Microsoft's Seinfeld Campaign: Will It Play Outside of Peoria?

In all of the attention given to Microsoft's (MSFT) selection of an aging comedian to be its voice to a wider computer and software market whose tastes skew quite young, very little attention is given to a larger question:

Even if Jerry Seinfeld retains relevance and power within the United States, how is this $300 million campaign going to help the company outside of the English-speaking world, in places like China, Brazil, India, and Russia that will decide the future of the company? As Wilson Ng at SunStar Cebu points out, there are more Windows users in the world than there are English speakers.

The Global Windows Appeal

Jerry is a nice guy, after all, but he is not exactly a global icon. Microsoft needs help around the world with the challenges it faces, and that goes beyond dealing with Apple (AAPL). Granting for the sake of argument that Microsoft will succeed to an extent with its Seinfeld effort in the U.S., the company needs a global consumer campaign designed to win back (or just "win") the support of consumers around the world. And the company cannot wait for the next version of either Windows or the XBox to do it.

Naturally, the focus of the campaign will be different, because of the severity of threats Microsoft faces worldwide, and especially here in China:

• Piracy, or the sale and use of unlicensed or under-licensed copies of Windows. (By under-licensed, I mean the retail re-sale of software meant to be sold only with a new computer, so-called OEM packages);

• Free and Open Source Software [FOSS) (i.e., Linux, Firefox, etc.), and

• Localized policy efforts fighting the Microsoft monopoly and what is perceived as monopolistic-rent type costs for necessary upgrades.

In China, Microsoft has focused most of its efforts to date on working with its OEM partners (i.e, computer manufacturers) to get them to purchase genuine OEM packages to install on the computers they sell, and on large organizations to end workplace piracy in massive enterprises and government organizations. They've made appreciable progress there, a testament (in my opinion) to the locally-savvy efforts orchestrated by Microsoft China's Genuine Software czar David Ben Kay and a highly supportive Tim Chen - both of whom have now left Microsoft to pursue other passions.

The Coming Global Consumer Campaign

The efforts David and Tim started will continue, but the gaping hole in Microsoft's efforts remains with the consumer. But I suspect this is about to end, and the corporate support for the Seinfeld campaign is going to give Microsoft's marketers around the world the chance to tackle a long-overdue consumer campaign. I'd bet we see something not long after the New Year, possibly even in time for Chinese New Year holiday season.

The cost will not be insignificant. A back-of-the-paper-napkin guesstimate would put the cost of a global Microsoft feel-good campaign at between three and five times the planned spend on the Seinfeld campaign, with probably 20% of that going to greater China. Microsoft has the cash, so the cost really is not the problem.

The problem is connection. If Microsoft turns the Seinfeld campaign into a win, it will be because the company's decision-makers - the guys with their finger on the budget button - have a superior grasp of consumer marketing and retain something of a psychic connection to the people who use Windows in the U.S. and the other anglophone markets where Jerry might have an impact.

Whether Microsoft has or can build that psychic connection in China and markets around the world, and whether the executives in each of Microsoft's respective "subs" possess strong consumer marketing skills will determine whether such a campaign has a shot at success.

The Seinfeld campaign is a signal. Whatever needs to happen at Microsoft to get the software development machine back on track will only be the beginning of what they need to accomplish. The other part is turning Microsoft into a genuine consumer marketing organization.

Because the global standard in the technology and innovative industries now lies at the nexus of superior products and powerful communications.

Comments

[Chris B:]

MSFT is one of those companies that looks like a great investment on paper, but is vulnerable to decline. Simply put, Windows is an inferior product. It's bloated and slows even the fastest machines. It is unstable and crashes often. Its basic design is to run any commands sent to it by any user. That worked great in the pre-internet era, but now it is inherently insecure and no number of patches will change that. Finally, after a few years, you will be forced to upgrade both your software and your hardware when MSFT cuts off the availability of security patches.

Finally, MSFT has open source competition that is (a) more secure, (b) more stable, (c) faster, (d) free in many cases! (e) just as easy to use and (f) already established and respected in the server market.

Don't buy a stock with an inferior product and superior competitors selling below their cost. GM may have hung on for years, but MSFT's eventual decline is more likely to resemble Yahoo's! A lot of backwards-looking investors are going to get burned someday on this one.

2008 Sep 15 04:33 PM

[jack dee:]

Chris B, I heard your mom calling you to come in for dinner.

MSFT does have some work to do outside the USA / EU. Fraud has and continues to be pretty good for MSFT. For one thing without it Opensource would do much better. It trains in millions of people to the Microsoft way. While it does reduce income per copy being used I believe it may increase to amount of units sold by continuing to entrench the MSFT position.

Worldwide the money might be better spent lobbying and developing relationships.

2008 Sep 15 04:49 PM

[User 204570:]

The new ads with Jerry Seinfeld are long and boring; they try to be funny and not even a cpycat of apple's ads. That won't sell more vista's; apple has been selling because of jazzy hardware and a very good easy and stable environment.

2008 Sep 15 08:08 PM

[User 204570:]

The new ads with Jerry Seinfeld are long and boring; they try to be funny and not even a copycat of apple's ads. That won't sell more vista's; apple has been selling because of jazzy hardware and a very good easy and stable environment.

2008 Sep 15 08:09 PM

[Alex Filonov:]

I'm afraid Microsoft is gradually becoming irrelevant. Sure, they still have their OS installed on 90% (probably more like 85% now) PCs and on about 40% servers. They still make huge money on it. But they are irrelevant to the technology development. Developments are happening in Apple and (even more) in free software. MSFT is trying to get a foothold in other markets and can't do it.

Disclosure: long Apple (and not happy about it lately), Red Hat and Google.

2008 Sep 15 09:31 PM

[DecaturHeel:]

Now, if only Vandelay Industries would hire Jerry to promote their latex products…THAT partnership would rock! "And you want to buy MY latex products."

2008 Sep 16 09:11 AM

[brewer:]

Microsoft has always been technologically irrelevant. Their only real 'innovation' is in their shady business practices. FUD, Vaporware, embrace and extend, etc...

The amazing thing is that people are so willing to assume they will succeed---like this article for example--claiming to just assume they will be successful with these totally idiotic ads.

The stock has been a dog for years. Sure, it's stable, any pays dividends, but it has had no gains since the 90's basically. You might as well put your money in the mattress (not a bad investment strategy lately actually) than to expect any real gains on your MSFT investment.

You say money is irrelevant to Microsoft. That is so stupid, that is the only thing they care about. Isn't that obvious when you look at their products? There is no polish, no style, no functionality in so many places where things should work (compared to Mac, for example).

Microsoft basically GAVE away Office and Windoze to the Chinese for $7 a copy, whereas they charge and arm and a leg for their software everywhere else (unless you get it with a computer in which case they are more than happy to only charge $50 to add you into the monopoly.)

2008 Sep 17 08:19 PM