Will Central Banks' Correlated Efforts Reverse the Market's Direction?
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Arguments are being made which suggest that 'fighting this market is like fighting all central banks in the world.' That clearly seems to be true because they are doing their best to halt the declines in Global markets. However, those same central banks are also fighting a void in demand that is immediately irreversible.
In addition, fighting the Fed isn't as bad as it is cracked up to be. In fact, in the past 10 years going with the flow of Interest Rates has been much more prosperous than going against them. IE, when rates are increasing buy the market, and when rates are declining short the market. It has worked. From here people are already talking about more rate cuts.
Here's an article I wrote in January about this exact subject. In addition, this past weekend I offered evidence of a substantial void in demand which is something that cannot be changed, regardless of the Central Bank Efforts.
My opinion:
- The global cut was a good gesture but...
- It proves just how weak the global economy is
- It proves that central banks are concerned about a collapse
- It proves that the banks expect an even weaker economy ahead.
- It does not prove that the Markets are getting healthier
- It does not prove that the Market has bottomed
- It does not suggest that the economy will stabilize
- It does nothing to change demand variables.
This might even be the last arrow in the quiver. What else can the Fed do? Buy more bad debt? Take Interest rates to zero?
Side note: This rate cut notwithstanding, some of the recent government policy will make a bad situation much worse over time.
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