Sirius XM at Work - Largest Pool of Potential Subscribers 221 comments
-
Font Size:
-
Print
- TweetThis
Radio is really not a very complicated business. You want to offer something that no one else can, to attract as many listeners as possible. Sirius XM (SIRI) has certainly nailed this part down! The biggest problem that Sirius XM seems to have not figured out is where and when people actually listen to radio.
I know from personal experience that I rarely listen to radio at home. I always listen in my car, yet the time spent in my car is minimal. Sirius XM has, up to now, primarily sought subscribers from those people who listen in their cars.
Most people, in my opinion listen to radio AT WORK. Over the past two weeks, one observant reader of SiriusBuzz has pointed several times that Mad Dog Radio is not available on the Internet, and that many people are not in their cars between 2 to 5 P.M. Which brings me back to this subject that I am adamant about.
There are over 11 million construction workers in the United States. Carpenters, Painters, Electricians, Plumbers, Sheet-rockers, Masons and Landscapers. Do you know what these people do all day, every day? They listen to RADIO! They don’t listen to iPods. Instead they listen to the cheapest radios produced and sold at the highest possible price because they are made for a construction environment. Milwaukee, DeWalt and Bosch all make specific work-site radios for tradespeople, yet none of them are equipped with Satellite Radio. Can you guess what auto mechanics listen to at work? That’s right, radio.
Most of America does not have the luxury of sitting at a desk all day or driving in their cars. They work! In my opinion, this is the largest pool of potential subscribers and they have been ignored for the most part.
There are nearly 70 million full-time employed adults at work during an average work day. That’s nearly 6 times the combined annual US Auto Sales. At 5 PM more than 28,500,000 are still working. At 6 PM 16,100,000 are still working.
Rather than all this talk of iPods and high-tech devices, I think Sirius XM should reach out to the working man and woman. The middle class, rather than the BMW buyer. This was Stern's audience. Not the Mercedes Benz buyer. And people who work are the ones who can afford Satellite Radio. These are also the people that advertisers want to reach.
Position: Long SIRI
Related Articles
|
This article has 221 comments:
I hope the advertising/marketing guys at Sirius are reading these posts..... I for one am getting sick of watching this stock get pummeled....
Great insight!
This is also end of the quarter "Black Out" for pumping from company officers, and the country is in a "Financial Crisis" and isn't listening for what to buy, at least this week. Oct 6th is around the corner and the launching of new products, and financial updates should happen during that week. Let's hope that the markets in general will stabilize and float all boats.
TELL YOUR FRIEND TOO!
I WILL SAY THIS AGAIN AND AGAIN!
TO SAVE THIS STOCK THEY NEED SUBSCRIBERS!
BUY YOUR SELF A SIRI OR XM RADIO AND SUBSCRIPTION!
THE HIGHER THE NUMBERS THE FASTER THEY WILL PAY OFF THE DEBT AND THE MORE SUBSCRIBERS THEY SEE, INVESTORS WILL SEE TOO!
BUY A SUBSCRIPTION TO SIRIUS XM! IF YOU CARE ABOUT YOUR INVESTMENT! TELL ALL UR FRIENDS TO GET ONE!
Does anyone know what happened with the financing conference the other day... that no obvious news came out for??
Lies, more lies, please, I need them. There like food to me.
Hey everyone, did you hear, USB ports are going to take out Sirius?
Did you hear? The sound of a volcano erupting is going to take out Sirius? When you say Wifi is going to take out Sirius, I hear...
"Im dumb and dont know what Im talking about"
O come one, where do i start.
Thats like saying, when they start charging $13 a month for my cable that goes from my car charger to my phone, im going to buy it and sell my sirius stock.
When I get to pay $13 a month for my ability to acess my VCAST, which I already have, cause I pay $15 a month for it, im going to call up Verizon and offer an additional $13 a month for something I can already do.
Hey did you hear? Cable companies are going to start charging you per inch of cable used. Crazy!!!!
I want someone on here to tell me the best and most reliable wireless media format? Most accessible across this country, with the least breaks in service? Now I want you to tell me how your gonig to listen to your car internet radio camping in the rockies. Or driving to LA even. Go ahead, Ill wait.
Only time will tell. I even at the age of 78 do have HOPE for the nation that I love and all true believers. Sorry if I mix politics and religion. It is about time this nation reverses course and returnsto God for his blessings.
Well Mr MEL, how many other gas stations have your Rep guys / gals reached to be new subs.
Or if they are lazy, may be mailing to all gas stations who play music over head 24/7, you may get few 100,000 subs and free advertizing for SiriusXM to all those people with cars pumping gas and have radios in there not activated yet
go bears
If you sold your shares for 10000, use all 10000 to rebuy lower, dont buy the same number of shares back at a cheaper price. That banks money, but it doesnt help your real buy in too much.
THIS MAKES ME SICK! PLEASE VOTE OUT EVERY CONGRESSMAN/WOMAN WHO VOTED THIS BILL DOWN TODAY. THEY ARE DUMB, STUPID AND WORTHLESS. THEY ARE SMUG, DESPOTIC AND ONLY WORRIED ABOUT THEIR OWN SKINS AND BEING RE-ELECTED. THEY'RE MAKING YOU PAY, NOW PLEASE MAKE THEM PAY AND VOTE NO! MAKE THEM GET A REAL JOB AND PAY THEIR OWN BENEFITS, INSURANCE AND LETS SEE HOW THEY LIKE IT.
Now back to SIRI. Hey, what can you do? We're caught up in an eddy right now. There is no logic, no rhyme, no reason. Nothing makes sense anymore. If any of you lived through the market the days and weeks after 9/11, that's where we are. I was in then too. Your best bet from here is don't jump but also don't bring any new money in. This stock is beaten down and left for dead. This is the bottom but the bottom has a range. We could see .40 before it's over. Don't try to pick the bottom and just wait until your current investment comes back. It would be a mistake to bring any new money in the market right now--unless you have a realistic time window and promise not to cry or whine when the stock goes down from here. For now, The House of Reps has ruined your short-term future because they're fat cat idiot politicians who make a good salary, have full benefits, and have access to major perks. Why should they worry? They're happy to let the market tank and then go on holiday. But it's not SIRI's fault that this is happening. All you can do now is wait and let the politicians play king. The way to get them back is by spreading the word and voting them out of office .
look at history for that one:
month open high low close Avg volume
Apr-03 0.77 0.82 0.6 0.74 18,835,500
May-03 0.75 1.6 0.61 1.6 101,093,000
Jun-03 1.83 2.39 1.6 1.69 112,285,900
Jul-03 1.68 1.94 1.6 1.78 36,097,000
Aug-03 1.81 2.06 1.4 1.68 36,273,000
Sep-03 1.6 2.08 1.55 1.82 40,419,700
Oct-03 1.84 2.68 1.83 2.35 81,775,100
Nov-03 2.38 2.42 1.88 2.08 43,570,000
Dec-03 2.16 3.47 2.08 3.16 59,007,600
Jan-04 3.35 4.2 2.65 2.7 99,495,700
Feb-04 2.76 3.29 2.61 2.94 56,897,200
Mar-04 2.98 3.4 2.8 3.4 45,083,900
Apr-04 3.43 4.17 3.12 3.3 69,988,400
Surprisingly the time frame is very similar.. .After the May '09 issues is done ..... I would just be repeating others on this blog.
Run Blue Dog Run...
DON'T BE FOOLED WHEN YOU HEAR CONGRESS IS PROTECTING THE PEOPLE (THEIR "CONSTITUENTS,") AND THAT THEY WON'T BAIL OUT FAT CATS OF WALL STREET--THAT'S TOTAL BS. IT MAKES ME SICK. THIS IS THEIR PERSONAL VENDETTA TO TRY TO "STICK IT TO WALL STREET," LOOK LIKE HEROES AND "THEY THINK" SAVE THEIR JOBS--THAT'S IT. DON'T THEY KNOW ALMOST ALL THEIR "CONSTITUENTS" OWN STOCKS, HAVE MORTGAGES? WE HAVE TO NOW SHOW THEM HOW WRONG THEY ARE...THEY VOTED NO ON YOU... VOTE NO ON THEM!!! DON'T FORGET, WHEN THE GOVERNMENT SAYS THEY ARE HERE TO HELP "YOU", THAT'S WHEN IT'S TIME TO BE WORRIED!! THESE PUKES F'D UP. MAKE THEM PAY!!!
See, Sirius will do better long term with this vote. Still need to reinflate the economy, now they wont be able to borrow from the future to do it.
MONEY IS TOILET PAPER. We shouldnt have to pay interest on toilet paper!!
Time for rate cutes now(Sirius stock should love that) and FED printing presses to work overtime!! No worries , the FED wont let the economy go to shit, because they ARE the economy(money supply). Not only egg on their face, its being ousted as financial leaders and lenders. They wont give up the chicken coop for a little money flow problems. They can fix that, EASY. Just goodbye dollar, hello .60 and lower on the dollar index. Should be their by next March.
Here's an analogy. Financially, we are like a runaway train without brakes. There are only two options. Wait until the train runs out of track and crash and burn or keep shifting onto different existing tracks at shift points and build new track when necessary--and keep going. Since it has no real value, the 700B connected to this "plan" is nothing more than a moving part--it's the plan and the confidence it brings so everything else can work that's necessary. IMHO...
I think we're on the same page. Personally, I don't quite understand why we're not just cranking up the press anyway. Why are we screwing around with legislature now? Although if I remember correctly, Paulson submitted a 3 page request to that and congress freaked out and turned it into this monster. Man I hate politics. I agree, these clowns will pass something. Once again, I say we're victimized by more "strategy". The plan was reject today and "let's just see what happens." OK, idiots, today you got -777. Tomorrow probably -444. Then on Wed, they'll go holy s@#!, I guess they were right and pass it...
"Write on stocks trading
above $1 a share
We do not cover penny stocks due to concern for manipulation."
FDR Solves The Mortgage Crisis
The New Republic: There Are Lessons In How Roosevelt Dealt With A Similar Housing Situation 75 Years Ago
"Here should be an objective of Government itself, to provide at least as much assistance to the little fellow as it is now giving to the large banks and corporations."--Frankl... D. Roosevelt, April 7, 1932
The burgeoning home-mortgage crisis of 2007 bears an eerie resemblance to financial conditions 75 years ago, when FDR realized that only the U.S. government could forestall a wave of home foreclosures by directly helping "the little fellow." Today, homeowners can only hope that something akin to Roosevelt's New Deal answer to the home-loan crisis of the 1930s--direct lending to homeowners--is embraced by policymakers once again...
(for the rest):
www.cbsnews.com/storie...
CITI Maintains Buy On Sirius XM
By: Tyler Savery Monday, September 29, 2008 12:51 PM
On the heels of three reports issued on Friday, Citi’s Tony Wible has come out with his own report today, and joins Barclays in seeing upside potential in Sirius XM Radio. Wible reiterated his buy rating on the equity with a target price of $3.75.
“We believe SIRI’s recent stock performance is a reflection of auto weakness, credit issues, and diminishing consumer confidence. These overhanging issues have made it more difficult for investors to appreciate the SIRI’s long term value, which we now quantify using terminal cash flow analysis, long term sub estimates, and leverage assumptions.”
The analyst outlines three scenarios for investors to consider:
- Using a conservative 7x multiple on terminal cash flow per sub we believe SIRI would be worth $1.41 (20%penetration) in a worst case.
- The company could be worth up to $4.57 (50% penetration) in an aggressive case.
- A more realistic scenario (35% penetration by 2018) suggests that the stock is worth $3.00.
Wible does recognize near term issues that can weigh on the stock, identifying OEM sales and the re-financings as issues that give concern, but also as potential positives once auto sales turn around, and the refinancing happens. Wible has made a conservative assumption by calculating that the $300 mil due in Feb will be funded by an equity offering. He sees improvements in FCF due to merger synergies may put SIRI in a solid position to refinance the remaining $750 mil due later in 2009.
Position - Long SIRI
He says "the people stood up today and said no to the plan and their willing to risk 20% unemployment and being on hard times--just as long as they don't get stuck paying for the plan."
Where do they grow this guy? What a loser!
Lets say that the government invested in the (former) homeowner by subsidizing loans with affordable payment scales to those who are losing their homes to foreclosure. Even if a second chance offer is given to those whom already lost their home. This way the banks will receive a government backed promise of payment in full over the next 30 years and a full bore all in bailout will not be necessary. I am sure there are are more effective creative options to consider. So, I guess "let the chips fall where they may". As far as the congressional decision, I, like everyone else would like to see a quick fix happen so that we can all breathe a sigh of relief and get back to business as usual. But wouldn't this just be treating the symptom and not really attacking the root of the problem? I think by letting the meltdown continue, at least for the present, there will be a great weeding out of all the deficiencies, exposing those who have been able to camouflage themselves up to this point. A government bailout will definitely heal some surface wounds in the short term, but the filth and greed on Wall Street runs deep. Letting the demons slide now could mean, although difficult to fathom, far greater consequences and irreparable damage than we are currently facing. Remember, the only remorse of a convicted criminal is the regret of getting caught! There is no better time than the present to commence an annihilation of the cancer before it completely and inevitably consumes us!
ditto, good points...
I see gov action as just the beginning, to stablize the confidence in the people and he system.No confidence = big trouble for all. I think doing nothing and letting the market free fall and seek it's own level to clean out the bad is too risky. Further, I am not willing to risk facing an economy much worse than this--esp. when it's not necessary. We are on the verge of just grindng to a halt on consumer/business spending and lending. This can not be allowed to happen--even if there is a slim chance it might. Look at SIRI stock. We're all now underwater for who knows how long letting SIRI's water find it's own level. Like everyone, I'm out thousands but it doesn't feel real good. Now imagine we just let the economy do the same? How long will it take, how painful will it be, how many casualties will there be, defaults, bankruptcies, no credit. NO THANKS! Not when we are perfectly capable of action to stablize, then get to work purging the system of the blockages and dealing with the mortgage problem. Too many people (esp congressmen god bless 'em) think this is only about bailing out fat cats. It's really about saving the people themselves from some pretty serious pain. Too much distracting talk about fat cats!! At this stage, call it a form of insurance against something pretty bad. Isn't that what our country is built on--insurance? A plan passing is just the first step and not a panacea. If you look at Wall Street too btw, look at how it's already changed fo the better. The market has already cleaned house on itself pretty well. There ARE no more investment banks anymore... 100 Y/o institutions--poof, gone!. Who's left? just Morgan Stanley is left. Now you have super banks forming. Won't they have fat cats? Yes. Absolute power always corrupts absolutely...But the bad people congress is talking about now are gone--already out of business. Further, what, there are no fat cats in Washington? I just heard today an investigation was opened on Fannie and Freddie--rightfully so-they are just as responsible for this mess. These congressmen just need to get somethng out there to start with and allow it expand organically and address the issues as they are discovered. Instead they've now turned this into their usual inefficient slog of bickering, finger pointing, blaming the other, etc.. There are too many politicians thinking they know exactly what's there. Most of them voting don't even have a clue as to what exactly the problems are or how they were created. All they will keep saying is "nothing for the fat cats! Power to the people!" Ughh, it's so boring by now...
So what's the best way to attack the housing issues? That comes second. First is stabilize confidence! so people are ok with spending and lending money again. I don't under estimate that since it's the foundation of the entire system.
Money talks, bullcrap walks. Opportunity usually knocks. This time it's hitting the door with a sledgehammer.
This company is either going to go bankrupt, or soar eventually. I've got 38,000 shares now. I believe in free enterprise. I believe in democracy. I believe in technology. I believe in SIRI.
You assholes that jump up and down with glee every time SIRI drops lower so you can ridicule and berate people you think you're smarter than are in for some bad times. If you delight in the pain of others, you are not just a dirty, rotten, pile of dog crap...no.... you're a dirty, rotten, pile of dog crap that is about to run face first into a very bad karmatic experience.
***********
Bill Introduced to Have HD-Compatible Radio Receivers
Markey, who is also chairman of the House Subcommittee on Telecommunications and the Internet, introduced the ‘‘Radio All Digital Channel Receiver Act’’ over the weekend.
Sept 29, 2008
-By Jeffrey Yorke, Radio and Records
To the delight of radio broadcasters, Rep. Ed Markey (D-Mass.) took time off from Congress' bipartisan effort to save the economy to introduce a bill that would require satellite and radio receiver manufacturers to include in all receivers sold in the U.S. the ability to receive HD Radio signals. Markey, who is also chairman of the House Subcommittee on Telecommunications and the Internet, introduced the ‘‘Radio All Digital Channel Receiver Act’’ over the weekend.
"Millions of Americans today rely on local broadcast radio for news, public safety bulletins, sports, weather, traffic and other information,” said Markey. “As the broadcast radio industry migrates to digital broadcasting technology, this legislation will ensure that consumers are able to readily receive free service through consumer electronics systems that are otherwise receiving satellite digital audio radio and traditional AM or FM stations.”
Markey said his bill seeks to address the long-term competitive health of local radio “while ensuring that their local, digital services are readily received by radio consumers." The bill has the support of a bipartisan group of Energy and Commerce Committee House members who co-sponsored H.R. 7157, including Lee Terry (R-NE), Charlie Gonzalez (D-TX), Greg Walden (R-OR), Joe Wilson (R-SC), and Dan Burton (R-IN).
The Act also seeks to do what the FCC failed to do when it approved the historic merger between satcasters Sirius and XM on July 25. That was the time for the regulatory body to require radio manufacturers to require HD Radio capability be included on all satellite receivers, believes FCC Commissioner Jonathan Adelstein. During a Sept. 19 commissioner’s breakfast at the NAB Radio Show/R&R Convention in Austin, the commissioner, an opponent of the merger, played down the commission’s recent official public inquiry which seeks comment on making forcing HD Radio technology be included on satellite receivers and expressed doubt that the commission now has the legal authority to enforce such a requirement.
According to an article in the Naples, Fla. Daily News on Sept.27, Beasley Broadcast Group VP/CFO Caroline Beasley, who also is chairman of the National Association of Broadcasters' HD Radio Digital Technology Advancement Force, said HD Radio is within listening range of 90 percent of the U.S. population. And while the task force has been affective encouraging broadcasters to roll out new, niche formats at sidebar stations around the country, automobile manufacturers have been slow to add the technology to their option lists. Markey’s legislation would be a boon to broadcasters.
"NAB salutes the leadership of chairman Markey and a bipartisan group of lawmakers for sponsoring this important bill that will boost the integration of HD Radio in satellite radio receivers, including those installed in automobiles," said NAB president and CEO David K. Rehr. "In addition to providing 235 million weekly listeners with entertainment and music programming, free local radio stations have a long tradition of serving as a lifeline during times of crisis. This legislation will extend and enhance these services as radio stations embrace our digital future."
It is unclear whether the pending legislation would force manufacturers of Sirius XM receivers to include HD Radio technology on aftermarket satellite receivers plug and play units that traditionally include only satellite reception intended to be used in tandem with already installed AM/FM receivers. Sirius XM spokesman Patrick Reilly could not be reached for comment.
RELMOR too bad Apple didn't consult you about streaming media and cell phone signals. it would have saved them that huge write off they had to take on that failed IPHONE thing.
howcome people dont have wireless internet radio's in their houses?? Where wireless is found in almost every home already ... People are still buying satellite rads for their homes... If you can tell me why ill believe you ....
2.5 Trillion in market cap was lost in the market on Monday. The bailout plan was 700 billion. Today’s congressional decision effectively cost 3.57 times more than the bailout plan. If Tuesday’s market drop matches Monday's, that is 5 Trillion in market cap loss. More than 7 times as much. And so it all goes down into the abyss. The bailout is 700 billion right now. By the time our knucklehead government realizes this bailout is not optional but a critical necessity and they finally approve it, (pending all self serving contingencies are met) there may very well be (or should I say absolutely will be) far reaching peripheral market damage that a token 700 billion injection can not even hope to effect, let alone any kind of dramatic turn around. This is simple economics and mathematics involved here. I still think that letting the market adjust itself to balance the runaway fantasy based prices back to levels that are rooted in reality is a good thing. But it has become obvious to me today that the market, not just the US market but also the world market, does not have the integrity, intelligence, confidence or patience for such a thing. I do think there is a real danger of a worldwide DEPRESSION looming over our heads. Fortunately, this great country we live in has the power to turn things around on a dime and come out smelling like a champ. Unfortunately, we live in a country where political and personal agendas run deeper than the will to nurture the welfare of the common man, woman and child. As far as Sirius XM radio goes, well, it is good to try to keep hope alive. But being blind to the big picture and not noticing the effect of the world imploding around you is outright asinine! This forum, as well as many others, is an example of the same myopic view that is causing this mess in the first place. Nobody wants to admit how fucked we are. Everyone just wants to gossip about the “how and why and when” of their personal loss and gains and the dream of the big cash reward at the end of the golden gravy train. The reality is right there in front of you. Sirius, as well as many other companies that have been skating for years on thin ice, is absolutely going to fail and all your hard earned (and some not so hard earned) cash is going with it. If this meltdown had not happened, I would have quite the opposite opinion. There is one last sliver of hope here. That is if our government is able to see past the future and focus on what is happening today. They must come to our rescue NOW!
There is a famous event in history (1970) when President Nixon set out in the middle of the night for the Lincoln Memorial where a group of student protesters were camped out. Concerned about the Viet Nam War, the recent campus riots and protests and the Kent State killings a week prior, Nixon felt compelled to connect with young America and have a chance to explain his position and concerns directly as well as listening to theirs. Regardless of the outcome of that event, the single most poignant observation one can make was that he, by his own will, made himself accessible. My point is that there is no president or candidate or any politician that would even dream of such an intimate encounter. And if it did happen you could be sure it would be a circus of folly complete with international media coverage, completely contrived and designed to give a popularity boost. There always seems to be little or no regard for the truth, and no concern for the people whose lives and welfare are depending on their decisions. The government of today is a closed circuit that only looks after its own interest while maintaining a façade of public awareness. Try as we may, there are safeguards built into our government that keep us at a safe distance. You see, we can rant all we want, but in reality, nobody is listening as we continue our circle jerk of hope.
You don't know to much do you??
Mel even said that the company has a possability to post it's first profit ever by the 4Q....
and %90 of the time he's low ballin estimates... Sounds like a sweet deal to anyone who knows SIRIUS.!!
Pandora and other internet radio operators are on the brink of shutting down again as the negotiations for the royalty fees threaten to push into february of '09...
"POOF" There goes internet radio (Unless APPL decides it wants to try and pull it out of the ashes)
"Mel even said that the company has a possability to post it's first profit ever by the 4Q"
keyword to your little comment is "possibility" which of course you spelled wrong and really holds no weight when your company is in
the current state that it is now. Possibility means (in case you didnt know) there is a chance but not a guarantee. This is not the time to lowball numbers as you claim, is a trait of Mel.
He is going to lowball this stock right into bankruptcy and from the looks
of it. You are going to be the first one to drown. There is no turnaround
here, I fought the fight at $3.79 to $1.15. Then I woke up and realized I
need to put my money elsewhere.
There was no pop when the merger was FINALLY approved. When
do you see something positive? The crystal ball is a bit foggy right now
or should I shake it again?
Stubbornness is the DENIAL of TRUTH
To all people thinking of jumping:
Please read the above. This is your classic example of someone who will lose A LOT of money in the stock market and convinces himself "he'll make it up later in another stock." Yes, this man I guarantee you has suffered many losses on many other stocks. So if you want to be him, follow his advice!
First, people aren't buying sattelite radio receivers for their houses. If they were, Best Buy and Circuit City would be much happier. People are WIRING THEIR COMPUTERS TO RECEIVERS AND STREAMING AUDIO AROUND THE HOUSE. Good old fashioned technology marrying a new way to bring in audio content. And it's a MUCH broader pool of listening than XM/SIRI offers...Internet radio, FREE concerts from Wolfgang's Vault, Internet streams of 'old' radio from around the world...and XM/SIRI programming if you're willing to pay for it. Evidently, not many people are. You're already paying for cannectivity in your home, right?
Relmor, whether you fart on the moon or not, XM/SIRI still stinks as an investment. And it will in the long term because no more than 8-9% of potential users of the product are going to abandon FREE radio in their cars, regardless of whether there is a stable enough technology to bring Internet streaming to cars. At home, if I wanted non -stop 50's, 60's, 70's, reggae metal or whatever to listen to all day, I'd run "Music Choice" (which I already pay for via Comcast digital) through my receiver and have most of the SIRI/XM music formats covered. Why on earth do I need a satellite radio in my home??? To listen to Howard talk to strippers? I can choose from any sports station in America on any given morning via the web and be better entertained. Face it, XM/SIRI = BROKEN BUSINESS MODEL...unless they can sell advertising and stop charging for the service. And then, you'll all complain about the commmercials.
You obviously sound like someone who bet the house and kids on this stock to jump to $5 post merger like Cramer was shouting for months on end and is quite bitter you are down so much. This statement is an assumption since I don't know you from Adam. Thought to throw this in since you seem to know me so well.
And get back to SIRIUS talk...
Why doesnt HBO just start broadcasting over the open airwaves too. Same logic. And 30 years ago, people made the case that no one would pay for TV. Well everyone pays for TV now. Why? Because the content and product is much better that what is piped over the airwaves. I have not met anyone who does not fall in love with my Sirius when they hear it.
I don't know you but I know your comment, which you yourself made--and it "fits the mold." If you know the game, then you even know exactly what I'm talking about. If you're basis was 3.79 and you jumped @ 1.15, that's the profile. You did what Wall Street expects of you and every other nieve main street investor. If you were following traditional rules of playing the market, no way would you wait that long, then jump. Because I used to be an active trader (Includng day trading), I can tell you exactly what you are thinking right at this moment. Right now, you are PRAYING that SIRI does not come back to 1.15. You were sweating bullets when they surged back to buck 2 weeks ago (and hit 1.08 in pre market!). Because when that happens, you are going to be sick that you took the loss. I know because before I learned how not to do such things, I made the same mistakes. Temporarily, you are feeling better now that the stock is getting washed in the financial crisis eddy--because it continues to justify your sale. But the fact is (and I know you know this deep down), that SIRI will not only hit 1.15 again, but then 1.25, 1.40, 1.75 and eventually 2, then 3, then 4. When it gets back to 3.79 sometime next year, you will then have to face the fact that you really broke the rules of investing. Like I said, I know because I've been there myself. Btw, also if it was a pure spec play for you, you would still be in because spec plays require a time investment, which you clearly did not alllow--yet anothor broken rule..
I have no reason to dislike you but the facts are just the facts dude!
I just went to add the "Best of XM" package when I saw the news it was available. And guess what....I get "Not Available for your Receiver". WELL.....I'm waiting for new product to COME OUT to upgrade my receiver.
LET'S GET THE NEW EQUIPMENT ON THE MARKET TO MAKE SALES TO CURRENT SUBSCRIBERS WHO LOVE THE PRODUCT AND WANT TO UPGRADE.
And who is gonna buy it? Clear Channel? Didn't they already dump the Stern Show once?
I agree think oustide the box, but don't do it by crawling back into the old box.
When a stock is being manipulated one way, there is a 99percent chance its going the opposite directions(EVENTUALLY....
Heres some examples from this year that proved me right(huge moves the other way, and I held)
Bed bath and Beyond(Shorted at 29.90, ran to 36ish, back down to 27(soldit)
Lehman Bros(Shorted at 12.89, ran to 21, sold at 12(I was happy, I know I know, I messed up)
Mer(Shorted at 32, ran to 36, sold at 30)
SPY(Shorted at 132, ran to 144, sold at 131)(Weak hand that time)
KBH(Shorted at 17.50(kept raising short, ended at 20.89)) Covered at 19.50.
I can go on and on and on.
You see, a stocks direction is usually obvious(these days anyway), but the market wont let you take easy money, you have to be able to wait out the gay surges the other way.)
So......
Sirius.... Bought at 1.84(new buy in).... went to .60 cents(or further)....
SELLING AT $2.50-$3.00(half) balance went its on the moon.
This would be my first mistake of the year. I waited 3 months for that SPY to turn around, but I refused to close out a loss when I know I was right. Never know when it will turn.
That's the whole game right there. Sometimes (or most of the time in my experience) you need time to allow your strategy to pay off. I've said this before here. That's exactly how the big money managers make their money--through time. Even the big managers go underwater for a few months but they look at their timeframes Q to Q and even year to year not week to week. Hey when it happens big for you in a few days, a week or two, great, but that happens rarely.
But you see the difference between Tavares and Relmor, one took a big loss unnecessarily and the other knows patience (no offense Tavares!) and has gains--though he had to work for those gains. The only real time an investor should jump, is when he or she is day trading and establishes a tight stop loss ahead of time--usually only 5% tops. Then, (example)if you buy in at 3.00, it goes .15 down and you are OUT-- and you do move on to the next one. There you don't want to tie your money up becuae you are only intersted in playing dips and haircuts or shorting peaks. But your loss is minimal and since you're a day trader, your accounting is mark to market and you don't have the 3K restriction...garbage in garbage out. But if you allow a loss past that 5%, you are technically in a different mode and are much wiser to wait out the downturn because that's how Wall Street is. They know when you come in and they will almost always test your fortitude--which most fail and which is how MM's and companies take fancy vacations and buy new summer homes at your expense.
Look at today. How many people are frustrated that the NAS is +80 and SIRI is flat? Classic strategy to get more jumpers!!
check this one out, mother of all shorts CALM.
i think it's the one brandon or tyler was talking about on one of the radio shows but couldent say the name...was a good play if ya knew when to play it.
this article has got me scared
The public can offer the FCC feedback on the Inquiry through December 9. The docket number is 08-172.
arstechnica.com/news.a...
I for one trust Mel...
I don't care what you ney sayers think. I personally don't mind the stock price fall because Soon Mel will be forced to act even if he does not want to... which i'm sure he has somthing up his sleeve. We will have to see next week and maybe into the next QTR.
Right now, almost everyone agrees that there are too many outstanding shares for this company and that's a main reason this stock is so low. One of the easiest ways to fix the problem is a reverse split. I don't want one and no one else does... but if it hangs around these levels for long it will be forced to almost. Plus for a company this size... there are just too many shares out there... The company isn't worth those extra shares... YET!! reverse split might help for now...