Well At Least Inventory Is Declining [Housing Tracker]

Seeking Alpha's Housing Tracker is a collection of housing-related excerpts from various sources, grouped by topic. Feel free to post any interesting links on the subject in the comments section below.

House Sales/Price Data

Existing-Home Sales Fall; Backlog Shrinks. “National Association of Realtors: Sales of previously owned homes declined in August, but in a promising sign the backlog of unsold homes shrank. Sales of existing homes fell 2.2% in August from the previous month to an annual sales pace of 4.91 million units. The data cover sales of homes, condominiums and townhouses. The inventory of unsold houses fell to a 10.4-month supply at the current sales pace, compared with July's 10.9-month supply. The current inventory is still large, and many analysts say prices must fall even more to attract buyers. The median home price was $203,100 in August, down 9.5% from the year before.” (WSJ, Sept. 25)

U.S. Economy: Home Sales, Durable Goods Orders Drop. “Commerce Dept.: Home sales decreased 11.5%… Economists had forecast new-home sales would drop to a 510,000 annual pace… July sales were revised up to a 520,000 pace from a previously estimated 515,000… The median price of a new home dropped 6.2% from a year earlier to $221,900, the lowest level since September 2004. Sales of new homes were down 35% from August 2007… The number of homes for sale fell to a four-year low of 408,000, down 4.4% from the prior month. The decline was the biggest since 1963. Still, the supply of homes at the current sales rate rose to 10.9 months' worth from 10.3 months.” (Bloomberg, Sept. 25)

Home Price Declines Stabilize in July: Report. “First American CoreLogic: During July, U.S. nominal home prices declined 10.9 percent from average prices one year ago… CoreLogic [also] said that an early look at August’s data suggests a similar 10.8% annualized price drop. The company’s LoanPerformance Home Price Index has suggested a slowing in the rate of price declines nationwide the past few months, even if the price drops remain well into double-digit territory.” (Housing Wire, Sept. 24)

OFHEO: U.S. Home Prices Slid In July. “Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight monthly price index: U.S. home prices were down 5.3% in July compared to a year ago, and fell 0.6% from the month before. That compares with a 5% annual decline and no month-to-month decline in June. OFHEO's monthly index tracks only sales of homes relying on loans that are purchased or guaranteed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and may understate price declines and appreciation in some markets because it excludes mortgages too large or risky for Fannie and Freddie… The index puts the cumulative decline in U.S. housing prices at 5.8% since an April 2007 peak.” (Inman News, Sept. 24)

NAR: Sales, Prices Sink In August. “NAR: By region, existing-home sales fell sharpest in the South (-15.1%) compared to a year ago, followed by the Northeast (-15%) and Midwest (-12.3%). Sales in the West gained 4.9% over their year-earlier numbers. Prices declined greatest in the West (down 23.9% to $251,600) compared to a year ago, followed by the Midwest (down 5.6% to $168,000), Northeast (down 3.8% to $271,000), and South (down 3.4% to $176,500).” (Inman News, Sept. 24)

Drop In San Fernando Valley Median Home Prices 'Stunning'. “San Fernando Economic Research Center at California State University, Northridge: San Fernando Valley homeowners saw property values plunge 35%- a quarter-million dollars on a median-price home - in the year since the credit crisis erupted and foreclosures began flooding the market. The median price of a previously owned house tumbled from $650,000 in August 2007 to $420,000 last month… matching levels last seen in January 2004. Daniel Blake, the center's director: "Next month we'll be back at 2003 prices." The August median is still $260,000 higher than the $160,000 recorded in January 1996, the low mark of the previous bear market.” (Los Angeles Daily News, Sept. 24)

Florida Home Sales Up, Prices Continue To Fall. “Florida Association of Realtors President Chuck Bonfiglio: Realtors are seeing signs that investors think the market has bottomed out in many areas, and are starting to jump back in. Fort Lauderdale reported 604 existing home sales in August, up slightly from the prior year’s 538 sales. The median sales price fell 27%, to $269,800 from $368,800. Miami reported 469 existing homes sold in August, a 22% increase from 385 home sales during August 2007. The median sales price declined to $276,000 from $392,900. West Palm Beach-Boca Raton reported 623 homes sold in August compared with 568 homes a year ago, a 10% increase. Median prices, however, were down to $323,300 from $366,200, a 12% drop.” (South Florida Business Journal, Sept. 24)

Area Home Foreclosures Increase; Prices Follow.  Oklahoma: Area home prices increased over the same period last year, jumping by 1.62% during July 2008 compared to July 2007. The current median price of a home in Tulsa or BA is $140,000.” (Bixby Bulletin, Sept. 24)

Home Prices Fall 9%. “Market tracker the Warren Group: The median-priced Massachusetts house fetched $323,000 last month, down from $355,000 in August 2007… partly [because of] declines to falling home values on Cape Cod, where median Barnstable County prices dropped 18.8% to $325,000.Median prices also declined 15% in Worcester County to $234,000… The number of houses sold statewide last month dropped 14.6% to just 4,376 properties. That’s the poorest August showing since 1992… Just 2,302 condos changed hands last month - a 22.4% drop from August 2007. Still, median condo prices did inch up 1% to $295,000.” (Boston Herald, Sept. 24)

                                         

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Comments

[Tom B:]

Reduced inventory is a great sign, but some of that is simply people deferring moves to bigger houses. There's a certain amount of "shadow inventory".

2008 Sep 26 08:58 AM

[geoinvest:]

I agree with Tom B. The headline on this report is a bit lame, given the number of people who have withheld their property from the market and the shadow inventories of foreclosed property which have not been listed with the realtors.

2008 Sep 26 11:02 AM

[billddrummer:]

Hi Judy,

So the spinmeisters at NAR say inventory is down. What is happening here in Northern NV is that people are letting their listings expire and not renewing them. Which speaks to weakness rather than strength.

There's too much competition from foreclosed properties being offered at well below what used to be market prices. As a result, people who aren't distressed and were going to sell are having to deeply discount their own homes. When they find that out, they just let the listing lapse, and put off their sale for 'later.' In a way, it's similar to the published unemployment number vs. the real unemployment number, as people give up looking for work, and get dropped from the unemployment rolls.

Don't expect inventory to fall much further.

2008 Sep 26 12:31 PM

[rockerchic:]

It is interesting that no one is really spending much time discussing the backlogged inventory that is being withheld from appearing on the bank's balance sheets and quarterly reports. By not recording these losses, banks put off till tomorrow of having to show these negative assets which allows them appear 'more stable' than they really are. This tactic prevents massive sell-offs in their stock prices (I should say more massive) which could bankrupt them (are you looking at WaMu today...slaughterhouse meltdown). It would be nice to have analysts do their homework on this and publish the true NOD, pre-forclosure rates that are going to come as a result. I've seen prediction charts and it is a mess... don't even tell me about inventory looking brighter. WaMu is not failing (failed by tomorrow?) because the future is looking brighter, dear.

2008 Sep 26 02:08 PM

[rockerchic:]

Here are some new indicators shown in this article:

www.realtytrac.com/New...

2008 Sep 26 07:43 PM