:02 PM

[sl62:]

Right on...

Ok. So now we see SIRI is DOWN .03 (from yesterday's close) @ .82 in the after hours (bid/ask .82/.83). If anyone saw what happened today @ 3:58-9P (one minute before the close, jacking from .76 to .88 in one tick) you just saw how fast SIRI will take off WHEN (not if) the new financing gets done (and which will now happen even sooner than Mel might have even thought due to the swing below $1). This is not '02, where they had the luxury of taking their time. They now have people to answer to big time--among others, can you say Howard Stern and his 34M shares he got as part of his $500M deal? He and his agent have lost a ton of cash and are not happy. Howard's not quite everything the company is, but he put them on the map and keeps them there. But today's EOD action shows how fast the MM's will raise their bids on positive news. Believe it, they are scared shitless to be down at this level, knowing how wound up things are to the downside--yet they will keep pounding it lower...unti they have a reason not to. Today may well have just been the bottom but maybe not since they closed up. I think short of the "the big news" they might still be able to close in the .70's (dipping again into the .60's intraday)--but we're close. My guess is that there must have been a rumor right at the end today and it was run for the hills--quickly exposing the higher priced MM's--thus the quick jump. After the rumor is exposed as untrue, it's right back down. Whenever SIRI announces the refi news-after the 4PM close or in premarket, this stock is going to scream it's going up so fast, as all the MM's scramble to get out of the way--as they keep trying to outraise the other. If you've ever watched that happen, it's a beautiful thing.

A current tchnical:

************
RSI

According to the RSI which is currently at 26.09%, below the critical value of 30, SIRI is oversold. This means that there has been significant recent downward momentum that is not sustainable. Although the stock may not begin to rally, selling pressure can not continue at this level.
***********

A pretty good article from today. The takeaway from this NON-HOLDING gent is all of the upside. He includes the few downsides as due diligence, but his bent on the prognosis of the company is actually positive. For all the reasons he's listed, no way SIRI is going anywhere but up once the cloud is lifted. Hang in there longs...

**********
A Sirius Gamble (SIRI)
September 16, 2008 | By Ben McClure

While Sirius XM Radio (Nasdaq:SIRI) is worth a look, it’s not for the faint of heart. The satellite digital radio broadcaster's stock has the potential to at least double in value in the next 12 months, yet the risk of it disappearing off the radar screen altogether is equally high. Sirius XM is out-and-out gambling and is only for those with nerves of steel.

Sirius XM shareholders are probably feeling like one of the company’s satellites has crashed on their heads. Since Sirius and XM completed their merger at the end of July, the stock has plunged more than 70% and is now trading for about 70 cents. Back in December, the stock was $3.75.

You can’t blame investors for cutting and running. Sirius XM is sitting atop scary levels of debt. The merged company now has more than $3.4 billion in debt, with more than $1 billion of it coming due next year, including $300 million in convertible senior notes due as early as February. Running cash flow negative, Sirius XM won’t have enough cash to pay off the debt on its own steam. (Learn about debt ratios and how to use them to assess a company's financial health in Debt Reckoning.)

In the midst of a full-blown crisis affecting lending markets, getting some of that debt refinanced before February will be no easy feat for Triple C-rated Sirius XM. Without a debt repayment or a refinancing, Sirius XM shareholders could see the value of their shares descend deeper, possibly to zero. Yikes.

So, think of an investment in Sirius XM as a bet that the company can pull off a financing deal. The risk of failure is high, but there are reasons to think the company will make it through the next year.

For one, it’s hard to imagine Sirius XM’s creditors pulling the plug on the company without too much reluctance. Lenders recognize that the company, while cash-strapped, is not failing. They know that if its looming debt obligations are resolved, Sirius XM will be a self-sustaining business.

The company is increasing revenue while quickly decreasing costs. Pro-forma revenue should come in at roughly $2.4 billion this year and $2.7 billion next year. With synergies from the merger of Sirius and XM tallying up to more than $425 million per year, Sirius XM management projects EBITDA to move from a $350 million loss this year to a $300 million gain in 2009. A white knight that steps in will get a piece of a going concern with an encouraging cash flow outlook.

Sirius XM could also do a deal with an industry partner looking to take advantage of its large and growing subscriber base. The newly merged Sirius XM is expected to close out the year with 19.5 million satellite radio subscribers. Its target for next year is 21.5 million. To put that number into perspective, the company's subscriber numbers are not far behind those of cable giant Comcast (Nasdaq:CMCSA), which has 24.6 million subscribers. Potential partners that come to mind are Apple (Nasdaq:AAPL), Microsoft (Nasdaq:MSFT) and satellite TV operators such as DirecTV (NYSE:DTV) and Dish Network (Nasdaq:DISH).

At the same time, while it would be a tough sell in the current credit environment, going private may be another option for Sirius XM. The prospect of sustainable free cash flow could be a draw for adventurous private equity and leveraged buyout investors. (For more on this topic, read Private Equity A Trendsetter For Stocks.)

Sirius XM CEO Mel Karmazin certainly has the wherewithal to clinch a financing deal. Karamazin is arguably one of the top media executives of the last few decades, having sat at the top management positions at both CBS (NYSE:CBS) and Viacom (NYSE:VIA).

The upside on a successful deal may be well worth rolling the dice on Sirius XM. If Karmazin can make things happen, the share price will almost certainly head higher. According to various Wall Street analysts, Sirius XM could be worth anywhere between $2 and $5 per share.

Unless it gets its act together, Sirius XM runs the risk of going broke. Equally, a resolution of its debt obligations will restore confidence in the stock. Blue sky and speculative - that's the gamble.
By Ben McClure

Ben McClure is director of McClure & Co., an independent research consultancy. Before founding McClure & Co., Ben was a highly-rated European equities analyst at city of London-based Old Mutual Securities. He also spent several years as a business/technology journalist at the Economist Group. Mr. McClure graduated from the University of Alberta School of Business with an MBA.
At the time of writing Ben McClure did not own shares in any of the companies mentioned in this article.
************

2008 Sep 16 07:12 PM

[WellThisMig...:]

I sure feel like a satellite crashed on my head

2008 Sep 16 07:28 PM

[Up the tail...:]

I have not sold my shares. Will you guys still pump this stock at 10 cents. All I have heard is how it can't go bankrupt or the stock can't go any lower since it was 3 a share. Why do some analist talk about bankruptcy than? Are they just stupid. And those who say Mel is in on this to help the financing deal get through. Im not buying that. I do believe that GS would f u c k a dead dog in the a s s for 25 cents. What ever happens to SIRI I hope it is good but I can't wait till GS goes to 20 a share and they will. They are in just as much trouble as the others, they have been hiding it better. If GS could recoup losses by running SIRI in the ground they would do it. Every investment bank out there would screw their Mom to get out of trouble. SIRI may not be worth selling at this point but I am not very optimistic. I hope for all the longs like me it pays off. We went from an easy 5 dollar stock after merge to penny's and talk of bankruptcy. Hard to be encouraged by 10 or 15 cents up in a day.

2008 Sep 16 08:30 PM

[between the...:]

Alright, I'm going to break it down straight for you. Sattellite radio is freaking awesome and regular radio sucks. To keep this business viable, Mel you need to get off your butt, get on any media possible, and tell us now how the heck you are planning to raise the money. One billion is a lot of darn money. You need to get some dam money to pay your debts. You are the darn man at running business. Act like it. Cut the crap out of your expenses. Get it done. Talk with the employees about keeping this business running. They will likely give you some good ideas and may even agree to a pay decrease or cheaper work space to improve the balance sheet. At one bill in debt, you need to be in the freaking country, not in NY. Cut the hell out of unneccessary buildings, expenditures, paper, everything and tell them that this company will shine in the future, but its books look like itsnow shined with a freaking Hershey bar. I'm tired of people thinking that they can lay back. This is a freaking fiction. Get this darn product in other countries tommorrow. Get me a cool radio. Get in there, roll those darn sleeves up, innovate, get cheap real estate, leave the expensive area. Open up a country office. Cut Expenses. Cut Expenses. Cut Expenses. That way you can live lavishly at home later and work like a dog at work. You shouldn't get a heaven to work in. If you work hard enough, at the end of the day, your pillow should feel like heaven. Mel, act now. Get in there. Motivate, cut expenses, reduce overhead, take care of the customer, hope is not part of the equation, cut expenses, cut expenses, cut expenses. KNOW YOUR EXPENSES and CUT THEM NOW. Get in there. Men like to listen about beer, sports, and boobs. Women like to hear about how they look beautiful and the latest fashion crap. Work that some how. Get me a darn radio that can flash "pimp" accross it. The college kids love that crap. Come on Mel, lets get some Budweiser frogs in there. Come on man. Lets get nasty. The harder you work at innovating, cutting expenses, the more passionate your company will get and you will succeed. If you rest on your laurels with 1 bill in debt, you will fail. Get in there. You are a passionate man. Work it Mel. Work it Dog.

2008 Sep 16 10:36 PM

[between the...:]

Americans need to realize we aren't at work to drink freaking lattes on the company dollar and fart around. We are there to make money for those who have taken the risk. I'm tired of hearing about how tough life it. Work is supposed to suck. You are supposed to work your butt off for the company. Take care of work now and work will take care of you later. Do you think that Knowshon Moreno, of Georgia Bulldogs, got to be a good running back by not working out day and night, busting his ass to learn his position, and then working out again. Hell no, he works out works, works, works. He is a freaking worker. Work Sirius XM employees. You are awesome. Work to achieve greatness. Work, work, work. Mel, this is the end of the fourth quarter. Cut expenses tommorrow. No freaking extras. Cut them. Use the money to develop something radically cool. Something no one else thinks of. You can do it. Then the money will flow like wine. AIG will be asking you for bucks. To be Apple, you need to think like Apple. They play to win, not to drag along. You already are a winner, but don't rest. I know that you are tired from winning at the merger. You fought hard. You now have to dig deep into yourself. New company. Needs to act like it. Fight harder to make this company that you fought so hard for great. You have won a battle, now win the war. Get us something that we can't live without. What do humans like? Stupid stuff that makes us happy. Give us the next IPOD, the next Walkman, the next Xbox. You employees need to serve us lattes not get them from SIRI. Get in there. You are not great yet. You need to work to acheive it. Come on man, you can do it.

2008 Sep 16 10:52 PM

[killerkaul:]

163888............... I did see the Cramer/Mel interview, and I do agree {like you do} from all appearances, that Mel was showing his true feelings, however........... that said, Mel is not a man I would very much care to play high stakes poker with. I have to also strongly agree with your accessment of the satelite/launch date theory. Kudos.

2008 Sep 16 11:02 PM

[relmor:]

Whoever asked about the level 2 and the waiting for what the FED will do next before refinancing.
I was watching level 2 today, but not when that jump happened. I might be to avoid buy triggers. Not sure. It could have been a natural market fuction, or it might be like you said, they pulled bids. It means they think at close, those might no longer be valid. Maybe they jumped the gun to begin new shorts at that position, giving up ground, as in an atrition battle in war.
As for waiting, no I dont think thats why Mel is waiting. I think he has the deal, and knows exactly what he is doing. If that satellite is unnecessary, then kudos for finding that out. They that further proves my theory of Mel being in on the manipulation. Another cost burden to worry investors with, to help the buyins drive the price down, and you out of your shares. He knows they are getting the refianancing, or hes purposefully trying to tank the stock, bankrupt the company, and sell it off on the cheap, or lose everything. The latter is not my thinking, I will take the former. Market action today should be thrown out due to heavy manipulation and speculation on the FED decision.
But you see all the terrible news stories, the AP ran a false message, saying shares plummetted, but forgot to mention that they recovered, and had gains. The story came out at 7:30 pm, so there is no excuss. That further proves manipulation, do you really think its a coincidence all these stories after days of nothing are random? Why do they care so much? OMG, you find more negative about Sirius than you did about Fannie and Freddie leading up to their bankrupcies. Which further proves my theory of manipulation, because thats how the markets work. Its a magic show, dont look over here, look over here.
Now they are driving the stock down, we know this. That is banked information.
Now why?
1. To get you out of your shares and the big money in. Most probable senario viewing all the facts. But the most unlikely if you believe that the world is full of pricks out to get your money. Much easier for Sirius to screw current stockholders than pay for the debt any other way. It would have to be a matter of pride, morality, and fair play for this one to work. We basically have to trust Mel. Is he out for the stockholders first, the company, or himself?
2. To bankrupt the company, and sell it off on a low bid offer, to a third party buyer who can pay off the debt, and promises to keep old management, and offer them shares in their company(Comcast, Microsoft, whoever)
3. To go private on the cheap, and screw you out of the future earning, shutting you up for 2 dollars a share, which you will feel great about since the stock was at .68 cents. Its all about lowered expectations with this senario. The high anaylist guidance does not support this theory, but more of the #2 theory.

2008 Sep 17 01:37 AM

[relmor:]

Whoever asked about the level 2 and the waiting for what the FED will do next before refinancing.
I was watching level 2 today, but not when that jump happened. I might be to avoid buy triggers. Not sure. It could have been a natural market fuction, or it might be like you said, they pulled bids. It means they think at close, those might no longer be valid. Maybe they jumped the gun to begin new shorts at that position, giving up ground, as in an atrition battle in war.
As for waiting, no I dont think thats why Mel is waiting. I think he has the deal, and knows exactly what he is doing. If that satellite is unnecessary, then kudos for finding that out. They that further proves my theory of Mel being in on the manipulation. Another cost burden to worry investors with, to help the buyins drive the price down, and you out of your shares. He knows they are getting the refianancing, or hes purposefully trying to tank the stock, bankrupt the company, and sell it off on the cheap, or lose everything. The latter is not my thinking, I will take the former. Market action today should be thrown out due to heavy manipulation and speculation on the FED decision.
But you see all the terrible news stories, the AP ran a false message, saying shares plummetted, but forgot to mention that they recovered, and had gains. The story came out at 7:30 pm, so there is no excuss. That further proves manipulation, do you really think its a coincidence all these stories after days of nothing are random? Why do they care so much? OMG, you find more negative about Sirius than you did about Fannie and Freddie leading up to their bankrupcies. Which further proves my theory of manipulation, because thats how the markets work. Its a magic show, dont look over here, look over here.
Now they are driving the stock down, we know this. That is banked information.
Now why?
1. To get you out of your shares and the big money in. Most probable senario viewing all the facts. But the most unlikely if you believe that the world is full of pricks out to get your money. Much easier for Sirius to screw current stockholders than pay for the debt any other way. It would have to be a matter of pride, morality, and fair play for this one to work. We basically have to trust Mel. Is he out for the stockholders first, the company, or himself?
2. To bankrupt the company, and sell it off on a low bid offer, to a third party buyer who can pay off the debt, and promises to keep old management, and offer them shares in their company(Comcast, Microsoft, whoever)
3. To go private on the cheap, and screw you out of the future earning, shutting you up for 2 dollars a share, which you will feel great about since the stock was at .68 cents. Its all about lowered expectations with this senario. The high anaylist guidance does not support this theory, but more of the #2 theory.

2008 Sep 17 01:37 AM

[relmor:]

Another point about why they might be tanking the stock. It actually would be pump and dump if they wanted further dilution. They never pumped it, so its probably done being diluted. No worries their, I would gather based on that knowledge of why spec stocks move and how.

2008 Sep 17 01:41 AM

[relmor:]

O, and the guy using Technical Analysis on Sirius...

Forget it. Not now. Its been oversold for a month now. It was oversold the day it dropped from 2.30 to 1.60. Its been oversold since, lol.
Spec stocks dont trade well using technicals. Hard to use its history, because the fundamentals of the stock change too quickly.

2008 Sep 17 01:44 AM

[CoverIsBetter:]

I know this thread is so long now, I may get no readers. But it helps me to vent that THERE IS ADVERTISING on the XM. All morning, I am trying to get the financials from CNBC, and commercials play. On Bloomberg channel, what do you get? Damn commercials about Bloomberg channel. Hey idiots! I am already a paying listener, you don't need to advertise yourself on your own channel!

Also, I would like to complain about what happened to the ESPN channel. I used to get 'Around the Horn' and PTI on my way home from work, and now they are gone. Hanks Place turned into WIllies Place and now that sucks.

All this makes me want to move closer to work, just to stay off the road.
The only saving grace, maybe, is hearing Public Enemy on that sunny Sunday afternoon that I just can't stand another freakin' minute of the
stupid-burbs where I live.

Conclusion : The service is not worth the fees, and does not live up to the mammoth effort spent to provide it.

2008 Sep 17 02:03 PM

[killerkaul:]

Long threads mean nothing to me, as far as taking the time to read all comments go. I just appreciate all of the time researching that relmor,cos1000, and 163888 take on this sirius issue, as well as all of the time they spend typing. Without the help you provide for the rest of us little guys, we would be but railing riders on the Titanic.............. without a life raft. Thanks again guys.

2008 Sep 17 04:24 PM

[NiceMac LLC:]

StarPlayr, the multi-platform award winning Sirius Internet Radio streamer will change the face of Sirius XM and turn this young star into the best and brightest digital media & entertainment company since Disney.

2008 Sep 19 08:41 PM

[siriusbuyers:]

i dont really care about all of you guys comments... all i know is that i will keep on buying sirius shares no matter if they are goin bankrupt or not.. I have put in atleast 25K worth of shares and im sure they will pick up again... do you really know what stocks are all about? Its just a bunch of people speculating about how much the company is really worth.. Siri is worth way more than its stocks say..

2008 Sep 20 02:17 PM