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It all started with a remark or two from Mel Karmazin at the recent Merrill Lynch media conference. I wrote that day exactly what it was Mel had done wrong, in this meeting of media moguls, and Mel was nice enough to apologize for his flippant remarks in an interview one week later with the Wall Street Journal.

As I troll through the barrage of news stories relating to satellite radio, it has dawned on me that perhaps the most damaging comment from Mel has not been addressed. He said that “regular radio sucks” as an investment. The problem with this statement is that regular radio is owned primarily by NAB controlled, traditional media companies. The recent negative bias seems to be nothing less than a smear campaign designed to destroy confidence in Sirius XM (SIRI).

And it’s working. Even the strongest supporters of Satellite Radio seem stuck on this issue of debt due next year, and their confidence in the product and company is being destroyed. They have created a fear and doubt scenario that has become the focus of Sirius XM. New products and programming, analyst buy ratings and reaffirmations,  and great new pricing options are doing little to affect this negative sentiment.

Every article I read these days mentions at the very least, the 300 million dollars in debt that Sirius XM has coming due in February 2009. Not one of them mentions the plan laid out by Mel & Co. to deal with the issue. Everyone looks at Lehman (LEH) and makes the assumption that liquidity problems in the investment banking sector are a negative for Sirius. Nothing could be further from the truth.

The reason I propose this is that Sirius has made it clear that they first intend to use cash on hand to dispose of the convertible debt obligation. Assuming Sirius was to use 150 million dollars, that would only leave 150 million to dispose of. The company has offered that any shortfalls would be made up of bank loans. There are other options as well. Lines of credit from the OEMs and Loral (LORL) for example. My personal opinion is that more than enough cash will be available when these debt obligations are due.

It seems no one is willing to give the company time to execute on its business plan. A la carte offerings, “best of” programming and even the new navigation systems offer increased incremental income and should greatly improve the company’s liquidity and top line growth well before next February. If I can figure this out, why can’t Wall Street?

The answer, I’m afraid, is in the negative media bias campaign. It looks to me like the NAB is not quite done with their mission to diminish competition, by removing the greatest threat to terrestrial radio’s stranglehold on the American public: Satellite Radio!

Position: Long SIRI, no position LORL

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This article has 142 comments:

  •  
    Regular radio does suck!
    2008 Sep 17 07:53 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Today is a good day to breakup!
    2008 Sep 17 08:05 AM | Link | Reply
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    Thats all every one talks about , sad to say, Like the Old Pet Dog and the end of his life,he gives it that one last fight,poor Puppy-That aboy old Yeller just let go - he gave it his best -just can't compete with the new Dog on the Block,Meet Sirius,,,,,
    od Nab going out an embarrassment now,,hang it up NAB
    2008 Sep 17 08:20 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Good points. Today's other SA article author states that SIRI needs to seek 1B in refi loans--which I don't believe to be true. As you say, since SIRI has about 300M cash, they can put half toward the refi upfront--which will help lower the new debt interest liability. I suspect though that they will also think about including the current May '09 liability in this round of financing--which only then leaves the Dec '09 300M to address an entire year from now (which they could even by then possibly address with cash). As economic times get better next year and the SIRI synergies become more concrete, the subs and top line continuing to grow, etc... they could always even do another refi if they so chose to get an even better rate. For now in the immediate term, freeing SIRI up for an entire year without concern "as a going concern" for investors with one stroke of the pen, will provide the necessary breathing room and immediately rehydrate their market cap--improving their market position even more, attracting more investors, etc...

    Despite the negative reports, which as you say are coming from a variety of sources with their own agendas to want to see SIRI suffer, there are many reasons SIRI is just not on any brink of failing whatsoever. It's interesting that yesterday was the very first public report I've ever seen (seemingly finally by an unbiased party I might add) that highlighted the fact that SIRI, now with their near 20M sub base this year, puts them in the same league as the venerable Comcast.

    "The newly merged Sirius XM is expected to close out the year with 19.5 million satellite radio subscribers. Its target for next year is 21.5 million. To put that number into perspective, the company's subscriber numbers are not far behind those of cable giant Comcast (Nasdaq:CMCSA), which has 24.6 million subscribers."

    Let me just say this about that. Any company that has that kind of consumer reach (as Comcast does), has EXTREME value in the market place--period. Add in the potential yet unrealized uses and growth for the medium itself, and you have a powerhouse. Why do you think Mel did this deal in the first place? For his health? But if nothing else were true, the car OEM's alone would not allow SIRI to fail since they now count on SATRAD as a selling feature staple--both as the feature itself, but also from the sharing revenue they receive from it (which has become a staple on their balance sheets).

    As I have said before on this board, it's just a little time that has been needed to get through the merger process once it finally got done and get things lined up. Life has gotten a little turbulent for SIRI but there is plenty of light at the end of this tunnel. Hang in there longs.

    Btw, I saw that article with Mels "reqular radio sucks" comment. Seemed like minutes later it was gone. I assume SIRI had it pulled asap?
    2008 Sep 17 08:31 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Excellent article, but its not the NAB whos doing the tanking. IMO. But just know this negative media is now obvious to a lot of people, not just little old me. Its TOO obvious, and someone needs to get on the phone at Sirius and start pounding tables.
    2008 Sep 17 08:47 AM | Link | Reply
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    Regular radio does suck, and suck hard, especially in the Atlanta area. I have all but destroyed the dashboard and radio in my Avalanche from changing stations and turning it off. My radio could be the poster child for the NAB.

    All, remember that the two democrats voted against the merger in the end. If Obama wins, the FCC board will be 3 democrats and 2 republicans. If that happens we can expect them, under the influence of the NAB, to throw everything they have at SIRI to either kill it or bust it up. VOTE REPUBLICAN!!

    2008 Sep 17 08:58 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    I wonder what will happen to the price today after yesterdays rally!!?
    2008 Sep 17 09:03 AM | Link | Reply
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    I cannot believe how many SIRIUS/XM shareholders are sucked into this negative campaign garbage put out by terrestial radio competition.
    Facts are facts,

    SIRIUS/XM is growing every day - Terrestial radio does NOT

    SIRIUS/XM from a negative balance sheet --will become POSITIVE very soon

    SIRIUS/XM is here to stay

    SIRIUS/XM + APPLE + MOTOROLA + DIRECT TV + DISH NETWORK just a few to consider joining forces
    possibilities are endless

    People need to look and stick to the FUNDAMENTS of SIRIUS/XM
    QUALITY PROGRAMMING WILL PREVAIL and this is what SIRIUS/XM
    is working on.
    2008 Sep 17 09:20 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Headed right back down. Bid/Ask just before the open is .83/.84. Yesterday was a mirage...look for an easy retest today at least in the mid .70's...
    2008 Sep 17 09:22 AM | Link | Reply
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    After 2 years of owning Sirius and listening to Howard every morning, when I'm forced to drive to work listening to the "Whacky Morning Shows" I want to drive my car into on coming traffic. Regular radio sucks, but you know what sucks worse? Having to listen to this crap because I left my Sportster in the boombox. WHERE IS THE NEW TECHNOLOGY???? They had 1.5 years to have this stuff ready to go. I need a new receiver and am ready to plunk down money to get it.

    I hate telling my friends who love my radio to wait to buy one because new technology is on the way to receive both Sirius and XM.
    2008 Sep 17 09:23 AM | Link | Reply
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    Dont drive into oncoming traffic GotSIRI... plz.

    (lol)
    2008 Sep 17 09:24 AM | Link | Reply
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    I have not listened to regular radio in 2 years. F U NAB!
    2008 Sep 17 09:54 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Excellent opportunity today to watch a stock manipulation program in action. Watch level 2 streaming quotes on KBH. 3 market trading windows are moving in unison, dropping the bid, raising it, etc.. in step. Of course, if all the trading were not coordinated, this would be a mathematical impossiblity. Also manipulate the ask and bid side. So easy to see with this one, because its desperate. Nothing keeping this stock up other than a bunch of 100 shares being traded back and forth. To quote Cramer...
    "You got yourself a 2 dollar lottery ticket here", trading in the 20's right now, lol. About what KB Homes is worth in real money right now. Only people moving it are the shorts and a few occasional sellers.
    2008 Sep 17 09:55 AM | Link | Reply
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    Wow, I could prove manipulation in that stock, unequivically, with just 2 print screens. LOL. No way 4 TRADING PLATFORMS move the same ask around, at the same exact moment, dropping it and raising it in unison. That PROVES 4 different entities at least(its really only one computer program) are in collusion of stock manipulation. Wow, open and shut case. There you go unbelievers, please offer an explanation, unbelievers. Markets arent manipulated....program... dont run that control prices....LOL LOL What fools, next your going to tell me that terrestrial radio is a good product, but it should look out for internet radio, THEY WAVE OF THE FUTURE. AHHAHHHAHAHHAHHAL O LOLOLOL I LOVE IT!!! More lies, I want more lies!!!
    2008 Sep 17 10:03 AM | Link | Reply
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    Watching the program that is running the Sirius stock down is a bit more complicated. Its more of a wall of shorts, designed to make ever up tick a drag. And if buying interest subsides for a moment, its got an avenue to drop it right down again, regarless of real investment interest. This program, whoever is running it, is robbing you of money, and you should be furious. Its not even so much as the negative press so much, is its this manipulation in the trading. I believe theres still enough legitamite sentiment in this stock to where if left alone it would be in the 2-4 range right now, regardless of the bad press. That just kept it under 5.
    2008 Sep 17 10:07 AM | Link | Reply
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    relmor... where are you watching the level 2 streaming quotes?
    2008 Sep 17 10:14 AM | Link | Reply
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    Examples of stock that flow normally.....
    Look up a stock trading above 5 dollars that you have never heard of and the media doesnt mention. Pick around 5 of those. Watch them for a few hours each. Come back to Sirius and KB Homes, any large bank...etc...
    Like night and day in the action. Dont say all stocks trade differently, actually they only vary by volume and price, up or down is based on sentiment. All stocks should trade relatively the same. Fill one side move up, etc....to higher or lower ask/bid, etc.... Sometimes you get jumps or gaps, etc... but not every 2 seconds, lol.
    2008 Sep 17 10:16 AM | Link | Reply
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    oh, my god!
    2008 Sep 17 11:20 AM | Link | Reply
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    I bought stock in siri in 2001 at $2.20 a share with only 500,000 subscribers and no howard. 7 years later, 19.5 million subscribers later,shares are at 85 cents. Mel you are a misleader. In all these years i've been thinking positive. When shareholders are told be positive. It's a positive gain of 19,000,000 subscribers. No gain,none, for the shareholders for 2555 days (7years). Mel i hope you are enjoying all those big pay checks and pay raises on the shareholders expense. This is a fact. My seven years of dealing with your misleading results, proves that!!!!!!!!!
    2008 Sep 17 11:21 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Wow,... The Nasdaq average is tanking... And bringing SIRI with it

    : (
    2008 Sep 17 11:29 AM | Link | Reply
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    matt o, I would like to know how you bought in SIRI for 2.20 in 2001. Then why would you not have sold when it went all the way up to 9 +. Next FYI Mel would have made 5 times as much if he did not take a pay cut to come to SIRI. I also dought you have put 10% more then you have earned in salery and bonuses for the last five years back into your companys stock.
    2008 Sep 17 11:35 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    after all the negative events and setbacks, shareholders are already uneasy and unsure about siri's viability. even the approval of the merger which rightfully should be considered a win turned out to be a disappointment. the continous decline of pps does not help in boosting shareholders morale. siri management has been reticent in assuring them on the solution of the company's immediate problem. on the contrary, the message/s shareholders gleaned from 'overheard' and secondhand sources are more in line with bashers postings.

    what should shareholders believe if siri management does not talk to them?

    tyler's
    2008 Sep 17 11:41 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    163888, nice name. The stock did go to that for such a brief time. Out of those 2555 days, 10-20 days the stock made money, and no I did not sell. for that brief time mel did the right thing. what about the other 2530 days? I guess I should put more faith in go ole Mel.
    2008 Sep 17 11:51 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    dumb question,,,,but,,,
    what is the downside of sirixm filing bankruptcy and reorganizing debt free??
    its horrible for the current investors obviously,,buts what to stop them?!? thats my fear...
    2008 Sep 17 12:00 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Bankrupcy gives control over to a third party. Its a last desperate option, as you saw with Lehman Brothers. Buyers would be suitored first. Not even close to bankrupcy. Lehman Brothers went bankrupt because they couldnt convince the government or any other buyers that their business model offered them a way to profitablilty in the near future. In the margin game its not or never. When the government wont bail you out, your done. The government will now decide who lives, and who dies. Who controls the government? Central banks of course. So you have what theve always wanted, consolidation in the banking industry, easier to control the sheeple if they must go to only a few banks, instead of many. Also the bigger the bank, the more they can feel comfortable about a bail out. Bail outs wont stop. They will have to bail out the airline industry, when oil hits 150 again, should be by March of next year, or close to it. Probably 130 again, it overshot this year, but its not far off.
    2008 Sep 17 12:06 PM | Link | Reply
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    That is not a bad question.163888 try to punch holes into that one. In the past the shareholders have been fried by this company. We are being cooked right now. Is it time to microwave our burnt behinds. Mel?
    2008 Sep 17 12:10 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    The only people they wont bail out is you and me. Average Joe, and the small business. They want to keep you in your house because it makes you a slave to it. Also dont look now, but wait till the government makes it illegal to walk away from a mortgage, or it not only hurts your credit, they can go after your other assets , not only taking the house back, but making you financially responsible for the loss of value too. Since they own Freddie and Fannie, and they are one and the same with BOFA and JPMorgan, whats stopping them? Nothing thats what. Your vote? LOL LOL LOL
    Your vote hasnt counted since 1776. Democrat or Republican? What a joke, I ll take neither thank you. Both want to rob me, just in different ways. Ron Paul or bust. Vote no confidence, like Jessie Ventura suggested everyone vote. Your vote ONLY counts if you DONT vote republican or democrat. Then your vote counts. Other than that your voting for more of the same. Obama is completely and 100 percent controlled, and we know McCain is. McCain is a puppet just like Obama for Central bank interests. Central banks have owned wall street since 1913, do you think there going to give it back now? Just because they bankrupted hundreds of thousands of citizens, and lowered that standard of living for the rest? Vote the banks out, go ahead and try that one.
    2008 Sep 17 12:11 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    So to relate this to Sirius, if the banks really want to bankrupt Sirius, NOTHING would stop them. But I dont think they want too, because Sirius makes them money, and banks like money. Media companies scare me though, because the powers that be like to be in control of them, especially when the get big. But Jessie Jackson got his clutches into Sirius for the powers that be, and Mel is one of "them", otherwise he would never have been allowed to run CBS radio and Viacom. Id think that Sirius the way it is right now, and how much control they have over it is enough to save investors. Bankrupting the company(unless you know going in what the judge will decide) in a very unlikely option.
    2008 Sep 17 12:15 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    mad dog russo really necessary for 5 million a year when investors are getting screwed? does anyone really listen to martha radio?
    As usual the company loses $, yet salaries of the top tiers dont change...
    2008 Sep 17 12:17 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    The one thing I hate most about Sirius is not the amount of stock, its the amount of stock "in float" that scares me. That needs to come down, way down. I need to see large investment interest in its common stock between now and the refinancing to feel more at ease. Does anyone have any numbers on what the banks have bought lately on Sirius? I know Lehman bought shares(oops) GS did(could have been those longs they promised to start though) and existing holders added shares. I think there was another large bank buying shares, but Im not sure. Probably wont be made public till after the fact though , im sure. Anyone know when banks have to disclose purchases? if at all?
    2008 Sep 17 12:18 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Hes worth 5 million a year if he adds just 32000 subs. I think thats easy enough for a national radio guy to draw. Im sure they ran estimates to determine his salary. If XM existed today, they would have probably had to pay him 7-8 million a year. Thats synergies in action for you baby, ones that will never get to paper!! What im talking about when I say unmentioned synergies. You think Howard is going to get 50 million a year or whatever he gets now, no way!! Hell get around half what he makes now. They only have to outbid themselves now, he will never do normal radio again, and XM isnt in the picture anymore.

    OOOOOOOO
    OOOOOOOO
    I know, Pandora will offer him 60 million a year to go to internet radio.
    LOL LOL LOL Wheres Jwede when I need him, hes probably crunching the numbers right now on that one..
    Heslike...ooo. ya that sounds good. Pandora is the future, pandora , right Pandora is the future....Internet radio rocks!!! Wish It wouldnt keep going in and out, and I wish everytime the car moved it didnt need to reestablish a connection, lol. What did Howard say? Something about balls? LOL LOL I can see it now!!
    2008 Sep 17 12:22 PM | Link | Reply
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    Above poster has it right? Why no communication on a stock at this level? Why nothing to jump it? Why? Cause they wanted it right where it is. Huge negotiation tactic advantage to have a beaten down stock when talking bonds. They can say see, no value in our common, better just take the cash. We wont dilute further, and they wont want too.If they pumped the stock, then they would be using bonds again.
    2008 Sep 17 12:26 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    How does the average person make money with siri? Answer, Marry one of the ceo's. ha,ha.
    2008 Sep 17 12:28 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    help me Nascar, help me Howard, o for the love of mel, help me Opra
    2008 Sep 17 12:36 PM | Link | Reply
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    "The newly merged Sirius XM is expected to close out the year with 19.5 million satellite radio subscribers. Its target for next year is 21.5 million. To put that number into perspective, the company's subscriber numbers are not far behind those of cable giant Comcast (Nasdaq:CMCSA), which has 24.6 million subscribers."

    Correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't 'radio that sucks' have 230+ million people listening to it every day? And doens't Comcast compete with many other cable companies as well as Verizon in key geographies for its subscriber base?

    For satellite radio AS A MONOPOLY within its domain - paid audio entertainment delivered primarily to cars - to project less than 1% of the 'old radio' base will add their services over the next year doesn't make me feel really happy about their growth prospects.

    On top of that, 'subscriber' doesn't mean 'paid subscriber' since that first year 'trial' you get with new vehicles is not paid in full by the auto manufacturers. Also, how many of these 'subscriptions' are currently cars sitting in the lots of auto dealerships around the nation?

    Sell Sell Sell.
    2008 Sep 17 12:58 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    DONT SELL SELL SELL
    2008 Sep 17 01:25 PM | Link | Reply
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    I own siri stock and I will tell you why. I got into the cable business back in '82 when people said nobody would pay for TV if they could get it free. I got on the bandwagon with John Malone (TCI) and never looked back. I have seen all this negative press and doubts before. If you can hang on, I am betting (with real money) that you will make money. The real trick is not to get greedy. I bought Force Protection at about this price and sold way before it peaked. No regrets because I made over 700% on my investment. I will be a buyer of this soon.
    2008 Sep 17 01:48 PM | Link | Reply
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    Relmor, a couple a questions. what "long shares" did GS promise to purchase? and what do you thing will happen with the SEC short regulation implemented today, effective at Midnight?
    2008 Sep 17 02:10 PM | Link | Reply
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    HA! Goldman Sachs is Sucking a big fat lolipop [you know what i mean ; )] right now... Take that weinke or whatever the hell your name is for giving SIRI a sell rating.
    2008 Sep 17 02:11 PM | Link | Reply
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    Relmor, as you know but many other don't, ALL major stocks are now traded through electronic trading programs, as well as individually. What you are saying is absolutely true, because that is what the program is designed to do. That's why on a really bad day, the market puts the curbs in to suspend these trading programs, because they will relentlessly beat a stock, any stock. to death as the programmed conditions are met.
    2008 Sep 17 02:29 PM | Link | Reply
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    User 26, great idea, that's the way to invest. Unfortunately many if not most of the people on this board have ingored their profit and ridden the stock all the way down.
    2008 Sep 17 02:31 PM | Link | Reply
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    AT57..."230 million plus...listening everyday" Actually the Businessweek article said "listening every week" with many repeat listeners i'm sure.That's just jargon from spin doctors. And there's no revenue from listeners, only from advertisers(which are declining). We'll see those advertisers jumping to siriusxm in the near future.
    2008 Sep 17 02:50 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Regardless of the future of satellite radio itself, rescuing a stock under one dollar with over 3 billion shares outstanding, would be damn near impossible. Just because any or all of you maybe right about the boundless possibilities, doesn't mean that that future belongs to the current shareholders of common stock.
    2008 Sep 17 02:57 PM | Link | Reply
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    wouldn't that Sec ruling stop some of the price manipulation?
    2008 Sep 17 03:29 PM | Link | Reply
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    Matto.................... You bought in early, and have had plenty of opportunities to cash in at fantastic profit margin. What stopped you after having so many opportunities. And now you have the nerve to blame someone/anyone else, especially the man that presented you with all of those lost opportunities. Mel should spit on you, I would. Your name should be blamer/whinnnnnnnnnnne... Now quit your sniveling. When you didn't turn in your homework in school, who did you blame for your failure? I bet the teacher caught that too. Baby..................
    2008 Sep 17 03:39 PM | Link | Reply
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    another ralley today, I'm feeling good and thinking positive
    2008 Sep 17 03:42 PM | Link | Reply
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    Told you GS was going to take in the a s s. Down to 20 before it is done.
    2008 Sep 17 04:03 PM | Link | Reply
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    Nice round of buying three min. before the close. From 4.0 to 9.4. I'll take that for now.
    2008 Sep 17 04:08 PM | Link | Reply
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    could it be that the new short rule is going to finally stabalize this stock. market down 450 but siri up 6 cents? i like it
    2008 Sep 17 04:21 PM | Link | Reply
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    2 late day rallies in a row. It would be nice to see it over a $1 tomorrow.
    2008 Sep 17 04:31 PM | Link | Reply
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    finally a price spike, I dont know how much more my heart can handle
    2008 Sep 17 04:34 PM | Link | Reply
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    good news = siri down

    total financial system collapse = siri up

    go figure....
    2008 Sep 17 04:59 PM | Link | Reply
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    matt o, I will do my best, First of all they would file for bankruptcy protection that still would not mean you lose your shares if they can get the courts to force the debt holders to hold off and or lower interest rates. This has happened many times, look at the airlines as examples. I dont even think it will get that far because as I already told you Mel has over 20 million (all he has earned plus 10% since he has been at SIRI) and while it does not mean you lose your shares it could depending on how things go and Mel will not take that chance.
    2008 Sep 17 05:00 PM | Link | Reply
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    I am officially putting my "SELL" rating on GS today... (for all its worth) Take that Weinke.
    2008 Sep 17 05:28 PM | Link | Reply
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    What do you guys think the new rule on Shorting a stock will do for SIRI. If it does anything, do you think it will have an affect on the stock tomorrow?
    2008 Sep 17 06:04 PM | Link | Reply
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    The new shorting rule, as I understand it so far, makes lying to your broker a crime and reportable. If you short the stock and claim to your broker that you have located the shares, you must possess them before the transaction confirmation. As a crime it is reportable by licensed brokers aware of the practice. Brokerage firms that participate will be banned from "short" trading that security in the future. Time will only tell if there is any meat to the regulation. The fact that it makes the practice of "Naked Shorting" reportable and punishable may be significant enough psychologically to reduce or stop the practice, especially on "news worthy" companies having financial problems.
    2008 Sep 17 06:35 PM | Link | Reply
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    To answer above questions directed at me:
    Trading programs coordinated to work together, by the law, is illegal. If one trading program is running, it cant function through 3 differnet trading windows(manipulation). So nice try. And if only a trading program is running on the buying side(KBH) and they are buying and selling back and forth(jail time). Look up SEC regualtions if you have any questions. Thank you/
    As for GS shares, it was an agreement to buy longs per short entered to hedge the new bonds. Thats why they tanked the stock, so those longs are at .70 cents etc.. There shorts were started at 2.70- 3.20 range or higher. Thats why they used jumps to accumulate short shares. Imagine a huge mass of people running into a bowl of jello, and just getting absorbed. Kind of like that. Its ok going at first, but it wears on you, and over time that bowl of jello turns into a spring(in the other direction) BAD analogy, sorry, lol. But i think you get my point. And Im Not Jim Cramer, is that all you can respond to my accusations of manipulation. That trading programs are out there? Sure, but they arent allowed to manipulate price are they? No, they are in place to hit triggers fast, and react to the market NOT CREATE THE MARKET YOU TROLL!!!!
    Thanks for agreeing with me by the way, nice!!!! Now I have you on record as saying trading programs exist that can move prices. Thank you. And sophisicated ones can CONTROL PRICES(thats illegal).
    Do you know what illegal is? Do you know the law? So when you come on here and say we are complaining about the "market", Im not complaining about the market. The market wants this stock over 3, EASY. I can prove it by buying interest and up ticks vs. down ticks. etc... Not hard if you know math. Volume spikes are huge indicators to of manipulation. So you agree there are programs manipulating stock prices, but you dont agree they work in conjunction with others and youbelieve in santa clause too. I got it. GO SANTA!!
    As for them covering their shorts, because of the naked short selling rule, im not sure, but market action today indicates some reluctance to short past 90 cents. Is it a bottom forming? No clue, but it looks good.
    I would now recommend buying Sirius(My official position has been hold up to now) if its crosses 1.15.
    2008 Sep 17 06:42 PM | Link | Reply
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    For what its worth, I believe talking about bankruptcy is a "hand wringing" activity. This company pays its bills and has good partners that are invested in its success. The third quarter, as has already been said, will be a washout. Remember it isn't even a full quarter of combined operation and it will have every "one time" charge as merger and synergy related costs. Reducing payroll first costs money before it saves money. It makes absolutely no sense to seek protection from the courts to renegotiate your debt with those that are invested in your success. Mel will go directly to source, not the courts, for refinancing. GS be damned.
    2008 Sep 17 06:46 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    There is resistance in the SP at 1.30, 1.50, and 1.82. The next reistance is at 2.40. So if it clears 1.15 you might want to jump on to 1.30 and see what happens. I would sell if it hits 1.30 and retraces to 1.19. Then id wait. See if you buy at 1.15 and you hold at 1.30 and you sell at 1.19 you will still make money. I dont see any huge drops coming(other than the BIG one now, if its coming at all) The only big drop left(we survived the market drops!! ya, give urselves a pat on the back for this bloodbath not affecting the SP, and bad articles a plenty tomorrow. If this isnt the bottom,then the manipulators have tricked me again. But i dont think so. Big jumps can happen now for a number of reasons
    1. Naked short selling rules scares ALL shorts.
    2. Announcment of financing
    3. New revenue steams.
    4. Breaking 20 million subs before Q4.
    5. Car sales shoot up.
    6. Beating their quarters.
    As you can see, theres more up potential here than down. I think if it crossed 1, they will try one more time to drop it under, and when it crosses again it will stay past 1. IMVHO
    2008 Sep 17 06:50 PM | Link | Reply
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    So relmor, are those 15 mil volume spikes today what your talking about?
    2008 Sep 17 06:50 PM | Link | Reply
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    I meant bad articles aplenty yesterday... If you noticed it was a barrage of them(pure coincidence, as JSWEDE would say) all came out together. Check the AP article that noticed its drop, but not its correction back and into the positive(posted at 7:30 LAST NIGHT) If you need more proof than that one article, and you probably believe in Santa Clause, like Im not Jim Cramer(but you sure do sound like him)
    Another point from the past, now that im mentioning the "evil one". He recommended to his viewers to buy the debt(wow, hes actually telling his viewers to buy the debt of a company he sees going bankrupt. Not to mention its impossible to buy these bonds, lol lol lol hahahahha. There packaged in a GS package that only pays like 2. something percent. So basically Cramer is suggesting to you that you lose 9 percent of your money this year(real inflation is over 10 percent this year). Thanks Jim, with friends like you , who needs enemies.
    2008 Sep 17 06:54 PM | Link | Reply
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    Do they seem to come out of nowhere? Check news articles affecting Sirius vs. the spike. Then check when the naked short crack down news came out. It could be a bunch of shorts covering. I havent looked yet.
    One sec.....
    2008 Sep 17 06:55 PM | Link | Reply
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    Rellmor, I'm shocked at your name calling, as if THAT meant that you were right! The whole reason we are in a financial crisis today is that EVERYTHING that was done in the real estate market for the past 5-10 years was illegal. Yet, we are here today, aren't we? Wall Street is the least effectively regulated area in the country, outside of the Liquor Control Board of any given state. lol You have people making $100,000 a year trying to restrain people making $100,000,000 a year. Now on which side do you think the best and the brightest line up?

    The whole collapse of this market is based on unprecedented financial fraud between firms like CFC, and the ratings agencies which rated their paper and the investment banks who peddled it. So please don't tell me that illegal things shock you. I'm sure that you were horrifed to learn about the massive and illegal back dating of stock options that has gone on too! The electronic trading programs do, illegally as you point out, collude. Since we are name calling, how can you be so technically savvy as you obviously are, and yet such a complete Pollyanna about things that are not in your favor. Yes Inspector, there is indeed gambling in Casablanca!
    2008 Sep 17 07:21 PM | Link | Reply
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    Relmor, below you will find the July 28th share lending agreement as stated in the company's 10Q, filed on Aug 8th. I am providing it here to add clarity to the conversation about the company's stock price and the now named ugly deal that Mel says was made. I am not a fan of GS, but there is plenty enough confusion about this deal to go around, but GS had nothing to do with it and maybe that's why their pissed off.

    Share Lending Agreements: On July 28, 2008, we agreed to lend
    Morgan Stanley Capital Services, Inc. an aggregate of 188,399,978 shares of our common stock and to lend UBS AG, London Branch, an aggregate of 74,000,005 shares of our common stock. Each of the share lending agreements will terminate on or about the maturity date of the Exchangeable Notes, or, if earlier, the date as of which the entire principal amount of Exchangeable Notes ceases to be
    outstanding as a result of exchange, repayment, repurchase, or otherwise. The share lending agreement with Morgan Stanley Capital Services, Inc. is guaranteed by Morgan Stanley.

    From Sirius XM Radio's Prospectus for the Bond Offering of July 28th:

    .... 183,679,988 of the borrowed shares will be initially offered at $1.50 per share, and the remaining borrowed shares will subsequently be sold at prevailing market prices at the time of sale or at negotiated prices.

    The shares of common stock being offered by this prospectus
    supplement are shares that we will loan to Morgan Stanley Capital Services, Inc., an affiliate of Morgan Stanley & Co. Incorporated, and UBS AG, London Branch, an affiliate of UBS Investment Bank, which affiliates we refer to as the "share borrowers." These shares are referred to in this prospectus supplement as the "borrowed shares." The share borrowers will sell a portion of the borrowed shares in a fixed-price offering expected to close concurrently with the Notes offering described below.

    We have also been advised by the underwriters for this offering that over the same period that the share borrowers will sell the additional borrowed shares, the share borrowers or their affiliates expect to purchase at least an equal number of shares of our common stock on the open market and/or to enter into derivative transactions providing them with a synthetic long position with respect to an equal number of shares.


    I'm sorry Relmor but nowhere does Goldman Sachs come into this transaction unless they bough some bonds as offered. We don't have a reporting yet of this offering, so there is no way to know. The SP went to $1.50 after the merge because the borrowed shares were priced at a $1.50.
    2008 Sep 17 07:28 PM | Link | Reply
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    Oh and by the way, true naked shorting has been illegal since 1934. The penalty and enforcement mechanism has been previously civil and not criminal. That is the change that they are talking about. Some companies have an infinitely expandable float because of this, which can be seen in the "failure to deliver" numbers.
    2008 Sep 17 07:31 PM | Link | Reply
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    This "Short" selling rule - may be if they had instituted a rule to prevent people from buying houses which they could not afford, we would not have had this mess.

    Are they going to impose rules to prevent hedge funds from buying up stocks with the money they do not have?
    2008 Sep 17 08:07 PM | Link | Reply
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    I have got to admit. These Sirius blogs and discussion boards are awesome! Entertaining as well as informative. I feel like part of some guerrilla stock trader brotherhood.
    2008 Sep 17 08:20 PM | Link | Reply
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    Matt o................ You honestly don't see it do you? Unbelievable........
    2008 Sep 17 09:27 PM | Link | Reply
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    Does anyone else think Mel looks like Dennis Farina?? (I just got done watching What happens in Vegas and farina is in that)
    2008 Sep 17 10:14 PM | Link | Reply
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    Anyone have an idea of the Volumes of 3.6m, 18.2m,16.5m toward the end of the day. I doubt that they were buring a hole in someone's portfolio. No Web news coincide with the spike.




    2008 Sep 17 10:50 PM | Link | Reply
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    Good info all...

    Rock on SIRI!...

    SIRI = The heart of a champion. A few observations.

    1. The second EOD quick move up in as many days should not go unoticed. Is the financing news close at hand? MM's are now jumpy at the close--retreating to the middle of the pack. Who knows what the little birdie is whispering. Don't forget, Mel's been working on this financing probably since the merger. It will be coming sooner than later. As he said, it was ugly financing (through the bogus additional shares) and not the way he wanted to do it, but he had no choice. He had no choice but to allow what has happened to the stock--but he wasn't happy about it and most assuredly has been at work since finding the best lender he can get. He even said on Cramer that he intended to f-up the shorts.

    2. No way will Mel K. be taking SIRI XM into any BK court. There's absolutely no reason to take a perfectly healthy, growing (now newly combined) company into a BK. How many companies can you name that merge, then head right in a BK and screw over shareholders, lenders, etc?...I think not many. I'm sorry but this option makes no sense. There are other reasons (if there needed to be any more) such as Mel K has NEVER operated that way in his career. He's not a snake. He might be a bit of a demanding asshole (who doesn't take no for an answer many times), but that works into SIRI's favor. He certainly ain't perfect and maybe be accused of lack of technical vision--but he IS a proven successful businessman not accustomed to failing. Right now, until proven otherwise, the smart money has to be on him to get things handled. Sure, things look a little bleak right now, but don't forget who's fault that is...aaaa, the FCC. Not Mels. Plus, he knows that any kind of BK or weird reorg at this critical time of the merge will tarnish the brand for the forseeable future. Do you think a tarnished brand is part of SIRI's biz plan? Nope. Not gonna happen. Some might think SIRI is like these financials who have bowed to the BK gods lately or needed bailouts. They were all HIDING their greedy troubles. SIRI has NOTHING to hide so they have nothing to fear. Time will bear out the truth. Their stock has not fallen because they are a bad company--it's because other greedy bastards are trying to hedge themselves. That will be coming to a close when the financing deal is at hand. All (or most) of those bogus shares will have to be re-bought and returned to SIRI. When that happens the stock, the float, and the short interest will normalize. I say keep the BK in the rumor mill where it belongs. Bankruptcy = HIGHLY improbable if not impossible at this stage...

    3. Everybody and their brother on Wall Street knows what's happening to SIRI. Of course people like Cramer or Macke say stay away because they knew bad times were coming--which we've now all lived through. We're still here and not broken. Only the unenlightened have jumped to their 3K annual deduction death. R.I.P. to them but we're all still here and will ride out this event. Further, when you consider the new post merger share price was set at 1.50, being down .50 - .70 from there isn't the end of the world--if you know how not to jump. Yes, the percentage is a headline, but it's not that much in the scheme (considering the circumstances). Anyone staying long through this can consider themselves either experienced or baptized. All money managers go through times where they need an iron stomach (Or a case of Peptol!)--but you gotta have it to be in the Wall Street jungle--and to be a winner. If not, it's time to go home and play board games and drink lemonade. You gotta have faith in your motives and be there when the tables turn. The heavy lifting is essentially over for SIRI , or coming to an end very shortly. The main reason is many people are now realizing how great a value it is to BUY SIRI. 107,770,409 traded hands today on no news. The news is that the birdie is starting to whisper SIRI is a BUY at this level and the downside risk is minimal. Duh! Ya think? They know BK is out of the picture and Mel is close to a deal. So yes, it appears setiment is turning bullish with the ever so obvious tremendous upside. SIRI will never see these level again. I just bought more shares today. Hang in there all.
    2008 Sep 17 11:16 PM | Link | Reply
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    For what it is worth. I copied this from another news forum:

    "There is a rumor traveling around from a very credible source that Mel, who is friends with Donald trump, has met with Trump and two of Trump's creditors and a deal to take care of all outstanding debt in the early part of 2009 is almost finalized. The terms are very easy and since the merger, operating expenses have been smaller than once figured with subscriptions climing actually more rapid than originally expected, stock prices are expected to soar for a while and could easily be in the 4.00 range by the end of 2008. A reverse split has also been tossed around and if emplemented will make this a very attractive stock. Sirius stock is going to be expected to soar as it has bottomed out recently."
    2008 Sep 18 06:42 AM | Link | Reply
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    -That will be coming to a close when the financing deal is at hand. All (or most) of those bogus shares will have to be re-bought and returned to SIRI. When that happens the stock, the float, and the short interest will normalize.-

    s162, I can agree with many of your thoughts above. Unless the new bond debt, 7/28, is being paid off, the shares will not return to SIRI until the bonds mature, 2014.

    Unlike the 2-1/2% convertibles maturing in Feb. 09, these new ugly debt convertible bonds can be exchanged by the holders for shares or paid off by the company early. I doubt that paying them off is a priority until the other 2009 debt issues are resolved.

    These shares and their lending agreements, roughly 264 Mil, will remain as part of the Float outstanding until all bond principal is paid off or until maturity, 2014. According to GAAP, as reported by the company, they will not be part of company reporting metrics, EPS, etc. I don't think these shares are going away soon unless the new financing deal includes them.
    2008 Sep 18 07:12 AM | Link | Reply
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    Thanks cos...

    Bdp...great find. This makes perfect sense and is related to what I have said before. It is a given that Howard is less than happy with the decline in value of his 34mil shares that were part of his 500M deal with SIRI (the old SIRI). Howard is friends with Trump and most certainly has talked with him about options. Mel is an old NY guy and if not friends w/ Trump, has his respect as a businessman and a winner--which of course is what Trump is also. Trump can see SIRI is a healthy business, therefore sees (and seizes) the opportunity.

    This rumor is probably what has caused the last few MM jumps EOD this week. The picture becomes clearer...the time us near. Have a good one...
    2008 Sep 18 07:51 AM | Link | Reply
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    Oh, I just re-read Trump and Mel are friends so even better...no surprise. Two NY winners. And I do think there will be a reverse sometime into early '09 once the stock rehdrates a little (and rewards their loyal shareholders like many here--don't think Mel is not thinking about that)...then they'll probably reverse at about $4 - $5 at 1:4 or 1:5. Boy will this be a different looking company sometime into '09.
    2008 Sep 18 08:00 AM | Link | Reply
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    cos1000, I was asked to answer a question. I showed just how unlikely it was and even if they did file for protection, the Judge involved would try to first see if the company in question could make all payments and or pay off the debt, if they had more time to do so. The judge is looking for the best option. If the company can prove that it is a viable company and able to pay everyone back, if they could be given more time then he would give it to them. That is after all the reason for the *protection* part of "bankruptcy protection". This is the reason companies that are on the verge of being profitable generaly get the last part of the financing to get there. The lenders are the ones that generally get screwed when a company files for bankruptcy protection.
    2008 Sep 18 12:08 PM | Link | Reply
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    Trump will have his own TRUMP channel on SIRIUS/XM
    2008 Sep 18 12:48 PM | Link | Reply
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    All TRUMP all the time....AWESOME

    2008 Sep 18 12:57 PM | Link | Reply
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    BDP,
    Sorry to be a pessimist. But, what's your source.

    sl26,
    You are thinking the same as myself. I believe that someone has indicated that a solution to the near term loan (Feb '09) is at hand. The amount of shares sold/bought at one time indicates a substantial player. The last time announcements were made, they were post market. I believe that someone (group) is trying to time the move!
    2008 Sep 18 01:09 PM | Link | Reply
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    Hey remlor, give us the low down on the shorts trying to control the stock today now that the SEC says they are going to crack down.
    2008 Sep 18 01:19 PM | Link | Reply
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    Goldman Sachs, Like Steven Tyler sings, Going Down.
    2008 Sep 18 01:22 PM | Link | Reply
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    GS is being removed from God like status and MS taking it with no lubrication. Who will we listen to for stock advise?
    2008 Sep 18 01:25 PM | Link | Reply
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    SIRI Will not be de-listed... The stock would head through a reverse split if it seem apparent that they would not meet the standards.
    2008 Sep 18 01:25 PM | Link | Reply
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    wow could it be 2 days in a row in the positive/ what exactly is this reverse split?
    2008 Sep 18 01:31 PM | Link | Reply
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    source: www.investopedia.com/t...


    A reduction in the number of a corporation's shares outstanding that increases the par value of its stock or its earnings per share. The market value of the total number of shares (market capitalization) remains the same.

    For example, a 1-for-2 reverse split means you get half as many shares, but at twice the price. It's usually a bad sign if a company is forced to reverse split - firms do it to make their stock look more valuable when, in fact, nothing has changed. A company may also do a reverse split to avoid being delisted.
    2008 Sep 18 01:42 PM | Link | Reply
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    cramerh...

    A reverse is where a company reduces it's shares oustanding in lieu of an equivalent higher PPS. Simple example: If a company has 1M shares out and their stock price is $1, if they did a reverse at 1:10, they would wind up with 100,000 shares outstanding @ $10 a share. In both cases market cap is 1M but companies do this to raise their stock price so a different class of investor wants to buy in. Many investors won't even consider dollar stocks ($1 - $5).

    2008 Sep 18 01:51 PM | Link | Reply
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    btw...SIRI is up-ticking today and hits $1.05 in a swell at 12:30P--I watched the floodgates suddenly open on L2--went up .10 in about a minute...slides back to .96 for now but chances are good they could close over a buck today. Selling pressure has abated for now...
    2008 Sep 18 01:56 PM | Link | Reply
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    Today it will close at 1.30 at least!
    2008 Sep 18 01:59 PM | Link | Reply
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    how about 3.30
    2008 Sep 18 02:01 PM | Link | Reply
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    Baba (ta ta thoothie)...

    I'm not surprised to hear Trump is involved. A perfect fit with Howard and Mel. The SIRI will ride again...
    2008 Sep 18 02:01 PM | Link | Reply
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    bdp , what is your sorce on the trump story?
    2008 Sep 18 02:04 PM | Link | Reply
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    wait for the last thirty minutes!
    2008 Sep 18 02:06 PM | Link | Reply
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    Oh, and anyone who called for SIRI's NAS delisting...try, try again...
    2008 Sep 18 02:16 PM | Link | Reply
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    If the US Atty General wants to make a name for himself, he would prosecute naked short sales and require the firms be shut down, disgorged of profits, and the leaders jailed. I hope that this will happen. Tens of thousands of good people have lost their jobs and savings to this BS.
    2008 Sep 18 02:18 PM | Link | Reply
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    It looks like the shorts are finding new meat in the financials and have taken their eyes off Sirius XM for a few days.
    2008 Sep 18 02:36 PM | Link | Reply
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    Amen b t hedges...

    CNBC reported a little while ago NY AG Cuomo is launching an investigation on the stock collapses of BS, LEH & AIG--into the short sell side of it...

    What sucks on the short side (even non-naked) is the disproportion between what main street is able to do and what the hedges can do (whenever and however much they want). Their resorces of capital are vast while ours are miniscule. Some kind of limits should be put in place per day to make things more even. Oh, and I would get rid of pre market and after hours. That is where the hedges get the big advantage and cause main street the most losses.

    SIRI's Knocking back on the $1 door... .99
    2008 Sep 18 02:37 PM | Link | Reply
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    LOOK GUYS..................... The Big Blue Dog's Runnin again. What's that in his mouth? Why ...... It looks like a muscrat............ no it's a pairie dog...................... well i'll be damd..................... it's a friggin hairpiece!!!!! ......................... maybe it is true .........................
    2008 Sep 18 02:50 PM | Link | Reply
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    Seriously . The Donald would be quite an asset. His own show on Sirius xm?... not a bad idea. Run Blue Dog Runnnnnnnnnnn...
    2008 Sep 18 02:55 PM | Link | Reply
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    Read this article and tell me that the media is not biased... He COMPLETELY neglects the fact that the stock has seen 3 consecutive days of growth and the debt due next year is not that big of a hurdle...

    www.washingtonpost.com...

    I am not sure which astounds me more, this article, or that I am shocked that it was published... HA! He stats that closing at $0.94 was a bad thing... AFTER TWO DAYS OF UP! I can't believe what I read...
    2008 Sep 18 03:09 PM | Link | Reply
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    Looks good to close on an UP again today.......
    2008 Sep 18 03:32 PM | Link | Reply
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    falling,falling,fallin...
    2008 Sep 18 03:55 PM | Link | Reply
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    Here's a thought:

    I do believe Mel K is either very close or has the new financing terms locked in. However, to release such information now would be a mistake. The best thing for him to do is wait a month or or even more, to see how far the stock will climb based on rumors and speculation. (like today) Then release the news as the February deadline approaches. I predict the first press release will be that the financing for the initial $300 mil. is in place and they have their first hurdle conquered. This will wet everyone's appetite and stimulate a steady price increase after the initial spike. A bit further down the road, The next financial hurdle conquered. Another spike and steady climb. Lastly, the final frontier. Mel announces Sirius has successfully navigated through the shit storm and there are nothing but blue skies from here on out! Following this plan would assure a greater certainty of the price leaping over the 5.00+ mark to put Sirius back into the big leagues with Mel, once again coming out on top as the envy of the business world! If the news is released while it hovers around 1.00, the most expected upsurge could be maybe to around 1.50. (50%! That is awesome! Great news for those who bought in at .68!) So then. Where is there to go from there? Wall Street still hates this stock and will continue to do everything to undermine it. In the current insane state of the market, Sirius is still too fragile and could still get eaten alive. Expect more rumors and confusion surrounding this stock in the coming weeks and watch the momentum build as the market continues to correct itself. But don't expect Mel K. to make that magic announcement any time soon. As far as the Trump rumor, I found it early this morning when I was surfing the web hunting the scraps of info. Although I can't personally vouch for this info, I do believe it to be true. It makes sense. You see, Mel is a member of that elite Billionaire Boys Club along with Trump and all the rest. Don't think that they would turn their back while one of their brothers go down with the ship of humiliation. It would send a message of weakness and vulnerability that must never be associated with any of their kind.
    2008 Sep 18 04:03 PM | Link | Reply
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    SIRI, I never trust you any more!
    2008 Sep 18 04:05 PM | Link | Reply
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    This is n turtle race.. rest of the stock jumps even though they have 4 billion debt. see the stock WM .but SIRI...sucks.

    Mel doesnt know how to lead with management talk..bullshit
    2008 Sep 18 04:13 PM | Link | Reply
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    The naked shorts are screwedddd. This will be a career case for Cuomo. Bush is on a war path. As we have seen in the past, he does not quit when he gets pissed. Too many people have lost their jobs AND their 401 ks for this to be a bluff. I would be very very afraid if I had not followed the rules. I read that over 40,000 people are expected to lose both their job and their retirement over a combination of naked shorting combined with fraud on the market. Not rumoring, but absolute lying. Its going to get ugly.
    2008 Sep 18 04:25 PM | Link | Reply
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    I don't know if there's fire behind the smoke about Trump lending money to SIRI, but I have an idea. Can't SIRI XM give Trump a channel for his show and allow him to keep the ad revenue that he generates in exchange for the cash? Lets get in there Mel. Fight, fight!
    2008 Sep 18 04:37 PM | Link | Reply
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    Since this is my fist day back on RT LVL2 in a while, it was the first chance to watch the trading patterns. At about 3:15, some heavy ECN (Electronic Communication Network--which is where a lot of institutional trading comes from) action came in and over-rode the MM's, sending in the resistance at $1.02 and driving th price back down. Bid and Ask sizes were huge--75K, 100K, 300K. The MM's seemed to be locked out for a few minutes. The very last trade eeked out the .009 gain for today. A second before that it was down @ .92 or a loss for the day. As relmor says, this is all they have to do to make the stock do what they want any given day with all of those extra shares in the float. So, it's more than just shorting, it's manpulation at will. Interestingly, THE MOST ACTIVE MM today (Bid and Ask) was NSDQ (like stocks, MM's list as call letters)...I looked them up and that symbol is Nasdaq Execution Services. Hmmmm. They had many of the largest block sizes on both sides. I would love to be a fly on the wall to see the exact flow of all the extra shares. Overall though, SIRI held their own today nicely--considering the amount of people who wish they were @ .50 today instead of .949.

    Personally bdp, you might be right but while I don't think Mel will blow his wad with all the news at one time, I do think the beginning of it is not far off (once the deal is actualy done). SIRI does have that stock price stigma they would LOVE to get rid of, and they will not be happy with that for too much longer. It makes people PERCEIVE them as a weak company (which they are not). Also, I think if Mel likes the deal, he won't wait to sign on the dotted line and announce. It will be a relief for the company to have it in the rear-view and then they can start putting all efforts to the product. So as you say, now we've just seen a pretty easy move from .68 to 1.05 so we know the stock can move to the upside easily (despite the heavy float). I think Mel would like to see the stock back up over 2 asap. That gives the company their cred back and gets some of the naysayers off their back--who say they're the "company that couldn't." Someone here said $3 by Christmas and I think that's entirely probable (at least intraday) as the pendulum will now overshoot the other way once the real momentum starts. That's my take anyway.
    2008 Sep 18 04:49 PM | Link | Reply
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    I can see it now. Trump Financial Network channel. Trump would have a media channel to air and promote his show, The Apprentice. He could put some financial gurus on at different hours to discuss market conditions, buys, sells, real estate. He could reach out to 21 million and counting affluent people to discuss his properties. He could sell ad time to companies similar to CNBC. I would like to know what kind of ad revenue CNBC generates. Probably pretty nice. In exchange for the channel and maybe some convertibles or shares, he could give the cash needed by SIRI/XM. In addition to this, I continue to be impressed by the ideas on improving the credit crisis. Just recently, Cuomo to invesigate and possibly prosecute illegal short sales, a national fund for banks to sell failing mortgages, new naked short selling rules. My own personal opinion (not stock advise) is that this is bullish for sat rad.
    2008 Sep 18 05:11 PM | Link | Reply
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    With the lower pricing coming at $6.00 a month, I am more interested in getting SiriusXm for my home. There has to be a large amount of people like me waiting for the new pricing to install it not only in the car but in their home, Also, all the negative news on car sales is deceiving. Just think of all the older gas hogs that may not have Sirius/Xm,that will be traded in for new gas efficient models that will most likely have it in the new model. The trend is to smaller more efficient cars with more gadgets. The al la carte pricing will finally allow me to enjoy Commercial Free radio of my choice in my home. Can't wait-good riddens NAB.
    2008 Sep 18 05:12 PM | Link | Reply
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    Does anyone have an article or any proof of trump lending money. It sounds like Bullshit to me
    2008 Sep 18 05:18 PM | Link | Reply
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    I think the concept was that rather than lending proper, Trump is bringing Mel and some of his financiers together--though I wouldn't doubt Trump wants in on some of the action. If it turns out to be true, it's a no brainer for him. Trump only works with winners--and in this case he also knows Mel personally and that he's good for his word. Besides, you don't have to be a rocket scientist (or D. Trump) to know a great upside when you see it investment-wise.

    Capt knows...opportunities abound. Mad revenue is not far behind. I can't wait until SIRI buries the shorts, the float and all who say SIRI sucks!

    And Between, you're all over it. I would watch for Trump to do something on the network, even if he's not involved with the financing deal. But it just makes too much sense that he will be in some way...SIRI rocks!
    2008 Sep 18 05:47 PM | Link | Reply
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    I understand your point sl62 regarding my post. In the short run, I absolutely agree that a positive announcement would give the stock a jolt and possibly give them the cred of trading in the 2.0 league. But I think that this is not entirely the best way to play the game. Why create a quick leap and bounce around $2 when you can wait a bit more time and try to let the stock build on it's own first? There is a big difference between a 3.0 stock and a 2.0 stock in the way it is perceived emotionally. A 3.0 stock is on it's way up. It shows momentum. Where a 2.0 stock can as easily slide back down. What is important is not credibility among the market but ultimately appearing like a phoenix, slowly but surely rising, prying itself from the ashes of its own "thought to be" inevitable doom. I don't think a stigma can even factor into this so much. I suppose whatever happens will just have to unfold.
    2008 Sep 18 05:50 PM | Link | Reply
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    Read:

    online.barrons.com/art...
    2008 Sep 18 05:56 PM | Link | Reply
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    Sorry about that last post. It did not link to the proper page. I'll try to fix it.
    2008 Sep 18 05:58 PM | Link | Reply
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    Be careful what you wish for. If you look at his record, in most of his transactions Trump enriches himself while his partners are left holding the bag.
    2008 Sep 18 06:52 PM | Link | Reply
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    bdp: If your link won't work, try converting it at tinyurl.com. Unfortunately we have a link-length limit.
    2008 Sep 18 07:40 PM | Link | Reply
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    bdp, I agree with your 4:04 PM post on the release of news and the steady and slow climb of the SP with continued success in attaining financial goals, debt resolution with improved revenue growth. This is not a time for a "quick pop" without the foundation laid down first with this type of positive company performance.

    The "Hype" is out of the stock and company. Now its time to wow folks with great products and great partners. Rumors about Trump are nice and may well live in reality, but there is a bad 3rd quarter with everything but the kitchen sink going to be thrown into it from the merger still ahead. Releasing some good news at the time of this reporting will ease the pain, and then bring on the good stuff with a pre-announcement of better than expected and debt refinancing in early December. It won't take much to bring the stock back to the 2.5 - 3 range after that.
    2008 Sep 18 07:58 PM | Link | Reply
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    Trump has not always won, I remember Merv.
    2008 Sep 18 08:31 PM | Link | Reply
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    Timing is everything cos1000
    2008 Sep 18 08:37 PM | Link | Reply
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    cos, makes good sense and I'm cool with however things unfold because I know the company is a winner and will overcome all of this panic created by the FCC--thanks FCC! But keep this in mind. Once Mel announces the deal and lifts the proverbial 'cloud of doubt' on the company, the relationship between SIRI and Wall Street will normalize quite a bit. They are only being taken out now and held down because A. the uncertainty of the Feb '09 notes, which has led to B. the doubt SIRI can overcome 'defaulting'. Of course the new financing will eliminate that threat and then the stock will start performing more normally and even better because of not only those who dumped on the uncertainty re-buying, but on the interest of plenty of new investors. And don't forget, Mel already did the smart thing and lowered guidance, so a bad Q3 shouldn't hurt as much. He did the right thing there and decided to take the hit now when he knew his upcoming refi would offset the loss--since he knows things are f'd up anyway from the deal. Another brilliant move by Mel. After the news, I think the stock will go back to where is was pre merger, somewhere in the 2's (not over night but shortly thereafter)--which is where is should be (as many analyst targets say and which are based on current valuation, not speculation). From there, as the product develops, new features/relationships announced, and sentiment is better... who knows where it could go. I'll be there, wherever it is...
    2008 Sep 18 08:41 PM | Link | Reply
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    okay... which one of you guys are really Mel not being able to speak publicly yet........just too many good ideas I have been reading all day.... THAT MOON IS GETTING CLOSER THAN WE THINK
    2008 Sep 18 08:53 PM | Link | Reply
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    Who thinks that SIRI will be back above $1.00 tomorrow...??
    2008 Sep 18 09:05 PM | Link | Reply
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    It just occurred to me. I don't recall any mention of XM's revenue from General Aviation products. I've had, for several years, an XM real time weather data and moving map subscription that feeds into my aviation gps system. It costs me $80 per month and operates absolutely wonderfully. I absolutely rely on it for flight safety. I know many other pilots that subscribe to this service as well. As far as I know, this is the only GA accessible data service of it's kind. So Sirius is not only an entertainment provider but also a provider of sophisticated data streams to the aviation industry. In fact, this is how I was first introduced to satellite radio. XM radio channels were included with the aviation weather subscription and I listen to them while flying. Perhaps if Sirius XM were to be more visibly marketed from this angle, it would help deflect opinions of them being one dimensional. They are rather multi-faceted with a variety of potential.
    2008 Sep 18 09:12 PM | Link | Reply
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    bdp, That's sweet! Maybe it will be one of Mel's surprises for the 4Q report. "No one knows about it, so why tell? We will just blow the estimates out of the water!" SIRI will have like 3.5 B instead of 2.3 or whatever
    2008 Sep 18 10:16 PM | Link | Reply
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    siri up .05 ................. 9:12p.m. volume at 88,164,655.
    2008 Sep 18 11:15 PM | Link | Reply
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    Looks like here's the after hours jump news... Hey, the refi might have a tinge of ugliness to it too, but I still think the main thing will be that the company has then shored up the idea of defaulting. That, I believe is what dogs the stock the most right now. Even if the deal is at a higher rate than hoped for, Wall Street will focus on the deal itself getting done--Wall Street focuses on 6 months out rather than the present. It won't let you off the hook until it knows for sure you will even still be here in 6 months. Mel can always restructure the deal sometime next year when rates come down and the company will be in a much better position. All I know is the best thing that could hapen to this company is to get this 'deal' (merger AND refi) as far in the rear-view as possible so they can be focusing on what makes SATRAD and their company great--and get THAT stuff into the headlines instead of this junk...new growth will easily offset the extra bucks paid (for now) on the higher interest rate. As many here have offered recently, there are many new and exciting additional revenue generating ideas/applications just waiting for SIRI to launch. When they announce this deal, they should say that they will also be exploring any options to refi this new deal in '09 at a better rate--put the positive spin on it....and then just get busy GROWING THE COMPANY without the current bs over them...


    Qwest, Amgen, Sirius Scrap Deals, Pay 14% Amid Credit Crisis

    By Gabrielle Coppola and Amy Thomson

    Sept. 19 (Bloomberg) -- The credit markets seizure is hurting companies outside Wall Street as executives from Amgen Inc., Qwest Communications International Inc. and Sirius XM Radio Inc. cope with the soaring cost of money.

    Officials at Cablevision Systems Corp., Amgen and Qwest said they may use cash on hand to pay off debt as it comes due instead of rolling it over. Companies that must raise money, including Sirius and NextWave Wireless Inc., are paying as much as 14 percent in annual interest, the highest since 2002. NRG Energy Inc. canceled plans to refinance as much as $2 billion....

    ...Sirius, the New York satellite radio company created in the $2.76 billion all-stock purchase of XM Satellite Radio Holdings Inc. in July, has $300 million of bonds convertible into stock maturing in February. CEO Mel Karmazin said this week he plans to refinance the company's debt soon, although at an interest rate ``far higher than we'd like to pay.''

    Sirius debt coming due in February has a 2.5 percent coupon; the $550 million maturing in 2014 is at 7 percent....
    2008 Sep 19 01:55 AM | Link | Reply
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    This is what I was talking about in my last entry:

    www.xmradio.com/weathe...
    2008 Sep 19 06:06 AM | Link | Reply
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    Regarding my previous post, I actually now pay $99.99 per month for the aviator pro package. (I have a monthly subscription auto payment. It was $79.99 when I first subscribed) I wonder how many subscribers there are for this revenue stream? BTW: XM is also offered on United airlines as part of the free in flight entertainment. Sirius has a fantastic opportunity to push their service on the airline industry more aggressively offering basic free stations and optional pay per use passenger upgrades to the premium channels (I am sure early morning airline commuters would pay a few bucks for their fix of Howard Stern). Offer the airlines incentives to install systems and a sweet programming deal on the free selections. The main idea is to expose Sirius XM to a wider audience thus lining up potential new subscribers. This would most likely be more exposure for Sirius rather than a viable revenue generating product. Being a very successful business person myself, I am acutely aware of the importance of product exposure. Believe it or not, even in this crappy economy, my companies gross revenue is up from last year. It increases substantially each year, consistently for the past 15 years. This is completely attributed to both aggressive direct client contact and strategic advertising campaigns. It is important to keep on top of things and a step ahead. Seems like this is where Sirus has been lacking. Where are the TV commercials? Viral internet ad campaigns? etc... Where my competitors are cutting costs trying to stay afloat without cutting their huge salaries, I am spending more money out of my pocket discovering more opportunities to squash them. I know it sounds callous, but this is how business works and last year I bought out 2 of my competitors for peanuts. There needs to be more consumer excitement generated for this product and exposure to the product is the only way to achieve this. Like I said previously, I just happened upon satellite radio by default and was hooked immediately. This is how I ended up posting here as well as owning 326000 shares of stock. I truly believe in the merits of this product. As far as satellite radio taking a back seat to internet radio, well, nice try. It's like comparing a can of Red Bull to a warm mug of curdling milk. If I were just looking to jump on the bandwagon to turn a quick buck (which many of you have), I would never have exposed myself to the risk. My suggestion is no matter what rumors you hear, positive or negative, now is the time to buy. Don't be a sucker and sell yourself short. Go long. The worst thing you can do float more shares out there. The longer you go the happier your bank account will be! And please don't be a hypocrite. If you own this stock, you should own their product. Go out today and buy a Sirius receiver and a subscription. If every shareholder did this, there would the answer lay.
    2008 Sep 19 07:09 AM | Link | Reply
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    bdp,

    Good points. My take is we should start seeing more Ads going toward the holiday season--now that they know they can advertise themselves as Sirius XM rather than Sirius Satellite Radio. This one of the things that had to stay on the back burner because the FCC dragged it's feet...
    2008 Sep 19 08:48 AM | Link | Reply
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    bdp and sl62..................... In the above {Sept. 19, Bloomberg article}, Mel says on the debt. refinance that " at an interest rate far higher than we would like to pay." IYO, do you believe this statement to be made with an "Over Deliver" final outcome to be forthcoming soon for the purpose of a stock bump in $??? ......................... rather than true difficulty in getting a decent rate? killer.
    2008 Sep 19 10:22 AM | Link | Reply
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    killer...

    I think it's probably true that they will pay a higher rate given their CCC credit rating (and how tight credit is today--not that it's unavailable, just tight and lending institutions are taking advantage of having the upper hand, like the ups and downs of the mortgage market for instance)...how high...good question. I would think there's a good chance they could find something a little lower than the reported 14%. But personally, I think that part will for the short-term be semi-irrelevant since it's mainly SIRI alleviating the default potential that's key. Having a higher interest rate does nothing to their true growth story--which they will easliy prove in the coming Q's.
    2008 Sep 19 11:19 AM | Link | Reply
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    Thanks 62.
    2008 Sep 19 12:43 PM | Link | Reply
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    sdp, curious note that you may have overlooked. I believe that it's United airlines that will start offering internet service during their flights. That's the wave of the future. Of course internet radio sucks, because most people listen to radios in their cars, and that is the place most unreliable today for internet service. However, just like the people who wouldn't buy horseless carriages because the roads were too primitive to use them, that will change. Wireless internet is coming to your car soon, and when it does what happens to Sirius's monopoly? Why will I pay $15 a month for sat. radio, when I can probably have the whole internet for that. Two fo the best entertainment business people around are Stern and Winfrey, extraordianry business sense! How long will they stay on SR, when they can charge people say $5 a month to get them trhough the internet and keep all the cash for themselves. Furthermore, sending people to their websites will increase the advertising they can charge for the eyeballs there. Same holds true of the major league sports. They won't stay with SR one day past the time they can get more revenue through their own websites. Then SR will be left with talent like today's spectacular new release that KEVIN COSTNER and his band can be heard on one of their channels. lol (that' a true news release by the way, who could make that up)
    2008 Sep 19 02:44 PM | Link | Reply
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    I bet Howard's Losers could whip their butts.


    :-)
    2008 Sep 19 04:56 PM | Link | Reply
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    ok, as far as "overdeliver". Mel doesn't know "shareholder friendly" from a hole in the ground. It's unfortunate that they have so much debt and are cash flow negative, but hey, that's the reality. Credit ratings, cash flow, earning, and, Market Cap, not the stock price. 1$ ain't what it used to be with all the dilution. I feel for y'all, having been a Sirius shareholder twice. But bankruptsy is no fun for a company's hareholders, vis a vis some of the events of the past 10 days.

    These f--ckers like Tyler, pumping this s--t are unequivocally worthless scum. Stocks are to be evaluated, not pumped.

    Good luck
    2008 Sep 20 12:56 AM | Link | Reply
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    ha..hareholders, I meant shareholders
    2008 Sep 20 12:57 AM | Link | Reply
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    Konst.....
    Every point in time for a stockholder is a different story. Sorry you had bad experiences, but if you bought shares at 1.82, and sold at 2.75(possible) you wouldnt be angry with Sirius. Dont hate the stock cause you played it wrong. And dont be mad at the company either.
    2008 Sep 20 05:58 PM | Link | Reply
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    Relmor, Amen brother......

    2008 Sep 21 11:56 AM | Link | Reply
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    Konst.................... 1.82 and sell at 2.75, and I think you would be giving kudos to Tyler. Yes/no? I thought so.......................
    2008 Sep 21 10:46 PM | Link | Reply
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    You did not "play", at this point it's speculation, and you got lucky. I did not really have a bad experience with this stock. I netted positive overall. That is not my point. I think the practice of pumping stocks is misguided and detrimental. What is sad, is when you disregard the facts:
    -money losing business
    -heavily in debt
    -competition that emerged which puts the business model's viability at risk
    -management which is oblivious and or helpless to creating shareholder value
    -radio us kind of over, it was replaced by TV

    but hey, nothing wrong with speculation, I suppose, if you accept the risk,
    anyway, the whole siriusbuzz and similar phenomena irk me,

    Good luck everyone, but analyzing the fundamentals and the competition is probably a safer idea than luck
    2008 Sep 22 03:32 PM | Link | Reply
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    as I said, 1.82- 2.75, a gambling profit, the fundamentals of the business do not warrant a positive stock price, this stock has been moving on hype waxing and waning since it became public, shareholders have negative equity,

    and again, I am not angry, I actually made made money on this dubious stock. By the way, if they straighten out their financing and begin to have a positive cash flow, it may be a good stock at that point.
    2008 Sep 22 03:37 PM | Link | Reply
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    I don't believe everything I read about SIRI...I believe SIRI is now a garbage stock on recent performance. No matter what spin is put on it, a 60% devaluation is still a frickin loss of value.
    2008 Sep 24 09:25 AM | Link | Reply