Seeking Alpha
Long/short equity, tech, ETF investing
Profile| Send Message|
( followers)  
The April 24th edition of Forbes magazine contained a brief summary (payment req'd) of a Citigroup research report on the stock market impact of an Avian Flu pandemic. The Forbes article suggests the following "winners" and "losers":

Long

GlaxoSmithKline plc (NYSE: GSK)
The Procter & Gamble Company (NYSE: PG)
Blockbuster Inc. (NYSE: BBI)
AT&T (NYSE: T)
eBay Inc. (NASDAQ: EBAY)
Tenet Healthcare Corp. (NYSE: THC)

Short

UAL Corp. (United Airlines) (NASDAQ: UAUA)
Hilton Hotels Corp. (NYSE: HLT)
BP p.l.c. (NYSE: BP)
SABMiller plc (not traded in the US)
Neiman Marcus Group (private)
MetLife, Inc. (NYSE: MET)

It's not clear from the article which other stocks were covered in the Citigroup report. But the Forbes stock selection leaves out some other obvious short candidates in the poultry and travel & leisure industry -- which would be hit by people trying to avoid crowded places:

More Shorts

The Chicken Producers: Sanderson Farms (NASDAQ:SAFM), Tyson (NYSE:TSN), Pilgrim’s Pride (NASDAQ:PPC), and the Mexican producer Industrias Bachoco (NYSE:IBA)

The Cruise Companies: Carnival Corp. (NYSE: CCL) and Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (NYSE: RCL)

Movie Theaters: Carmike (NASDAQ:CKEC), IMAX (NYSE:IMAX) and Regal Entertainment (NYSE:RGC)

Crowded Restaurants: McDonalds (NYSE:MCD)

Resorts & Casinos: MGM (NYSE:MGM), Las Vegas Sands (NYSE:LVS), Harrah’s (HET), Wynn Resorts (NASDAQ:WYNN), Station Casinos (NYSE:STN) and Six Flags (PKS)

More Hotels: Marriot (NASDAQ:MAR), Fairmont (FHR), Four Seasons (FS) and Starwood Hotels (NYSE:HOT)

Interestingly, one Seeking Alpha contributor suggests that with the end of flu season and no outbreak of widespread Avian Flu, it's time to short the beneficiaries of Avian Flu and go long the potential victims, whose stocks have been beaten down by worry that hasn't come to fuition. His top short candidate is Gilead Sciences Inc. (NASDAQ:GILD). And his top long candidates? The chicken producers.

Full disclosure: at the time of writing the author is short CCL, HLT and RCL.

Source: Forbes' Avian Flu Stock Portfolio