Seeking Alpha
Registered investment advisor, macro, ETF investing
Profile| Send Message| ()  

In the past, we have just focused on bull and bear markets for the Dow since World War II because the US was still essentially an emerging market prior to then.  However, since the current market is unlike anything seen since the early 1900s, we've taken the date range back further. 

Since the end of World War II, there have only been 13 bear markets and 12 bull markets using the standard 20% rally and decline measure.  The average bull or bear since then has lasted 911 calendar days.  From 1900 to 1946, there were 20 bulls and 20 bears.  From 1929 to 1934 alone, there were 9 bears and 8 bulls, and the average bull or bear lasted just 105 calendar days. 

Since volatility is currently at levels not seen since the 1930s, are we in store for a market where 20% rallies and declines become commonplace again?  It's definitely a possibility.  With a gain of 11% yesterday, many are now even talking about a new bull market occurring in a matter of days.  To hit the 20% gain threshold, the Dow needs to get back to 10,141.43, which is still a long ways away from the Dow's current level of 9,300.

click to enlarge

Bullbears

Source: Historical Bull and Bear Markets for the Dow: 1900-Present