With unemployment the highest in six years, GDP growth struggling to remain positive, and ISM numbers repeatedly below 50, we continue to wonder why a recession has not been declared. Traditionally recessions are not declared until after the fact, in many cases even a year after the have begun. Below we highlight the recent significant recessions and stock market performance during them.
As shown, in each case the stock market bottoms over a month before the official end of the recession. As shown by the "period" column under market bottoms, on average the S&P 500 bottoms about half way through the recession and rallies over 25% from the bottom to the official end.
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