SPY Down Gaps During the Current Bear Market

The S&P 500 tracking SPY ETF is set to open down about 2.2% this morning.  For those interested, below we highlight all gaps down of 1% or more during the current bear market.  For each down gap, we also provide what the ETF did from the open to the close that day. 

As shown, it has been about 50/50 for whether the market has gone up or down from the open to the close.  The average percent change from open to close on these down gap days has been 0.28%, while the median change has been -0.02%. 

For roulette players out there, we've gone up, down, up, down, up, down, up, down from the open to the close following the last 8 one percent down gaps.  That means we're due for an up day, right?

click to enlarge

Comments

[anarchist:]

I guess we could have said "That means we're due for an up day, right?" on Friday. If we have an up day tomorrow it will only be because there are a lot of bottom-feeders looking for bargains but my guess is that after that surge fear will set in again and the markets will head down again.

2008 Oct 06 12:36 PM