Vringo Hype: Face The Facts

| About: FORM Holdings (FH)

Dan Ravicher is a patent law expert. Prior to a trial verdict in the lawsuit of Vringo (VRNG) against Google (NASDAQ:GOOG), Ravicher predicted the actual verdict would be around $100MM. The jury announced $31MM for the past year or so of damages and awarded future damages for 3 more years. This implies at most a verdict of $150MM, so Ravicher was right.

Professor Ravicher just won Appellant Lawyer of the Week from the National Law Journal. Here is his argument explaining that Vringo won just over $100MM. Do Vringo longs really think they know better? Do you think he would risk his professional reputation on a small cap stock? He's a professor, not a hedge fund manager.

A media hype frenzy, with press releases posing as articles, has suggested that the verdict was actually $500MM. One of the most popular current theories is that jurors made a mistake on the math. I'm sorry, but if you believe that, perhaps you should be buying coal companies, because Romney really won and it's time to demand a recount.

Side note: investors should consider the role of Vringo's primary bullish analyst Maxim Group, whose former Institutional Sales VP Cliff Weinstein is now Communications VP at Vringo. Maxim Group has a buy rating with a price target of $9. Some may recall Maxim's involvement with an initial "buy" price target of $10, rating another company said to have been hyped.

I would not consider buying this stock for more than $3. I probably wouldn't actually buy it above $2, and only after considerable due diligence. Way too much hype!

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

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