Trying to Make Sense of Cramer's Advice 37 comments
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Here’s a recent screenshot of TheStreet.com:
In the first article, he is pessimistic about the outcome of a concerted financial rescue plan and offers the kind of target that I’m used to seeing from Bob Prechter:
Why I’m Negative Now (2:02 PM Sunday)
This strategy, which I presume will not be adopted, but which makes the most sense, would allow for shotgun weddings for all the weak banks to eliminate the bleeding. Without this kind of action I am reverting to a downside target of 6,700 for Monday and then 4,700 for Tuesday in keeping with the hopeful ‘87 playbook.
A few hours later, as Asian markets and overnight futures traded higher showing confidence back in the markets, he writes:
Don’t Fade the Opening (9:13 PM Sunday)
I say, play it out, don’t sell. Let’s see if we can’t get something going for a couple of days, unless you have some stock you bought into the down-600 moments from Friday. Even if you are down a lot, you are being too greedy…
Within a time span of a few hours, he has contradicted himself. But that’s not all. Here he is, just a few days ago telling people to sell and take their money out of the market:
Whatever money you may need for the next five years, please take it out of the stock market right now, this week…I don’t want people to get hurt in the market.
Got that, Cramerica? Clear as mud, right? Booya!
It looks like Cramer is just throwing everything at the wall and hoping something will stick. Whatever scenario plays out, he will have ample “opinions” to choose from and point to, and many others to conveniently sweep under the rug.
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This article has 37 comments:
We don't look to someone like Cramer for *guidance*... we look to him to tell us what we already feel... either by agreement or contrast, he pronounces the "buzz" on the street, not the prognostication.
We don't look to someone like Cramer for *guidance*... we look to him to tell us what we already feel... either by agreement or contrast, he pronounces the "buzz" on the street, not the prognostication.
www.thestreet.com/p/rm...
Anyone who shorted or sold those names when he made that call, made out very well.
Now, if you read his comments below the list, you can see that Wm, CFC amd GM were on his RADAR too. His advice on them was crap, but the fact is that they were on his screen.
The best way to use Cramer's information is to glean it for data points you had not considered recently and then vet the pro/con arguments for each name he mentions.
When Cramer mentions something of his own accord as he did in March '07, it's a good idea to evaluate the names he mentions very carefully.
Odds are half the calls that you listen to are coming from a phone bank in the back room of his own people making phone calls praising him.
I'm trying to remember the money talk show that was on the radio 15 - 20 years ago that thats what they found ..... it was a whole sham and the host of that show went to prison for a good 10 years.
Just like Cramer brags about buy shares for his charitable trust ........ ya 100 shares.
Half that stuff is $40 stock ...... who weeee that makes a big impression, the multi millionaire just put $4000 dollars out there with the charatable trust able to make capital gaines on that money.
Ok I give him credit for doing something but I'm guessing people are thinking his charitable trust has a lot more money in it ,then it does.
Yep Cramer's track record id way worse then his followers know ........ if you dont bielive it just look at what you have lost.
YOUR NOT ALONE ...... He is doing it to everyone else too........ They just don't take those phone calls on LIGHTNING ROUND.
I have the daily "Cramer" emails from SA, so I can search back through easily and see the contradictions. Google at $500 was a "buy of a lifetime"; a couple of weeks later, Google at $400 was overpriced. Buy Apple at $140, but then don't buy at $100.
Very recently, doing the opposite of Cramer was proving to be very lucrative. On that, it's too bad that he's now openly taking both positions. I was enjoying doing the opposite.
www.bloggingstocks.com.../
........than...maybe that is his oblation to the Financial Gods.....
If you actually read through the two clippings posted above, he says he's negative BEFORE there was a european plan on the table last night and it seemed like Morgan would go under. That's the 4700 target. Today he said basically don't fight the tape, although if you read all his comments he's not that impressed with today's rally.
To me it's a classic suckers rally and I'll short into it. No volume, just retail and short covering.
Of course Cramer reverses himself all the time, and in this volatility it might be hard not to, but he has not acknowledged how ghastly his mistakes have been with some of the above names. He put his viewers on 52 week high momentum plays that would have broke anyone if they followed his advice down the wire. He's mispredicted the oil pull back, the commodity crash, and set many naive investor up to take a bath. The fact that he continues to tout the same stocks regardless of their performance maybe worse than reversing field without acknowledgement.
Bottom line, like any advice, you can look for insight, but you must discount the tips and be highly selective based on researchable criteria and trends. I will admit that I have played a very few selective Cramer tips and generally did quite poorly with them, but on the other hand his ideas caused me to consider other ideas, sectors and strategies that I wouldn't other wise have. I feel lucky to have avoided his biggest losing touts such as CHK and FSLR.
I like Cramer but the guy is shot full of arrows from his recs in this market.
1st. He is human and makes mistakes.. he owns them and at least is willing to say he screwed up. You forget he also has money in the game? You think he gets a pass and doesn't loose money or something? If you can say he has not taught you anything (positive) by watching his show I say your either not being straight up or just hate the man that bad that you will fabricate a story.
I will admit he has a tendency to be a stark raving madman but I will call that conviction. I follow his Actioners trust and I know he lost his ass too. Nobody got out for free. Nobody!!
But I do know he bought all he way down. hey so did Buffet, but why doesn't anybody call him a loon? Oh, it must be because Cramer says buy buy by and it the market goes south hard and fast.. doesn't he have the responsibility to at least redirect that energy to get the hell out now? What is so wrong with that. If you don't like him.. bail geze so many haters and I guess nobody ever made a dime on his due diligence.
Come on. Wadexyz, right above me speaks some truth. Don't watch him. If you cannot handle it any more, don't watch him. It is that easy. But then if he is that bad go hang with Fuld and the rest of thosefrickin theives.
Would it help any of you haters if CEO's came on his show and he called these guys liars when they started giving fundies? Woa, I might be onto something. Would that make you happy? So they come on. Tout their corp/company and then he says.. in essence.. he will endorse it because the man is a friend of the show, a long time personal friend, one to be believed and then the stocks gets asskicked. WTF? Thats Cramer's fault?
Or.. they come on the show open their mouth and then are blasphemed all the way out the door "those lying bastards!" We, and I am using that loosly here, don't work that way. You want to believe your friends especially if there is that much dough riding on their reputation.
Bottom line here folks is hate if you must but at least pick the right team to hate and Cramer is not that guy. Oh and by the way, who stands up and calls the spade a spade when they are screwing the pooch on your dime? Yup you guessed it again. As I have said I am not a favorite fan but I appreciate what he has done for me tryhing to keep me in the game. What homework I do is because of him ranting all the time about what it takes to navigate this violent market. I will now go get my free lunch (divvies)
later haters
Everytime I have been foolish enough to follow one of his picks,,I HAVE LOST MONEY....................
Do your own thing, don't listen to cramer.
Never listen to this stupid guy... period!!!!
www.thestreet.com/fund...
They aren't:
marketprognosticator.b...
What did you suggest last weekend?
As far as reversing himself the market did also. I recall one AM the futures were up 300 then at 0 within minutes. Did we not have a 700 decline turn into a +300 rally then a 100 decline.
I was not like throwing darts but dropping cluster bombs over a wide area otherwise Cramer would miss but I'll give the man kudos for trying. I've made money doing oppsite of what he suggests but I usually do my own homework and then flip a coin. In this market coin flipping is about as scientific and you can get.
How do you call that? Again what did you suggest.
Lightning Roung: "Microsoft, like a lot of stocks, went up Monday, I can’t recommend it at present levels after it just moved 3 points."
Stop Trading: "[Microsoft is] a cheap stock. Microsoft shouldn't be that cheap, given the fact that it's got a powerful franchise and how they dodged the bullet with Yahoo!"
Yes people make mistakes. Some people calm down, focus, learn from their mistakes, and become a better professional. Some, not all.
What could possibly be your motive.. hmmmm?
If there was a way to hold financial analysts' be accountable for their forecasts, all this nonsense would cease ....