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Forest Oil (NYSE:FST)

Q3 2012 Earnings Call

October 30, 2012 11:00 am ET

Executives

Larry C. Busnardo - Director of Investor Relations

Michael N. Kennedy - Chief Financial Officer and Executive Vice President

Patrick R. McDonald - Chief Executive Officer, President, Director and Member of Executive Committee

Analysts

David R. Tameron - Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Research Division

Michael A. Hall - Robert W. Baird & Co. Incorporated, Research Division

Pearce W. Hammond - Simmons & Company International, Research Division

Brian Lively - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc., Research Division

James Spicer - Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Research Division

Brian T. Velie - Capital One Southcoast, Inc., Research Division

Jeffrey W. Robertson - Barclays Capital, Research Division

Andre Benjamin - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division

Operator

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Q3 2012 Forest Oil Corporation Earnings Conference Call. My name is Alex, and I will be your operator today. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this call is being recorded for replay and transcription purposes. I would now like to hand over to Larry Busnardo, Director of Investor Relations. Go ahead, please, sir.

Larry C. Busnardo

Good morning. I want to thank you for participating in our third quarter 2012 earnings conference call. A replay of this call will be available through November 14 and the details are in our press release that was issued yesterday afternoon.

Joining me on the call today is Patrick McDonald, Forest President and Chief Executive Officer; and Michael Kennedy, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

Some of the presenters today will reference certain non-GAAP financial measures regularly used by Forest in measuring its financial performance. Reconciliations of such non-GAAP financial measures with the most comparable financial measure calculated in accordance with GAAP will be available on our website and be viewed by clicking on the Investor Relations tab, then Non-GAAP at forestoil.com.

In addition, I'd like to caution you about our forward-looking statements. All statements other than statements of historical facts that address activities and outcomes that Forest expects, assumes, plans, believes, budgets, forecasts, projects, estimates, anticipates, et cetera, about what will, should or may occur in the future are forward-looking statements. Please carefully review our cautionary language regarding forward-looking statements as it's contained at the end of our press release.

With that, I'll now turn the call over to Michael.

Michael N. Kennedy

Thanks, Larry, and thanks to everyone joining us today. I know many people are currently being impacted by the storms back east. They are in thoughts and prayers for quick and safe recovery.

I will focus my comments today on some of the financial highlights for the third quarter as the press release issued yesterday afternoon covers the quarter in good detail.

Third quarter 2012 equivalent production came in at $339 million per day, which was at the high end of the second half guidance of $330 million to $340 million per day. This represents a 5% increase on a year-over-year basis and a 1% increase over second quarter 2012 volumes.

Importantly, our liquids contribution increased to 34% of total production. This compares to 27% in the third quarter of 2011 and is a 25% year-over-year increase and 6% quarter-over-quarter increase. This was driven by an increase in third quarter oil volumes, which increased 29% over the same period last year and 7% higher on a sequential basis as a result of our increased focus on projects targeting the shallower oil zones in the Panhandle Area and our development program in the Eagle Ford.

Note that this growth was accomplished entirely on an organic basis. I would expect that this upward trend on oil volumes should continue as Forest has 4 of its 5 rigs targeting higher-margin oil projects.

Capital spending in the quarter was $166 million as we started the third quarter operating 9 rigs, but we entered the fourth quarter running 5 rigs. This level of activity is consistent with our second half of 2012 budget of $240 million to $260 million, and our spending for the fourth quarter is now closely aligned with our expected cash flow.

We made significant progress towards achieving our goal of improving the company's financial flexibility. The first step was the adjustment of our capital program. Our second step was the earlier-than-anticipated execution of our noncore asset divestiture program.

We announced agreements to sell approximately $277 million in noncore assets during the third quarter. This was highlighted by the announced sale of our Southeast Ana [ph] properties for $220 million. Only $7 million of these divestitures closed in the third quarter. The remaining $270 million is scheduled to close in November.

Pro forma for these pending divestitures, total debt is approximately $1.8 billion. This process continues and we'll keep you updated on our further progress, and we plan to update 2012 guidance after the divestiture closes in mid-November.

Our third step was to opportunistically take advantage of favorable high-yield market conditions in September as we completed a $500 million senior notes offering. Proceeds were used to fund the redemption of half of the outstanding amount due on our 2014 notes. In addition to extending Forest debt maturities, we were able to significantly reduce the refinancing risks related to the 2014 notes.

Our hedge position continues to work in our favor as we realized a 44% uplift to our unhedged realized gas price and a $26 million total gain on our hedges during the third quarter. We continue to selectively add to our hedge portfolio to protect cash flow. We took advantage of the spike in natural gas prices during September to begin hedging our 2014 volumes. We have initially added $40 million a day of swaps at $4.50 and we'll continue to opportunistically add to this position.

On the oil side, we were also able to capture spike as we added 4,000 barrels a day of 2013 swaps at an attractive price of $95.33. A full summary of our hedge position can be found on Page 7 of the press release or in the 10-Q filed this morning.

To summarize the third quarter. Forest was able to make excellent progress on increasing the company's financial flexibility with the divestitures and high-yield offering and we continue to organically grow our oil production. Our capital spending is now in line with our projected cash flow and we are actively protecting our cash flow with our oil and natural gas hedge programs.

I will now turn the call over to Pat McDonald for comments.

Patrick R. McDonald

Okay, thanks, Michael. Thanks, everyone, for joining us today. We are pleased with the progress that the company has made since we announced our strategic initiatives back in July. We continue on that same path and we look forward to continued gains and achievements in that regard. We will be focused on our oil development program, highlighted by the Hogshooter results in the Texas Panhandle and our Eagle Ford oil projects in South Texas.

Our focus is on growing our oil volumes and increasing our financial flexibility. We are pleased with the progress on the noncore asset divestiture program and we look -- we'll continue that through the end of '12 and into 2013. Mike and his group did a good job in restructuring the debt with the issuance of the senior notes and we feel that we're in the early stages of achieving our strategic goals and we plan to continue on over the next several quarters.

In the Texas Panhandle, we're pleased with the results from the Hogshooter zone in the Camp South field. An initial well there completed a rate of 1,600 barrels a day, 70-plus percent oil, very encouraging results and we feel that there is more to come in that area as we begin to understand the zone and its aerial extent, which we believe also extends down into the Frye Ranch Field Area, where we completed one Hogshooter well in the quarter that had initial production of 2,000 barrels a day at 67% oil.

All-in so far, we've completed 7 Hogshooter wells in the Frye Ranch Area and with initial rates averaging approximately 2,600 barrels of oil per day. So very encouraging results.

We're also focused on the Douglas formation in the Texas Panhandle. We drilled one well in Hemphill County, had an initial rate of 715 barrels a day equivalent with 62% of that being crude oil. The Douglas is a shallower oil zone and with a lower cost, probably in the $4.5 million to $5 million range versus the deeper zone -- oil zones in the Panhandle.

These results and others continue to demonstrate the resource potential that we believe exists within the multiple oil zones in the Texas Panhandle. The 8 Hogshooter wells we drilled in about a year have produced nearly 1 million barrels equivalent of oil, a pretty impressive number for a relatively small number of wells in a short period of time.

In the Eagle Ford program in -- down in Gonzales County, we've got a 2-rig program focused on the central fairway designed to hold our 40,000-acre core position. We're pleased with the Eagle Ford production. We've been able to increase third quarter oil volumes, growing 50% over the second quarter. We're at about 1,800 barrels per day and we look to -- that to increase as time goes on throughout 2012 and '13.

We're now focused on capital efficiency program development of the Eagle Ford position. We'd like to move to pad drilling activities. We've installed a rig walking system that will allow us to skid the rig over in much shorter time period and allow us to drill 4 well pad locations in approximately 60 days, a significant time savings over current single well style drilling.

With these efficiencies and the other operating efficiencies of going to a pad drilling and a focus development program should allow us to drop our well costs and also our lease operating costs as we go forward.

We're pleased with the results so far to-date in our generation 2 type completions where recent wells are all performing at or above the type curve and we've had some recent initial production rates that are very encouraging along those lines.

We are testing out a restricted rate pilot program on a group of wells to see if we can enhance the recoverability and production efficiency. It's essentially the difference between running a submersible pump and a rod pump. We're evaluating the results of that program and trying to establish the most efficient and capital efficient what -- method of producing these wells as we go forward into 2013.

The focus on the Eagle Ford is driving our costs lower and increasing our capital efficiency. We feel that we've got the production -- drilling and production and completion scheme outlined and now we're looking forward to driving cost out of the process and enhancing the overall productivity and ultimate recovery of the wells.

This oil, as you all know, is crude oil, black oil and we receive South Louisiana light pricing for that oil with the current spread nearly $20 over WTI. So that's a nice enhancer for the return on those projects.

In -- so generally, we're pleased with the progress. We're on the same course and we look forward to continuing here along in the very focused plan on the Eagle Ford or East Texas oil projects and especially our Panhandle oil prospects and I think we'll have pretty much the same story going forward in '13, focused on these 3 core areas.

I -- that concludes my sort of formal introductory remarks and we'd be happy to open call to any questions that anyone might have for the group here. Thank you.

Question-and-Answer Session

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of David Tameron from Wells Fargo.

David R. Tameron - Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Research Division

Let me just ask a couple, then I'll give somebody else a chance to jump in. First, on the -- Mike, can you talk about the capital -- CapEx budget? If you do the math, it looks like fourth quarter you had to come down to between $80 million and $100 million, which is down substantially from the third quarter. Can you just talk about reconciling those 2 numbers for us?

Michael N. Kennedy

Yes, sure, David. That's -- your math is correct. We entered third quarter with 9 rigs. We didn't get down to the 5-rig run rate that we're at right now until late September. So just per rig per month, per dollars will get you that.

David R. Tameron - Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Research Division

Okay. So you're still tracking to that full year second half number?

Michael N. Kennedy

That's correct.

David R. Tameron - Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Research Division

Okay. Divestitures, and whoever wants to take this, can you just talk about, I mean obviously South Louisiana got sold. Can you talk about what else is still out there and maybe specifically in the Permian kind of what -- where you're at in that package and any timing or any more color you can give us on potential investments?

Patrick R. McDonald

Yes, Dave, the Permian packages are still slated for sales noncore asset and that process is underway, and we think we're still on a time line, as we said earlier, this fall to hit our -- over the next couple of quarters.

David R. Tameron - Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Research Division

Okay. And, Pat, any other packages that are potential investments that you care to discuss?

Patrick R. McDonald

Not at the moment. I mean we have some smaller pieces of noncore that are in various stages of closing, pending or being offered for sale.

Michael N. Kennedy

Yes, David, it's mainly the acreage and I think the one that we'd highlight is the Southern portion of the Eagle Ford. It's continuing to get some attention and then there's this other small acreage positions around our portfolio but nothing material.

Operator

The next question comes from the line of Michael Hall, Robert W. Baird.

Michael A. Hall - Robert W. Baird & Co. Incorporated, Research Division

I guess couple things on my end. First, is there any situation in which or any kind of scenario in which you could envision shifting that East Texas rig to the Eagle Ford? I know in the past, you've talked about being hesitant to totally shut down that program, but if you continue to have good results in the Eagle Ford and the initiative is to continue driving oil growth, does it ever make sense or is that still kind of a no-go?

Patrick R. McDonald

We'll address the highest rate of return projects. And right now, that East Texas rig has drilled some very attractive oil prospects, but that's a reasonable question. We'll evaluate as we go forward into 2013 what we do with that capital, that rig.

Michael A. Hall - Robert W. Baird & Co. Incorporated, Research Division

Okay. And then in the Hogshooter program, you mentioned you've got a -- good, strong, successful wells. I mean, any color on EUR estimates at this point and how we ought to think about that?

Michael N. Kennedy

Yes, in the past, we've said that there's a couple of different benches in the Hogshooter, but the Hogshooter B or the middle section is up to 500,000 barrel EUR. The other 2 benches are around 350,000 barrel EUR.

Michael A. Hall - Robert W. Baird & Co. Incorporated, Research Division

Okay, but no update to those views?

Michael N. Kennedy

No, not yet. We're just going to…

Patrick R. McDonald

We're still early on in the program, but we've been very encouraged with what we see so far.

Michael A. Hall - Robert W. Baird & Co. Incorporated, Research Division

Okay, and then last one on my end I guess would be any targets or expectations on how many wells will be drilled and completed per area in the fourth quarter, Panhandle, East Texas and South Texas?

Michael N. Kennedy

Well, the way we think about it, if each rig in the Panhandle gets you about 6 to 7 wells a year, so that would be 1.5 to 2 per rig. We've got 2 rigs, so that'll get you 4 to 5 wells. Similar story on the East Texas, so that's 1.5 to 2 wells and then the Eagle Ford, they're actually drilling faster than we anticipated. Each rig gets you about 4.5 wells per quarter so that could be between 6 and 10 wells.

Operator

The next question comes from Pearce Hammond, Simmons.

Pearce W. Hammond - Simmons & Company International, Research Division

In the Missourian Wash, the 3 zones in a prior presentation you had identified about 45 locations and so with the extended fairway in the Hogshooter, do you think that number is going to go up?

Patrick R. McDonald

We do and we're currently in the process of our 3P resource style evaluation of our Panhandle assets and we do believe that, that number will increase here as we start to book locations, identify additional places to drill.

Pearce W. Hammond - Simmons & Company International, Research Division

And then on that 3P locational count, do you think that'll be coming, say, early part of next year?

Patrick R. McDonald

Yes, I think that, internally, that's the time line we're on, try to finish it off internally here in the next 30 days or so and then we'll be ready to move forward with allocating capital in 2013.

Pearce W. Hammond - Simmons & Company International, Research Division

Great. And then shifting gears, I know you're going to update your production guidance once the divestiture has closed, but in the third quarter, the production from the potentially divested assets is around 22 million cubic feet equivalent a day as per your press release. How should we think about fourth quarter production just broadly as to what the impact might be from the potential transaction to the divestitures?

Michael N. Kennedy

Pearce, I think we've provided all the numbers you just quoted are accurate, so assuming a mid-November sales South Louisiana and obviously, we'd have that production for half a quarter.

Pearce W. Hammond - Simmons & Company International, Research Division

Great. And then finally, turning to the Haynesville, obviously, you're getting a better rate of return over in East Texas than in Louisiana. Would you consider the Haynesville gas assets core at this point or maybe even a noncore asset?

Patrick R. McDonald

No, they're considered the core asset, very attractive projects at a gas price that supports our internal rate of return hurdle, that core asset.

Pearce W. Hammond - Simmons & Company International, Research Division

What gas price do you think you would get active again in the Haynesville, given that we've seen a nice uptick in the calendar year '13 NYMEX gas prices?

Patrick R. McDonald

Something higher than it is now and which competes with our oil projects.

Operator

The next question comes from Brian Lively with Tudor, Pickering, Holt.

Brian Lively - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc., Research Division

Just looking at the Q3 volumes versus Q2, I know you had some production shut-in in Q2 that came back online. And so on a quarterly basis, there's a slight down tick. As you guys think about Q4 and then I understand the asset, as you think organically about 2013, what are you guys thinking in terms of an actual decline assuming your activity levels sort of stay where they are today?

Michael N. Kennedy

Well, first, on the -- we just didn't -- we suffered some downtime in the third quarter as well so our production was actually up quarter-over-quarter. So we just didn't want to continue to have downtime as part of the press release so we excluded that. Going forward, we haven't formulated our 2013 plan, we're in that current process with the board so we really can't answer that question.

Brian Lively - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc., Research Division

That's understandable, but as you think about the spending in Q4 and the desire to kind of live within around your cash flow levels, isn't it reasonable to assume that you're going to be flat from an activity standpoint, kind of flat to down next year or is that the wrong way to think about it?

Michael N. Kennedy

No, that's the right way to think about it.

Brian Lively - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc., Research Division

And so for -- if assuming that is, I mean I'm assuming that the absolute production will be declining next year although you'd probably get some liquids growth. Is that just kind of how you guys think about it going in?

Michael N. Kennedy

Yes, the way we're thinking about it is more from an EBITDA and cash flow perspective and less from a headline production number. We're focusing on the oil projects. Obviously, that captures a lot of margin compared to natural gas production. So we're thinking of it more from a rate of return standpoint and cash flow and EBITDA, and from that standpoint, it shouldn't be down.

Brian Lively - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc., Research Division

Okay, that's helpful. And then just sort of book-keeping question on number of wells waiting on completion company-wide, where do you guys sit right now? And how do you project those coming in, in the fourth quarter?

Patrick R. McDonald

We don't have a large inventory of uncompleted projects. I mean we drill them and complete them so there might be your normal lag between final drilling and frac-ing and bringing online, but nothing material.

Brian Lively - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc., Research Division

Okay, so just normal course there. And then just last question for me on -- I think you guys said that you are set up to do another redetermination sometime between October and November. Just where do you guys stand in that process right now?

Michael N. Kennedy

That already occurred, Brian. We are -- if you remember the high yield issuance reduced the borrowing base from $1.25 billion to $1.2 billion and then the redetermination came in at $1.15 billion borrowing base.

Brian Lively - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc., Research Division

Okay. I -- so there's not going to be an additional redetermination post the asset sales, then?

Michael N. Kennedy

And then in the asset sales, we've -- in the 10-Q, right now the number that is being recommended by the agent is $80 million reduction. So after that, we'll be at $1.070 billion.

Operator

The next question comes from the line of James Spicer from Wells Fargo.

James Spicer - Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Research Division

My question on the borrowing base was just answered actually, but I had another one, just on the divestiture program in aggregate here. How do we think about the size and magnitude of that program? Are there specific metrics that you're targeting as a result of the program?

Michael N. Kennedy

No, I mean we haven't communicated any specific ones. What we want is to return the financial flexibility of the balance sheet to us like somewhat in and around debt-to-EBITDA of 3x, but that's going to be dependent on commodity prices and the like, so there's not an absolute debt level target but we need to get closer to the 3x debt-to-EBITDA metric.

James Spicer - Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Research Division

Okay. So when we think about potential sales in 2013, is there sort of a number we should think about?

Michael N. Kennedy

No, I mean right now, we're running a little over $500 million of EBITDA that would put the debt that we target at $1.5 billion. Pro forma for these transactions, we're at $1.8 billion, so a couple hundred million more is probably what our plans will be.

Operator

The next question comes from the line of Brian Velie from Capital One Southcoast.

Brian T. Velie - Capital One Southcoast, Inc., Research Division

Just a couple of quick questions. On the Eagle Ford you mentioned that the recent wells announced they're still tracking above the type curve that you're using right now. Is that type curve still that 3 – or still reflect the 350,000 barrels EUR?

Patrick R. McDonald

No, it's 300,000.

Brian T. Velie - Capital One Southcoast, Inc., Research Division

300,000, okay. So that's kind of base case, and these are doing better than that. And then in the Hogshooter, the 500,000 barrel, just I know that your long-term results, we don't have a whole lot right now, but for a 500,000-barrel EUR in that middle interval, with some of the IPs that have come on, is it fair to assume that these might be declining faster than say, in Eagle Ford?

Michael N. Kennedy

No, they all have hyperbolic declines.

Operator

The next question comes from the line of Jeff Robertson from Barclays.

Jeffrey W. Robertson - Barclays Capital, Research Division

Most of my questions have already been answered, but Mike, just on the divestitures, to hit your roughly $1.5 billion debt target, you're basically looking at selling non-EBITDA contributing assets to get you down to your 3x multiple, is that correct?

Michael N. Kennedy

Yes, that's the first priority.

Jeffrey W. Robertson - Barclays Capital, Research Division

Once you hit there or once you get the balance sheet where you want it, can you all talk a little bit about what your strategies are around any kind of new ventures or a different tack on exploiting the assets you currently have?

Patrick R. McDonald

I think the key is your second point, Jeff, the key is to exploit the assets we already have. We're not anxious about looking around for things to acquire unless they're absolute bolt-on type acquisitions. We've got so much -- so many opportunities to allocate our capital that we're happy to stay home and work on those projects.

Jeffrey W. Robertson - Barclays Capital, Research Division

Do you have any kind of a view yet as far as just maybe percentage terms of capital allocation for '13 between the Panhandle plays and the Eagle Ford and East Texas?

Patrick R. McDonald

Well, if we're planning to run or continue with our 5-rig program, 2 in the Eagle Ford, 2 in the Panhandle, 1 in East Texas, that's more or less the percentage allocation between the 3 asset bases.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] The next question comes from the line of Andre Benjamin.

Andre Benjamin - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division

First question, your press release indicates there are currently 4 intervals that you're targeting across the Texas Panhandle. Could you give us a little more direction on, I guess, think about the timing of exploiting those zones? Is there any update to the location numbers versus your October presentation? And then what would we need to see for you to go back to potentially go back to put in some of the wash zones in focus [ph]?

Patrick R. McDonald

Yes, I would say there's not necessarily an update on the number of locations, but those 4 zones that we referenced are the ones that rise to the top when we're looking at the rate of return for these various oil projects. And to differentiate between the 4 zones, I would say that they're all equal more or less rate of return on capital.

Michael N. Kennedy

And for the wash zones, we have DCP Midstream building out the Southern Hills pipeline to our Panhandle assets, which will allow us Bellevue pricing and that's supposed to be completed by mid-next year. So we'll consider that in evaluation of the economics of those projects.

Andre Benjamin - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division

That's helpful. And then I know this is somewhat of a follow-up to your prior conversation about this focusing on the bolt-on acquisitions, but you've got 3 key plays, do you guys feel like you have the running room and the inventory necessary to drive the company longer term or should we expect you to kind of just hunker down for now but consider some additional actions to maybe shift the company in the future?

Patrick R. McDonald

I think with the vast acreage position, most of which is held by production, operated in high working interest, we've got plenty of opportunities in those 3 areas to sustain this development program far into future.

Andre Benjamin - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division

Great. And then, I guess, the last thing would be on the Eagle Ford, what do you think that you would need to see from your restricted wells through testing in order to be convinced that, that's the optimal technique and…

Patrick R. McDonald

We're still waiting, evaluating the results from the 2 different initial production methods and we're not ready to make a final call on that. Our goal is we'll come up with the one that generates the highest rate of return on the capital invested.

Operator

There are no further questions in the queue at this time. So I'd like to hand the call back to Larry Busnardo for closing remarks.

Larry C. Busnardo

Okay. This concludes our conference call. I want to thank everyone for their interest and participation in the call. If you have any questions, feel free to give us a call. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you for joining today's conference. This concludes the presentation. You may now disconnect. Good day.

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