Sirius XM at Work - Largest Pool of Potential Subscribers 221 comments
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Radio is really not a very complicated business. You want to offer something that no one else can, to attract as many listeners as possible. Sirius XM (SIRI) has certainly nailed this part down! The biggest problem that Sirius XM seems to have not figured out is where and when people actually listen to radio.
I know from personal experience that I rarely listen to radio at home. I always listen in my car, yet the time spent in my car is minimal. Sirius XM has, up to now, primarily sought subscribers from those people who listen in their cars.
Most people, in my opinion listen to radio AT WORK. Over the past two weeks, one observant reader of SiriusBuzz has pointed several times that Mad Dog Radio is not available on the Internet, and that many people are not in their cars between 2 to 5 P.M. Which brings me back to this subject that I am adamant about.
There are over 11 million construction workers in the United States. Carpenters, Painters, Electricians, Plumbers, Sheet-rockers, Masons and Landscapers. Do you know what these people do all day, every day? They listen to RADIO! They don’t listen to iPods. Instead they listen to the cheapest radios produced and sold at the highest possible price because they are made for a construction environment. Milwaukee, DeWalt and Bosch all make specific work-site radios for tradespeople, yet none of them are equipped with Satellite Radio. Can you guess what auto mechanics listen to at work? That’s right, radio.
Most of America does not have the luxury of sitting at a desk all day or driving in their cars. They work! In my opinion, this is the largest pool of potential subscribers and they have been ignored for the most part.
There are nearly 70 million full-time employed adults at work during an average work day. That’s nearly 6 times the combined annual US Auto Sales. At 5 PM more than 28,500,000 are still working. At 6 PM 16,100,000 are still working.
Rather than all this talk of iPods and high-tech devices, I think Sirius XM should reach out to the working man and woman. The middle class, rather than the BMW buyer. This was Stern's audience. Not the Mercedes Benz buyer. And people who work are the ones who can afford Satellite Radio. These are also the people that advertisers want to reach.
Position: Long SIRI
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This article has 221 comments:
I hope the advertising/marketing guys at Sirius are reading these posts..... I for one am getting sick of watching this stock get pummeled....
Great insight!
This is also end of the quarter "Black Out" for pumping from company officers, and the country is in a "Financial Crisis" and isn't listening for what to buy, at least this week. Oct 6th is around the corner and the launching of new products, and financial updates should happen during that week. Let's hope that the markets in general will stabilize and float all boats.
TELL YOUR FRIEND TOO!
I WILL SAY THIS AGAIN AND AGAIN!
TO SAVE THIS STOCK THEY NEED SUBSCRIBERS!
BUY YOUR SELF A SIRI OR XM RADIO AND SUBSCRIPTION!
THE HIGHER THE NUMBERS THE FASTER THEY WILL PAY OFF THE DEBT AND THE MORE SUBSCRIBERS THEY SEE, INVESTORS WILL SEE TOO!
BUY A SUBSCRIPTION TO SIRIUS XM! IF YOU CARE ABOUT YOUR INVESTMENT! TELL ALL UR FRIENDS TO GET ONE!
Does anyone know what happened with the financing conference the other day... that no obvious news came out for??
Lies, more lies, please, I need them. There like food to me.
Hey everyone, did you hear, USB ports are going to take out Sirius?
Did you hear? The sound of a volcano erupting is going to take out Sirius? When you say Wifi is going to take out Sirius, I hear...
"Im dumb and dont know what Im talking about"
O come one, where do i start.
Thats like saying, when they start charging $13 a month for my cable that goes from my car charger to my phone, im going to buy it and sell my sirius stock.
When I get to pay $13 a month for my ability to acess my VCAST, which I already have, cause I pay $15 a month for it, im going to call up Verizon and offer an additional $13 a month for something I can already do.
Hey did you hear? Cable companies are going to start charging you per inch of cable used. Crazy!!!!
I want someone on here to tell me the best and most reliable wireless media format? Most accessible across this country, with the least breaks in service? Now I want you to tell me how your gonig to listen to your car internet radio camping in the rockies. Or driving to LA even. Go ahead, Ill wait.
Only time will tell. I even at the age of 78 do have HOPE for the nation that I love and all true believers. Sorry if I mix politics and religion. It is about time this nation reverses course and returnsto God for his blessings.
Well Mr MEL, how many other gas stations have your Rep guys / gals reached to be new subs.
Or if they are lazy, may be mailing to all gas stations who play music over head 24/7, you may get few 100,000 subs and free advertizing for SiriusXM to all those people with cars pumping gas and have radios in there not activated yet
go bears
If you sold your shares for 10000, use all 10000 to rebuy lower, dont buy the same number of shares back at a cheaper price. That banks money, but it doesnt help your real buy in too much.
THIS MAKES ME SICK! PLEASE VOTE OUT EVERY CONGRESSMAN/WOMAN WHO VOTED THIS BILL DOWN TODAY. THEY ARE DUMB, STUPID AND WORTHLESS. THEY ARE SMUG, DESPOTIC AND ONLY WORRIED ABOUT THEIR OWN SKINS AND BEING RE-ELECTED. THEY'RE MAKING YOU PAY, NOW PLEASE MAKE THEM PAY AND VOTE NO! MAKE THEM GET A REAL JOB AND PAY THEIR OWN BENEFITS, INSURANCE AND LETS SEE HOW THEY LIKE IT.
Now back to SIRI. Hey, what can you do? We're caught up in an eddy right now. There is no logic, no rhyme, no reason. Nothing makes sense anymore. If any of you lived through the market the days and weeks after 9/11, that's where we are. I was in then too. Your best bet from here is don't jump but also don't bring any new money in. This stock is beaten down and left for dead. This is the bottom but the bottom has a range. We could see .40 before it's over. Don't try to pick the bottom and just wait until your current investment comes back. It would be a mistake to bring any new money in the market right now--unless you have a realistic time window and promise not to cry or whine when the stock goes down from here. For now, The House of Reps has ruined your short-term future because they're fat cat idiot politicians who make a good salary, have full benefits, and have access to major perks. Why should they worry? They're happy to let the market tank and then go on holiday. But it's not SIRI's fault that this is happening. All you can do now is wait and let the politicians play king. The way to get them back is by spreading the word and voting them out of office .
look at history for that one:
month open high low close Avg volume
Apr-03 0.77 0.82 0.6 0.74 18,835,500
May-03 0.75 1.6 0.61 1.6 101,093,000
Jun-03 1.83 2.39 1.6 1.69 112,285,900
Jul-03 1.68 1.94 1.6 1.78 36,097,000
Aug-03 1.81 2.06 1.4 1.68 36,273,000
Sep-03 1.6 2.08 1.55 1.82 40,419,700
Oct-03 1.84 2.68 1.83 2.35 81,775,100
Nov-03 2.38 2.42 1.88 2.08 43,570,000
Dec-03 2.16 3.47 2.08 3.16 59,007,600
Jan-04 3.35 4.2 2.65 2.7 99,495,700
Feb-04 2.76 3.29 2.61 2.94 56,897,200
Mar-04 2.98 3.4 2.8 3.4 45,083,900
Apr-04 3.43 4.17 3.12 3.3 69,988,400
Surprisingly the time frame is very similar.. .After the May '09 issues is done ..... I would just be repeating others on this blog.
Run Blue Dog Run...
DON'T BE FOOLED WHEN YOU HEAR CONGRESS IS PROTECTING THE PEOPLE (THEIR "CONSTITUENTS,") AND THAT THEY WON'T BAIL OUT FAT CATS OF WALL STREET--THAT'S TOTAL BS. IT MAKES ME SICK. THIS IS THEIR PERSONAL VENDETTA TO TRY TO "STICK IT TO WALL STREET," LOOK LIKE HEROES AND "THEY THINK" SAVE THEIR JOBS--THAT'S IT. DON'T THEY KNOW ALMOST ALL THEIR "CONSTITUENTS" OWN STOCKS, HAVE MORTGAGES? WE HAVE TO NOW SHOW THEM HOW WRONG THEY ARE...THEY VOTED NO ON YOU... VOTE NO ON THEM!!! DON'T FORGET, WHEN THE GOVERNMENT SAYS THEY ARE HERE TO HELP "YOU", THAT'S WHEN IT'S TIME TO BE WORRIED!! THESE PUKES F'D UP. MAKE THEM PAY!!!
See, Sirius will do better long term with this vote. Still need to reinflate the economy, now they wont be able to borrow from the future to do it.
MONEY IS TOILET PAPER. We shouldnt have to pay interest on toilet paper!!
Time for rate cutes now(Sirius stock should love that) and FED printing presses to work overtime!! No worries , the FED wont let the economy go to shit, because they ARE the economy(money supply). Not only egg on their face, its being ousted as financial leaders and lenders. They wont give up the chicken coop for a little money flow problems. They can fix that, EASY. Just goodbye dollar, hello .60 and lower on the dollar index. Should be their by next March.
Here's an analogy. Financially, we are like a runaway train without brakes. There are only two options. Wait until the train runs out of track and crash and burn or keep shifting onto different existing tracks at shift points and build new track when necessary--and keep going. Since it has no real value, the 700B connected to this "plan" is nothing more than a moving part--it's the plan and the confidence it brings so everything else can work that's necessary. IMHO...
I think we're on the same page. Personally, I don't quite understand why we're not just cranking up the press anyway. Why are we screwing around with legislature now? Although if I remember correctly, Paulson submitted a 3 page request to that and congress freaked out and turned it into this monster. Man I hate politics. I agree, these clowns will pass something. Once again, I say we're victimized by more "strategy". The plan was reject today and "let's just see what happens." OK, idiots, today you got -777. Tomorrow probably -444. Then on Wed, they'll go holy s@#!, I guess they were right and pass it...
"Write on stocks trading
above $1 a share
We do not cover penny stocks due to concern for manipulation."
FDR Solves The Mortgage Crisis
The New Republic: There Are Lessons In How Roosevelt Dealt With A Similar Housing Situation 75 Years Ago
"Here should be an objective of Government itself, to provide at least as much assistance to the little fellow as it is now giving to the large banks and corporations."--Frankl... D. Roosevelt, April 7, 1932
The burgeoning home-mortgage crisis of 2007 bears an eerie resemblance to financial conditions 75 years ago, when FDR realized that only the U.S. government could forestall a wave of home foreclosures by directly helping "the little fellow." Today, homeowners can only hope that something akin to Roosevelt's New Deal answer to the home-loan crisis of the 1930s--direct lending to homeowners--is embraced by policymakers once again...
(for the rest):
www.cbsnews.com/storie...
CITI Maintains Buy On Sirius XM
By: Tyler Savery Monday, September 29, 2008 12:51 PM
On the heels of three reports issued on Friday, Citi’s Tony Wible has come out with his own report today, and joins Barclays in seeing upside potential in Sirius XM Radio. Wible reiterated his buy rating on the equity with a target price of $3.75.
“We believe SIRI’s recent stock performance is a reflection of auto weakness, credit issues, and diminishing consumer confidence. These overhanging issues have made it more difficult for investors to appreciate the SIRI’s long term value, which we now quantify using terminal cash flow analysis, long term sub estimates, and leverage assumptions.”
The analyst outlines three scenarios for investors to consider:
- Using a conservative 7x multiple on terminal cash flow per sub we believe SIRI would be worth $1.41 (20%penetration) in a worst case.
- The company could be worth up to $4.57 (50% penetration) in an aggressive case.
- A more realistic scenario (35% penetration by 2018) suggests that the stock is worth $3.00.
Wible does recognize near term issues that can weigh on the stock, identifying OEM sales and the re-financings as issues that give concern, but also as potential positives once auto sales turn around, and the refinancing happens. Wible has made a conservative assumption by calculating that the $300 mil due in Feb will be funded by an equity offering. He sees improvements in FCF due to merger synergies may put SIRI in a solid position to refinance the remaining $750 mil due later in 2009.
Position - Long SIRI
He says "the people stood up today and said no to the plan and their willing to risk 20% unemployment and being on hard times--just as long as they don't get stuck paying for the plan."
Where do they grow this guy? What a loser!
Lets say that the government invested in the (former) homeowner by subsidizing loans with affordable payment scales to those who are losing their homes to foreclosure. Even if a second chance offer is given to those whom already lost their home. This way the banks will receive a government backed promise of payment in full over the next 30 years and a full bore all in bailout will not be necessary. I am sure there are are more effective creative options to consider. So, I guess "let the chips fall where they may". As far as the congressional decision, I, like everyone else would like to see a quick fix happen so that we can all breathe a sigh of relief and get back to business as usual. But wouldn't this just be treating the symptom and not really attacking the root of the problem? I think by letting the meltdown continue, at least for the present, there will be a great weeding out of all the deficiencies, exposing those who have been able to camouflage themselves up to this point. A government bailout will definitely heal some surface wounds in the short term, but the filth and greed on Wall Street runs deep. Letting the demons slide now could mean, although difficult to fathom, far greater consequences and irreparable damage than we are currently facing. Remember, the only remorse of a convicted criminal is the regret of getting caught! There is no better time than the present to commence an annihilation of the cancer before it completely and inevitably consumes us!
ditto, good points...
I see gov action as just the beginning, to stablize the confidence in the people and he system.No confidence = big trouble for all. I think doing nothing and letting the market free fall and seek it's own level to clean out the bad is too risky. Further, I am not willing to risk facing an economy much worse than this--esp. when it's not necessary. We are on the verge of just grindng to a halt on consumer/business spending and lending. This can not be allowed to happen--even if there is a slim chance it might. Look at SIRI stock. We're all now underwater for who knows how long letting SIRI's water find it's own level. Like everyone, I'm out thousands but it doesn't feel real good. Now imagine we just let the economy do the same? How long will it take, how painful will it be, how many casualties will there be, defaults, bankruptcies, no credit. NO THANKS! Not when we are perfectly capable of action to stablize, then get to work purging the system of the blockages and dealing with the mortgage problem. Too many people (esp congressmen god bless 'em) think this is only about bailing out fat cats. It's really about saving the people themselves from some pretty serious pain. Too much distracting talk about fat cats!! At this stage, call it a form of insurance against something pretty bad. Isn't that what our country is built on--insurance? A plan passing is just the first step and not a panacea. If you look at Wall Street too btw, look at how it's already changed fo the better. The market has already cleaned house on itself pretty well. There ARE no more investment banks anymore... 100 Y/o institutions--poof, gone!. Who's left? just Morgan Stanley is left. Now you have super banks forming. Won't they have fat cats? Yes. Absolute power always corrupts absolutely...But the bad people congress is talking about now are gone--already out of business. Further, what, there are no fat cats in Washington? I just heard today an investigation was opened on Fannie and Freddie--rightfully so-they are just as responsible for this mess. These congressmen just need to get somethng out there to start with and allow it expand organically and address the issues as they are discovered. Instead they've now turned this into their usual inefficient slog of bickering, finger pointing, blaming the other, etc.. There are too many politicians thinking they know exactly what's there. Most of them voting don't even have a clue as to what exactly the problems are or how they were created. All they will keep saying is "nothing for the fat cats! Power to the people!" Ughh, it's so boring by now...
So what's the best way to attack the housing issues? That comes second. First is stabilize confidence! so people are ok with spending and lending money again. I don't under estimate that since it's the foundation of the entire system.
Money talks, bullcrap walks. Opportunity usually knocks. This time it's hitting the door with a sledgehammer.
This company is either going to go bankrupt, or soar eventually. I've got 38,000 shares now. I believe in free enterprise. I believe in democracy. I believe in technology. I believe in SIRI.
You assholes that jump up and down with glee every time SIRI drops lower so you can ridicule and berate people you think you're smarter than are in for some bad times. If you delight in the pain of others, you are not just a dirty, rotten, pile of dog crap...no.... you're a dirty, rotten, pile of dog crap that is about to run face first into a very bad karmatic experience.
***********
Bill Introduced to Have HD-Compatible Radio Receivers
Markey, who is also chairman of the House Subcommittee on Telecommunications and the Internet, introduced the ‘‘Radio All Digital Channel Receiver Act’’ over the weekend.
Sept 29, 2008
-By Jeffrey Yorke, Radio and Records
To the delight of radio broadcasters, Rep. Ed Markey (D-Mass.) took time off from Congress' bipartisan effort to save the economy to introduce a bill that would require satellite and radio receiver manufacturers to include in all receivers sold in the U.S. the ability to receive HD Radio signals. Markey, who is also chairman of the House Subcommittee on Telecommunications and the Internet, introduced the ‘‘Radio All Digital Channel Receiver Act’’ over the weekend.
"Millions of Americans today rely on local broadcast radio for news, public safety bulletins, sports, weather, traffic and other information,” said Markey. “As the broadcast radio industry migrates to digital broadcasting technology, this legislation will ensure that consumers are able to readily receive free service through consumer electronics systems that are otherwise receiving satellite digital audio radio and traditional AM or FM stations.”
Markey said his bill seeks to address the long-term competitive health of local radio “while ensuring that their local, digital services are readily received by radio consumers." The bill has the support of a bipartisan group of Energy and Commerce Committee House members who co-sponsored H.R. 7157, including Lee Terry (R-NE), Charlie Gonzalez (D-TX), Greg Walden (R-OR), Joe Wilson (R-SC), and Dan Burton (R-IN).
The Act also seeks to do what the FCC failed to do when it approved the historic merger between satcasters Sirius and XM on July 25. That was the time for the regulatory body to require radio manufacturers to require HD Radio capability be included on all satellite receivers, believes FCC Commissioner Jonathan Adelstein. During a Sept. 19 commissioner’s breakfast at the NAB Radio Show/R&R Convention in Austin, the commissioner, an opponent of the merger, played down the commission’s recent official public inquiry which seeks comment on making forcing HD Radio technology be included on satellite receivers and expressed doubt that the commission now has the legal authority to enforce such a requirement.
According to an article in the Naples, Fla. Daily News on Sept.27, Beasley Broadcast Group VP/CFO Caroline Beasley, who also is chairman of the National Association of Broadcasters' HD Radio Digital Technology Advancement Force, said HD Radio is within listening range of 90 percent of the U.S. population. And while the task force has been affective encouraging broadcasters to roll out new, niche formats at sidebar stations around the country, automobile manufacturers have been slow to add the technology to their option lists. Markey’s legislation would be a boon to broadcasters.
"NAB salutes the leadership of chairman Markey and a bipartisan group of lawmakers for sponsoring this important bill that will boost the integration of HD Radio in satellite radio receivers, including those installed in automobiles," said NAB president and CEO David K. Rehr. "In addition to providing 235 million weekly listeners with entertainment and music programming, free local radio stations have a long tradition of serving as a lifeline during times of crisis. This legislation will extend and enhance these services as radio stations embrace our digital future."
It is unclear whether the pending legislation would force manufacturers of Sirius XM receivers to include HD Radio technology on aftermarket satellite receivers plug and play units that traditionally include only satellite reception intended to be used in tandem with already installed AM/FM receivers. Sirius XM spokesman Patrick Reilly could not be reached for comment.
RELMOR too bad Apple didn't consult you about streaming media and cell phone signals. it would have saved them that huge write off they had to take on that failed IPHONE thing.
howcome people dont have wireless internet radio's in their houses?? Where wireless is found in almost every home already ... People are still buying satellite rads for their homes... If you can tell me why ill believe you ....
2.5 Trillion in market cap was lost in the market on Monday. The bailout plan was 700 billion. Today’s congressional decision effectively cost 3.57 times more than the bailout plan. If Tuesday’s market drop matches Monday's, that is 5 Trillion in market cap loss. More than 7 times as much. And so it all goes down into the abyss. The bailout is 700 billion right now. By the time our knucklehead government realizes this bailout is not optional but a critical necessity and they finally approve it, (pending all self serving contingencies are met) there may very well be (or should I say absolutely will be) far reaching peripheral market damage that a token 700 billion injection can not even hope to effect, let alone any kind of dramatic turn around. This is simple economics and mathematics involved here. I still think that letting the market adjust itself to balance the runaway fantasy based prices back to levels that are rooted in reality is a good thing. But it has become obvious to me today that the market, not just the US market but also the world market, does not have the integrity, intelligence, confidence or patience for such a thing. I do think there is a real danger of a worldwide DEPRESSION looming over our heads. Fortunately, this great country we live in has the power to turn things around on a dime and come out smelling like a champ. Unfortunately, we live in a country where political and personal agendas run deeper than the will to nurture the welfare of the common man, woman and child. As far as Sirius XM radio goes, well, it is good to try to keep hope alive. But being blind to the big picture and not noticing the effect of the world imploding around you is outright asinine! This forum, as well as many others, is an example of the same myopic view that is causing this mess in the first place. Nobody wants to admit how fucked we are. Everyone just wants to gossip about the “how and why and when” of their personal loss and gains and the dream of the big cash reward at the end of the golden gravy train. The reality is right there in front of you. Sirius, as well as many other companies that have been skating for years on thin ice, is absolutely going to fail and all your hard earned (and some not so hard earned) cash is going with it. If this meltdown had not happened, I would have quite the opposite opinion. There is one last sliver of hope here. That is if our government is able to see past the future and focus on what is happening today. They must come to our rescue NOW!
There is a famous event in history (1970) when President Nixon set out in the middle of the night for the Lincoln Memorial where a group of student protesters were camped out. Concerned about the Viet Nam War, the recent campus riots and protests and the Kent State killings a week prior, Nixon felt compelled to connect with young America and have a chance to explain his position and concerns directly as well as listening to theirs. Regardless of the outcome of that event, the single most poignant observation one can make was that he, by his own will, made himself accessible. My point is that there is no president or candidate or any politician that would even dream of such an intimate encounter. And if it did happen you could be sure it would be a circus of folly complete with international media coverage, completely contrived and designed to give a popularity boost. There always seems to be little or no regard for the truth, and no concern for the people whose lives and welfare are depending on their decisions. The government of today is a closed circuit that only looks after its own interest while maintaining a façade of public awareness. Try as we may, there are safeguards built into our government that keep us at a safe distance. You see, we can rant all we want, but in reality, nobody is listening as we continue our circle jerk of hope.
You don't know to much do you??
Mel even said that the company has a possability to post it's first profit ever by the 4Q....
and %90 of the time he's low ballin estimates... Sounds like a sweet deal to anyone who knows SIRIUS.!!
Pandora and other internet radio operators are on the brink of shutting down again as the negotiations for the royalty fees threaten to push into february of '09...
"POOF" There goes internet radio (Unless APPL decides it wants to try and pull it out of the ashes)
"Mel even said that the company has a possability to post it's first profit ever by the 4Q"
keyword to your little comment is "possibility" which of course you spelled wrong and really holds no weight when your company is in
the current state that it is now. Possibility means (in case you didnt know) there is a chance but not a guarantee. This is not the time to lowball numbers as you claim, is a trait of Mel.
He is going to lowball this stock right into bankruptcy and from the looks
of it. You are going to be the first one to drown. There is no turnaround
here, I fought the fight at $3.79 to $1.15. Then I woke up and realized I
need to put my money elsewhere.
There was no pop when the merger was FINALLY approved. When
do you see something positive? The crystal ball is a bit foggy right now
or should I shake it again?
Stubbornness is the DENIAL of TRUTH
To all people thinking of jumping:
Please read the above. This is your classic example of someone who will lose A LOT of money in the stock market and convinces himself "he'll make it up later in another stock." Yes, this man I guarantee you has suffered many losses on many other stocks. So if you want to be him, follow his advice!
First, people aren't buying sattelite radio receivers for their houses. If they were, Best Buy and Circuit City would be much happier. People are WIRING THEIR COMPUTERS TO RECEIVERS AND STREAMING AUDIO AROUND THE HOUSE. Good old fashioned technology marrying a new way to bring in audio content. And it's a MUCH broader pool of listening than XM/SIRI offers...Internet radio, FREE concerts from Wolfgang's Vault, Internet streams of 'old' radio from around the world...and XM/SIRI programming if you're willing to pay for it. Evidently, not many people are. You're already paying for cannectivity in your home, right?
Relmor, whether you fart on the moon or not, XM/SIRI still stinks as an investment. And it will in the long term because no more than 8-9% of potential users of the product are going to abandon FREE radio in their cars, regardless of whether there is a stable enough technology to bring Internet streaming to cars. At home, if I wanted non -stop 50's, 60's, 70's, reggae metal or whatever to listen to all day, I'd run "Music Choice" (which I already pay for via Comcast digital) through my receiver and have most of the SIRI/XM music formats covered. Why on earth do I need a satellite radio in my home??? To listen to Howard talk to strippers? I can choose from any sports station in America on any given morning via the web and be better entertained. Face it, XM/SIRI = BROKEN BUSINESS MODEL...unless they can sell advertising and stop charging for the service. And then, you'll all complain about the commmercials.
You obviously sound like someone who bet the house and kids on this stock to jump to $5 post merger like Cramer was shouting for months on end and is quite bitter you are down so much. This statement is an assumption since I don't know you from Adam. Thought to throw this in since you seem to know me so well.
And get back to SIRIUS talk...
Why doesnt HBO just start broadcasting over the open airwaves too. Same logic. And 30 years ago, people made the case that no one would pay for TV. Well everyone pays for TV now. Why? Because the content and product is much better that what is piped over the airwaves. I have not met anyone who does not fall in love with my Sirius when they hear it.
I don't know you but I know your comment, which you yourself made--and it "fits the mold." If you know the game, then you even know exactly what I'm talking about. If you're basis was 3.79 and you jumped @ 1.15, that's the profile. You did what Wall Street expects of you and every other nieve main street investor. If you were following traditional rules of playing the market, no way would you wait that long, then jump. Because I used to be an active trader (Includng day trading), I can tell you exactly what you are thinking right at this moment. Right now, you are PRAYING that SIRI does not come back to 1.15. You were sweating bullets when they surged back to buck 2 weeks ago (and hit 1.08 in pre market!). Because when that happens, you are going to be sick that you took the loss. I know because before I learned how not to do such things, I made the same mistakes. Temporarily, you are feeling better now that the stock is getting washed in the financial crisis eddy--because it continues to justify your sale. But the fact is (and I know you know this deep down), that SIRI will not only hit 1.15 again, but then 1.25, 1.40, 1.75 and eventually 2, then 3, then 4. When it gets back to 3.79 sometime next year, you will then have to face the fact that you really broke the rules of investing. Like I said, I know because I've been there myself. Btw, also if it was a pure spec play for you, you would still be in because spec plays require a time investment, which you clearly did not alllow--yet anothor broken rule..
I have no reason to dislike you but the facts are just the facts dude!
I just went to add the "Best of XM" package when I saw the news it was available. And guess what....I get "Not Available for your Receiver". WELL.....I'm waiting for new product to COME OUT to upgrade my receiver.
LET'S GET THE NEW EQUIPMENT ON THE MARKET TO MAKE SALES TO CURRENT SUBSCRIBERS WHO LOVE THE PRODUCT AND WANT TO UPGRADE.
And who is gonna buy it? Clear Channel? Didn't they already dump the Stern Show once?
I agree think oustide the box, but don't do it by crawling back into the old box.
When a stock is being manipulated one way, there is a 99percent chance its going the opposite directions(EVENTUALLY....
Heres some examples from this year that proved me right(huge moves the other way, and I held)
Bed bath and Beyond(Shorted at 29.90, ran to 36ish, back down to 27(soldit)
Lehman Bros(Shorted at 12.89, ran to 21, sold at 12(I was happy, I know I know, I messed up)
Mer(Shorted at 32, ran to 36, sold at 30)
SPY(Shorted at 132, ran to 144, sold at 131)(Weak hand that time)
KBH(Shorted at 17.50(kept raising short, ended at 20.89)) Covered at 19.50.
I can go on and on and on.
You see, a stocks direction is usually obvious(these days anyway), but the market wont let you take easy money, you have to be able to wait out the gay surges the other way.)
So......
Sirius.... Bought at 1.84(new buy in).... went to .60 cents(or further)....
SELLING AT $2.50-$3.00(half) balance went its on the moon.
This would be my first mistake of the year. I waited 3 months for that SPY to turn around, but I refused to close out a loss when I know I was right. Never know when it will turn.
That's the whole game right there. Sometimes (or most of the time in my experience) you need time to allow your strategy to pay off. I've said this before here. That's exactly how the big money managers make their money--through time. Even the big managers go underwater for a few months but they look at their timeframes Q to Q and even year to year not week to week. Hey when it happens big for you in a few days, a week or two, great, but that happens rarely.
But you see the difference between Tavares and Relmor, one took a big loss unnecessarily and the other knows patience (no offense Tavares!) and has gains--though he had to work for those gains. The only real time an investor should jump, is when he or she is day trading and establishes a tight stop loss ahead of time--usually only 5% tops. Then, (example)if you buy in at 3.00, it goes .15 down and you are OUT-- and you do move on to the next one. There you don't want to tie your money up becuae you are only intersted in playing dips and haircuts or shorting peaks. But your loss is minimal and since you're a day trader, your accounting is mark to market and you don't have the 3K restriction...garbage in garbage out. But if you allow a loss past that 5%, you are technically in a different mode and are much wiser to wait out the downturn because that's how Wall Street is. They know when you come in and they will almost always test your fortitude--which most fail and which is how MM's and companies take fancy vacations and buy new summer homes at your expense.
Look at today. How many people are frustrated that the NAS is +80 and SIRI is flat? Classic strategy to get more jumpers!!
check this one out, mother of all shorts CALM.
i think it's the one brandon or tyler was talking about on one of the radio shows but couldent say the name...was a good play if ya knew when to play it.
this article has got me scared
The public can offer the FCC feedback on the Inquiry through December 9. The docket number is 08-172.
arstechnica.com/news.a...
I for one trust Mel...
I don't care what you ney sayers think. I personally don't mind the stock price fall because Soon Mel will be forced to act even if he does not want to... which i'm sure he has somthing up his sleeve. We will have to see next week and maybe into the next QTR.
Right now, almost everyone agrees that there are too many outstanding shares for this company and that's a main reason this stock is so low. One of the easiest ways to fix the problem is a reverse split. I don't want one and no one else does... but if it hangs around these levels for long it will be forced to almost. Plus for a company this size... there are just too many shares out there... The company isn't worth those extra shares... YET!! reverse split might help for now...
I'm going to rock out to Guitar Hero 3 until SIRI is back above $4... Wish me luck
Guitar Hero is still calling my name.....
Maybe I can sign a contract with SIRI and you all can listen to me rock out!!!!
: D
: )
ooopss.....
Hank was having a seizure on TV during his interview after the vote... He didn't know what just happened
1. The stock price is going nowhere until the financing gets done. That is the only reason the price is so low. No one connected to this stock or company planned on the current state of financial mess facing the country. So it can't be blamed on anyone. That's why, for every day your government waits to reinstill confidence in the credit market, that's one more day SIRI will be flat to down. But it's happening, and you've got to deal with it. Trust me, Mel planned on having the financing done already. What has happened to the stock to this degree has been unavoidable and out of the company's control. Mel will refuse to do any deal @ 14% - rightfully so. That's bad money after bad. His hands are tied and he has no choice but to wait--regardless of how low the stock price goes. I have said before here, it could see .40's before it's all over so you've got to prepare for it. SIRI has seen those levels in their past. But this is all tied to the financing (or lack of it). None of us could have predicted this situation.
2. The Motley Fool article about reverse splitting is stupid. Click on one of the links below the article and it will take you to an article in March where they were calling for SIRI to do the same thing. This guy is an idiot and a captain obvious. Mel knows reversing now would be a mistake. Any reverse will wait until until '09 when the company is healthy (if they even choose to do it). Any "Fool" knows a company reversing when it is in trouble is suicide. Think: throwing a boatload of blood and chum in shark infested waters. Mel would never give more shorts that kind of softball to hit out of the park. Non starter.
3. These are dark days for SIRI. The darkest they will face for quite some time. Lucky us to be along for the ride! NOT! But again, which one of us could have predicted this financial mess the country is in? Call it an act of god, deus ex machina, whatever you want. Unavoidable. SIRI is among the group of any companies needing financing right now who are getting hammered. This is classic kick you when you're down Wall Street. Look at any of the investment banks, Fannie, Freddie--some 100+ year old institutions that withstood The Great Depression, wars, whatever, brought to their knees for being caught overleveraged--poof and they're gone. As soon as the sharks see you are in trouble they will try to pound you into oblivion. It's a typical lynch mob mentality--they don't care who you are, you're just dead meat. So SIRI is in trouble and they are taking blows. Simple as that. But the reason they will not go out of business like the others is because there is a remedy for what ails them and they do have time. The others did not because of the rules--in their case, no proper capitalization = instant demise. Not true for SIRI. However, in the meantime their stock price makes it look like the others.
4. I can only suggest that if you are worried about things and watch the price daily, you need to asess your fortitude. A time like this is NOT for the faint of stomach day to day. I realize it's tough to watch but if you are "in" for the duration and committed, and can't bear to see it down another penny, just don't watch for a while. It could get a little uglier before it gets better. But it will get better as soon as the credit crisis passes in the U.S. and SIRI can cut a decent deal. It's not far off. My gut says, Mel and company have already secured the facility, they are just waiting to pull the trigger when the rates start coming down and the facility can offer the rate. Right now all hands are tied--believe it. Just a matter of time. All I will say is whenever that news hits the wire and SIRI suddenly is a company without a looming refi issue, they are going to be shot out of a canon higher. Just because I've seen similar before, they could easily shoot up into the 1.30's, - 1.60's in the euphoria of short covering and piling in. MM bids will be insane. They will easily be up $1 or more. However, this will happen in afterhours/premarket so you will have to be "in" to catch it.
5. If you just can't stand it anymore, best to jump and save your sanity. Most people here I believe to have time. If this is your rent money, you're in the wrong place at the wrong time and should asess your needs. Or as the other guy did, jump and go into NCC! However, when it's all said and done, he'll probably wind up effectively even when all is said and done because he took the loss--only if his loss was extensive it will take a few years to reconcile it due to the 3K cap. And of course, you'll miss the upside here, but at least you'll still be sane and still alive for heaven sakes!
Thanks for your continued positive and informative posts. After reading your posts...I'm no longer standing on the ledge of the 17th floor. I've come down to the 10th!!!!!!
Killer
Do you print your own cash!!!
I think I just saw Aristotle at the emergency clinic getting your foot removed from his ass. That was a NASTY beat down. You might as well change you Pseudo again... Your no longer welcome back there again. Great post...
On your comment above, The 3rd section where you said it was unlucky for us to be along for the ride....
I think it's great luck for many of us... This stock is a bargain and many of us know it... The lower it goes the better for now, because it's not going up until the refinance like you said, so this is a perfect opportunity to stock up on this company at these prices and wait......
" Fred Norris of "The Howard Stern Show" recently did an interview with Suburbarazzi on a smattering of topics. Nothing earth shattering was revealed, but it's a fun read for fans.
Among the items discussed, Fred gives his view of whether or not Howard would re-sign his contract with Sirius:
"Three years from now is three years from now. You know what? I think he was thinking he was going to leave radio before he went to satellite. He could be a man of his word this time and walk away at the top, but I think he’d be sitting at home for six months and maybe wondering, ‘Hmm, maybe I could just do this show like once a week,’ and before you know it, who knows? We’ll see. The future remains to be seen."
Hey here's a thought: in three years, if in fact we'll be able to get Internet Radio in the car, what's to stop Stern from starting up his own "Howard Radio" stream?"
and this one from Fortune
" But the shock jock may be in for a shock of his own when his deal expires in 2010. Heavy spending by Sirius (SIRI) and XM Satellite Radio (XMSR), its chief rival and potential merger partner, on stars like Stern have come at a hefty price: While millions of radio enthusiasts have signed up in recent years, both Sirius and XM are deeply in debt, cash-strapped and suffering an ominous sales slowdown. . . . Similar battles played about for other top draws. Sirius, for instance, is paying the National Football League $220 million for an exclusive seven-year deal and Nascar $107.5 million for a five-year contract. XM is shelling out $650 million for its exclusive 11-year Major League Baseball pact."
You will note that the whole capitalization of the company today is not worth much more than the value of those three contracts. The merger of two money-losing companies is nothing new in business. It usually results in one great big money losing company!
The only good news is that sometime between now and the end of 09 will come the chance to break even for many who bought in late and have a low share price. Unfortunately, they will see it as something big to come and not get out in time. Just like late July brought that spike to 2.70, but only the lucky few got out then.
Good luck killer, but if you buy BAC, C, or JPM on the dips this month, you will make much more money over the next few years. The government has created an exclusive club. Those companies are in, and sirius is not.
[
Looks like im going to have to play guitar hero for a while... : \
I dono though there is somthing about smashing a plastic instrument to your favorite rock song that makes me optimistic about SIRI
(lol)
If the market did have an affect on SIRI... We would want the NASDAQ to drop about another 500 pts.
lol
Seems that whenever NASDAQ goes down 1.5% SIRI is up 15%
"Market sucks, put your money in SIRI till its levels out."..."Ok, Jim"
It's nice.
I have a 1hr 20 min drive to school in the morning and back in the afternoon every day....
I love Sat Rad.!!.
Everytime we do it goes up, then farther down again...
(hehe)
You're in the bottom right now. I've said before, the bottom not one number. Yes, when all is said and done, one number will be THE low, but suffice it to say the stock is scraping knuckes. Doesn't matter if it's .57, .50, .45, .65, .75--all the bottom floor man.
And from before, yes, I'm sure you know I just meant that it hasn't been pretty riding this one down. Fine to be here now picking up at garage sale prices, but the ride has been a little hairy. Unless it's been fun for you???
It hasn't been fun...
Even though I thought I was getting in at a good price when I first bought about 5,000 shares at about $1.20, I still knew there was potential down swing left, but I took a chance.
And now that it's gone down,
1.) I haven't lost nearly as much money as most people on this form due to my average.
2.) I have waited so long to start Avg. down that i'm picking this stock up as you said at garage sale prices... bringing my avg. down tremendously...
So... all in all it hasn't been all that bad for me...(I planed to be in it for the long hauld anyways)
PLUS! It's been fun talking to you guys, and trying to share my comic relief. lol
It hasn't been fun...
Even though I thought I was getting in at a good price when I first bought about 5,000 shares at about $1.20, I still knew there was potential down swing left, but I took a chance.
And now that it's gone down,
1.) I haven't lost nearly as much money as most people on this form due to my average.
2.) I have waited so long to start Avg. down that i'm picking this stock up as you said at garage sale prices... bringing my avg. down tremendously...
So... all in all it hasn't been all that bad for me...(I planed to be in it for the long hauld anyways)
PLUS! It's been fun talking to you guys, and trying to share my comic relief. lol
I will sell my shares at $10. Not a penny less!!!!!
Go Mel!!!! Go Big Blue Dog!!!!!
Where do I start with you?? You know I like ya, but man, you create work for the defenders of the dog!
What? No new sats? No other players? Quoting Fred Norris (a guy who tried to change his name to Eric)??? Dude, it's all a bit weak. Doesn't it dawn on you that Howard was already going to retire before SIRI? that means he's not going to be around to much longer no matter what. Do you realize how long he's been doing his gig? Or how old he is? Or how much money he has? Dude, color him gone very soon. And now Scores is closing, or closed, so he won't be far behind! (lol). And don't fret, 3 years from now, Howard will be only a part of the solid SIRI draw. Yes, he's still a main pillar right now for the company but keep in mind his schtick is for a limited audience. SIRI wants to be and will be broadening their audience scope over the next few years anyway. But least of all, now that Howard subs have Satrad, do you think if he leaves they will just all discontinue? I would guess again on that--consumer habit numbers just don't support you. Sure you you'll lose some, but in 3 years, there will be more content to keep most of them happy.
C'mon jimmy. You know Satrad is not for a boatload of players...it's a specialty space. How many players compete with DISH? Have you checked their stock price lately? And btw...SIRI's main base has always been and always will be the car. Being a source of revenue for every car manufacturer and a standard install for them (every one including Toyota) will alone ensure their existence in the future--esp considering EVERY car on the road needs to be replaced into a hybrid or electric or hydrogen orr nat gas or whatever the new standard will be. Heard of PEAK OIL?? Further, by adjusting price points to make it more enticing for EVERY car owner to activate the service (remember Mel's direction is to be the Walmart price model), there is tremendous upside in that segment of the business alone--no surprise there.
SIRI bashers and detractors (and lynch mob members) should look at what's real, not what illusions look real right now...man, people are soooo gullible!
It's all good and ditto on your last point...
I've cited this several times before (esp because I was in SIRI then too)...it doesn't seem to sink in...
Good post on The Fool. I would rant all over that guy except for the fact I refuse to register (which numbers help them attract advertisers). That is one of the more pathetically written articles on SIRI yet. It reads like a high schol kid wrote it. lol.
Oh and I love the poster who refutes MM's manipulating a stock. Yeah, that NEVER happens!!!!! What a loser!!!!!
Glad if I've helped a little.Just keep in mind SIRI will probably be a spec play still for sometime....so plenty of opportunity to still believe in the company but take your gains and rebuy in on dips from time to time..Even after they extricate from this mess they're in now, they will remain on the shorts bullseye list for many months to come--better you get the money than them!!
He should get his own SIRI Channel
I swear I would buy 15 subscriptions so I can listen to it everywhere without a hassel!!
" You know what will be good on this burger.. A HAM SANDWHICH..
and instead of a bun let's use two doughnuts, that way we can have it for breakfast"
LMAO !!!! I swear it would bring more subscribers than Howard
You should get your own channel, Inbetween Jim Gaffigan's Stand up you can do your skit... hehe, I would love that channel. It would be all 25 of my presets lol
Trading elsewhere soon, to average down more.
This is a long term investment on my part, and I'll hang on to the leash of the blue dog for quite a while. I will, from time to time, feed blue a few more shares. The postings on this and other boards regarding the frustration of getting the "Best of" bodes well! It sounds like the Blue Dog has had puppies, and there are quite a few takers!!!
You guys and ladies better hope your congresspeople come through for you this week. I think the Senate vote is tonight and all indications are a pass (they actually get it), and then House of "Richards" get it tomorrow morning. If the House blows this again, look for SIRI down another .15 to .20. Not to mention the Dow down 1000. Will be bloody. It's all on them now.
Also... Rep. Shelby = worm scum
Wireless internet in the car will not take over, its not as good as satellite, speed, signal , anything.
And on to your terrible worst lies of the day.
Sirius....ITS IN. Its an IN company. Why? Media company that access's millions of listeners a day. Jessie Jackson(33 1/3 degree mason) has his agenda imbedded into the content.(minority owned stations(bs, they are TPTB controlled stations). Mel is an insiders, you are not. So you cant know if he is or not. Im going by his past employers, contacts, sucess, your going by hot air.
Fans of Sirius(GM, Toyota, Ford, BMW, Major Leage baseball, NASCAR, all sports on Sirius have a vested interest that they suceed. No satellite radio, NO MONEY. LOL. GM wants Satellite radio(aahh, ur car has an internet connection(most peoples reaction would be o, good, now I can fill out my american idol ballot while im driving). Most people woulndt use it, but they would flip a switch that played Howard, their favorite band, or their own created station by songs they downloaded from Sirius. Your points are illogical.
They arent I? OOO, they are in. Clear Channel is "in" and they lost to them. Combined companies can survive much better than apart. The figures they gave were low balls, even one analyist said they were "conservative, but was "forced" to lower guidance and the target price because of them. See, your a lier. And I am the lie police.
1. The government is being controlled by higher powers.(True)
2. The government will do whats best for big business and foreign debt holders.
3. The government will do whats best for the people never, and will only keep them at bay long enough to acquire more power and control.
If you agree with the above 3 statements, lets analysis why the FCC took so long to pass the merger.
As any crime scene(anaology only? or is it?) you have to analysis the evidence at hand. You must determine motive.
Lets take some facts.
Before the merger Sirius was trading in a range of 2.40 to 3.15ish, for a very long time(easy to assume a range has been set).
After the merger is been trading at .60 cents. Credit conditions are the same(dont believe the media, nothing changed, this situation has been getting worse for months, and everyone on wall street, banks, and government has know this).
If the merger happened faster , the perception of the economy was MUCH DIFFERENT in Jan, Fed, etc.... If it passes then, the stock takes off and is harder to keep down(most optimism) to now(most pessimism)
If you can say the FCC delay caused the stock price to drop, who benefited the most? Who benefited more from this "crime".
1. NAB(In the end no, they couldnt get their deal done, and they went private after spending millions of dollars for nothing).
2. Governement(they took a beating and loss even more credibility with the handling of this.(other than kickbacks and campaign contributions, Id say the government didnt make anything(they do like consolidation in industry, and less competition(so they kind of win.)
3. Sirius stockholders(No)
4. XM stockholders(no)
5. Sirius debt holders(NO, ONLY IF SIRIUS AGREES TO LOWER THE CONVERT PRICE) Old debt.
6. New debt for the merger(completely paid for by XM stock loss and the new convert price(new debt holders win big!!!!)
7. Future debt holders win as long as the SP stays low until they have to refinance. They will try to use it as leverage to gain an advantage in talks with Sirius. They want to renew the bonds and lower the convert price(old debt WINS NOW, as long as price stays low.)
8. Apollo group and all existing institutions win(new buy in thats so low, it would be easy to get a 4 bagger out of it.
9. Sirius the company itself. They can make it work for them, exciting new stock interest, getting "buddies in cheap" and the banks who will finance them(Mel works with them to keep price low, and the MM).
So my conclusion would be with so much big money gaining an advantage with it dropping, I would have to say the FCC did what it was told to do, with complete help and understanding from the companies themselves. I always got the feeling that the NAB was going up against something they couldnt understand(passing of the guard). Once Jessie Jackson and the Georgetown partners got involved it was all over for the NAB, and terristrial radio. The new king of radio is Sirius, and they SKy is the limit. We dont win yet, but we can go along for the ride if we wait.
If they screw the common over, too many losers. You see its a hard market to make money in these days, banks and ivnestment companies, etc.. like sure things. This is a sure thing(spec stock wtih big volume)THEY LOVE THAT!!!. But dont sell now, or ull miss the ride. Might want to try to improve you buyin price, but i wouldnt ever not have my toes in this one.
Good luck!!
It is a very rare time we live in. The mood on the market right now will not be revisited for a long time, nor has been here since the 01 crash(that was a joke compared to this). The news of the refinancing deal is the one thing that holds this stock down. No one thinks they cant make it long term(no one with a brain, Im Not Jim Cramer). They are resting all their negative on one event, the 09 debt refinancing. The shorts and manipulators are putting all their eggs LITEREALLY in one basket. They are trying a bit lately to diversify their fears of this company. I dont know if they will be sucessful, but Id have to think in part, news of that financing will send the stock up at least 50%. Now, if its trading at .80 cents, we can look for the 1.32 range again, and to hold that till the next quarter looks good, etc...
This is a clear path. They are giving you a direction of support. The news will drive this stock now, not sentiment. The shorts are all gone(except the permenent ones(only the manipulators left(mm as SL62 calls them, I called them the wall of shorts(actually could be longs, I might have been wrong their, either way when the wall gets scared this stock will move. And it will move on news.
If the news goes our way, we win big time. If not, we get humble pie.
What keeps people from buying penny stocks with volume like this? ONLY FEAR OF BANKRUPCY. Remove just THAT, and LOOK OUT FOLKS, HERE COMES PAYDAY!!!! YYYYYEEEEHHHHHAAWWW. They cant keep that fear up for much longer. We will have our day, and I will feast on the liver of my short pals!! lol
I feel for you. You may not be rewarded until they get those shares back, or buy back shares. Or their subs get to the 25 million range. Id average down or sell high, and buy back lower with more shares. Either way, get busy.
Thanks again for your info.......You alone have made the trip from $1.30 to .60 bearable and not suicidal.
The one thing that I've seen you mention but not completely tear apart is the possibility of us common holders getting wiped out so SIRI can live on.
Why do you believe this is not likely to happen?????
>>3. The government will do whats best for the people never, and will only keep them at bay long enough to acquire more power and control.
<<
This is easily verified in the voting concept itself. We the People are asked to vote, yet those votes are worthless because the Electoral College votes are the only ones that matter (proved in the 2000 election for the first time in history (ooops, the Founding Father's banked that would never happen!!)--biggest lie of 'em all!
>>2. The government will do whats best for big business and foreign debt holders.<<
We owe China $500B. They own us. The largest investors in the U.S. stock market are foreign and from the Middle East. If they were to pull their money out of this market, America would break in two.
I'm not sure how FCC was complicit other than being loyal to NAB. I think it was more NAB influencing FCC knowing it would kill the stock, with the hope it would kill the new company, which by most viewpoints has been on its way to happening--which is maybe your point. NAB = existence threatened. Now they are going to their hip pocket congressman to do that new bill getting their HD in every SIRI radio hoping it would cause SIRI hardship and confusion. I think great for SIRI, they'll sell more new radios plus finger touch, side by side comparisons will show how weak commercial radio is. Advantage SIRI there.
Agree on stock price kill to have SIRI in great position to negotiate, although I do think credit squeeze beginning in August has cause price to go lower than expected. I think expectation was 1.00 - 1.20, which by most standards is pathetically low for any company and still attractive for negotiations.
Either way SIRI gets it all done and normalizes in Q1 '09 (2.40 to 3.15ish). All in all, this turns out to be an exciting (like wearing fiberglass underwear kind of exciting) blip on the screen and SIRI gets back about their business without scars. Nobody ever talks about when SIRI was .45 in '03. For good reason because, nobody cares. Another blip on the screen and SIRI went about their business. As you say, all players get their pound of flesh and move on to the next arrangement and we wait for the ride.
NAB = losers
FCC = incompetents
SEC = incompetents
HOReps = idiots
FOOLS = losers
SIRI Detractors = trolls (relmor's good word)
SIRI = winners (In the name of justice)
Your question for Relmor is exactly the one I have been most worried about and ended up costing me $80k. I have not yet heard a good answer as to why this is not what Mel has in mind. Why in the hell else would Mel be so quiet since the merger? It makes absolutely no sense to me. This is a wonderful product and where are the corporate cheerleaders? How about some 15-second teaser commercials run on national TV to begin to set the stage for the post-merger powerhouse that this company should become? I still believe that Mel is keeping quiet so that he clears his conscience and can come back later and tell all of us (past) shareholders that in his way he warned us to get out and to not blame him but to blame the FCC, et al. I hope that I am wrong but what other plausible reason can there be for him not talking now when the stock is in a tailspin? I too believe that this stock is being manipulated like crazy. Why is the management team not openly talking about this? Wouldn't some press on this issue help us out? Why couldn't Mel come out and call for all of us to start a letter writing campaign to expose this atrocity? I guess one could continue to argue that Mel has some stake in the ugly financing that he did to appease some "group" as pay(back) for future support of his company or some other like reasoning. In any case, apologists for Mel at this point make no sense. If I am proven wrong, and BK never comes to fruition, I will still wonder why Mel allowed us to suffer the incredible stress of watching this stock take a beating for such a long period of time.
Please Relmor or anyone else, your thoughts on Siriusly Depressed's question.
Thanks.
On Oct 01 05:42 PM siriusly depressed wrote:
> Relmor,
>
> Thanks again for your info.......You alone have made the trip from
> $1.30 to .60 bearable and not suicidal.
>
> The one thing that I've seen you mention but not completely tear
> apart is the possibility of us common holders getting wiped out so
> SIRI can live on.
>
> Why do you believe this is not likely to happen?????
>
A few thoughts for you.
1. No advertising because not the right time. SIRI was saving every penny in Q3 to make numbers--tough Q for EVERY company to make numbers. Mel was looking out for you there.
2. No communication because that's not a smart thing for companies to do. It looks weak and desperate. PLUS, Mel knows what he's doing. I've posted his bio here before--wiki it and you'll get a better sense that he's a winner not a loser or scam artist. Does he know everything? No. He's also learing his space as he goes. So far, they have done a good job of guiding the company thus give no reason not to trust them now just because things look a little bleak. Did you think the Giants would win all games on the road and then win the Super Bowl last year? Neither did most people. Have faith.
3. Wiping out sharehlders/BK...not a chance. Too much on the line for Mel's reputation and the companies future. ESPECIALLY in this sensitive space of subscription base. Kmart? OK. United? OK. FAO? OK. SIRI, no way. They would lose subs right and left--which is their life line. They have struggled this far to make their name. Do you really think they want it now to be mud just because times are a little tough and the stock is .60? I've seen much worse.
4. You probably didn't catch my or Relmor's post. The FINANCING is "the" cloud on the stock and SIRI, like most compaines looking for refi credit are waiting until the smoke clears a little. Look at credit spreads like Libor--higher than ever before right now, look at 3Yr Treasury. There are your answers and why Mel is waiting like everyone else. Right now patience wins the minute, the hour and the day.
Hope this helps...
I can accept your analysis on your points 1.) & 4.). Re. 2.), A simple positive statement or two since the merger would be justifiable under the circumstances particularly having been under a gag order up to the time of the merger. I believe it could have been done in such a way to say that yes, they did take a beating in getting the merger done but they survived and the company is going to soar in the not too distant future. This clearly IMHO would not have been seen as weak or desperate since it was a fact that they took a beating but have succeeded in getting the merger accomplished. Re. 4.), I agree that they would lose subs, but in the long run having the burden of the incredible debt lifted would allow them to do many more new and exciting things that would bring in many new subscribers and maybe, with a little luck over time, some of the ones that canceled. Certainly there would be a chance to buy the new stock and eventually make money on it which ultimately could offset the tremendous losses that many of us have suffered.
On Oct 01 06:35 PM sl62 wrote:
> Observer...
>
> A few thoughts for you.
>
> 1. No advertising because not the right time. SIRI was saving every
> penny in Q3 to make numbers--tough Q for EVERY company to make numbers.
> Mel was looking out for you there.
>
> 2. No communication because that's not a smart thing for companies
> to do. It looks weak and desperate. PLUS, Mel knows what he's doing.
> I've posted his bio here before--wiki it and you'll get a better
> sense that he's a winner not a loser or scam artist. Does he know
> everything? No. He's also learing his space as he goes. So far, they
> have done a good job of guiding the company thus give no reason not
> to trust them now just because things look a little bleak. Did you
> think the Giants would win all games on the road and then win the
> Super Bowl last year? Neither did most people. Have faith.
>
> 3. Wiping out sharehlders/BK...not a chance. Too much on the line
> for Mel's reputation and the companies future. ESPECIALLY in this
> sensitive space of subscription base. Kmart? OK. United? OK. FAO?
> OK. SIRI, no way. They would lose subs right and left--which is their
> life line. They have struggled this far to make their name. Do you
> really think they want it now to be mud just because times are a
> little tough and the stock is .60? I've seen much worse.
>
> 4. You probably didn't catch my or Relmor's post. The FINANCING is
> "the" cloud on the stock and SIRI, like most compaines looking for
> refi credit are waiting until the smoke clears a little. Look at
> credit spreads like Libor--higher than ever before right now, look
> at 3Yr Treasury. There are your answers and why Mel is waiting like
> everyone else. Right now patience wins the minute, the hour and the
> day.
>
> Hope this helps...
Mel did come out after the merger and appeared on Cramer's show and talked about the deal and it's components. He also on that show vowed to beat the short and, "make them pay" I believe were his exact words. What I got from that appearance from him was he felt bad about how it had to get done but that it was his only option to thwart NAB and risk no deal at all. And he wants to make it right. Selling out current shareholders is not his concept (that I got). He also bought 2M shares not long after that.
Last point on this is don't forget the company is driving the boat not the so-called pundits. They have time and will use it wisely rather than panicing and just saying let's just do a BK and f everybody so we can have a better stock price and no debt. Does that really make sense to you? That's not Mel's style. Also do you know the history of SIRI? Do know how they started and that their stock was .40 once before in '03? Check out a historical prices table. No re-org and no reverse there either. Not the company's style. IMHO...
Also... the stock price was 2.29 on July 28. It's not been exactly 60 days and change since then most of which was spent still around the 1.50 re-price of 7.29... 60 days is not an eternity in Wall Street time by any stretch.
Good luck. NCC is not a bad trade. But just watch it on the news. Shorts will be looming to ruin your day when you think it's all up up up...
On Oct 01 07:21 PM sl62 wrote:
> Observer...Re: your thoughts..
>
> Mel did come out after the merger and appeared on Cramer's show and
> talked about the deal and it's components. He also on that show vowed
> to beat the short and, "make them pay" I believe were his exact words.
> What I got from that appearance from him was he felt bad about how
> it had to get done but that it was his only option to thwart NAB
> and risk no deal at all. And he wants to make it right. Selling out
> current shareholders is not his concept (that I got). He also bought
> 2M shares not long after that.
>
> Last point on this is don't forget the company is driving the boat
> not the so-called pundits. They have time and will use it wisely
> rather than panicing and just saying let's just do a BK and f everybody
> so we can have a better stock price and no debt. Does that really
> make sense to you? That's not Mel's style. Also do you know the history
> of SIRI? Do know how they started and that their stock was .40 once
> before in '03? Check out a historical prices table. No re-org and
> no reverse there either. Not the company's style. IMHO...
>
> Also... the stock price was 2.29 on July 28. It's not been exactly
> 60 days and change since then most of which was spent still around
> the 1.50 re-price of 7.29... 60 days is not an eternity in Wall Street
> time by any stretch.
GREAT CHOICE! Same here. I made some tidy profits today on a few other tech plays and it's all going into SIRI tomorrow...
And of you all who still doubt this company (i'm not jim cramer)...read this. All 4 pages. I just wrote about this on the blog today. Not jimmy, your goose is cooked, I suggest you start thinking about covering that short dude!!
www.thestreet.com/_aol...
It's like a gambler going to the casino. I HATE when I see a guy at the 3-card poker table sweating because he just blew all of his money and he's down to the last 50 bucks. Don't gamble if you know you could come home broke. I think SIRI is a much better gamble and I'm "sirius" when I said I'm selling my other stocks and buying all SIRI. Am I stupid? NO, because I can afford to do it and I will ride out this low tide for now... someday I'll have a nice story to tell my grandkids.