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Rentech Nitrogen Partners, L.P. (NYSE:RNF)

Q3 2012 Earnings Conference Call

November 8, 2012 12:00 ET

Executives

Julie Cafarella - VP, IR & Communications

Hunt Ramsbottom - CEO

Dan Cohrs - CFO

Analysts

Brent Rystrom - Feltl

Ted Drangula - Morgan Stanley

Derek Fernandes - Brean Capital

Justin Orlando - Dolphin Limited Partnership

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Rentech Nitrogen Third Quarter 2012 Earnings Call. During today's presentation, all participants will be in a listen-only mode. And afterwards, we will conduct a question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded, Thursday, November 8, 2012.

And I would now like to turn the conference over to Ms. Julie Cafarella, Vice President of Investor Relations and Communications. Please go ahead, ma'am.

Julie Cafarella

Thank you. Welcome to Rentech Nitrogen’s conference call for the third quarter ended September 30, 2012. During this call, Hunt Ramsbottom, CEO of Rentech Nitrogen will summarize the partnership's activities during the quarter. Dan Cohrs, our Chief Financial Officer will give a financial review of the period and provide comments on Rentech Nitrogen’s financial position. We will then open the lines for questions. We ask that you limit yourself to one question, so that we may get to as many of your questions as possible.

Please be advised that certain information discussed on this conference call will contain forward-looking statements. They can be identified by the use of terminology such as may, will, expect, believe, and other comparable terms. You are cautioned that while forward-looking statements reflect our good faith, belief, and best judgment based upon current information, they are not guarantees of future performance, and are subject to known and unknown risks and uncertainties and risk factors detailed from time-to-time in the partnership periodic reports and registration statements filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The forward-looking statements in this call are made as of November 8, 2012. And Rentech Nitrogen does not undertake to revise or update these forward-looking statements, except to the extent that it is required to do so under applicable law.

In addition, today’s presentation includes various non-GAAP financial measures. The disclosures related to such non-GAAP measures including reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures are included in our 2012 third quarter earnings press release that is available on our website.

Now, I would like to turn the call over to Hunt Ramsbottom, CEO of Rentech Nitrogen.

Hunt Ramsbottom

Good morning everyone, and thank you for joining us today. I am pleased to say, we reported solid third quarter results and just last week closed our acquisition of Agrifos, the leading producer of synthetic granulated ammonium sulfate fertilizer in North America. The production facility is located in Pasadena, Texas. The acquisition is expected to be accretive to cash distributions. Beginning in 2013, it provides the number of diversification benefits and growth opportunities.

I'll first summarize the acquisition for those of you who did not join our conference call last week and then I will review our results for the third quarter. The Pasadena facility is the largest producer of synthetic granulated ammonium sulfate fertilizer or AS in North America. Synthetic granulated AS is a higher quality product and commands a price premium compared to other main forms of AS, which is a byproduct of the capital (indiscernible) process.

AS sales currently account for approximately 82% of the plant's revenues. The plant’s other products include ammonium thiosulfate fertilizer, or ATS, and sulfuric acid, or SA. The plant uses ammonia and sulfur as its raw materials to produce these products. Product margins are relatively stable and the majority of the products are sold within the U.S. and Brazil. The plant is strategically located on the Houston ship channel with access to vessels, barge, rail, and highways. In conjunction with the closing the acquisition, we amended our existing debt facility and expanding our borrowing base from $135 million to $300 million.

The initial purchase price of the acquisition was $158 million and represents a multiple of 6.3 times 2013 forecasted EBITDA for the plant before one-time transition and integration costs. A $138 million of the initial purchase price was provided in cash through the amended credit facility. The remainder of the purchase price was provided in the form of 538,000, 793 common units of Rentech Nitrogen valued at approximately $20 million. Some of these units are held in escrow and the remaining units have a six-month lockup period.

Capacity in the facility provides an excellent ammonia hedge for our East Dubuque facility. As ammonia upgrading operation, the Pasadena plant buys approximately the same amount of ammonia with our East Dubuque operation sells. The plant buys ammonia at lower Tampa-based prices while our East Dubuque facility sells ammonia at higher Corn Belt prices, allowing the consolidated business to capture the basis premium between Tampa and Corn Belt pricing and reduced the overall exposure to the variability of ammonia prices.

The acquisition should increase the stability of our margins. Prices and product margins for ammonium sulfate generally have lower volatilities and those are the principal products at East Dubuque. AS prices have historically correlated with the prices of its raw materials, ammonia and sulfur. The acquisition diversifies our crop from customer concentration. The East Dubuque plant sells products that are applied mostly to corn, but ammonium sulfate to be applied to multiple crops such as soybeans, potatoes, cotton, alfalfa and wheat as well as corn. The acquisition also expands our customer base from being concentrated on Mid Corn Belt to other regions in the United States and into South America.

With the addition of another site located at different regions Rentech Nitrogen now have in multiple locations and therefore be less vulnerable to site specific events. Sales of the East Dubuque facility are currently weighted towards the fall and spring application periods for corn in the Midwest. AS from the Pasadena plant was applied to multiple crops in multiple regions including Brazil with application periods throughout the year which should reduce the seasonality of Rentech Nitrogen’s consolidated sales. Last, with a number of expansion and operational enhancement opportunities with the Pasadena plant which could provide multi-year growth. We’ve identified three near term projects including a de-bottlenecking project to increase AS production, a power co-generation projects and term loan opportunities.

These growth opportunities at the Pasadena site combined with the expansions underway at the East Dubuque facility should generate significant incremental cash for the partnership. We expect to increase ammonium sulfate capacity in the Pasadena plant by 20% from 1,715 tons per day to 2,100 tons per day next year. This project will maximize production of the highest margin product AS and reduce sales of the lowest margin product SA. This project will be funded through the capacity under the new debt facility. And additional AS production is expected to contribute to cash distributions beginning in the second half of 2014.

Now, I’ll walk you trough the results for the quarter and our outlook. For the third quarter we generated net income of $0.75 per unit driven by lower natural gas costs and higher sales volume. Rentech Nitrogen generated strong cash flow resulting in third quarter cash distributions of $0.85 per unit. Our natural gas hedging strategy resulted in average net gas cost of $3.14 per MMBtu this quarter compared to $4.74 for the third quarter last year.

Lower natural gas cost combined with stronger product prices contributed to gross margins of 58%, up significantly from 33% for the same quarter last year. Our revenue was significantly higher this quarter compared to last year primarily due to higher deliveries. The timing of our shipments last year was affected by the 2011 turnaround. With fewer tons available for sale last year we secured a larger percentage of our sales for delivery in the fourth quarter of 2011 which resulted in reduced deliveries in the third quarter.

The warm, dry weather during the second quarter of 2012 reduced UAN sales volume resulting in additional product available for delivery in the third quarter of 2012. We ended the second quarter with commitments on 78% of our forecasted ammonia deliveries for the year. With a very few ammonia tons left for sale for this year, we maximized sales prices and sold the remaining tons as the ammonia prices rose. We now have delivered or have purchased commitments with the 100% of our forecasted deliveries of ammonia and UAN for 2012. We’ve already purchased or contracted at fixed prices all of the natural gas required to produce these products.

We’re reiterating our guidance for 2012 of cash available for distribution to be in excess of $126 million or $3.30 per unit and EBITDA to be in excess of $130 million. This guidance includes the expected impact of business development expenses into SG&A attributed to the Agrifos acquisition, the contribution of the Pasadena plant operations and a five day outage at the East Dubuque facility that occurred in early November. The fall harvest in our market is nearly complete several weeks earlier than the typical which rains as well as optimal solar temperatures have set the stage for an early start for fall application.

As of October 30 ammonia application was in full stride into the Corn Belt 2012, ’13 ending corn stocks are forecasted to be at or near record low levels of 450 million and 650 million bushels as a result of the drought For this reason multiple forecasting services are projecting corn plantings to exceed 96 million acres next year. We believe this will continue to drive strong nitrogen demand in 2013. Since we last reported in August we saw additional ammonia and UAN tons for spring 2013 delivery. Current spring ‘13 posted prices for ammonia and UAN or $810 and $360 per ton respectively. We expect spring 2013 activity to pick up once again the fall application is completed.

Our 2013 distributions should benefit from strong pricing and demand for the nitrogen products produced at East Dubuque facility. The additional 19,250 tons from the urea/DEF expansion will come online at the end of this year and provides an incremental increase to the 2013 distributions. 2013 cash distributions will also benefit from the accretive nature of our acquisition of the Pasadena facility. We expect that plant to generate approximately $25 million EBITDA in 2013 excluding one-time integration and transition costs. The bi-annual turnaround at East Dubuque facility is scheduled to take place in the fall of 2013. The turnaround is anticipated to take up to four weeks, which is longer than the typical 18 to 25 days due to the fact that the final tie-ins of the ammonia production capacity expansion will occur during the scheduled turnaround to minimize plant downtime.

During this time, the plant's ammonia and UAN units will be offline, and therefore ammonia and UAN production and sales volume during 2013 are expected to be lower than in 2012. Approximately, $3 million to $5 million of turnaround expenses are anticipated to be incurred in cost of sales in the fall of 2013. In 2014, we expect gas distributions to benefit from additional 70,000 annual tons of ammonia production at East Dubuque, which should come online at the end of 2013. And the additional 115,000 annual tons of ammonium sulfate production in Pasadena, which should come online in the second half of 2014.

In summary, we are pleased that the fall harvest is nearly complete, ahead of schedule, and ammonia applications begun in preparation for an anticipated strong 2013 planting season. We believe the acquisition of the Pasadena facility has built a stronger company by diversifying our business and providing us with multiple growth opportunities. The growth opportunities of the Pasadena plants and the accretive nature of the transaction should add the cash generated by the East Dubuque facility, and the growth in cash flow we expect in 2013 and 2014 from our existing expansion projects currently underway at the plant.

I'll now hand the call over to Dan for additional color on the quarter and transaction. Dan?

Dan Cohrs

Thank you. Good morning everyone. The big event for us was the acquisition of Agrifos fertilizer plant in Pasadena. We've gotten off to a very good start with the integration activities, and we look for a significant contribution from the Pasadena plant in 2013. Since this business is very different from the East Dubuque models, we provided quite a bit of detail about how it works on the call last week. The presentation with all of that information is posted on our website. Since we have just closed on this acquisition, the reported results for the third quarter do not include any effect to the Pasadena plant.

For the third quarter, we reported very solid results with higher sales volumes and lower gas costs. Revenues for this quarter compared to the quarter last year were up 56%. Remember in 2011, we had a turnaround which meant that we had less product sale, and we also shifted some sales from the third quarter into the fourth quarter, so that we could achieve higher prices on that product. Gross profit this quarter is at 58% compared to 33% in the quarter a year ago. That improvement showed the effect of lowering that gas prices and higher sales volumes and also in the quarter last year we had $4.5 million in turnaround expenses running through the P&L.

SG&A expenses are up due to the fact that we became a public company, we have about $1.1 million of non-cash comp expense running through that we didn’t have before as well as other public company costs. And we have about $1.7 million of business development expenses, which essentially are cost related to the Agrifos acquisition. All of that led to EBITDA this quarter of $32.9 million, a big increase compared to $12.9 million in the quarter last year.

For the nine months ending September 30, the trends and explanations were very similar. Revenues year-to-date were up 24% that shows higher sales prices for all products and higher volume for ammonia. Gross product - sorry gross profit margin is up to 61% from 44% last year. Again we have $4.5 million of turnaround expenses last year, and we are seeing the benefits of higher sales prices across the board, higher volumes for ammonia, as well as a significant improvement in gas costs. SG&A again is up because of public company expenses, non-cash comp, and costs related to the Agrifos acquisition. For this full year-to-date we have about $2 million of M&A expenses that we’ve recognized, all that leads to EBITDA in year-to-date at $99.7 million, up from $62.7 million last year. And we closed the quarter with $55.5 million of cash.

Looking at our product deliveries for the third quarter, ammonia deliveries were up 72% from last year, year-to-date up 25%. UAN this quarter up 43%, last year which is actually flat to last year for the year-to-date period. We had $42,000 in the quarter and $116,000 year-to-date of revenue from the sale of emission credits due to reductions in emissions of N2O at the plant. Pricing was relatively flat this quarter of both ammonia and UAN prices were down just a small amount, 2% in the case of ammonia, 1% in the case of UAN compared to the third quarter last year.

Looking at the year to date numbers ammonia prices were up 6%, UAN up 13%. We are seeing some significant benefits from lower gas prices flowing through our P&L. We’ve discussed in the past that there are some significant lags as gas prices dropped there are lags in terms of how they flow through the P&L. So, if we focus on cost of gas in our cost of goods sold quarter-over-quarter we’re seeing $3.14 in most recent quarter due to significant drop from $4.74 in the quarter a year ago. The year-to-date numbers were similar this year $3.63 versus $4.78 in the year-to-date period last year.

On August 14th, we’ve had cash distribution for the second quarter of $1.17 per unit to our common unit holders. We can pay cash distribution for the third quarter of $0.85 per unit on November 14th payable to unit holders of record as of November 7th. This distribution will bring cumulative distribution since our IPO to $3.08 per unit. Of that amount $2.55 relates to 2012 and $0.53 relates to the period in 2011 from the IPO through the end of the year. We planned to pay the next distribution which will cover the fourth quarter on or about February 14th. As Hunt mentioned we are reiterating our guidance for 2012 that cash available for distribution should exceed $3.30 per unit, a total of $126 million.

We updated the components of that calculation in our press release issued today. Because it’s late in the year and due to expenses of the acquisition, we don’t expect the Pasadena plant to have a material impact on cash distributions per unit for the fourth quarter of 2012. We do expect Agrifos transaction to be accretive to cash available for distribution per unit beginning in 2013. We expect the Pasadena facility to generate about $20 million in operating income and about $25 million in EBITDA in 2013 excluding one-time integration and transition cost. That operating income number may change as we do our acquisition accounting, but that would not affect the EBITDA forecast.

The majority of the acquisitions being financed with debt at LIBOR plus 375 basis points which provides a significantly lower cost of capital than with the issuance of new units. Even after amortization payments which increased the value of equity, we expect the acquisition to be accretive. They will be even more accretive if we focus appropriately only on the cost of capital and looks at accretion of cash distributions per unit after interest expense, but before amortization of debt. To finance the transaction we amended our credit facilities and increase our borrowing days from $135 million to $300 million. The additional $155 million in capacity is comprised of $7 million of cash available for CapEx and OpEx.

The cash portion of the purchase price, which was up $138 million, $10 million were estimated transaction costs and fees plus a $10 million upsizing of the existing CapEx term loan facility, which was un-drawn at closing, but maybe used to partially fund the AS de-bottlenecking project. We have a $35 million accordion facility, which can be used as long as lenders agree to fund us with no other approvals from the bank group. We could partially utilize the accordion feature to pay for the cogeneration project that we are considering at the Pasadena plant. These credit facilities give us a lot of flexibility to fund our capital program both at East Dubuque and at our new Pasadena facility incurring interest expense only as we draw on the facilities to fund the CapEx. We continue to have a $35 million undrawn revolver and a comfortable cash balance. The cost of capital at LIBOR plus 375 is significantly lower than the cost additionally in new units.

We expect about $15 million in-depth service next year, which includes $7.75 million in amortization payments. Although, we are not forecasting consolidated or East Dubuque results for 2013 today, I'll give you a bit of little color on our CapEx plan and funding. Maintenance CapEx at East Dubuque should be fairly comparable to this year. We expect $3 million to $5 million of turnaround cost to run through cost of sales for the scheduled biannual turnaround. The CapEx related to the ammonia expansion will be funded by the $100 million CapEx facility. We expect the facility to be about half drawn at the end of this year and fully drawn by the end of next year. We project maintenance CapEx funded by cash generated from operations at the Pasadena plant to be between $5 million and $7 million for the next several years. During that time, we expect improvement CapEx at Pasadena, including the cost to increase production of ammonium sulfate to be funded by excess debt proceeds from the transaction term loan and the $10 million CapEx facility for the plant.

I'll now turn the call over to the operator and then Hunt and I will answer questions.

Question-and-Answer Session

Operator

Absolutely, thank you. (Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Brent Rystrom with Feltl. Please go ahead.

Brent Rystrom - Feltl

Just couple of quick questions, the business development expenses of $1.7 million, did all of that fall under SG&A or some of that elsewhere?

Dan Cohrs

That’s running through SG&A.

Brent Rystrom - Feltl

And then on the Agrifos acquisition, any particular crop concentration in the AS business, is there a particular crop with 20%, 30%, 40% of the AS sales?

Hunt Ramsbottom

(Indiscernible) question.

Dan Cohrs

Yeah, one of the benefits that we saw in getting involved in the AS business was the fact that kind of diversified us from corn, so ammonium sulfate has the broad using spectrum amongst multiple crops that we have talked about before. So, corn is still important, but AS is used in a lot of different crops. Soybeans, canola specifically are good consumers brand.

Brent Rystrom - Feltl

Okay. Do you know which might be the biggest crop use?

Dan Cohrs

I think still corn is the dominant user of AS followed by soybeans and canola about the same level. And then when we are moving offshore soybeans in the Brazilian market, so I guess if we throw our offshore tonnage in there, soybeans then would fall to the front of the list.

Brent Rystrom - Feltl

Okay. And then kind of curiosity given the pricing on where ammonia and UAN is, should we be thinking on the models in the first half of next year maybe a little more shift in the UAN and a little less ammonia as far as the end of the product sales?

Hunt Ramsbottom

I don’t think we see different mix going in the next year.

Brent Rystrom - Feltl

Just with the pricing, you don’t think to promise a lot.

Hunt Ramsbottom

Yeah. Specifically, Brent, and when you are talking the first quarter, that’s a fill period for both product lines. The ammonia season for the fall that we are applying the tons right now in still in full swing yet to see if it's going to be as big as last year or not. We think it's going to be very solid. And with that said, until we really get into the Q2 period, we won't see the nitrogen choice at the (low).

Brent Rystrom - Feltl

And then my final question, any particular benefits that you are seeing that you can qualify as far as the impact of some people not being able to barge product?

Hunt Ramsbottom

It was a significant factor for some companies, the availability of nitric compounds and specifically urea I think the creative marketing companies not raise to circumvent the slow turns. And in our opinion, there is adequate nitrogen upstream. So, I don’t think we are going to see any significant impact from that, Brent.

Operator

And our next question is from the line of Ted Drangula with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead Ted.

Ted Drangula - Morgan Stanley

I guess I’ve a couple of questions on just how the dynamics in the nitrogen market now looks like the urea market seems to be under some pressure here of late and I mean it seems like that UAN prices have been a little bit sluggish. Do you think that’s something that you will not really experience at all because you very much booked all of our business or how do you think that goes into next year, is there any effect going into the first quarter or in the first half of next year?

Hunt Ramsbottom

Well, I’ll first adjust this year as I said in the prepared remarks this year is pretty much done and locked in and Marc if you want to give some color on next year what you are seeing.

Unidentified Company Speaker

Yes I think one I would agree with your comments. Urea has been under some pressure, I think most of the people in the industry attribute that to the aggressive selling during the Chinese low-imports or low-export tariff season. UAN is hanging in there still probably on a new (indiscernible) basis in the low 300s. I want to go back to where we were a year ago about this time, markets were little bit under pressure, buyers reluctant to get longer and further upcoming year. And we saw a nice rally in the market that kind of caught by our second half of January. So, in a lot of ways it seems to us the market is tracking in the similar fashion and really feels like there maybe another raise up after we turn the corner into early 2013.

Ted Drangula - Morgan Stanley

And then just a follow-up, the - obviously the prices you talked about for next year it sounds pretty good. Have you given any specifics on how much - an update on how much your product is sold, so I think you maybe gave well in the prepared remarks that I missed, but I guess more the philosophy like are those good prices if there was liquidity out there, would you sell 100% of the business?

Hunt Ramsbottom

Yeah, I mean we haven’t given a view on how much we sold, but the answer to your second question is we have sold - we would sell and if the pricing and liquidity were there we would sell them. We did go back a few years in 2008, I think it was 2009 when the market was $1000 a ton, we sold everything we had in the fall just because there was aggressive buyers out there and great pricing so we won’t be rationale about that.

Operator

Our next question is from the line of Lucas Pipes with Brean Capital. Please go ahead Mr. Pipes.

Derek Fernandes - Brean Capital

Hello this is actually Derek Fernandes on behalf of Lucas Pipes. Thank you very much for taking our questions.

Hunt Ramsbottom

Hi Derek.

Derek Fernandes - Brean Capital

First of all I was - we’re wondering about the turnaround in the fall of 2013 how - have you given any additional color on how volumes will be affected by this?

Hunt Ramsbottom

We haven’t given volumes but you can do the math that we’re down for up to four weeks, you can do the math on the production for the year and work it from that.

Derek Fernandes - Brean Capital

I see.

Hunt Ramsbottom

Now, it’s an approximate pricing for the year, but we had it in the forecast.

Derek Fernandes - Brean Capital

Okay, okay. And then switching gears on the DEF products, do you guys have any additional color on possibly the margins there?

Hunt Ramsbottom

We are –we have not given color on the margins Marc I think will elaborate.

Unidentified Company Speaker

Yeah, Derek. We’re not going to give specific on what we’re selling for other than we’ll stand by our statements all along that its given as the higher return than selling the urea into the Ag market.

Operator

And our last question from the line of Justin Orlando with Dolphin Limited Partnership. Please go ahead Mr. Orlando.

Justin Orlando - Dolphin Limited Partnership

Good. I wanted to congratulate Julie it sounds like there is somebody to congratulate her about.

Hunt Ramsbottom

Well, she is out of the room...

Justin Orlando - Dolphin Limited Partnership

So, with the current trends in the federal ordinary income tax rate do you expect you’re going to get some more turnover in unit ownership here, so that people can walk any lower federal rates and the deferrals in ‘12 and then maybe reestablished in ’13 how are you guys thinking about that?

Hunt Ramsbottom

Yeah I think what happens in Washington, but I think our view is anybody’s best guess on what’s going to happen if the rates go up I think we are well positioned. But I had (indiscernible) we frankly couldn’t predict that and I don’t want to predict that. So, that’s going to be up to the individual.

Operator

And there are no more questions on the phone lines at the moment. And I will now turn the call back to you. Please continue with your presentation or closing remarks.

Julie Cafarella

Thank you. In summary we are very excited about Rentech Nitrogen business. Our business has been strengthened by the acquisition of the Pasadena fertilizer facility. We should expect it to be accretive to cash distribution beginning in 2013. The Pasadena plant incremental cash distribution which when combined with the contribution when the Urea/DEF expansion and strong nitrogen demand and product typing should result in solid performance for the consolidated business next year. The ammonia and AS expansion projects scheduled to come online in 2013 should position the companies out for incremental growth in cash distributions in 2013. We would like to thank everyone who participated on the call today. Please contact me if you have any questions about the quarter. Thank you.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude our conference call for today. We thank you for your participation and ask that you please disconnect your lines. Have a great day everyone.

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