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  • Equity Allocations Match 2007 Levels
    Today, 6:01 PM BND, SPY, DIA Comment!

    Summary

    • Stock and stock fund allocations are the highest they've been since June 2007.
    • Cash allocations remain below their historical average for the 40th month in a row.
    • Investors weigh in on their biggest asset allocation mistakes during this bull market.
  • AAII Sentiment Survey: Optimism Rebounds
    Thu, Mar. 26 SPY, IVV, VOO 3 Comments

    Summary

    • Bullish sentiment rebounded mightily, but remains below its historical average.
    • Neutral sentiment remains above its historical average for the 12th consecutive week.
    • Responses to the Fed's recent language change were extremely mixed.
  • AAII Sentiment Survey: Optimism Falls To A 2-Year Low
    Thu, Mar. 19 SPY, IVV, VOO 7 Comments

    Summary

    • Bullish sentiment fell to a two-year low, tied with an April 2014 reading for its lowest level since April 2013.
    • Neutral sentiment stayed above its historical average for the 11th straight week.
    • Unusually high levels of neutral sentiment have been correlated with better-than-average market performance over the following six- and 12-month periods.
  • AAII Sentiment Survey: Neutral Sentiment Surges; Optimism Plunges
    Thu, Mar. 12 DIA, SPY, QQQ Comment!

    Summary

    • Neutral sentiment surged up as bearish and bullish sentiment declined.
    • Bearish sentiment remains below its historical average for the 43rd time in 52 weeks.
    • Half of polled investors think the bull market will last into a seventh year.
  • AAII Sentiment Survey: Pessimism Rebounds For A Second Week
    Thu, Mar. 5 SPY, IVV, VOO Comment!

    Summary

    • Pessimism continues to rebound slightly from an unusually low level.
    • Bullish sentiment is at a four-week low, but still above its historical average.
    • Fourth-quarter earnings reports have made little impact on investor attitudes, though some became more bearish as a result.
  • February AAII Asset Allocation Survey: Equity Allocations At Second-Highest Level Since 2007
    Wed, Mar. 4 SPY, IVV, VOO Comment!

    Summary

    • February was the 23rd consecutive month with equity allocations above the historical average.
    • Bond and bond fund allocations are below the historical average for the ninth straight month.
    • Market conditions, direction, valuation and the strength of the S&P 500 affected investor allocations.
  • AAII Sentiment Survey: Optimism Moderates, Remains Above Average
    Thu, Feb. 26 SPY, DIA, QQQ 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Optimism remains above its historical average for the 25th time in 29 weeks.
    • Pessimism is bordering an unusually low level.
    • Just under half of polled investors think that stocks are overvalued.
  • AAII Sentiment Survey: Optimism Surges To Second Highest Level Of 2015
    Thu, Feb. 19 SPY, IVV, VOO 4 Comments

    Summary

    • Bullish sentiment is at its highest level since the beginning of 2015.
    • Neutral sentiment declined but is still above its average for the 7th consecutive week.
    • Energy prices, earnings growth and economic expansion are keeping investors optimistic.
  • AAII Sentiment Survey: Pessimism Jumps, Optimism Plunges
    Thu, Feb. 5 SPY, DIA, QQQ 4 Comments

    Summary

    • Bearish sentiment leapt as bullish sentiment declined, in a reversal of last week's survey results.
    • Bull-bear spread is the narrowest seen since July 2014.
    • The stronger dollar leaves some investors concerned about international companies.
  • January AAII Asset Allocation Survey: Fixed-Income Allocations Near A 2-Year High
    Tue, Feb. 3 AGG, SPY, DIA Comment!

    Summary

    • Investor allocations to fixed income saw the largest increase last month since May 2013.
    • The increase in fixed-income exposure was due to a larger allocation to bond funds.
    • A down month for stocks may have played a role in shifting investment dollars out of equities.
  • AAII Sentiment Survey: Optimism Among Individual Investors Rebounds
    Thu, Jan. 29 Comment!

    Summary

    • Investors are more optimistic about the short-term direction of the market.
    • Bearish sentiment among investors plunged from last week to this week.
    • A larger number of investors have a neutral outlook on the direction of stocks.
  • AAII Sentiment Survey: Pessimism Jumps Above 30%
    Thu, Jan. 22 SPY, IVV, VOO 4 Comments

    Summary

    • Investor optimism dropped while pessimism spiked, by nearly the same amount.
    • Survey results reflect a reversion to the mean.
    • Opinions are mixed on what the impending rate hike will do to stock prices.
  • AAII Sentiment Survey: Individual Investors Remain Optimistic
    Thu, Jan. 15 SPY, IVV, VOO 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Investors remain optimistic, with bullish sentiment above average for the 21st time in 23 weeks.
    • Bearish sentiment drops and remains below-average for the 13th consecutive week.
    • Investors are either keeping their strategies stable or turning to large-cap or dividend-paying stocks.
  • AAII Sentiment Survey: Pessimism Rises To A 3-Month High
    Thu, Jan. 8 QQQ, SPY, DIA 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Bullish sentiment plunged but still remains above the historical average.
    • Bearish sentiment jumped, but still remains below its historical average.
    • Pessimism is at its highest level since October 16, 2014, possibly due to stocks' weak start in the new year.
  • Neutral Sentiment Rises To Highest Level Since September
    Dec. 18, 2014 SPY, DIA, QQQ 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Neutral sentiment rose as bullish sentiment dropped sharply.
    • Bearish sentiment remains below its historical average for the 42nd week this year.
    • Investors are largely comfortable with current stock valuations, except for oil stocks.
  • AAII Sentiment Survey: Bullish Sentiment Continues To Stay Above 40%
    Dec. 11, 2014 SPY, IVV, VOO 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Bullish sentiment is above average for the 10th consecutive week.
    • Bearish sentiment is below average for the 41st week this year.
    • Opinions are mixed about oil stocks, but many investors see a good opportunity to buy.
  • AAII Sentiment Survey: Despite Big Drop, Optimism Stays Above Average
    Dec. 4, 2014 SPY, DIA, QQQ Comment!

    Summary

    • Optimism plunged, but still remains above its historical average.
    • Pessimism rose, but still remains below its historical average.
    • Third-quarter earnings made little impact on investor attitudes.
  • AAII Sentiment Survey: Optimism Keeps Rising, Hits 4-Year High
    Nov. 13, 2014 DIA, SPY, QQQ Comment!

    Summary

    • Investor optimism leapt to a four-year high.
    • Neutral sentiment plunged to the lowest level since March of 2013.
    • Unusually high optimism with unusually low pessimism tends to precede below-average S&P 500 gains.
  • Are Simpler Stock Strategies Better?
    Nov. 9, 2014 QVAL 4 Comments

    Summary

    • A strategy solely focused on low valuations will have good returns if it identifies enough stocks, but it may not be investable.
    • By adding additional criteria to a screen, the list of passing stocks can be narrowed down to a manageable level and undesirable traits can be weeded out.
    • Consider the key traits you want in a stock and then overlay additional criteria to omit stocks you want to absolutely avoid.
  • October AAII Asset Allocation Survey: Equity Allocations Decline To 14-Month Low
    Nov. 4, 2014 SPY, IVV, VOO 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Equity allocations among individual investors declined to a 14-month low.
    • Bond allocations edged slightly higher.
    • Almost half of AAII members did not change their small-cap stock allocations.
  • AAII Sentiment Survey: Bullish Sentiment Surges To 49.7%
    Oct. 24, 2014 SPY, IVV, VOO 3 Comments

    Summary

    • Bullish investor sentiment shot up last week as pessimism plunged.
    • Market volatility is leading individual investors to buy more stocks.
    • Pullbacks and corrections create a more favorable buying environment.
  • AAII Sentiment Survey: Optimism Rises As Sentiment Becomes More Polarized
    Oct. 16, 2014 SPY, QQQ, DIA 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Individual investor optimism rose to a six-week high, despite downward volatility.
    • Neutral sentiment fell to its lowest point since March of 2013.
    • One-third of survey respondents are favoring health care stocks.
  • AAII Sentiment Survey: Optimism Rebounds, Pessimism Stays Above Average
    Oct. 10, 2014 SPY, IVV, VOO 4 Comments

    Summary

    • Investor optimism rebounded to land above its historical average.
    • Bearish sentiment only edged up by 0.1 percentage points.
    • Even in the face of volatility, overall sentiment is sticking close to historical averages.
  • Patience With Small-Cap Stocks Is Often Rewarded
    Oct. 10, 2014 IWM, TZA, TNA 1 Comment

    Summary

    • The size premium realized by small-cap stocks comes from their higher volatility.
    • Small-company stocks have been the highest-returning asset 44 times out of all five-year rolling periods between 1926 and 2013.
    • Over 20-year rolling periods, small-company stocks outperform 59 times versus nine times for large-company stocks.
  • AAII Sentiment Survey: Pessimism Rises To A 3-Month High
    Oct. 2, 2014 SPY, IVV, VOO Comment!

    Summary

    • Pessimism is at a three-month high, but is only above average for the 8th time in 12 months.
    • Bullish sentiment is at its lowest level since early August.
    • Small-cap stock performance is having a mixed effect on investor attitudes.
  • September AAII Asset Allocation Survey: Fixed Income Rises To An 8-Month High
    Oct. 1, 2014 SPY, IVV, VOO Comment!

    Summary

    • Asset allocation shifts are very subtle overall.
    • Fixed-income allocations rose to an eight-month high.
    • Stock and stock fund allocations declined to a four-month low.
  • AAII Sentiment Survey: Steady Optimism Remains Above Average
    Sep. 25, 2014 SPY, DIA, QQQ 5 Comments

    Summary

    • Steady bullish sentiment remains above long-term average.
    • Bearish sentiment rose but stays below long-term average.
    • Neutral sentiment falls below its long-term average for the first time in 3 weeks.
  • AAII Sentiment Survey: Bullish Sentiment Above Average For 6th Week
    Sep. 18, 2014 SPY, DIA, QQQ 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Bullish sentiment among AAII members is above average for the 6th week in a row.
    • Neutral sentiment continues to bob above its historical average for the 35th time in 37 weeks.
    • Bearish sentiment continues to remain below average, for the 43rd time in 49 weeks.
  • AAII Sentiment Survey: Optimism Declines, But Stays Above Average
    Sep. 11, 2014 DIA, SPY, QQQ 3 Comments

    Summary

    • Investor sentiment shows a reversion to the mean.
    • Optimism declined but still remains above average.
    • Pessimism, however, remains below average.
  • AAII Sentiment Survey: Optimism Pulls Back From Recent High
    Sep. 4, 2014 SPY, DIA, QQQ Comment!

    Summary

    • Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, fell 7.2 percentage points to 44.7%.
    • Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, rose by 4.7 points to 24.0%.
    • Optimism is still nearly six percentage points above its historical average and pessimism is more than six percentage points below its historical average.
  • August AAII Asset Allocation Survey: Rising Optimism Not Altering Portfolios
    Sep. 2, 2014 DIA, SPY, QQQ Comment!

    Summary

    • Equity allocations among AAII members did not change much last month despite the 21-percentage-point rise in optimism towards stocks registered by our Sentiment Survey last month.
    • Equity allocations were at their highest levels of the year in July, and August's allocations were very close to that level.
    • Many survey respondents said the said this year's drop interest rates has not had any impact on their portfolios.
  • AAII Sentiment Survey: More Than 50% Of Individual Investors Are Bullish
    Aug. 28, 2014 SPY, DIA, QQQ 4 Comments

    Summary

    • Bullish sentiment is above 50% for the first time since December 26, 2013.
    • Bearish sentiment fell below 20% for the first time this year.
    • AAII members have varied opinions about the impact the length of the bull market is having on their attitudes towards stocks.