Does a Mobile Internet Devices Market Exist? 16 comments
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MIDs (Mobile Internet Devices) are being pushed by some notebook OEMs and silicon suppliers as the next big convergent handheld category. I've seen some presentations pitching the notion that they'll subsume smartphones, encroach on netbooks and UMPCs, and obsolete standalone GPS devices and media players.
There's no standard definition of a MID but the archetypes tend to be the Nokia (NOK) N810, a long thin prototype device Intel's (INTC) been showing, and according to some viewpoints, the Apple (AAPL) iPhone. Most people think MIDs will have a 4-7 inch screen, a grade-A web experience, some form(s) of wireless connectivity, and plenty of memory and battery life. It'll probably have a lightweight OS of some sort (Linux, Android, Apple, some cut-down version of Windows etc), and is likely to have various consumer multimedia capabilities.
Many are quite likely to come bundled with some form of mobile broadband - either a familiar 'vanilla' operator Internet access, or perhaps a more under-the-hood wholesaled connection like an Amazon (AMZN) Kindle on steroids. Although the concept started as being quite WiMax-centric it has now evolved to 3G as well.
So far, so good. Basically a 2008-era PDA paradigm with connectivity built in and all the toys like GPS, right?
Maybe, but I'm less than convinced by the general-purpose MID concept. Anyone with a 6 inch device will have a normal phone as well (quite possibly a small smartphone itself), and their own or a shared family PC too.
Yes I'm sure there will be a few road warriors who want a day-trippable device rather than a laptop. Yes some teenagers with backpacks could have one instead of a PSP. If it's cool enough, the gadget fiends will be queuing outside the shops. But hundreds of millions of units? Hmmm.
However, I can certainly buy into the idea that things like PSPs, TomToms, N810s, even iPod Touches could use some form of mobile connectivity. Not all of them, not all the time, maybe just for specific apps rather than general Internet services. Each category will adopt mobile at a different pace, and it will probably vary by country too.
Consistently, divergence has been more important than convergence for the last 10 years. For every two things that have combined, three new ones have emerged in their place - a consequence of Moore's Law and economies of scale.
So I see a small core market of converged general-purpose MIDs, really like mini web-optimised computers, bought as a 3rd or 4th device by urban techno-leaders. But that niche will be surrounded by a cloud of app-specific products, some wireless-enabled pseudo-MIDs, some WiFi only or remaining unconnected. Most of these will support decent browsers and extra secondary software clients too, but won't be optimised for them. Developers will face even more fragmentation than is the case for smartphones, but as the value for most of these products will be hardcoded 'out of the box' it won't matter too much.
For what it's worth, I'm still viewing the iPhone as a smartphone rather than a MID, as it can work as a primary phone and you don't look stupid holding it to your ear. (Its size is on the lower limit of MIDs, though, so I won't argue if you define it differently as part of the category - it's only semantics). Some of the larger WinMob devices, however, clearly fall into MID-land, which means WinMob7 will need to seriously step up the pace if Microsoft (MSFT) wants a role outside enterprise-type mobile products.
Overall - I'm cautiously optimistic about MIDs, but I see it as a fragmented movement towards enabling "mobile broadband computing" in a variety of different devices, rather than the genesis of a new generic computing segment.
Disclosure: None
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This article has 16 comments:
Read the post again. As I said, you can choose whether or not to include the iPhone in the "MID" category depending on how you define the segments. You can call it a small MID or a large smartphone, or both, depending on your preference.
And as you yourself say "it's redefining the cellphone market". I'm not talking about the cellphone market, I'm talking about MIDs.
Honestly, I'm getting fed up with iPhone fanboys trying to read criticism into anything I wrote about the thing, particularly when I'm praising it. I've repeatedly said its a good device - it's just a shame about the attitudes of some of its fans, who seem to go actively looking for negative comments, where none are made or implied.
DB
====================
You are right. An MID would look out of place in trying to replace a mobile phone.
I see the MID as a possible, useful device.
I use a MacBook Pro all the time now, and I carry an iPhone.
It would be helpful to have an (Apple) MID, so that I can travel with my iPhone and have an MID when I want more computer power and a larger screen while on a casual day-trip.
The MacBook Pro notebook will be my new "desktop" computer, for when I want a much bigger screen and an easier keyboard on which to type.
it's all in what you're use to. people are use to cell phone buttons, but i remember when they first came out and people insisted that no one would ever be able to use their fingers to punch out a phone number because the keys were too small.
the iphone is the trend of the future. as any teenager or 20 something.
and they won't have just 'a few apps' either. they're use to complicated interfaces and they still want a laptop at home...but they're doing more and more on a very small device and enjoying it!
I agree with DeanB that iPhone fans think it is “ultimate” device and cannot understand the context of the discussion. Apple/ATT happily milks this ignorance and attitude on iPhone fans. Although it is good piece of gadget with great interface, iPhone fans fail to realize that it is not cost-effective for the features it provides. 100bucks a month for two years + the continue urge to buy iTunes (more spending), for what ? The same can be done in other ways at much cheaper cost. Just go and look at apple balance sheet and you will release the % profit they make on these puppies. It’s money from ignorant fans…… Good luck to fans and happy losing money…..
If AAPL figured out how to integrate a Bluetooth docking station so I could charge and store the blue tooth headset into the device itself...*oooh*
You're wasting your breath. And you're writing on a site that constantly baits Apple fans with slanted, pointless, uninformed stories.
And the answer to your headline is yes. Even if the market is small now only a fool would think it won't eventually soar at an exponential rate.
There are fanboys on both sides of the fence, but Nokia and Winmobile aren't impressing anyone, so who is the real fanboy?
- added 3G connectivity to ATT and tMobile
- Expanded graphic keyboard
- More Multitouch gestures
- Wifi (Skype) phone/video capability
- All the iPod touch functionality, reliability, security, usability, coolness, and 100s of Apps
No one else can go there. Instant executive, mobile, college, teen (and military patrol!) must have device priced at $150 above current touch pricing.
Got iTablet killers? Not for a couple years, my friends.
Disclosure: OCILAP (Of course I'm Long Aapl!)
I think Apple designed a MID, with its iPhone, but squeezed it into the cellphone category, exactly for the reason Dean cited. The MID market just isn't that big yet. The cellphone market is huge. Which one is a niche, and which one isn't?
As for my ideal device that isn't a desktop, laptop, or cellphone? I'd like something like the OLPC, 2nd gen mockup, where the touchscreen is on both sides of the fold, but smaller of course. In fact, I'd take the iPhone size and shape, and clamshell it, so that it unfolded giving you double the touchscreen, for when you wanted to surf the net, work on spreadsheets. Of course, when you flipped it closed, it would appear just like the iPhone does now. Interestingly, Apple has patented something like this, so I'm hopeful in a couple years we'll see something like this. Something small enough to be a phone, but also unfolds to be something that can replace a Nokia N810 or Kindle, or Netbook.
I am sure that you tried more than once to surf your PDA and find it inconvenient, complicated and probably not fun.
goal is to create a widened and convenient mobile internet exploration environment.
providing a verity of feed-enabled PDA website wrapped into a simple and intuitive User interface (UI) that based on visual logos of common web site. This mobile service that lets you find PDA websites will enhance the surfing and browsing experience.
GG
mobile site:
jmise.mobi
web site:
jmise.com
A few comments -
Tiffy - yes, it sounds like we're in total agreement.
Mollytjm "absolutely no one buys an iphone because they want a phone. they do want something closer to a pocket computer". Sorry, that's wrong. There are plenty of iPhone users who just want it because it's a phone that looks cool, at least initially. Some/most will later discover it does a bunch of other stuff, but certainly outside the US I wouldn't underestimate the power of aesthetics or subsidy.
Also a sizeable % teenagers don't like the iPhone's lack of proper numeric keypad. It's impossible to send SMS without looking at the screen - you can't send messages with the phone under your school-desk / in your pocket. (And some non-teenagers would prefer a proper QWERTY if they're heavy SMS/email writers)
Various - Bluetooth headsets are only useful for a % of users, for a % of the time. If the phone rings on your bedside table, or while you're in the pub, are you going to fumble around to put the headset on? No. Nobody I know uses a headset for 100% of their calls, and unless you talk while you drive a lot, probably few people are >50%. A phone needs to be a phone.
Brewer - I don't get other "enthusiasts" berating me on SeekingAlpha or my main blog. Given I'm independent of the debate (to be honest, I prefer featurephones to smartphones for my main mobile device), it seems to me that Apple fans are particularly vociferous - and go out looking to start a fight with people who aren't being belligerent.
Others - clearly there's broad mix of people who want smaller/larger and single/multiple devices. It depends on wealth, existing behaviour, country, preferred services, preferred usage models, whether you carry a bag, how large your pockets are and a zillion other factors. Proclaiming one device or form-factor as the God Product is unreasonable.
DB