Stocks discussed on the in-depth session of Jim Cramer's Mad Money TV Program, Monday November 5.
As the East Coast braves its own $50 billion disaster, Cramer revisited another $50 billion disaster; the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico that forced BP to sell significant assets, $30 billion, since it only had $20 billion in cash to cover the rest of the damage. Cramer decided to take a look at which companies have bought these assets, many at bargain basement prices, and should benefit from BP’s misfortune.
While Cramer has not liked the refining business, he changed his mind recently, because the divergence between West Texas Intermediate and Brent Crude has become so wide that refiners are making huge profits off of it. Marathon Petroleum (MPC) bought refining assets from BP for very low prices. BP had refurbished the refinery for $5 billion, but had to sell it to MPC for half that amount at $2.5 billion. Linn Energy (LINE) bought $2.2 billion of BP’s assets in Kansas and Wyoming. BP sold off its Canadian business to Plains All American Pipeline (PAA) in 2011, and the deal is integrating well; PAA offers a dividend of 4.8%. Apache (APA), which Cramer thinks is a cheap stock to begin with, bought $7 billion of BP’s upstream assets. While Apache’s stock has not been performing well, its future prospects might look brighter. Plains Exploration and Production (PXP) purchased $5.5 billion of BP’s deep water assets. Cramer thinks PXP is very well-run and is the best deep water operator.
The stocks that are moving up or down are not performing well or badly because of hopes or fears for the election, according to Cramer. Individual stocks are winning because of management that has “raw brain power,” to develop “product differentiation,” and has nothing to do with politics. Perhaps some blame the President for unemployment or criticize the Administration’s draconian take on the banks. However, retail sales have been faring well, in spite of unemployment, and the financial sector is stable. An Obama administration was supposed to mean bad news for oil and natural gas stocks, but while the latter stocks were kept back because of abnormally low natural gas prices, they are seeing gradual gains with the stabilization in commodity price. Whether a Romney victory would be better for those sectors is anyone’s guess. “The bottom line,” Cramer said, “is politics is incredibly over-rated as a stock performance prism.”
Waste Management (WM) should see an upside in the aftermath of Hurricane Sandy.
Although the election might not have a dramatic effect on stocks in all sectors for the long-term, there are at least some short-term trades that can be made depending on the outcome of the election. Generally, Romney is considered to be more pro-Wall Street, so a Romney victory might mean a rally in the S&P 500. In the case of an Obama victory, it is more likely that Ben Bernanke will remain as Fed Chairman, and this would be good news for retail and housing stocks. The stock-related issue over which the candidates disagree the most is fossil fuels. President Obama has been reluctant to endorse natural gas as a bridge fuel and emphasizes solar and wind as energy solutions. Romney has stated that it is a national priority to become energy self-sufficient. It is unlikely that he would close coal plants, so Peabody (BTU) is a buy on a Romney victory as well as Halliburton (HAL), since it is likely that drilling will increase.
While natural gas stocks are likely to see an upsurge if Romney wins, this might be more of a short-term play rather than an investment, since natural gas requires demand and infrastructure to see a long-term bullish trend. If Romney wins, it might be a good idea to short solar stocks, like First Solar (FSLR). Those who hold shares in General Motors (GM) should keep in mind that Romney intends to sell the government’s stake in GM if elected, but Obama is less likely to divest quickly.
CEO Interview: Irwin Simon, Hain Celestial (HAIN)
No matter who wins the election, healthy eating and the fight against obesity will be a main priority for many Americans. Hain Celestial (HAIN), at the forefront of the healthy eating trend, has risen 217% since Cramer got behind it in 2010, but has dropped recently, slightly reversing its strong upward trend. However, the company delivered a one cent earnings beat and has a multiple of just 20, while it is growing at 16.6%. Hain is making an acquisition to expand its juice offerings and is seeing 25% organic growth and substantial growth in its main brands: Arrowhead Mills was up 35% and Garden of Eatin' rose 43%. Hain has acquired a natural soup company from the U.K., and continues to see 40% growth in the Greek Gods yogurt brand, but said Hain has the "quality problem" of not quite keeping up with demand for the yogurt.
Cramer thinks Hain's dip in stock price may be a buying opportunity.
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