Seeking Alpha

James Picerno

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First it was Bear Stearns. Then the government bailed out Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE). Before the ink was dry on that deal, Uncle Sam loaned $85 billion to insurance giant AIG in exchange for an 80% stake in the company. Along the way, the Fed has been throwing money every which way, depending on the day.

But wait: there's more. In the last 24 hours, a new round of government bailout efforts are underway. Yesterday, Congressional, Federal Reserve and Treasury officials were talking of launching a massive government fund to buy up the toxic securities from investment banks and other institutions. Meanwhile, the SEC announced a ban on short selling on nearly 800 financial stocks. And the Treasury is now insuring money market funds to shore up sentiment in the wake of news that the Reserve Fund — a money market portfolio — broke the buck this week, i.e., its net asset value fell below $1. The drop stoked fears that even cash equivalents might not be safe.

The government, in other words, is throwing everything but the kitchen sink at the bear market. There's some logic to this, of course. Preventing bank runs and the like is just common sense. But how much is too much? Or too little? Alas, intervention is an art, not a science. Financial turmoil of the degree we've seen this week is rare, and so there's not a lot of precedent. The early 1930s are an obvious era for study, but the relevance is limited, since two or three have changed the days of FDR and "brother can you spare a dime."

Meanwhile, asset prices want to fall, and interest rates want to rise (i.e., those rates that involved private parties that can't print their own money). But the government is doing everything in its power to keep Mr. Market from having his way. This is reasonable, up to a point, although it's a safe bet that it'll take time before we know where reason ended and moral hazard began.

One can be forgiven for wondering if the latest batch of fixes will fare any better than the previous ones. Since the Bear Stearns bailout earlier this year, each new "solution" was initially greeted with cheers in the stock market only to be followed by more selling. Will the new fixes do any better?

Maybe. But it's debatable if government intervention, massive though it is in cumulative terms these past months, can engineer a bullish aura of any duration.

For the moment, however, hope springs eternal. Out of the gate this morning, stocks surged skyward. But after the warm glow of yet another of government intervention cools, how much bullish enthusiasm will remain? As troubling as all the toxic securities problem is, it's still a symptom of deeper problem, starting with the correcting real estate market. Meanwhile, there's the issue of consumer spending, which was already faltering before the latest ills went ballistic. It's hard to imagine that Joe Sixpack will take inspiration from all this news and run out and buy a new wide-screen TV.

The government can keep bailing out firms, buying up securities no one else wants, and guaranteeing money market funds. But the cycle will have its way eventually, in part because sentiment and psychology can't be denied.

It's worth repeating the reality that prices want to fall and interest rates want to rise. It's not clear that the government can change that reality. And while the government theoretically has access to unlimited amounts money to throw at problems, in practice there's a limit if only because the dollar is regularly valued vis a vis other currencies and gold. At some point, cranking up the printing presses to bail out Acme Finance is self-defeating because the marginal gains of injecting liquidity are more than offset by a slump in the purchasing power of the buck.

Of course, we're talking of medium- and long-term worries, and for the moment all the concern is about what happens in two hours. But at some point the fires will stop burning, the smoke will clear and the crowd will look out six months or a year and reassess prices and interest rates. This much is clear: fundamentals will regain their place as the dominant force in pricing. Exactly when that happens is unclear. Meantime, it's all noise.

Remember, too, that financial crises are nothing new, nor are interventions of one sort or another. In the panic of 1907, for instance, J.P. Morgan--the man--orchestrated a private-sector bailout of sorts. In some sense, we're not in uncharted territory in 2008. The future, on the other hand, is always unknown.

The details of the full government-sponsored bailouts will determine much of what happens in the markets and the economy in coming years. The challenge is that we don't yet know the details, and the future, well, it's still the future.

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This article has 72 comments:

  •  
    spot on.
    2008 Sep 19 11:28 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    yes...spot on.

    if this doesn't push interest rates substantially higher i don't know what will. the socialists got their bailout. i suspect their euphoria will be short lived.
    2008 Sep 19 11:48 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Even if it works as planned, it fails to help consumers who need liquidity themselves. The banks may survive, but the customers may not be credit worthy, so it does not matter much. The fix is of no value to the consumers who are wallowing in debts and about to take gas. Same goes for small business who are suffering loss of demand. When the lay-offs get a head of steam it may occur to Hank that he fixed only part of the problem. The "hammer" just hammered us.
    2008 Sep 19 12:17 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    icandoitdon,

    It appears that national socialism has been established by those who told us the greatest threat was socialism, just like last time. Perhaps it always happens that way.

    BTW, did anybody realize that the govt. now owns a majority stake in their house, and that they pay the govt. to live in it. Creepy? Anyone?
    2008 Sep 19 12:23 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    First it was "save Bear Stearns and save the world" then it was "save Fannie and Freddie and save the world" now we seem to be at the point where it's "save the world and save the world".
    My question is who do we have to save next to save the world?
    2008 Sep 19 02:26 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    "My question is who do we have to save next to save the world? "

    The challenge as I see it is the government minions are blowing the wad trying to save Wall Street. Unfortunately, they are simply passing along the liability to taxpayers, kind of like what happened in Japan in the early 1990s after their meltdown (that is still underway).

    The problem is that as the recession worsens, Main Street will be next, consumer spending will fall as more get laid off and the economy weakens. Given that the Fed and government have now discouraged foreigners from investing in Treasuries see tradesystemguru.com/im... who will be left to bail out Main Street amid rising interest rates?
    2008 Sep 19 03:15 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Remember when Paulson used the bazooka analogy to coax a blank check from the Congress to save Franny? At that time, the estimate the taxpayers might have to fork out if his plan did not stabilize the GSE was about 25 billion dollars. The tax payers are tapped for over 200 billion dollars MINIMUM for Franny so far.
    Now Paulson is asking a blank check from the Congress to the tune of over 800 billion dollars. Apparently he has moved up to using a nuclear bomb. And the true cost will be in trillions of dollars.
    Time and time again, Paulson has proved that his words are meaningless. Remember how he reassured us in 2007 by saying that the US and global economies were never better? If the Congress goes along with his proposal again, there is something seriously wrong with the workings of our "democracy." All the incumbent senators and congressmen should be thrown out with Paulson. More importantly, vote against the presidential candidate that sympathizes with Paulson's plan.
    2008 Sep 19 05:50 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    One more point. Paulson's trillion dollar plan to address the bad debts of financial institutions do not solve the real problem. Those debts are bad because housing price is falling and homeowners are defaulting. Paulson's plan will clearly help the bankers, but will do nothing about the rising defaults and falling housing price.
    2008 Sep 19 05:59 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    don't worry about the consumer who is underwater on his mortgage. there is a mortgage bailout plan afoot. when you've committed a trillion or two to help wall street) the only way to keep the natives quiet is to throw them a bone too. look for it.

    it's also interesting (and quite funny) to watch the greedy bankers scream like hell about the treasury's plan to insure money market funds. banks will lose billions in deposits if this happens unless they match money market rates. ordinarily it would be hilarious but it's hard to laugh at our country having become a bananna republic. there is more capitalism in china and russia than in the united socialist states of america.
    2008 Sep 19 08:26 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Printing money with an already 10 trillion dollar debt is not sound economical advice.
    2008 Sep 20 02:33 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Look it from the brighter side: if the government buys off all motrgages in trouble then the Fannie/Freddie bailout will come FREE to the taxpayer!
    2008 Sep 20 03:49 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    There is reason for skepticism, of course, but there is also reason that this intervention might actually do more than just give Wall Street a temporary boost. If the govt. can take the toxic funds off the banks' hands, they will be free to lend again without fear of nothing being capitalized. If those loans are made prudently, they will generate income and keep the economy going. The govt. meanwhile should be able to sell off the assets behind the bad loans over time without too much money being lost. It's win-win, if all goes well.
    2008 Sep 20 05:16 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    If the gov. buys the paper at 65% and restructures the loans at decent historical rates,say 7%,they could make it work..at least in theory..
    2008 Sep 20 05:39 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Where's the outrage that we the ordinary taxpayers will end up paying the bill. Even if its only $1 vs. the $trillions that many fear, its not right. The folks that should be held accountable still have their $millions and will probably recieve even more $millions. As a starter, write your congressman "today" and demand that any bailout address eliminating exccessive compensation as a condition for receiving any bailout money. When I wrote, I even suggested that excessive compensation adjustment be 5 years retroactive. What we are whitnessing is not capitalism but simply rape and pillege of the average American taxpayer!
    2008 Sep 20 06:48 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    The Gov. has been making money at a rapid pace since 2001 when the World Trade Center were bombed. They have created debt of 1.3 trillion with the war, Fannie, Freddie, AIG and now another 500 billion or more!! It seems to me the Gov has created another 2 trillion on top of the 10 trillion owed in just a matter of a couple years. I did not notice but if anyone did, what did the dollar do in the wake of this announcement of mass gov. intervention? All my gold mining stockes have been soaring up almost 50% in last week with only a 10% move in gold bullion. It seems that maybe the big ,smart money in the system is fleeing for the safe haven of gold and precious metals. I also see oil rising in the face of a possible depression if this mass amount of liquidity does not work( oil has also been used this year as a hedge against deflation) This market rally was a rally in confidence that these financials that have been killed by short sellers can not be short sold anymore (till the ban is lifted) not because of better fundamentals!!! I still believe the demand for gold and other precious metals is the place to be for the long term during this deflationary time. Now that all this stimuluis is being injected into the economy will be seeing inflation of a magnitude much greater than that of the 70's. It almost has to happen, considering this problem is consideribly more dramatic than that of the 70's. Also what needs to be pointed out is that oil is hovering around 95 dollars a barrel and we certainly are in a recession. What do think the price of oil will be when our economy is back to 3% or 4% growth and we spark the BRIC countries by importing at our normal pace. I will tell you let's try 200 a barrel. Everyone has turned their head away from oil because of this financial turmoil. It is poised to soar again. What will the Gov. do stop commodity trading next. I don't think so. Well there is many other places to make money other than the broad market, but I truly believe we will see gold prices spike much higher that that of the seventies as people flee for a safe haven.
    2008 Sep 20 08:44 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Spot on.
    In any case: some time ago a contributor to this introduced the book:
    Confessions of a subprime lender. An insider's tale of greed, fraud &
    ignorance ... by Richard Bitner / lendingsanity.com

    I found it very interesting, informative, useful. And it probably was
    useful for many others as well, those not taken by surprise.
    2008 Sep 20 08:51 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Socialism,
    Banks may survive,
    Save the world,
    Buy my Junk,
    Sounds like a ViX Garage Sale
    that I don't wont to go too.
    2008 Sep 20 09:05 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Socialism,
    Banks may survive,
    Save the world,
    Buy my Junk,
    Sounds like a ViX Garage Sale
    that I don't wont to go too.
    2008 Sep 20 09:06 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    What with the proposed "Resolution Trust" clone and money market fund backstopping ( not to mention the FNM and FRE rescues ), it now appears that the "bazooka" analogy has come up a bit light, in terms of "throw weight." In light of the estimated cost of "TARP" for the beleaguered taxpayer -- some half trillion dollars -- the Treasury has upgraded the deployed weapons system from the conventional bazooka to a squadron of LGM-30G Minuteman III's.

    $500 billion. Devastating throw weight indeed.
    2008 Sep 20 09:47 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    "And the Treasury is now insuring money market funds to shore up sentiment in the wake of news that the Reserve Fund — a money market portfolio — broke the buck this week, i.e., its net asset value fell below $1. The drop stoked fears that even cash equivalents might not be safe."

    "And while the government theoretically has access to unlimited amounts money to throw at problems, in practice there's a limit if only because the dollar is regularly valued vis a vis other currencies and gold. At some point, cranking up the printing presses to bail out Acme Finance is self-defeating because the marginal gains of injecting liquidity are more than offset by a slump in the purchasing power of the buck."

    Beware. The Govt. tells YOU not to panic, but panics itself.. They do not want a run on banks because they need our money in there to hold this stack of cards together.
    I have already made my run on my banks weeks ago in order to beat the inevitable crowds. I purchased the very thing that my Govt. does NOT want me to buy - Gold and Silver. They are trying to hold off the panic post election by applying bandaids to a gushing artery. Don't be fooled.
    If foreign countries bail on the dollar, by taking what they have and moving into gold, silver and oil, the dollar is dead. They hold billions of dollars of toxic debt...I imagine they might decide they would rather be holding a safer alternative.
    Doesn't it make sense to get in to Gold before your dollar won't buy any?

    2008 Sep 20 09:58 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Icandoiton - Banks won't have to raise their rates...the money markets will lower theirs. The difference was a risk premium. That risk is now gone...therefore, the premium will be gone as well.
    2008 Sep 20 10:01 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Here is a great NYT article on Russia (you may have to be registered to access... its dated 9/20... "Shaky Economy Suddenly Dims Russian Prospects") :

    www.nytimes.com/2008/0...

    One paragraph jumped off the page at me because of its incredible irony... it describes an almost 100% reversal in the economic ideology of the two great cold war superpowers.

    “Probably a period of struggle for existence and survival is coming,” said Dmitri Lutsenko, a member of the board of directors for Mr. Polonsky’s Mirax Group, which is building Europe’s tallest skyscraper beside the Moscow River. “The strong businesses will become stronger, and the weak ones will be wiped out of the market,” he said.

    Absolutely mind boggling.

    Mr. Lutensko speaks of the quintessential capitalist market theory, what I call financial darwinism, where the strong, growing, innovative shall attract the capital - and our Republikaan business and political leaders evoke the image of a socialist nightmare, where the weak and broken are temporarily propped up and force fed hundreds of billions of dollars of scarce capital that will now not be allocated to the growth of a strong economy. In America, the weak and dying are bailed out, and the strong are starved out.

    News just hit... Dumbya looking for $700 BILLION now for the bailout. Democrats and Repugnants alike should be ASHAMED at what they are creating, absolutely ASHAMED.

    2008 Sep 20 10:49 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Here's the news... the bailout is now $700 Billion and that increases our national debt to threshold to $11.3 TRILLION

    news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20...
    2008 Sep 20 10:56 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Bush Finally Admits To Taxes Increases!


    Americans, Get Ready for an Enormous Tax Bill
    Posted Sep 19, 2008 01:36pm EDT by Aaron Task in Investing, Newsmakers, Recession, Banking
    Related: JPM, AIG, XLF, ^DJI, ^GSPC, BAC, C
    "America's economy is facing unprecedented challenges. We're responding with unprecedented measures," President Bush declared in a press conference Friday.
    Bush, of course, was speaking of the government's coordinated efforts to tackle a financial crisis that has roiled global markets and brought down venerable financial institutions.
    "These measures will require us to put a significant amount of taxpayer dollars on the line," the President added.
    Ah, yes. There is no free lunch. Just how significant an amount of taxpayer dollars remains unknown, but it's going to be massive.
    Estimates of the proposal to let the government buy bad assets from banks range from $500 billion to $1 trillion -- and that's in addition to costs already incurred for various government actions this year, including, but not limited to:
    • $29 billion to fund JPMorgan's takeover of Bear Stearns
    • Up to $200 billion each for nationalization of Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac
    • Up to $85 billion for AIG
    • $50 billion to insure money market funds
    • Approximately $300 billion of Fed liquidity measures this week alone.
    "It's impossible to put any reasonable estimate on what it's going to cost us as taxpayers," says Tom Brown of Bankstocks.com and Second Curve Capital. "We know it's going to cost an awful lot [and] the more they borrow the more interest rates go up and the more taxes we'll have to pay."
    2008 Sep 20 11:19 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Well there you go. Now can we just lose the political argument that we are taxed less under a Republican president? I think that this financial fiasco has shown everybody who has benefited and who got the shaft. Somehow, yet again, a few very rich and powerful evil-doers made off with the money and left the bill on the table for the rest of us.
    Just remember this on election day, and vote all the filth out regardless of party. Try and vote like you give a darn for your fellow man. Most of the greedy b**stards in power don't give a hoot about you or me or your aging parents...they vote knowing they can sleep peacefully in one of their 7 houses.
    2008 Sep 20 11:29 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    With the Administration using huge taxpayer money to bail out the big banks, did we just see the Repubs commit political suicide?

    They are a politically savvy bunch, so they must have seen something far worse just around the corner, something like a near 100% probability that there would be a run on the banks next week.

    Now that would have been just as, or more, expensive than the bailout, and even worse (much worse), the expense would be immediate and not spread out over several years.

    So in my mind the Bush bailout was inevitable, the lesser evil (but not by much) of two bad options. Therefore I'm not sure it signals a new American Socialism, just a continuation of business-as-usual.

    I'm not convinced of the 'short the dollar' theory, which presumes that foreign currencies are healthier than the $$ right now. I doubt it.
    2008 Sep 20 11:30 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    There may still be a run on banks next week... The sentiment of the average Joe will determine whether that happens or not. Basically, when you no longer have faith in your government you pull money out of the bank. They say our deposits are safe - which means that they will print the necessary currency to cover the deposits. That just means that the dollar is being devalued...you can buy less with that dollar.
    The alternative is to take your cash and buy Gold and Silver which is exactly what Washington doesn't want you to do... which is exactly why you should be doing it.
    2008 Sep 20 12:41 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    What if this weekend, the government cannot solve the unsolvable? What if they can only contain and limit the free-market effects of this deleveraging? While TV financial personalities tell people to "ride it out", "don't panic", "don't try to time the market" etc., what they really are telling people is to "not think". Why do officials keep telling everyone, "not to panic"? Do I look panicked? Should they not be saying, "prepare for a worse-case scenario"?

    Think about the people that re-entered their WTC building, not affected by the first plane, after exiting the building and being told by "authorities" to go back inside.

    Think about the recent Hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico. Did officials say, "don't panic and leave the area"? No, they said, "better safe than sorry, leave the area immediately".

    Why then are these same government officials and TV pundits telling me to not worry about it?

    Disclosure: Bought SDS on Friday's dip. Portfolio loaded with silver. Retirement in US Treasuries since last July. Currently constructing a bubble-wrap suit to place over my kevlar vest.
    2008 Sep 20 12:56 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    BTW, panic is not a system-preservation instinct. It's a self-preservation instinct. Let the talking heads on the Titanic rationalize. I'm already in the boat.
    2008 Sep 20 01:05 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    BxCapricorn,
    You got it. When every single person is telling you "don't panic" you better be in self-preservation mode. For months they have been telling investors not to sell their stocks and look how much people have lost! When they tell you something, do the opposite.
    2008 Sep 20 01:24 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Kelly, I have a hard time recommending to anyone a large position in gold or silver when they are so close to their recent highs. Look at these charts:

    Gold: futures.tradingcharts....

    Silver: futures.tradingcharts....

    That would be reckless anytime, but esp. in the current marget. I think there are better short term investments in things that have real intrinsic value.

    I also think having some, maybe significant, cash reserve (not in a bank) is prudent. It was interesting to note that the money market funds now cannot maintain par ($1/share) value. I was wondering when they would release that bit of news.

    Looking at the 10-year IWM chart and current PEs, I believe stocks have further to fall.

    They are down for the week, and cash is still king.
    2008 Sep 20 01:28 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Cool Heads will yet survive this crazy economy. Lets see..gold...silver...o... or what else. I'll tell you a scheme that worked like crazy during the last Depression and guaranteed to make you a future success for life. Grab all your assets and keep them liquid and GO TO SCHOOL and improve your professional abilities. When the economy comes back you will be in great shape to take advantage of the opportunities. Forget about everything but survival and schooling and you will be just fine. Remember the holy dollar was never worth anything anyway...ITS WHAT YOU GOT STORED IN YOUR HEAD THAT COUNTS. Marvin Friedman
    2008 Sep 20 01:28 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    GOLD and SILVER are going to new highs! This bull market has years to run. It has dwarfed the dow since 2001 and will continue to do so until gold and the dow have a one to one ratio...e.g. dow 5000 - gold 5000!
    2008 Sep 20 01:42 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Then the answer is to buy education funds. EDU anyone?
    2008 Sep 20 01:47 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Curious wording....

    "Sec. 6. Maximum Amount of Authorized Purchases.

    The Secretary's authority to purchase mortgage-related assets under this Act shall be limited to $700,000,000,000 outstanding at any one time"

    At one time....why is the media suggesting it's $700B, maximum, when the actual wording is thus? This leads us to my Potato Chip Theory....
    2008 Sep 20 02:15 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    BTW, this is a global economy now. Do you honestly believe that the rest-of-the-world isn't going to gravitate towards certain items that have had universal financial appeal, throughout world history? Yes. I'm talking about powdered wigs.
    2008 Sep 20 02:18 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Act shall be limited to $700,000,000,000 outstanding at any one time"

    This is the way they will print the money. Once the bank gets rid of the toxic stuff it will again extend credit to anyone. This in turn will create more toxic crap that will move again to the tax payer repeat to infinity. I don't know about gold since I have the feeling that they will try to manipulate it. I think long oil and shorting US debt has a better chance on not being so easy to manipulate.
    2008 Sep 20 02:53 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    jcrash....yes, good point, and i agree that the risk premium on money market funds will disappear. but the problem for banks remain because they've now got enormous competition for insured deposits.

    a believer,kelly lieberman and bx capricorn...yes there would have been a massive run on banks and investment houses for all funds, and gold would have gone ballistic. the treasury knew it, as did the fed, and that's why they acted. i have never seriously considered precious metals but it's time to reassess my view on that. what equity investments i do have i've hedged with puts. unhedged, long puts on the SPX and XLF or long SDS/SKF might be a better option. we're in exceedingly dark waters and this bailout plan is no panacea. as someone once said "it's the economy, stupid."
    2008 Sep 20 02:56 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    4263mike, outrage? No way, baby. Don't get mad; get short. Short the dollar, short bonds (anyone else make a killing shorting the long bond at 4%?), short almost anything that suffers with issuance. Be sure you've got a nice pile of gold somewhere outside the US so you can get out when the capital controls come. Until then, save your outrage and focus your energies on profit.

    I've been saying it for months now: you want to own gold, and you want to be short Treasuries. There's still plenty of time to get in on this trade.
    2008 Sep 20 02:59 PM | Link | Reply
  •  

    Can't believe what the inflation hawks are saying: that it will go out of control, with no rebuttals. Uh-uh. When inflation went to double digits in the late 70s early 80s, what did the government do? They froze prices and wages, but wages for the masses have already been 'frozen' without government fiat so that part of the equation was taken care of years ago; the broad stock market, thousands of mutual funds, and houses too have gone nowhere in the last 3-10 years) All that remains is to freeze prices and bingo and Voila. What consumer, after being date-raped these last 10 years, by congress interfering in market forces for the sole gain of the privileged few at the top, is going to rail against that when their incomes, retirement and savings and jobs have already been ravaged? Even though freezing did not work, who's willing to bet that in desperate times, which appear to be closing in on us, that they won't say 'it will be different this time'? And more importantly what could possibly happen, what "WHITE SWAN" event could possibly occur that would begin a reversal of this decade long reversal? My imagination cannot manufacture even the slightest positive event that magically or even slowly turn the tide to just hold steady where we are or send up skyward. Anyone? I think the whole thing can be encapsulated in the commercial with Bill Gates and Jerry Seinfeld acting about as stupidly as humanly possible in front of billions of their fellow men epitomizes just some very smart people can create a monumental turkey.

    Do you seriously think that they would permit gold to be owned by ordinary individuals at a point of international financial disaster? ALL negotiable assets must be 'fixed' in price including the precious metals until such time as calm is restored. And this time with everyone connected to everyone else, the use of the worldwide web to effect immediate panic decisions at the click of a mouse, based on cold-boned fear, what's to stop the G7 or G12 from going along with it. Or else take advantage of the descent of the United States into 2nd world status with permanent high unemployment, low-to-no growth, or even a decline, or reversal. A world without the voracious consumption of the US citizen and its 'government' would throw the rest of the world into its own decline. Which country who sells to us wouldn't try to prevent that? We stop buying fleeced nummies out of China and Dells out of Indonesia then what do they do with the preparations they have been making, enticing the dirt poor into the cities by the tens of millions who would now have nothing, not even the piece of rice paddy they worked/owned earlier?

    The 'government' can do what it wants, no matter how well-meaning or utterly boneheaded. To stand aside and let the markets work means the worst-case scenario: the already poor shooting at themselves and the rest of the world would sense the blood in the water and anarchy begins. Ive been skeptical about the very very few who now own kevlar vests and bubble wrap suits who have seen Armageddon around the bend. But I also once read that a famous music critic thought that the Beatles would last 6 months.

    Paulson and Bernanke showed Christopher Dodd and Barney Frank something frightening alright. And you can bet your last Euro it was a blueprint for blood in the streets at a minimum. I'd bet they showed them pictures of government honchos, pictures of their own financial and/or physical demise. Or this is all just a fear-mongering hoax to garner election advantages. I'm betting it's real.

    I'm buffing up my WIN button as we 'speak'.
    2008 Sep 20 03:09 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Stop the insanity!
    www.youtube.com/watch?...
    2008 Sep 20 03:34 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    First, James thank you for a terrific article!

    Reading the posts here, I can take solace that there are among you a bevy of thinkers that if given a chance could repair this devastated country.

    Unfortunately, you have no chance! Therefore, you must save yourselves! That's what we all need to think about--SELF PRESERVATION! For you see, nothing else matters. And, should you be astute enough to have gold and silver in your "pocket", then you WILL be all right in the coming times. If not, you will perish to be sure.

    The problem which is now at hand is AVAILABILITY of gold and silver. Every day that passes, lessens its availability. Those who believe that the gold/silver mines are "pouring out tons" of product daily are doomed to perish.

    Have a great life!
    2008 Sep 20 03:50 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    9/19/08

    Leading % Gainers

    Freddie Mac 6.42% Non Cumulative Perpetual Pref Shs (FRE-T) +744.95%

    Freddie Mac 6.02% Non-Cumulative Perpetual Pref Shs (FRE-X) +300.00%

    Freddie Mac Variable Rate Non Cumulative Pref Shs (FRE-M) +228.57%
    2008 Sep 20 04:49 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Golds price is relative to the current state of insanity. In this case, it's price seems low. Recent highs only relate to what was going on in the world during that time. We were a few days away from a GLOBAL financial meltdown.
    Will the Congress put together a plan that will save the US economy along with the world??? I have to say that I bet they can't do it. Look at their record... look at the fools who got us here... they are the same ones we are hoping will figure it all out.
    Just for the record, do not put 100% of your assets in any one investment. If you pull money out of the bank, buy some gold and silver(if you can find it!), purchase food, toiletries, medicine, etc that you know you will use in the next 6-12 months anyway. Buy at todays prices. Buy the tires for your car now, buy a used bike or two etc.. Prepare!!! Look at all the people totally caught off guard with the hurricane. You have some warning here..do what you can.
    2008 Sep 20 05:01 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    I would like to remind those who blame this all on Bush. To wit, I would just as soon see that idiot Bush croak as live another day for being the puppet of his neo-con and other shadow contributors who have been amassing even more fortunes over the last 6 months before they exit, stage left sticking us with the check that we will never pay off in most our lifetimes.

    But it was Bill Clinton who did not veto (the although veto-proof) repeal of Glass-Steagall. G-S repeal was proposed by Gramm, Bliley and Leach, passed the senate by 90 votes, including 44 democrats.

    Make it political if you want, but the truth betrays how many on both sides, nearly unanimously, caused this horrendous debacle. I wonder who those brave few were who voted, "NAY"!

    Believing that things would have been much different under a democrat are foolish. For the last ten years you can point to those who sponsored and passed the repeal of Glass-Steagall, then the SEC for allowing only 5 investments banks (three of which are now no longer entirely in the hands of the public) to leverage up 40 or more to 1 (who knows how much more, really) with Christopher Cox in charge, and the Community Reinvestment act are the main rapists and in that order.

    2008 Sep 20 05:01 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    We knew money markets were NOT insured, and played by the rules, switching to Treasury Reserve- only funds, you should lose your 1-5% unless the bank pays new insurance! Tonight it's reported Paulson wants sole say in which loans are bought, accountable to nobody else.
    As for restructuring mortgages (once you find them) 60% OF SUBPRIME BORROWERS NEVER MADE THEIR (low-teaser) FIRST PAYMENT!
    What makes you think Paulson won't buy these back at 60%, Then, he sells them to Goldman Sachs @ 33%, that is his plan. He still runs GS, they will transfer this wealth.
    This is classic pillaging under the guise of PANIC; CRISIS! It's the continued POWER GRAB, can't you all see that? Call on officials to put the breaks on, we want DISCLOSURE!
    2008 Sep 20 07:59 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Does anybody else have problem with this section of the "bail-out" plan?

    Sec. 8. Review.

    Decisions by the Secretary pursuant to the authority of this Act are non-reviewable and committed to agency discretion, and may not be reviewed by any court of law or any administrative agency.

    So, let me get this straight... The Secretary of the Treasury will get almost $1trillion, but nobody has the right to question or review his decision in a court of law. If Congress passes this section of the plan I'm sure Adolf Hitler would have been proud Bush, Barney Frank and Palosi. They hijacked our democracy with the Patriot Act, now they are hijacking our economy... The newest career in the United States will be working on the "collective farm"... We are back in the USSR!
    2008 Sep 20 08:16 PM | Link | Reply
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    here's the provisions of the bill, with the ALL-EXECUTIVE PAULSON POWER-GRAB! told ya,
    dailykos.com/storyonly...
    2008 Sep 20 08:17 PM | Link | Reply
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    Paul Krugman says EXACTLY WHAT I TOLD YOU, paying premium prices at Paulson's SOLE DESCRETION.:


    UPDATE (4): Paul Krugman says No Deal. Writing in part about this bail out:

    I hate to say this, but looking at the plan as leaked, I have to say no deal. Not unless Treasury explains, very clearly, why this is supposed to work, other than through having taxpayers pay premium prices for lousy assets.

    As I posted earlier today, it seems all too likely that a “fair price” for mortgage-related assets will still leave much of the financial sector in trouble. And there’s nothing at all in the draft that says what happens next; although I do notice that there’s nothing in the plan requiring Treasury to pay a fair market price. So is the plan to pay premium prices to the most troubled institutions? Or is the hope that restoring liquidity will magically make the problem go away?
    2008 Sep 20 08:32 PM | Link | Reply
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    gordon, work? They think this will work? Last week the world didn't have confidence in Wall Street. Next week there will be no confidence in our country! Who will bail us out? Bush? Frank and Palosi? God help us!
    2008 Sep 20 08:42 PM | Link | Reply
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    Oh! Chris Dodd is not interested in the opinions of Americans outside Connecticut. Let's hope he works for ALL AMERICANS and votes NO on the bail-out plan!

    dodd.senate.gov/index....

    What a dope!
    2008 Sep 20 08:51 PM | Link | Reply
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    US$700bn bailout will mean

    US taxes will double, Dollar falls, the consumer will die, economy will be in depression.
    2008 Sep 20 11:50 PM | Link | Reply
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    but i guess thats far better than the so called worse alternative..

    letting wall st fat cats at goldman sachs and morgan lose their jobs and bonuses...
    2008 Sep 20 11:59 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    The New Bill (as yet unnamed).
    This is a bill – not yet passed – but if it passes, it will become law. Keep this fact in mind. The bill is sold to us as one designed to help the American taxpayer who is losing their home. But, that is not what it does.

    Now, read this part of the “bill:”
    “Sec. 8. Review: Decisions by the Secretary pursuant to the authority of this Act are non-reviewable and committed to agency discretion, and may not be reviewed by any court of law or any administrative agency.”

    >>>>
    Take a moment to re-read that. This new LAW would place the Secretary of the Treasury ABOVE THE LAW.
    >>>>


    So, this bill is being sold to us, the taxpayer, as a design to protect the American public. Ask yourself, if this new law is so helpful to the American taxpayer, why are we not allowed to review the decisions he is making with OUR tax-money? Why aren’t courts or oversight committees allowed to see what exactly it is he will be doing?

    Here is what the bill doesn’t do. So far, it doesn’t include anything to actually help those whose homes are in foreclosure, or about to be in foreclosure.
    Now, this is what it DOES do:
    1) Creates a NEW TAXPAYER FUNDED account, called the “RTC.”
    2) In this account, trillions in bad debt is funneled from companies who failed due to irresponsibly risky decisions
    3) In this account, billions in loans dumped related to STRESSED COMMERCIAL real estate
    4) In this account, financial institutions will compete for how little they will accept for their bad debts
    5) With this law, the secretary will decide how much of your money he will pay for bad loans, regardless of the true market value.

    To make this crystal clear: this account will be used to take YOUR money and then with that money (taken from you), PURCHASE the very liabilities that Wall Street can’t sell to any other business or country. And why can’t they sell them? It's simple: they are worthless!

    We are told that this bill is the lesser of two evils. So, if this is the lesser, what is the greater? The greater “evil” is allowing free markets to work as designed!

    In a free market, these companies would fail. They made risky bets that blew-up, and now they are weak. From the ashes, new stronger companies would emerge to fill the void. Yes, it would hurt for a while – but that is the nature of a free-market. This bill spits in the face of the very foundation on which our great country was built. It is designed to bail-out bankrupt institutions that ruined the fiscal health of the country!

    Furthermore, after these people – among the richest in the world – get our money, will they pay any additional personal tax to offset the massive burden they are placing on the system? Once again, the "lower classes" will be lining the pockets of the uber class.

    What is maddening about this situation is that the U.S.A already had rules and regulations in place – rules created because of the Great Depression – to prevent this from happening again. So why is this happening again?

    It’s simple really: it’s because the people you elected turned a blind eye and chose not to enforce the law while everyone was making a killing. As a good example of this, you may have heard recently in the news, is how the SEC is “banning illegal naked short selling” in the market place. Well, here’s a news flash – Naked Short Selling has always been ILLEGAL. Why are you placing a ban on something you are supposed to ARREST people for?

    Clearly, these people are not representing your interests. I know, I know, I can practically hear you now, “Since when do they represent my interests?”

    That’s right. Since when.

    They weren’t thinking about you when they collected $100s of millions from lobbyists.
    They weren’t thinking about you while Wall Street speculated with the money you placed in their bank accounts and spun it into trillions.
    They weren’t thinking about you when they paid JP Morgan $30 billion (of your money) to buy Bear Sterns, or another $85 billion (of YOUR money) to AIG
    They weren’t thinking about you when, all this time, they told you that this problem was contained.

    And so, I ask you today – what makes you think that they are thinking about you now?

    How does that make you feel?

    1) This new Law places Secretary Paulsen above the law; “Decisions… non-reviewable … agency discretion …may NOT be reviewed by ANY COURT OF LAW OR ANY ADMINISTRATIVE AGENCY”
    2) Wall Street, where “Greed is Good”, is getting YOUR money, to ensure they keep their 5 mansions, private jets, multi-million dollar yacht, and bonuses: (Goldman Sachs, alone, paid bonuses of 18 billion in 2007 and 16 billion in 2006)
    3) The U.S.A – the BASTION of “free market” capitalism – is utterly preventing, in any way it can, to allow the free market to actually WORK. If you think America is a free-market economy, stop that false belief right now. Even SOCIALIST GOVERNMENTS would not embark down this path of socialist “financialism” (www.upi.com/Business_N.......

    So, what can we do at this point?

    First: Forward this email. No matter how embarrassed or worried you might feel about it, forward it to other red-blooded Americans so they can at least be AWARE this is happening. If they get irritated with you, they are choosing to live in ignorance.

    Second: Call your representatives. They are the people who are supposed to do YOUR bidding. Call them, make them justify this new Law. Don't believe them if they tell you, "this is the best we can do."
    This law is not good for you, it will not prevent a crash, it will not cause home value to suddenly turn around. It will cause a short term rally in the stock market, it will allow rich bankers to off-load bad debts, and it will allow Wall Street to recover catastrophic stock losses while the big money sells into the rally (while they work hard to convince you to leave your 401K invested).

    I can assure you this: if this law passes, America will fundamentally turn its back on the very premise on which our country was founded: Free-Market Capitalism.

    The markets will correct themselves regardless of any action the government attempts to make. It is unavoidable. Nothing goes "up" forever, and we all recognize this.

    "When the going gets tough, the tough get going."

    Well, apparently not in America. In the U.S.A, when the going gets tough, the tough get handouts. For anyone who has money.

    Ever wonder why congress and our government makes these panic changes over weekends? Well, I'm not sure about you, but I'm not usually watching the markets or the news right now. I'm usually outside playing with my son or enjoying time with my friends and neighbors. Tomorrow I'll be watching the game. Frankly, I'd rather be at my neighbor's BBQ than sitting here writing this. But this time, there is something more important to do.

    Below I've pasted all the names and numbers for every member of the house and senate for your convenience. You can email them, but they appear to be completely ignoring email at present.

    BTW, if they refuse to take your calls, make note of it and let me know. This is expressly illegal given the call they answered to represent your interests in the government of the United States of America.

    Please consider forwarding this email so that others have an opportunity to take action if they choose to.

    God Bless America,
    2008 Sep 21 12:12 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    I think you got it wrong. The gamble is this (similar to Japan which lost and had a 20+ year hangover), take some bad mortgage of the banks hands to hide them under the government's belt so banks can live. Then banks don't have to recognize the other rotting bad mortgages which they continue to mark up with fake value and crimp the money supply so the economy slowly bleeds for years to come. Any profit they make will go to pay off their hidden debt meaning no real growth. This is good for the banking system but bad for the economy. It has nothing to do with getting rid of the loss, only hiding it and nothing to do with taxpayers paying it. The real cost is about 8 trillion dollars over 10 years. The main difference is that Japan could afford hiding debt and lowering interest to 0. The US can't because they have such a giant national debt and no one will hold US bonds overseas at 0% interest. Just ask the Japanese who is the borrowing capital of the world because you dump yen and then travel elsewhere to get higher yields. I feel sorry for citizen's except for the fact that we did vote for a warmongering president with an incompetent cabinet when we least could afford it.

    So the US gets a lingering recession plus inflation. Stagflation at worst or an IFM mandated austerity program (tax the US 50% income taxes and forced balanced budgets). Welcome to Argentina with 3 Eva Perone's (Bush, Bernake, Paulson).

    BTW Ben Bernake has always been called "Helecopter Ben" because he believes if the fed wanted to they could just print free money and dump it out helecopters. Sadly he is dumping it over the banks and nowhere else.

    Face it, all situations are bad. The worst ones hurt the least now and last the longest and the best ones hurt the most now but last the shortest time. I know the US always picks the first.
    2008 Sep 21 12:27 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Who says they crank up the printing presses? They just sell t-bills and soak up the cash that's out there. Then they buy at 20 cents on the dollar at fire sale prices.and sit on it for years and get back 60 cents on the dollar. .................. The reason the private companys have to sell is because they have to mark to market instead of what they would get if they kept it for years. It's an accounting problem.
    So the government takes up 700 billion dollars of private industry. What kind of free market is that?
    2008 Sep 21 01:12 AM | Link | Reply
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    I haven't read all the comments but the ones' I did read where just complaining about the status que. We still live in the greatest nation on earth and probably always will because of the respect we show one another and our constitution allows this. If some one had foreseen this and taken action to stop it, alas I wouldn't be writing this. What I really want to say is quit complaining and blaming, congress hasn't done any thing at all since Newt Gingrich left so what do you expect. Now let's count our blessings, figure out the best remedy, and go to work on it. NOW from a working man. jackie ray
    2008 Sep 21 02:12 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Bernanke's Big Rock Candy Mountains

    (to the melody of Big Rock Candy Mountain)
    Lyrics By WilliamBanzai7


    One evening as the DOW went down and the ABX was burning
    Down the track came a banker hiking and he said boys I'm not turning
    I'm headin for a land that's far away from Wall Street's crystal towers
    So come with me we'll go and see the Bernanke's Big Rock Candy Mountains

    In Bernanke's Big Rock Candy Mountains there's a land that's fair and bright
    Where the handouts grow from the Bush bailout plan and you sleep sound every night
    Where the ABS books are all empty and the sun shines every day
    On the birds and the bees and the bonus trees
    Where the perrier springs where the squawk box sings
    In the Bernanke's Big Rock Candy Mountains

    In Bernanke's Big Rock Candy Mountains all the regulators have wooden legs
    And the shorts all have rubber teeth and the investors lay golden eggs
    The traders books are full of fruit and the bankers play all day
    Oh, I'm bound to go where there ain't no snow
    Where the rain don't fall and the wind don't blow
    In Bernanke's Big Rock Candy Mountains

    In Bernanke's Big Rock Candy Mountains you never sell your stocks
    And the little streams of Interest come a-trickling down the rocks
    The enforcers have to tip their hats and the bears and shorts are banned
    There's a lake of stew and of champagne too
    You can sail all around 'em in your custom yachts
    In Bernankies Big Rock Candy Mountains

    In the Bernanke's Rock Candy Mountains white collar jails are made of tin
    And you can walk right out again as soon as you are in
    There ain't no short handled shovels, no axes saws or picks
    I'm a goin to stay where you sleep all day
    Where they hung that jerk from Berkshire Hathaway
    In Bernanke's Big Rock Candy Mountains

    I'll see you all this coming fall in Bernanke's Big Rock Candy Mountains
    2008 Sep 21 02:19 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    To Money Market Holiday, you didn't mention that Bill Clinton was the one that signed into law the bill that allowed banks to start selling their debts to brokerage houses in the 90's. I don't remember exactly when but that was the barrier that was preventing this from happening.
    2008 Sep 21 02:25 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Gordon,
    You have a good point, I should have read o before I started griping about Bush haters. I believe your'e right abot the oversight of the bill, but Bush isn't the one that caused this mess. It sure blew in and bit him on the butt though.
    2008 Sep 21 02:43 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    I still don't get it - everybody is talking about using taxpayers money. But US gets already less taxes than are they spending - the missing money is created by issuing treasury bills, notes & bonds. I have not heard about rising economic activities or rising tax rates in US. So what realy means the words using taxpayers money is issuing treasury papers (borrowing more from China, Japan, Russia, Gulf states, etc) for someone who wants the stuff. Or is just print the money.
    2008 Sep 21 03:00 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    There is no such thing as FREE MARKETS. This is a highly regulated industry. Take it or leave it.
    2008 Sep 21 03:09 AM | Link | Reply
  •  

    All that money saved by buying things made outside the United States all these years has accomplished nothing, merely destroyed the growth of the United States.

    Next time you go to Wal-mart (whose stock and options haven't done too badly the last year) or Costco, or anything made outside the United States remember that you are going to pay in taxes some serious multiple of your savings to the Chinese to hold up their purchase of Fannie and Freddie as well as the mortgage furball. Every dime you spend there will cost you likely twice as much.
    2008 Sep 21 06:46 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Mr Welder: Please get your facts straight. The Gramm Leach Bliley act was passed by a Republican Senate and was Veto Proof (as in Clinton could not block the bill). Also note Phil Gram as the architect who was McCain's economic advisor and now holds an unknown position of authority in the campaign still. He also passed a wonderful little bill that allowed the Enron scandal too. What a charming guy. Every bill he passes helps destroy our economy and shift bankrupt companies onto the federal government to pay. I suppose he is a socialist even though he says he's Republican. Facts below are thanks to Wikipedia:

    Gramm was one of five co-sponsors of the Commodity Futures Modernization Act of 2000[3]. One provision of the bill was referred to as the "Enron loophole" because the House Agriculture Committee drafted it and it was later applied to Enron. Some critics blame the provision for permitting the Enron scandal to occur.[4] At the time, Gramm's wife was previously on Enron's board of directors.

    Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act in 1999, which modernized Depression-era laws separating banking, insurance and brokerage activitiesThe final bill resolving the differences was passed in the Senate 90-8-1 and in the House: 362-57-15. This veto proof legislation was signed into law by President Bill Clinton on November 12, 1999.
    2008 Sep 21 06:58 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    ".....cranking up the printing presses " ?

    They're already cranked up! Pretty soon, Paulson will be printing only on one side of the bill because they won't have time to print both sides.

    Buy, buy, buy...........gold and silver!
    2008 Sep 21 07:40 AM | Link | Reply
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    This was needed to keep integrity in the system. Goldma reports good earnings and the stock drops from 140-85? Until banks feel comfortable to lend again short selling on finacials should be outlawed
    2008 Sep 21 09:23 AM | Link | Reply
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    Constructe read your own post before claiming Gramm, leach Bliley was passed by a "republican" senate. In your own post you show 44 democrats voting for it. The only ones who should be let off the hook are the 8 who voted "nay".
    2008 Sep 21 09:41 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    CORRECTION:

    The 90 Votes, "AYE", were for THE CONFERENCE REPORT, not the bill itself. The bill was indeed passed along party lines.

    U.S. Senate Roll Call Votes 106th Congress - 1st Session

    as compiled through Senate LIS by the Senate Bill Clerk under the direction of the Secretary of the Senate


    Vote Summary

    Question: On the Conference Report (S.900 Conference Report )
    Vote Number: 354 Vote Date: November 4, 1999, 03:30 PM
    Required For Majority: 1/2 Vote Result: Conference Report Agreed to
    Measure Number: S. 900
    Measure Title: An Act to enhance competition in the financial services industry by providing a prudential framework for the affiliation of banks, securities firms, and other financial service providers, and for other purposes.

    Vote Counts: YEAs 90
    NAYs 8
    Present 1
    Not Voting 1


    HOWEVER, the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act itself was passed by 54 republicans; 44 Democrats voted No.

    U.S. Senate Roll Call Votes 106th Congress - 1st Session

    as compiled through Senate LIS by the Senate Bill Clerk under the direction of the Secretary of the Senate


    Vote Summary

    Question: On Passage of the Bill (S.900 as amended )
    Vote Number: 105 Vote Date: May 6, 1999, 08:14 PM
    Required For Majority: 1/2 Vote Result: Bill Passed
    Measure Number: S. 900
    Measure Title: An Act to enhance competition in the financial services industry by providing a prudential framework for the affiliation of banks, securities firms, and other financial service providers, and for other purposes.

    Vote Counts: YEAs 54
    NAYs 44
    Present 1
    Not Voting 1



    2008 Sep 21 10:25 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    I believe this government intervention and keep market high above 12000 is all for presidential election 2008.
    2008 Sep 21 11:12 AM | Link | Reply
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    How I understand markets now:

    Ban for shorting expire on October, 2, i.e. JUST AFTER Q3 ENDS. It is quite important. Why?

    Trick is that banks are obliged to mark-to-market their assets at the end of each quarter. Revaluation difference (positive or negative) goes directly to Profit and Loss Account.

    If markets will not plunge before end of September, market growth will ensure SIGNIFICANT improvement of Q3 banking results comparing to "do nothing" situation.

    Bank reporting season is in the second half of October. If better than expected Q3 results will be published, it will again help to markets. So, by this act, they significantly decreased probability of market plunge before US presidential elections.
    2008 Sep 21 11:23 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Thanks for your details flipspiceland. Interesting to note is the Paulson bill has 3 clauses that are not financial 1) immunity from the court of law #8 (even the President doesn't have this) 2) 2#3 All financial institutions become agents of the government 3) 2 All loans and instruments may be altered or changed however Paulson deems fit with no restrictions. He essentially could put all the financial institution's loans payable to his name and walk away. I think this tops $700 billion by about $50 trillion. Of course everyone is too clueless to even notice.
    2008 Sep 22 09:37 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Six months later....I was right. We're screwed. Thanks for playing....
    Mar 01 09:09 PM | Link | Reply