Market Performance During Past Recessions

With unemployment the highest in six years, GDP growth struggling to remain positive, and ISM numbers repeatedly below 50, we continue to wonder why a recession has not been declared.  Traditionally recessions are not declared until after the fact, in many cases even a year after the have begun.  Below we highlight the recent significant recessions and stock market performance during them. 

As shown, in each case the stock market bottoms over a month before the official end of the recession.  As shown by the "period" column under market bottoms, on average the S&P 500 bottoms about half way through the recession and rallies over 25% from the bottom to the official end.

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Comments

[Urbane Gori...:]

The Bush administration's practice is to treat the American public as children. Don't tell us about the bogey-man, the pedophiliac next door, or the fact that Dad just lost his job. Spin! Spin! Spin! .. Personally, I find it offensive and I'll be glad to have a new President in January.

GOP for Obama.

jegan ;-)

2008 Oct 13 05:31 PM

[Freedoms Truth:]

"GOP for Obama."
What a maroon! An inObama has been telling you lies not just about you but about himself (check out "Obama Nation" for the real Obama bio, not the whitewashed cr*p that the Obamedia is feeding us all). He went from wanting payroll, capital gains, corporate and income tax hikes to lying about his tax plans, calling a welfare giveaway a 'tax cut' and claiming the Bush tax cut on the middle class for his own.

It's offensive that you say "The Bush administration's practice is to treat the American public as children" when you blithely miss how Obama and the Democrats running the Congress not just treat us like children, but act like children themselves. Finger-pointing and doing everything to escape responsibility, always blaming someone else. Pelosi is the worst and most incompetent speaker in our history, and on her watch the stock market melted down while oil rose. All she does is oppose drilling call for more taxes and spending, bash companies, and push for earmark pork-barrel corrupt giveaways. She and the Democrats in Congress have been an utter drag on the economy.

" I'll be glad to have a new President in January." It would be MORE IMPORTANT to get a new CONGRESS in there as well. Change is coming, but if the Democrats are running everything, it is change for the worse. Do we really want a Democrat free hand on the economy!?!? That's nuts.

PS. Obama is the new Bush.

2008 Oct 13 10:34 PM

[sumosama:]

BTW, a rececession has a precise definition...look it up!

2008 Oct 14 02:26 PM

[8 Alpha-Zulu:]

Freedoms', you are right about Pelosi, the woman is an absolute idiot; actually, a village idiot typically has more sense than she has ever shown the American public. She has, to my knowledge, done nothing constructive with her position of power and has engendered ill will with all of those that stand on the other side of the isle from her.
However, Mr. Egan is correct about ol'Dubya, i'm afraid. Bush and his administration resembles that totally ignorant (street-smarts) parent that filters information in a completely and totally self serving manner to avoid anything that might retard or hinder their position of authority (ridiculously and arrogantly perceived in Bush's case). I was duped by the guy (was a "Very Large" supporter of him and the GOP through him once) and believe him to have turned out very much like Ms. Pelosi when it comes to brain power, transparency ability to get things accomplished and just plain street smart. Definitely one of my biggest mistakes in life; supporting him and the GOP. Kinda reminds me of the Nixon era; only Nixon wasn't a ding-dong like his predecessor in interest.

2008 Oct 14 06:15 PM