The Woz Is Sounding Bearish on Apple

Say it ain’t so, Woz.

Apple (AAPL) co-founder Steve Wozniak appears to be feeling, well, bearish on Apple.

In a weird interview published by the U.K.-based newspaper The Telegraph, Woz has some disturbing comments on Apple’s stock, the iPod and the iPhone. Here are a few key items from the interview, which I would encourage you to read in full:

• Asked about the recent downgrades of the stock by analyst at Morgan Stanley and RBC Capital, he told the Telegraph that the downgrades were “correct.”
• He went on to say that the PC market as a whole may be headed for trouble. “It is time for the whole computer industry to maybe have a bit of a slowdown,” Woz told the Telegraph. “For twenty years we have been in this replacement and upgrade market. It is very easy to postpone that when there are financial irregularities.”
• Woz apparently also apparently sees the eventual demise of the iPod. “The iPod has sort of lived a long life at number one,” he told the Telegraph. “Things like, that if you look back to transistor radios and Walkmans, they kind of die out after a while.” He suggested that the market may be close to saturation. “It’s kind of like everyone has got one or two or three. You get to a point when they are on display everywhere, they get real cheap and they are not selling as much.”
• Wozniak also expressed some disagreement with Apple’s decision to closely control the access software developers have to the market for new applications for the iPhone 3G. “Consumers aren’t getting all they want when companies are very proprietary and lock their products down,” he said. “I would like to write some more powerful apps than what you’re allowed.”

Amid another big stock market decline, Apple closed down Tuesday $8.98, or 9.15%, to $89.16.

Comments

[Julian Ivan...:]

Woz - as usual - has iEnvy.. he poo-pooed the iPod, and the iPhone, and now the Mac. What a joker. Its time he was called out for the charlatan he is - the guy's a moron, a one-hit wonder. His glory days are several decades past now, and all he does is warble about how Apple's glory days ended, well, decades ago.

If Woz was still at Apple Macs would still come in wooden cases and have CLIs.

2008 Oct 07 05:29 PM

[yet another...:]

Actually, Woz is right. Standalone .mp3 players WILL go the way of transistor radios someday.

That's why there's an iPhone and an iPod Touch.

Part of the genius of the ipod has always been the way Apple keeps pushing it forward as technology allows. Apple isn't just aware of this--it's driving it. SanDisk can make music players, but now they need an OS. MS has an OS, yet has been so unsuccessful with it (in portable devices) that it did not base Zune on it.

No idea how far down the stock will go... or how much the recession will hurt sales in the short term. But long term Apple isn't threatened by this--it is leading it.

2008 Oct 07 11:10 PM

[i39gy783jf5:]

WOZ ... WAZ ... WAS

2008 Oct 08 08:56 AM

[mollytjm:]

Apple knows people get use to technology..that's why they spend so much $ on innovation. i'd think Woz would get it by now, but obviously not. Sony rested on it's laurels after the walkman...Apple isn't making that mistake. That's what happened with a lot of tech companies. Dell had top rated sales... then outsourced tech help to the lowest bidder and lost it all...another thing Apple won't do...provide crummy servie.

2008 Oct 08 09:54 AM

[mollytjm:]

ooops...should be : another thing Apple won't do...provide crummy service!

2008 Oct 08 09:54 AM

[brewer:]

Eric, were you and Woz twins, separated at birth? You guys look a lot alike.

2008 Oct 08 11:06 AM

[Sekar:]

Morons like Brewer try to trash anyone who are critical of Apple. Idiots like Brewer claim that "Keep in mind, the rotary dial phone is also a touch based device". Are these guys living in fantasy world? Look at where Apple stock is. In Jan 2008, I predicted the share price to drop to around $85-90, when there was a big hype about iPhones crossing 10 M mark soon. Yes, Apple indeed sold nearly 10 M as analyzed by Turley Muller of seekingalpha. Steve Jobs boldly predicted that Apple would sell 10 M iPhones in one year and he thought that consumers would queue up to buy these phones. In reality this did not happen, until the price was slashed after 45 days and a cheaper 3G version was introduced. To continue this momentum, Apple has to slash the prices to appease frugal consumers in other countries. Hey Brewer, I didn't know that rotary phone is also a touch based device - what a great discovery ??? Try to sell few Apple shares to Wall St. with your discovery. You can also stand in front of NYC 5th Avenue store to demonstrate that rotary phones are also touch based device.

2008 Oct 08 11:43 AM

[Sekar:]

Dear PhD, you are wrong on Apple business model. Go and read my forum posts for past one year and I have been saying that Apple cannot continue to sell luxury items in a downward economy. Morons like YOU, Brewer and Toni believe that other computer companies like Toshiba, Dell, Sony and HP sell trash and no one buys their products, especially Laptops. Apple's pricing and Steve Jobs business model will do more harm to Apple stock in the long run. Apple's stock cannot go higher and higher because they will continue to sell iPods and iPhones. That's not going to happen. The global financial crisis does affect all computer companies, but Apple is more vulnerable. Look at Toyota's stock and sales number. Just five months back they boldy predicted 9.85 million sales for 2008 and three days ago 0% financing was announced and sales forecast has been slashed. Do you think people are mad to buy Lexus and pricey Toyota SUVs when the economy is down. Apple is exactly like Lexus and frugal consumers will shun pricier products when their wallets have holes. Just don't write crap in forums.

2008 Oct 09 11:21 AM