Prepare to Sell Monday - Cramer's Mad Money (9/19/08) 59 comments
-
Font Size:
-
Print
- TweetThis
Stocks discussed in the in-depth session of Jim Cramer’s Mad Money TV program, Friday, September 19.
After the Rally
"The important take-away from today is not Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson or Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Christopher Cox" but that rallies are for selling, Jim Cramer told viewers. Cramer said the astonishing 779-point rally over the past two days can only mean one thing: sell. He advised viewers to spend this weekend evaluating their portfolios so that they are ready to sell their bad stocks on Monday and take profits in the winners. Cramer returned to a selling strategy he's used many times. He said to rank every stock in a portfolio from one to four.
- The stocks you'd buy right now.
- Those you'd buy on a pull-back.
- Those you'd sell into strength.
- The losers you need to sell right away.
After ranking all the stocks in your portfolio, Cramer advised selling 20% of your portfolio on Monday. He said that there should not be many stocks still ranked "one," after the huge rally the past two days.
Where to Take Profits - Wells Fargo (WFC), US Bancorp (USB), Zion's Bancorp (ZION), Target (TGT), Clorox (CLX), Apache (APA)
Cramer recommended taking profits in stocks like Wells Fargo, which he recommended on July 21 at $27 a share, but is now trading at a 52-week high of $39.50. He also recommended taking profits in US Bancorp and Zion's Bancorp. Cramer told viewers to consider selling stocks in other sectors such as natural gas, technology and retail that have been up huge since Wednesday. For example, Target is a good candidate to trim, he said. As for things to buy, Cramer said he likes Clorox should report a good quarter and be a good defensive play. Cramer recommended dumping a natural gas stock as well. Apache was up Friday despite natural gas being down. Tech stocks that seem to be struggling this quarter should probably get cut, too.
Pulling Back From the Abyss - Freddie Mac (FRE), Fannie Mae (FNM) and American International Group (AIG)
"Our financial system is built on confidence," Cramer told viewers, as he tried to explain in plain English what the federal government's recent actions really mean to the markets. Cramer said had the government not taken the actions it did, consumers next week may have found their bank's local ATM machines out of cash. He credited Paulson for single handedly preventing a run on our banking system. Until this week's actions, Cramer said the government's takeover of Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae and American International Group had done nothing to restore confidence in the markets and had managed to spend $900 billion of taxpayer's money. However, he said the government is now trying to do everything, from buyouts to trusts to regulations, to restore stability. Cramer said it took a decade to recover from the Great Depression but Paulson's actions will usher a much quicker recovery, despite the size of the current market collapse. The only downside, he said, will likely be just a few hedge fund failures. As for the pricetag of the bailout, Cramer said the government should not suffer as much as some believe. He said many of the mortgages now owned by the government hold value, and it's possible to still reward responsible borrowers while punishing the reckless. Cramer called this "coherent plan" and the best thing the U.S. government has done for the American taxpayers in a long time.
Play with Food - Ralcorp Holdings (RAH), General Mills (GIS), Treehouse Brands (THS), Kellogg (K), Supervalu (SVU), Kraft (KFT)
Despite the market's huge rally, Cramer said there are still some stocks worth buying. On that note, he recommended private label food maker Ralcorp Holdings. Cramer said the discounter, which competes against General Mills, should do well for consumers who are trading down to cheaper products during harder economic times. Ralcorp sells its cereals at about a 20% discount to Kellogg and a 36% discount to General Mills. He said Ralcorp reminded him of Treehouse Brands which he said is up $18 since he recommended it on Aug. 18, 2007 at $24 a share. Forty-nine percent of sales come from private-label food, and lately outlets like Safeway and Supervalu have been trying to increase their generics sales. That means these supermarkets are spending money to advertising and boost Ralcorp’s products. Ralcorp’s also made a move in branded foods. The company bought Post cereals – Honey Bunches of Oats, Grapenuts and Raisin Bran – from Kraft. Now branded products are about 32% of Ralcorp’s sales and the Post buyout took margins to 16% from 11%. Cramer said he liked the mix in this economy, adding that no matter how bad things get there will always be people who won’t buy private label. But he said the real catalyst for the company is the falling costs of commodities, which should flow right to the bottom line of the company. He also sees Ralcorp as a potential acquirer if consolidation in the industry occurs.
Mad Mail - Clean Energy (CLNE), Panera Bread (PNRA), Clean Energy (CLNE), Goldman Sachs (GS)
The wife of investor Boone Pickens called him regarding the large sale of Clean Energy. According to Pickens, it was her stock, not his. She plans to use the money to support an animal-rights initiative on the California ballot in November.
Goldman Sachs is not in the Sell Block although he acknowledges the negative pressure the firm, and the stock, is under. I didn’t sell. Remember, in the piece I said, “I don’t believe the market in this.” But the market’s telling me to sell Goldman. I’m not listening.”
Seeking Alpha publishes a summary of Jim Cramer's stock picks every day including: Mad Money Recap, Lightning Round and Stop Trading!
Get Cramer's Picks by e-mail -- it's free and takes only a few seconds to sign up.
Seeking Alpha is not affiliated with Jim Cramer, CNBC or TheStreet.com
Related Articles
|
Find People on SA
-
The Seeking Alpha 100
See allThe top 100 stock
market authors
selected for publication
Seeking Alpha 100 » -
Fastest Climbers
Authors with the largestSee all
increase in followers
in the last 7 days
Fastest Climbers » -
Top Commenters
Top commenters,See all
as ranked by their peers
Top Commenters » -
Top Instabloggers
The 100 most activeSee all
Instabloggers.
Top Instabloggers » -
Top StockTalkers
TopSee all
StockTalkers.
Top StockTalkers »
This article has 59 comments:
let we take look backward what did Cramer say about the Bear on march...
www.youtube.com/watch?...
huh.....and I wonder why the CNBC still keep him..
You might win something if you are lucky.
Wall Street and Banks are in a systemic, planned collapse. There may be some manufactured 'sucker blips' to instill false confidence, but there are no fundamentals existing to prevent a total wipeout.
Though precious metal prices have been manipulated ad nauseum, tangible assets are the only safe-haven.
He is entertainment and nothing more. If you did what he did you may well end up out of $$ and out of all your hold positions.
I am sick and tired of doing my due dilegence and still not being able to accurately assess what the heck is going on in the markets--We, the average people are being USED as pawns and I thank Cramer for making some noise and pointng out who needs to be held accountable! #1-we need to be accountable for ourselves-If you think the hedge funds, brokers and ceo's are looking out for us peon investors--get a clue! #2 The higher powers that be, in the stock market, financial industry, etc., need to be monitored--with power comes the ability to manipulate these markets--which is exactly what is being done--this is a great opportunity for foreign governments to step when during our crisis and gain control, financially, of the Unites State. Is it so far fetched to believe that not only did 911 occur, but that 7 yrs later, in September, FNM, Shearson Leaman and the financial institutions are in complete dissarray-we even sold record amounts of gold to these foreign countries when our gold prices where at their lowest!!! People do not panic--which is why I believe Cramer is trying to give credit to feds for doing what they can but be very careful!
However I am bearish on markets - after these market manipulating moves by the govt. - I have lost all confidence in the markets. Will sell out all my remanining positions - long/short - get into gold, CDs, Mmkts.
Buy some before the our dollar is so devalued that it won't be worth anything. Buy some before all the other countries in the world start to wonder what the heck is happening here and decide to unload their risk factor and replace it with something that holds value
When a broke country that just spent over a trillion dollars in commitments over a 2 month period runs printing presses 24/7 to bail themselves out - you know that the mother of all crisis is coming.
It would be crazy to follow him blindly and he repeatedly warns viewers not to do that. He doesn't seem to have any problem saying "I was wrong."
I am starting to suspect that the people that hate him watch him more than his fans do (like Howard Stern).
Cramer is colorful, smart and very perceptive. I usualy agree with him but I think he wrong on his call for Monday to sell. There is great deal of value out there where good fundamentals are in place. Remember think befoe you follow the crowd.
It's a cute mental image and you're not the only one that says it, but please refrain from using images of "printing money" to forward your thesis of inflation, or whatever other point you're trying to make.
Only idiots still think that most money is printed. Nearly all currency is now electronic. Yes, the Fed can/has been "making" money, but printed is an annoying, outdated term. We live in the year 2008... act like it.
I think he is prepare to buy in on Monday...
so, that's why he try to tell us sold on Monday.... haa.
That part of the USA I still do not understand: Why are celebrities so important? May be they play some role like the knights and dukes did in Europe centuries ago; they had the power and in the USA the people 'famous for being famous' have a lot of power in the sense they get air time every time they burp some silly stuff.
Like Barry Ritholtz lately pointed out: Cramer is part of the entertainment industry and not part of serious financial analysis.
he can simply give a portfolio....for people to follow....if he wants he can charge money.
he can give daily sell and buy calls. at a particular price tag.
but i am sure he does not do such a thing....to easy to prove he is as worthless as any fund manager....
hard to make money in a bear market......and even a chimp can pick stocks in a bull market.
if cramer already has a set portfolio....can some one give me a link...google search is not returning anything specific.
i know that cramer owns EMC for his trust.....its only down 50% YTD.
i also know he recommended RIMM at 119, its only down 15%.
the owner of ABC ?
We should demand one channel to be owned by a non-bias organization that people can trust.
On one side we have Treasury ,FED ,Congress and the Administration .On the orher side we have Mr.Cramer and members of the CNBC crew.
I can only recall Mr.Cramer recommending Taser(Stock) at close to one hundred dollars.
CNBC? disseminated mostly inaccurate details about the current "stabilization" program untill the key details were finally announced.
When the "smoke" finally clears,I believe the Treasury and the "allies" will prevail.
Perhaps a greater global cooperation amongst the monetary authorities will become more pronounced next week.
One more time,rating agencies should sit back a bit untill we can evaluate the stabilization plan and its impact on the corporate universe and economy.
There is an opportunity to turn the chaos into an orderly recovery/boom.
Like every one ,Jim Cramer was wrong and right on his previous calls.
Mental note to self: don't take Goldman Sachs seriously.
The day that some talking head on TV tells us what to buy / sell and "is right all the time" is the day that all us "amateur" investors are retiring on an island in Fiji. If that was the case we'd all be hitting lights out. Even the best are wrong every now and then.
Like people mentioned before, you can't take his advice blindly...do your own research...read a little...develop a thesis.
Yes he has lost money. And yes he does have a portfolio which he sells and buys and and gives good explaination on why he likes the stock. I have read the book about his confessions.. what a wack! But that was what he did... so what. He was passionate and crazy about it. Do you have any passions you are crazy about? I have some. Everybody has at least one.
He made and lost a shitload of cash being totally wacked out so who better to learn from.. somebody who has been there and done that many times over. I take him with a grain of salt and then do a ton of homework. At the very least it has taught me to go and do my own research. I do not even mind listening to the qtrly reports from companies...sometimes. Especially if I want to invest in that company. I have lost money but who hasn't in this volatile market? For somebody who seems to be hated as much as he is.. or maybe disliked.. he sure is living rent free in many heads.He this or he that.. he must be doing something whether right or wrong because he sure gets the attention. I am sure he floats through these blogs and laughs. He is cynical, arrogant and self loathing. But he is Cramer love him or hate him, he is there and he is in your head. If he wasn't folks would not be constantly chatting him up. I do not love him nor do I hate him.. but I learn from him. I pick what I will retain, the rest I toss. Pnels hit it spot on.. do your homework and make your own decisions. You gonna miss a few good trades but that is the market. Make it up elsewhere.
good luck
Anyways, this is what brought me out of my apathy, getting turned on to an amazing man fighting for us, Karl Denninger who put up this 10 min video that lays out what happened to our financial system from banks down to us these past 5 yrs in a comprehensive, logical manner;
www.youtube.com/watch?...
Here is the SOLUTION he posted today, September 21, 2008. Very important - Watch this:
www.youtube.com/watch?...
Again this solution is a document you can read through and has been submitted to the senate this weekend. It has been hand-signed and distributed to each member of the Senate Banking Committee and hopefully is considered there.
This is the solution & the best, realistic shot at starting to address & fix the problems we are facing today. All I ask of you is to check out the videos, consider it, think about it, discuss it, share it with others, distribute it please. At the very least this will create much needed discussion amongst us for a realistic solution today or at the very best it will lead to the first step in many to halt a finacial collapse & stop a government shutdown on the people, preserve our ability to financial prosperity and ability to get a job (a good paying one in this country), and provide an example for others to follow. It can lead to a much brighter future for our ourselves, our families, and friends.
Please tell me what you think and copy/paste this to others you know.
Thank You,
Pete
(I had not had any communications with Karl Denninger, however since he moved me to get out of my seat & do this, I copied and pasted this message to him and I hope he appreciates this message as a token of respect to the message he is fighting to get out to the rest of us).
don't understand all the hurray about 'saving' FRE/FNM & letting LEH fall wiping out shareholders and boosting massive profits for shortsellers with great lobbying skills - but this created a domino-effect and the ban on shortselling is an outcome, so shortsellers (Cramer one of their top advisors) are now escaping the boat like rats...
(you shouldn't let an ex-broker steer the wheels)
HE SUCKS!!! BIG TIME!!!
1) said to sell the market (with a caution side on his back at the low in March) and we rallied through June - - watch the Don Harrold video
2) In June he told us to buy everything and the low was in (market tanked)
3) At the low in July he published this piece...moneynews.newsmax.com/...
4) At the market high in August he says that the low is in and we are going into a bull market. If I am correct (which I may not be) he said on September 8th on Mad Money to buy Lehman stock...LEH....and financials....wow, that was a bad call! He also says this at the Market high in July jimmydoomsday.blogspot...
5) So I guess if he is out saying sell right now, well we need to listen to this call because his uncanny calls are priceless ...I am buying
hmmmm
Okay, give me the cartoons.
It appears so. Market down roughly 4% in a day... sounds like he heard the freight train coming. You can always buy back in the next day, taking advantage of the big one-day drop.
Don't be so fast to generalize one person's advice as being "all right" or "all wrong". Take advice for what it is: human.
Don't be foolish and sell your stock while low, if the fundementals of the company stock you own have not changed, ( just because investors are nervous and holding back ...waiting to hear what the government is going to do....like they should)
Historically, EVERY LOW HAS BEEN FOLLOWED BY A HEALTHY REBOUND and this time will be no different....just make sure you have a good cash cushion to ride it out and take Cramer with a grain of salt!