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Executives

Robert Goocher - VP, IR and Treasurer

Carl Chapman - Chairman, CEO and President

Jerry Benkert - EVP and CFO

Analysts

Sarah Akers - Wells Fargo Securities

Michael Gaugler - Brean Murray, Carret & Co.,

Dave Parker - Robert W. Baird

Vectren Corp (VVC) Q3 2012 Earnings Call November 6, 2012 2:00 PM ET

Operator

Good afternoon, my name is Rachel, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Vectren Corporation Third Quarter Earnings Call. (Operator Instructions) Thank you. Robert Goocher, Treasurer and Vice President of Investor Relations, you may begin your conference.

Robert Goocher

Thank you, operator. Good afternoon, and thank each of you for joining us on the call to review Vectren’s 2012 third quarter results. This call is being webcast, and shortly following its conclusion, a replay will be available on our website www.vectren.com in the Investor Relations section. Yesterday, we released our quarterly earnings, and this morning we filed our third quarter 10-Q. Copies of our earnings release, today's slide presentation and the 10-Q can all be found on our website.

As further described on Slide 2, I would like to remind you that many of the statements made on this call will be forward-looking statements. Actual results may differ materially from those discussed in this presentation.

Carl Chapman, Vectren's Chairman, President and CEO, will provide opening comments on the year to date and quarterly results before turning it over to Jerry Benkert, Executive Vice President and CFO, who will further discuss results and expectations from the specific businesses for the remainder of 2012. Following our prepared remarks, we will be glad to answer any questions you may have. Also joining us on today's call is Ron Christian, Executive Vice President and Chief Legal and External Affairs Officer.

With that, I'll turn it over to Carl.

Carl Chapman

Thanks, Robert. I'd also like to welcome everyone to today's call, and as always, we appreciate your interest in Vectren.

Before we begin, I’d be remiss if I didn’t first acknowledge the hardship that many of our investors, analysts, industry peers and friends in the financial community may be facing right now as a result of hurricane Sandy, to provide assistance yet while maintaining appropriate level of coverage for our system we released numerous contract including personnel representing roughly 50% of our line repair expertise and even this morning released another significant number of employees and supervisors to help with natural gas distributors.

We certainly want to send our thoughts and prayers to all who have been impacted by the storm for a safe and swift recovery. Of course, today’s quarterly earnings call followed on a burning 14 date (ph) for our country when the presidential election and many other key local state and national races will be decided.

With the understanding many of our listeners today may be focused on these priorities. We will keep prepared remarks to a minimum and then open it up for questions. With that, please turn to slide 3 and 4 as we begin a review of Vectren’s results.

I would like to start by saying I am very pleased with our third quarter year to date results with both well above earning levels in 2011. 2012 consolidated year to date earnings were $116.2 million or $1.42 per share which is $0.26 per share higher than year to date 2011. For the third quarter net income was $39.3 million or $0.48 per share which also represents growth over 2011 up $0.05 per share.

Strong results year to date have been driven by a solid performance from our core utility operations and also by the outstanding results from infrastructure services, our non-utility pipeline construction business which continues to exceed our expectations. On the other hand, our coal mining business continues to face a near term slowdown in demand for coal across the country which has resulted in disappointing results this year.

After Jerry will share recent successes we’ve had in coal sales for the rest of this year and through 2015, improvements that ProLiance offset much of the year over year declines in coal mining results as ProLiance continues to make significant progress on its turnaround plant and consistent with our expectations have shown good improvement year to date.

Given this backdrop, and now that we are into the final two months of the year, we’re increasing the midpoint of our consolidated 2012 earnings guidance and narrowing the consolidated earnings range, including the expected loss at ProLiance to a $1.80 to $1.90 per share. Jerry will elaborate further on earnings guidance near the end of his prepared remarks.

And finally, before Jerry goes into more detail on year to date quarterly results, I am pleased to announce that on Friday the Board of Directors approved an increase in quarterly dividend of $0.035 per share or an annualized rate of $1.42 per share. This is the 53rd consecutive year Vectren and its processor companies have increased annual guidance paid, an accomplishment of which we are very proud of.

The dividend current provides a very attractive yield of about 4.8% and supports our total annual shareholder return target of 8 to 10% driven by steady earnings growth and consistent increases in the annual dividends paid. Like most dividend utilities Vectren is actively engaged in the effort to extend the current 15% dividend tax rate that have been my dividend efforts from the American gas association and Edison Electric Institute continue to move forward.

In addition, we are maintaining an ongoing dialogue with this important topic with our members of Congress and their staffs. We’ve engaged employees and retirees to assist in this effort by contacting their elected officials to let their voices be heard in Washington. We will continue working hard on this issue and believe it is critical that the dividend remains at a low rate when compared to the ordinary income rates and the tax rates on capital gains and dividend be treated equally.

With that, I will turn it over to Jerry who will discuss our business units results and provide an update for 2012 earnings guidance. Jerry?

Jerry Benkert

Thanks Carl. On slide 5, utility group earnings year to date were up $9.7 million over the prior year driven by new electric rates that began in May 2011 and lower interest expense reflecting the impact of our 2011 long term debt refinancings.

Weather has only slightly impacted year to date results as an extremely mild winter was mostly offset by the hot summer. Third quarter utility earnings were down $1.5 million or $0.02 per share compared to 2011 on slightly lower earnings from our electric utility operations, primarily resulting from increased operating expenses related to the timing of power plant maintenance. Overall the utility group’s continued strong year-to-date performance has put us in a position to earn our allowed returns in 2012 which remained one of our strategic goals.

On slide six, we shift over to the non-utility group. Year to date results for the coal mining segment were breakeven compared to earnings of 15.9 million in 2011. As Carl described earlier, persistent weak demand for coal in 2012 has hampered sales and production levels throughout the year resulting in lower productivity and increased cost per ton.

Our coal mining group is still working hard to maximize sales opportunities in 2012 which led to an additional 500,000 tons of spot sales in the third quarter for delivery in 2012 bringing total tons sold up to 4.4 million for the full year. Long term sales contracts remain our strongest pursuit though and I am pleased to share that in the third quarter we sold approximately 1 million tons in 2013, nearly 2 million tons in 2014 and 2.3 million in 2015. In total we currently have 4.3 million tons sold in 2013 and 5.8 million tons in 2014. These totals do include a contract of roughly 500,000 pounds in tons in 2013 and 700,000 tons in 2014 that is currently in arbitration related to a price we open (ph). We believe the matter will be resolved by early next year.

Stepping back for a minute, we continue to believe our Indiana coal mines are well-positioned to capture future sales as demand recovers. That of course has been occurring as natural gas has moved above the $3 level. In addition, the development of our second Oak Town mine is now complete and is ready to begin production once contracts are signed to support this additional production.

While demand softness due to the customer inventory build will carry into 2013, we continue to be confident in the long-term outlook for Illinois basin coal. As we told you last quarter, we remain optimistic that overall demand and supply of coal will be back in balance in 2014 if topical. Year-to-date results for ProLiance were a loss of $13.5 million compared to a loss of $25.3 million in 2011. This is nearly a $12 million improvement.

As expected, both the year-to-date and quarterly results continue to improve reflecting the reduction in demand cost for both storage and transportation contracts and better optimization margins due in part to improved seasonal spreads. With further demand cost reductions on the horizon, ProLiance continues to execute on the turnaround plan in the areas of the business that they can control.

Year-to-date results for our energy services business were earnings of $900,000 compared to $1.6 million in 2011. Though the current market for performance contracting and renewable projects remain soft, energy services continues to hire additional sales professionals. As we still believe that customers needs for cost-saving energy solutions will continue to grow with the passage of time particularly as power prices across the country rise over the next five years, further pressuring already strained municipal school system and state budgets.

As shown on slide 7, our infrastructure services business continues to exceed the expectations. Year to date results were $27.3 million versus $11.1 million in 2011. In addition to the very strong demand in both the distribution and transmission segments of this business, year-to-date results have been positively impacted by favorable construction weather until more rain occurred in September. As we near the end of the 2012 construction season, we are updating our 2012 infrastructure services guidance midpoint to $32 million from $23.5 million to reflect strong year-to-date results along with our expectations of a solid fourth quarter performance.

At this level, for the full 2012 year we would see a $17 million increase over our earnings of 2011 and nearly $30 million increase compared to 2010. As the graph on slide 7 demonstrates infrastructure services has had dramatic top line growth as well over the past few years both organically and through acquisitions which has been fueled by our ability to further our strong customer relationships, win competitive bids and hire and train skilled workers as evidenced by the growing number of employees.

As we look forward to 2013 and beyond, we remain confident in the ongoing strong demand and believe that there will be continued great opportunities in this business. This will result in the required repair or replacement of aging natural gas and the oil pipeline infrastructure along with the new pipeline construction opportunities related to the development of oil and natural gas reserves particularly in the Bakken, Marcellus and Utica shale regions. Of course capitalizing on this demand is key and as our long history has shown, we have the long-term customer relationships and the operational skill to succeed in winning contracts and growing the business.

Our results year-to-date speak for themselves but as another example we were just awarded a new contract in the Bakken shale area to construct an 80 mile natural gas transmission pipeline. With all of that said, while we do expect to see continued revenue and earnings growth for infrastructure services in the coming years, we do not expect growth as rapid as the past few years where 2012 will likely go down as one of the best years in recent memory in terms of favourable weather for pipeline construction activity. We will comment further in February on our expectations for infrastructure services when we announce 2013 earnings guidance.

Moving on to slide 8, as Carl shared, we now expect consolidated earnings for the full year 2012 including the expected loss at ProLiance to be in a range of $1.80 to $1.90 per share, an increase of $0.10 per share at midpoint over our prior guidance of $1.65 to $1.85. The primary driver of the increase in guidance this quarter is the excellent performance of our infrastructure services group. As a result, in conjunction with the increase of the midpoint of consolidated guidance, we are also raising our non-utility group guidance, excluding ProLiance to a range of $0.31 to $0.37 per share. And while holding to the same midpoint we’re narrowing the range of our utility group guidance to $1.67 to $1.73 per share and narrowing ProLiance’s guidance range to a loss of $0.15 to $0.21.

Before we take questions, I would like to close with a few comments on Vectren’s valuation. First as most of you know, our well performing utility operations are the core of Vectren’s overall operations. And as such they make up 80% to 90% of Vectren’s consolidated earnings.

Second, we continue to view our portfolio of non-utility businesses as a smaller yet still important part of Vectren’s earnings growth strategy. Within the non-utility group, our strategy of reducing the reliance on ProLiance and coal mining our two sensitive commodity businesses remain intact as we believe the infrastructure services and energy services businesses will provide more consistent earnings growth over time.

We are achieving significant improvement in ProLiance results as we reduce its pipeline storage commitments. That along with its strong improving results from infrastructure services over the last couple of years from the additional investments we've made in this line of business. While we believe we're well on our way to successfully executing on our strategy, our year-to-date nonutility earnings of $14.1 million versus $3.4 million last year demonstrates this improvement.

Given the progress we're making on gaining share our belief that valuing Vectren based on consolidated earnings for DE multiples without making an adjustment for the losses that ProLiance and coal mining that should not continue long-term will not result in the proper valuation for Vectren.

Operator, that concludes our prepared remarks and we're now ready for questions.

Question-and-Answer Session

Operator

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from the line of Sarah Akers from Wells Fargo.

Sarah Akers - Wells Fargo Securities

Can you guys give us any indication of coal margins for 2013 even if it’s just directionally relative to 2012?

Jerry Benkert

Sarah, at this point we are not prepared to provide that guidance, we will do that in February. What we wanted to do with what we shared on this call was to give you a sense that there were good sales being accomplished at market. And we just wanted to provide that sense. We’re not prepared to give that guidance, obviously the number of tons produced is tied to sales and we will have a better update for you in February.

Sarah Akers - Wells Fargo Securities

And then sounds like 2 million of the 5.8 million tons that are locked in for ’14 were entered into a third quarter of this year. Can you give us a sense of kind of over what period was the remaining 3.8 million tons contracted and are any of those subject to price reopeners, the size to the 700,000 that you mentioned?

Carl Chapman

Actually Sarah, the way we have been providing our information is that if there is a price reopener we've not been calling that sold even though the tons are technically contracted, we’ve just not been saying sold so that you have a better sense of what’s actually sold in price.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Michael Gaugler from Brean Capital.

Michael Gaugler - Brean Murray, Carret & Co.,

Few questions, I will start with the utility group first. Noticed that the trend over in D&A seems to be ticking down a bit since the first quarter. Any color you can provide on if that's we’re going to be maybe perhaps bottoming out D&A or is that trying to continue to be appreciated?

Jerry Benkert

Michael, that’s you should not expect it to be bottoming out. We expect growth when we show slides we expect some level of CapEx growth and that will continue to add to depreciation in the future. With some adjustments in the quarter as we continue to have the opportunity to defer some additional cost on depreciation in Ohio, and you’re seeing a little bit of that come through but the normal trend will be upward.

Michael Gaugler - Brean Murray, Carret & Co.,

Just the second question, over at Vectren Fuels, pretty good performance there overall given the tough conditions here nine months through the year you’re at breakeven. I think on the last quarterly call you had indicated you were looking for a loss of up to $6 million for 2012 there. I didn’t hear any commentary or see anything, trying to updating that guidance. It would seem that you’re probably going to be doing a little bit better than that type of a loss given one quarter remaining and what you did in 3Q?

Carl Chapman

Michael, didn’t provide an update and there may be the chance to improve by a small margin but that’s still sort of in the ballpark area.

Michael Gaugler - Brean Murray, Carret & Co.,

Just kind of one note, noticed in 8-K from one of my other companies last evening NJR coming out with pretty sustainable damage to the distribution system in Barrier Island, New Jersey, now they’ve sent some crews into the northeast already to help out, they will probably be looking for some infrastructure help to get that part of New Jersey back up and running. So be an opportunity for you.

Carl Chapman

We appreciate that info and obviously we are aware of their situation and we just continue to have dialogue through the various assistance group both on the electric and gas side and those who – that’s for assistance we try to provide just as many personnel as we can while still maintaining our own systems. And we will continue to look at whether we can provide additional people particularly on the gas side here over the next several weeks.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Dave Parker from Robert W. Baird.

Dave Parker - Robert W. Baird

A macro question on the infrastructure what is the kind of limiting factor for revenue growth for that business? Is it purely people or do you need offices, footprint some of the expansion you’ve had so far has been somewhat in your backyard and obviously you had a tuck-in acquisition. But sort of what allows you as we look at opportunities to places Michael just brought up, damage of the structure, the clients issues as well as additional pipes and some of the shale plays, what limits your – what’s the key factor you ought to be focussing on as far as the growth opportunity there?

Carl Chapman

Well as you mentioned Dave, the key factor really is people and so far we’ve not had problems in doing that. There is a big ramp up in all the regions that you mentioned and then Sandy just sort of puts another specific opportunity there but also a difficult time for those that are experiencing it but opportunity for contractors. But we have not seen real problems at this point either in the distribution or transmission side. But that’s the key limiting factor.

There are some issues on just buildings and places to work from, obviously housing, we're in the midst right now in the Bakken area, building a facility that will serve as our warehouse and how we'll layout our equipment and also will have housing.

So that problem is, is being taken care of as we speak although again, obviously if you add more people that adds to it. We think that's manageable and at this point at least it's been very manageable in getting the kind of personnel that we need to do this work.

Dave Parker - Robert W. Baird

But what would be your assessment Carl, I mean if you use like a baseball analogy, we've had – obviously got, pipeline integrity cost and it looks like a lot of gas pipeline companies have finally finished those, effort to trying to identify what needs to get done, we're in the second and third inning of that kind of uptick and workload. And also with the shale plays, is that just beginning or we're in mid-game there?

Carl Chapman

Well we think we're probably very early and particularly on the shale side, let me start there, because there's just – there are so many wells to be attached, both in the Marcellus, of course, Utica is not even really started yet, to any magnitude at all and then in the Bakken, there's all the gas that's being flared. The estimates are in the range of 30% to 40% of all gas being flared. So we're in the very early stages.

I think on integrity, it's really has the new rules, we'll come out of the Federal Regulator we'll have more sense of that. But there's still lots of work being done there, there's also the distribution integrity management rules, that are just now being undertaken by the distribution side. But you're really seeing a lot of pipeline integrity work that's still being done even though the first ten years of the rules, there – there's an awful lot of repair work still being done on the pipeline side.

So I really think, we're pretty early in the cycle, and it looks like the cycle ought to be good for quite a period of time.

Dave Parker - Robert W. Baird

Right, great, so your comments earlier were, great year-over-year improvement, don't expect that in the future because of weather but still you're looking for a pretty attractive growth cliff for infrastructure to be able to enjoy here for the foreseeable future, is that fair to say.

Carl Chapman

Yeah, we think the growth cliff can be good, now obviously we've grown as we described earlier, Jerry, described we've grown at a very fast cliff, both due to weather this year, but also just if you think of the magnitude - for this business was making $3 million a couple of years ago. So that growth pace is not one that continue but we do think there can be very nice growth from this business just because of all the areas you mentioned.

One that we didn't mention too much is really all of the bare steel cast iron kind of work that a lot of the distribution companies now are speeding up. And we'll see again what kind of rules come out of Federal Regulator particularly related to cast iron and the pace of those programs.

Dave Parker - Robert W. Baird

Great, thanks for that. And just one last question on ProLiance, if you can refresh my memory, I know you laid out about 18 months ago the wind down of the fixed capacity contracts that you had or over capacity you had and where are we in that, those contracts are of winding and rolling off.

Jerry Benkert

Hey, David. Great question, because that's certainly in a realm of what they can control and what's really helped to improve the results, but if you go back in 2011 they were at $73 million, and this is the ongoing demand charge if you will, in 2012 it's down to $55 million, for 2013 we project $45 million, so it drops another $10 from this year. And then over the years of '14, '15 we seen another $12 million. Again this is significant improvement and yet dollars scheduled yet to come.

Dave Parker - Robert W. Baird

Right, perfect thank you, very much for the update and again congratulations.

Carl Chapman

Thank you.

Operator

(Operator Instructions)

Your next question comes from the line of [John Ansen] from (inaudible). Your line is now open.

Unidentified Analyst

Good afternoon.

Carl Chapman

Good afternoon.

Unidentified Analyst

All right, a follow up on Sarah's question on the coal for just a second, those extra tons contracted those are external to – they're not [single] coal tons are they?

Jerry Benkert

That's correct, John, those were external tons that have been contracted in all the years.

Unidentified Analyst

Any export or is that all the kind of domestic utility stuff?

Jerry Benkert

Generally speaking, it's been domestic at this point, we have sold import coal, in the past, not selling a whole lot right now, but that opportunity is out there for the long-term.

Unidentified Analyst

Moving on, if I could just follow-up a little bit on the pipeline construction business, which sounds great, do you guys, have some other companies there in that kind of business and they start talking about backlogs, do you guys talk about how your backlog is going over here over the years?

Carl Chapman

We actually have talked to a number of investors about them. We'll continue to look at what we can provide there, we know that's key for everyone to understand the business better in the long-term prospects. It's just that an awful lot of the work that we see is done under blankets, which means that it's really priced – on a unit basis, but we don't have as good a sense of exactly how much work is coming. And then we also do a lot of time in material work, we're again not a great sense of the backlog. There's other work we mentioned that's 80 mile pipeline that we just landed, that would be an easy backlog to describe, but the other is not as easy.

So we're going to continue to look at and I think in February we'll hopefully have some more ideas to share around how we can describe the kind of work that's coming for that business. We certainly understand the investor interest.

Unidentified Analyst

Great, I appreciate that because as you make comments about it weather being good and accelerating things, I'm just trying to figure out how much has been moved forward versus what's coming up, really appreciate that whatever you can give us on those.

One last thing as I've had a couple of gas companies that have talked about pension, pension changes that are coming up that are impacting them, versus what they have at rates and having to do some things. Have you guys run into that at all or not?

Jerry Benkert

Well, we continue to pay attention to pension, just generally, but what I'd say there is we've got a long history where we moved to define contribution plans, certainly on the non-bargaining side years back. And even on the bargain side what we have maybe, four different bargaining units involved in each case all of our new hires have been moved over to cash balance and things like that. So our plans are generally at this point pretty well funded against the [recent] guidelines, so I think on that matter we're just doing pretty good stead at this time John.

Unidentified Analyst

Great, thanks a lot.

Carl Chapman

Thank you.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Paul Patterson from Glenrock. Your line is now open.

Paul Patterson - Glenrock

Jerry Benkert

Good, how are you?

Carl Chapman

Hi, Paul.

Paul Patterson - Glenrock

Just wondering, with the infrastructure business and everything, any thoughts about expanding that in terms of acquisitions; for that matter I guess any thought process in terms of the business mix or any potential changes there or - I don't know, the infrastructure business seems to stick out because, it's one that's been rolled in the past, and I'm just wondering whether or not there's any thought of, you guys going down that road considering the positive experience you're having with it.

Carl Chapman

Well, as we've shared when we did the Minnesota deal, we have never viewed this as a roll up strategy. We really think that the personnel and the relationships, the long-term customer relationships are absolute key and so we've really never seen it as a classic roll up strategy.

On the other hand, we've done five small acquisitions over the last few years, and a larger one in Minnesota, and we'll certainly look at whether there are opportunities to fill in geography or acquire obviously key personnel or equipment so we'll always look at that, but don't really see it as a roll-up strategy as it's traditionally thought out. We're willing to invest some additional capital, but again as I said, it would be more about filling in geography or specific skill sets.

Paul Patterson - Glenrock

Okay, sure. And then just any other – any thoughts about, I know you're perpetually asked abut ProLiance and stuff, but just in general any thoughts about how – some of this businesses, long term might fit or not fit in, with the whole company, the coal business, what have you, any thing you want to give us a sense to that or.

Carl Chapman

Well, I think Jerry, covered it really very well. We are focused on infrastructure and energy services as our long-term growth. And that means less reliance on ProLiance and coal, and what you know as well and what we've always said is, as we always look at our businesses and expect them to provide a solid return to our shareholders if that's not the case and we would look at other opportunities, so we don't really have anything to add beyond other quarters, we're clearly relying more on the infrastructure and energy services but looking at working hard on the other two businesses, as you can see from Jerry's comments, and reducing the losses at ProLiance and we've sold a lot of coal I the third quarter really for the medium to longer term.

Paul Patterson - Glenrock

Okay. Thanks a lot.

Carl Chapman

Thank you.

Operator

There are no further questions, I'll turn the call back over to our presenters.

Carl Chapman

Thank you, operator. We'd like to thank everyone for joining us on our call today, on behalf of the entire team, we appreciate your continued interest in Vectren and invite you to please contact us if you have any follow-up questions.

For those of you who will be attending the EEI Conference next week in Phoenix, we look forward to seeing you there. With that I'll conclude our call for today. Thank for your participation.

Operator

This concludes today's conference call, you may now disconnect.

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