Stocks discussed on the in-depth session of Jim Cramer's Mad Money TV Program, Friday October 26.
14 Things To Watch In The Week Ahead: Burger King (BKW), Cirrus Logic (CRUS), Allergan (AGN), Ford (F), Sirius (SIRI), Clorox (CLX), Exelon (EXC), General Motors (GM), Ralph Lauren (RL), Chart Industries (GTLS), Kellogg (K), Chesapeake Energy (CHK), Beam (BEAM), Chevron (CVX), Lowe's (LOW).
Cramer discussed things to watch in the week ahead:
Allergan (AGN) is investing heavily in research and development and has seen success with its products, but the stock is up only 4% for the year. Cramer expects to hear from its earnings report that it will have a huge 2013.
Ford (F) is in the midst of a major restructuring, but for every step forward domestically, the company takes two steps back in Europe and Latin America. Cramer thinks the stock has a chance to break out above $11, but probably not in the near future.
Sirius (SIRI) may be taken over by Liberty Media (LMCA), and this might be the last conference call with CEO Mel Karmazin, who managed to rescue the company during its last crisis. "Come on the show, Mel, let's talk," said Cramer, who thinks the stock is capped. "I won't buy it without Mel."
Clorox (CLX) tends to sell off on its earnings report. Cramer would sell the stock before it reports and buy it back after the conference call.
Exelon (EXC) has a huge 6% yield, which is higher than most utility companies. Cramer would pay attention to its earnings to see if there is something wrong with the company.
Ralph Lauren (RL) has gone down 13 straight points, and Cramer would pay attention to this conference call. The stock trades wildly on earnings, so Cramer would be careful with RL.
Chart Industries (GTLS) should give information about the future of natural gas.
Kellogg (K) was a consistent performer, had a few dark years, and looks like it is taking off again; "This is an anti-fiscal cliff stock if there ever was one."
Chesapeake Energy (CHK) is worth buying on Wednesday ahead of earnings. CEO Aubrey McClendon "is the most confident I have heard him in multiple years." The company is raising cash and is growing production by 20%. "This is a newer, more conservative CHK."
Chevron (CVX) pre-announced a lackluster number, but Cramer thinks it is undervalued. If the stock is down approaching earnings and oil is strong, Cramer would buy CVX with deep in the money calls.
The October non-farm payroll employment number is important so close to the election. These numbers have created a firestorm of controversy, and any positive number tends to breed skepticism. For investors who believe the skepticism will continue, it might be a good idea to short stocks into the opening. Cramer thinks a solid employment number will be good for housing stocks.
Cramer took some calls:
Deckers (DECK) was downgraded, is down 75%, and Cramer thinks the company has lost control of pricing and costs. People who hold the stock want to get out of it, so Cramer would wait to buy it.
Broadcom (BRCM) is ridiculously cheap and Cramer would buy it.
CEO Interview: Rick Hamada, Avnet (AVT)
Fall used to be the prime season for tech stocks, with the coming of the holidays and companies exhausting their IT budgets at the end of the year. However, tech stocks have been not performing well, and Cramer wonders if the rule that fall is tech season will no longer apply.
Avnet (AVT) is "the biggest supermarket of tech on Earth" and pre-announced to to the downside. It missed earnings estimates by a penny and revenues fell 8.7%. The only bright spot was that guidance was better than expected. However, the weakness was not with Europe or Asia, but with the Americas, which Cramer thinks is a very bad sign for the domestic economy. Revenues were down 14%, and the stock trades at a low multiple of 7.5.
"Your conference call depressed me," Cramer told CEO Rick Hamada, who admitted that "we had a very disappointing bottom line." What made this conference call worse than others was the weakness in the West; Asia was not so bad. Although the company's guidance was lower, it wasn't as low as The Street expected. However, the company is using the weakness in the stock to buy back shares; "We think this is a good investment."
Cramer commented that Avnet "is an honest company that tells the truth ... I feel the risk is taken out of the stock."
Cramer put Procter & Gamble (PG) CEO Bob McDonald on the CEO Wall of Shame only to regret this move and remove him from the wall a month ago. Cramer said that the problems with PG were not the fault of the current CEO, who inherited a "bloated and dysfunctional company." Cramer confessed he was impatient with the restructuring efforts, which are now bearing fruit, and added that a company as large as PG can't be turned around on a dime. The company reported a ten cent earnings beat with growth up and a gross margin increase of 50%. PG had been losing market share, but is now gaining market share and is producing innovative products. Its $10 billion cost cutting strategies are creating value for the company. Cramer thinks the stock is worth buying, and noted that it yields 3.2%.
Cramer took some calls:
Kimberly Clark (KMB) is okay because of the dividend, but Cramer prefers PG.
mcCormick (MKC) is consistent, and although the stock has not done much, now is a great time to buy.
Texas Capital Bancshares (TCBI) reported a 2 cent earnings beat and an improvement in deposits and loans, but one thing that is disconcerting is that its interest margin came in at only 4.36%. This is higher than many other banks, but is a decline from last year and last quarter. Although it has the advantage of being tied to the energy market, TCBI trades at a premium to its peers. Cramer likes Keycorp (KEY) better, which just posted a 17 basis point increase in net interest margin and has strong loan growth.
F-5 (FFIV) reported a disappointing quarter and should have farther to fall.
DSW (DSW) is a solid retail play.
DeVita (DVA) is a winning stock, and Cramer says he regrets not having mentioned it in a while. "You should stay in it."
The Apple and Amazon (AMZN) Double Standard
The Street has a double standard when dealing with Apple and Amazon (AMZN). Apple swooned 18 points on inconsistent criticisms from analysts about inventory, pricing, sales and cash on the books. The stock gets punished whether inventories are lean or large. Even though the multiple is low, at 11, the Street doesn't show any mercy to Apple.
Amazon said nothing on its conference call. "Why did they even bother having a conference call?" asked Carmer. The company is "spending like a drunken sailor," and didn't say anything Cramer thought was compelling. The stock dipped a bit, but kept rallying until it closed up $15. Cramer would buy Apple as an investment, especially with the potential for enterprise business. "Why does Apple fall short and Amazon is 'better than expected?" In this case, "the worst man wins."
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