Seeking Alpha

Tim Plaehn


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During my recent stock research I have come across of a couple of investments that are paying dividends in the neighborhood of 20% per year. In normal times, stocks with these kind of yields are big fat warnings that something is wrong with the security and the high payout cannot be sustained. The current market, however, has punished the good along with the bad without discrimination, and many issues are seriously undervalued. I believe the following two issues have a strong possibility of maintaining and even growing their distributions over time and deserve a look.

The first security that pays 20% is not an individual stock, but is a closed end fund. This issue is the Alpine Global Premier Properties (AWP). AWP holds listed real estate stocks with a global perspective. The emphasis of this fund is international real estate, with over 80% of its holdings outside of the U.S. The portfolio appears to be well diversified with over 130 holdings.

The Alpine closed end funds do not use leverage; all payouts are earned income, not return of capital. The share price of the fund has been eroding on the double hit of global financial crisis and general weakness on most foreign stock markets. At the current pricing and yield, I think is an attractive if very speculative income play. The AWP shares currently trade at a 16% discount to NAV and the monthly dividend provides a 21% yield.

Star Bulk Carriers Corp. (SBLK) went public in December 2007 and currently has a fleet fleet of 12 dry bulk carrier ships. The company aims to have their vessels on 3 to 5 year time charters. Financial goals are to pay a steady, fixed dividend with free cash flow of at least 120% of the dividend. For the first 6 months of 2008 the company earned $1.01 per share against 70¢ paid in dividends. The share price of SBLK is now about half of the December IPO and the current yield is over 19%. This is not surprising as the various Baltic shipping indexes have fallen about 60% over the last 3 months. Shipping rates should recover as China restarts their economy following the Olympic games and need to replenish raw materials.

I view both of these securities as interesting and speculative with lots of upside potential. I plan on including both as half size positions when I start up my new and improved Opportunities Portfolio on 10/1/2008.

Disclosure: In no position in any security listed.

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This article has 16 comments:

  •  
    AWP is down 40% for the previous year. Yikes!
    2008 Sep 26 04:09 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    That is why I did not look at it a year ago!
    2008 Sep 26 06:47 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Lots of babies being tossed out with the toxic waste water lately. It's like the whole market has been turned input call options. Some are going to pay off handsomely, some will spiral into the enormous black hole at the center of our economy.
    2008 Sep 26 06:52 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    sorry, "... INTO call options."
    2008 Sep 26 06:52 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    looking into AWP further, CEFA says only 1/3 of the 17% distribution is income !?!?

    www.cefa.com/FundSelec...
    2008 Sep 26 07:08 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Check ACAS and CMO for some massive, so far reliable, divs.
    2008 Sep 26 07:47 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    I'm hoping for a post-Olympic turnaround for the drybulk shippers, via EXM. BDI has been in a real free fall right now. PEG on EXM is .13! Good luck on SBLK!
    2008 Sep 26 07:54 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Hi Tim, I'm with you on the dry bulk shippers - the whole industry is a bargain now.

    But I would stay away from AWP. If you listened to the last conference call for their fund group (including AOD) management say that they have massive dividends and are not returning capital, but if you dig in a little bit, you'll find that when the underlying companies issue the dividends, their NAVs go way down, it comes out of AWP/AOD's NAVs. , and they never recover. If you want to make the dividend real estate plays here, I would look at the underlying stocks, and not trust the Alpine management on this.
    2008 Sep 27 12:09 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    the world is entering a recession. do you realize that there are way too many bulk carriers out there? bulk carriers ship commodities. the owners forecast 5 to 10 years in advance of their needs and commission the construction of vessels. the owners cannot stop the construction and the new ships are coming. but they do not need the new ships because recessions cause commodity demand to fall. they then have a price war and a profit squeeze because they need to pay for the new ship.

    i think you get the point - stay away from bulk carriers during a recession.
    2008 Sep 27 01:24 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Belief in a global recession may be very misplaced. The wheels of industry continue to turn in many parts of the globe. Ships ordered years in advance can be canceled and will be as speculators in the business are unable to obtain financing in the current environment. Financially strong players will have the opportunity to pick up vessels as their business demands them.
    2008 Sep 27 09:14 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    SBLK is being pushed by the Boiler Room guys.

    Cold Calls with "inside info".

    This is always a red flag.

    But I agree that shippers and real estate funds are sectors to scrutinize for strong players that will pay dividends , survive , and prove to be bargains in an eventual turnaround in their respective sectors.
    2008 Sep 27 09:32 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    What tonnage has been announced for construction? What tonnage has been contracted for construction? What tonnage is 'locked in' (financing) for completion and entry onto the market? Numbers, please.
    2008 Sep 27 01:36 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    FRO &NAT.
    2008 Sep 27 02:08 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    SBLK goes opposite with fuel cost. If and when fuel goes back to under $3.00, then good chance it'll move up.
    2008 Sep 27 06:15 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    ACAS and EXM are excellent investments with little downside risk and nice payout while you wait for the stock to return. I also like AHR.
    2008 Sep 27 08:14 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    I predict massive consolidation going forward in dry-bulk shipping. Some of this will be driven by the commodity companies that are placing orders for ships, and also, I project, snapping up smaller players in the industry. For an example, see Rio Vale (RIO). I agree EXM is one with the power and management to succeed, but this economy is for patient players only.
    2008 Sep 28 01:45 PM | Link | Reply