Analysts: Expecting a 30% Rally Over the Next 12 Months?

 |  Includes: DIA, IVV, SPY, X
by: TickerSense

According to Birinyi Associates' most recent bottoms up analysis on the S&P 500, a consensus of analysts covering those stocks expect the market to rally over 31% within the next year.  (This is calculated as if every stock were to reach its respective price target within the specified time - usually 1 year or 6 months.)  Anyone who has been watching stocks over the last 6 months probably knows, not thinks... knows, that Google (NASDAQ:GOOG) for example will not rally to 620 within the next year.

Analysts are historically bullish on their stocks.  US Steel (NYSE:X), for example, is trading at an estimated P/E of 2.7.  With the stock down 53% year-to-date, the people trading it obviously do not agree with the analysts.  Earnings season begins tomorrow.  We would not be surprised to see a string of estimate revisions and downgrades as these companies come closer to reporting.  With that in mind, market bottoms are sometimes associated with extreme negative sentiment.