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  • AAII Sentiment Survey: Big Changes In Optimism And Pessimism
    Thu, Aug. 14 SPY, QQQ, DIA 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Bullish sentiment experienced its largest one week jump since February 13, 2014.
    • Bearish sentiment incurred its largest two-week fluctuation in nearly a year.
    • The big change in sentiment this week occurred as both large-cap and small-cap stocks rebounded from their recent lows.
  • The Characteristics Of High-Return Stocks
    Fri, Aug. 8 AEL, CJES, CRUS 13 Comments

    Summary

    • Stocks with six-fold gains shared some common traits, according to a T. Rowe Price Study.
    • High-return stocks tend to have strong sales growth, strong earnings growth and realize high returns on invested capital.
    • We found 11 stocks with the traits identified by the study.
  • Pessimism Among Individual Investors Surges
    Thu, Aug. 7 SPY, DIA, QQQ 6 Comments

    Summary

    • Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, spiked to levels not seen in nearly a year.
    • Neutral sentiment fell to its lowest level since last January.
    • AAII members describe U.S. economic growth as being slow.
  • July AAII Asset Allocation Survey: Equity Allocations Hit A 2014 High
    Mon, Aug. 4 SPY, IVV, VOO 4 Comments

    Summary

    • Allocations to stocks and stock funds reached their highest level of the year in July.
    • Bond and bond fund allocations rose to their largest level since January 2014.
    • Cash allocations are at their lowest level since March 2000.
  • Pessimism Now Above Average, But Bulls Match Bears
    Thu, Jul. 31 QQQ, DIA, SPY 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Pessimism among individual investors is above 30% for the first time since mid-April.
    • This is the first time there has been an equal percentage of bulls and bears since September 6, 2012.
    • Individual investors are mixed on the importance of buybacks, but think other uses of cash should be given priority.
  • AAII Sentiment Survey: Optimism Falls To An 8-Week Low
    Thu, Jul. 24 SPY, DIA, QQQ 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Bullish sentiment is at an 11-week low, and below its historical average for the 17th time in the past 19 weeks.
    • Neutral sentiment is back up to unusually high levels, and is above its historical average for the 29th consecutive week.
    • Bearish sentiment is at its highest level since April 17, 2014, but still below average.
  • AAII Sentiment Survey: Individual Investor Optimism Falls To An 8-Week Low
    Thu, Jul. 17 DIA, SPY, QQQ 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, fell to its lowest level since May.
    • Neutral sentiment rebounded by 5.5 percentage points to 39.2%.
    • Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, stayed below its historical average for the 13th week.
  • AAII Sentiment Survey: Pessimism Jumps To A 2-Month High
    Thu, Jul. 10 SPY, IVV, VOO 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Pessimism about the short-term direction of stock prices is at its highest level since May 8, 2014.
    • Neutral sentiment is at its lowest level since March 13, 2014.
    • The majority of survey respondents say market complexity is having no effect on their sentiment towards stocks.
  • Individual Investor Optimism Rises To 3-Week High
    Thu, Jul. 3 DIA, SPY, QQQ 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Optimism among individual investors about the short-term direction of stock prices is at a three-week high.
    • Neutral sentiment is above its historical average for the 26th consecutive week; bearish sentiment remains below average.
    • AAII members say what they would change about the market.
  • AAII Sentiment Survey: Pessimism Falls To A 6-Month Low
    Thu, Jun. 26 SPY, DIA, QQQ 4 Comments

    Summary

    • Bullish sentiment is below its historical average of 39.0% for the 13th time in the past 15 weeks.
    • Neutral sentiment is above its historical average of 30.5% for the 25th consecutive week.
    • Bearish sentiment is at its lowest level since December 26, 2013.
  • AAII Sentiment Survey: Bullish Sentiment Hits A 6-Month High
    Thu, Jun. 12 SPY, DIA, QQQ 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Bullish sentiment is at its highest level since December 26, 2013.
    • Neutral sentiment remains above its historical average of 30.5% for the 23rd consecutive week.
    • Bearish sentiment is below its historical average of 30.5% for the eighth straight week.
  • AAII Sentiment Survey: Optimism Hits A 12-Week High, Exceeds Neutral Sentiment
    Thu, Jun. 5 DIA, SPY, QQQ Comment!

    Summary

    • Bullish sentiment s above its historical average of 39.0% for the first time since March 13, 2014.
    • Neutral sentiment has declined by a cumulative 4.9 percentage points over the past three weeks.
    • Bearish sentiment is below its historical average of 30.5% for the seventh straight week.
  • May AAII Asset Allocation Survey: Cash Allocations Hit An 8-Month High
    Mon, Jun. 2 SPY, IVV, VOO Comment!

    Summary

    • Stock and stock fund allocations fell, but remain above their historical average.
    • Fixed-income allocations stayed below their historical average of 16% for the third consecutive month.
    • Cash allocations rose to their largest allocation to cash since September 2013.
  • AAII Sentiment Survey: Optimism Rebounds To 2-Month High
    Thu, May. 29 SPY, IVV, VOO 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Bullish sentiment rebounded to its highest level since March 20, 2014.
    • Neutral sentiment stayed above 40% for a fifth consecutive week.
    • Bearish sentiment remained below its historical average of 30.5% for the sixth straight week.
  • AAII Sentiment Survey: Neutral Sentiment Above 40% For Fourth Week
    Thu, May. 22 SPY, DIA, QQQ Comment!

    Summary

    • Neutral sentiment is above 40% for the fourth consecutive week, the longest such streak since 1998.
    • Bullish sentiment is below its historical average of 39.0% for the 10th consecutive week.
    • Bearish sentiment is below its historical average of 30.5% for the fifth straight week.
  • April AAII Asset Allocation Survey: Allocations Stay Unchanged Amid High Levels Of Neutral Sentiment
    Thu, May. 1 DIA, SPY, QQQ Comment!

    Summary

    • April was just the third month since September 2007 when equity allocations were at or above 67.0%.
    • This is just the third time since 2009 that fixed-income allocations are below their historical average of 16%.
    • April was the 29th consecutive month with cash allocations below their historical average of 24%.
  • AAII Sentiment Survey: Neutral Sentiment Hits A 9-Year High
    Thu, May. 1 DIA, SPY, QQQ 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, declined 4.7 percentage points to 29.8%.
    • Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged over the next six months, rose 1.3 percentage points to 40.8%.
    • Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, rebounded by 3.4 percentage points to 29.4%.
  • How I Analyze Earnings Reports
    Fri, Apr. 25 SWKS, T, TRV 3 Comments

    Summary

    • There are generalities of what to look for in earnings reports that apply to most companies.
    • A company’s executive team will do their best to put a positive spin on earnings, but profit margins may tell you a different story.
    • Don’t look at the EBITDA figure, which some executives prefer you look at, but rather look at free cash flow.
  • AAII Sentiment Survey: Optimism Rebounds, But Remains Below Average
    Thu, Apr. 24 SPY, IVV, VOO Comment!

    Summary

    • Optimism among individual investors rebounded strongly, but still remains below average.
    • Neutral sentiment is above its historical average for the the 16th consecutive week.
    • Pessimism is below its historical average for the first time in three weeks.
  • AAII Sentiment Survey: Optimism Falls To Lowest Level In A Year
    Thu, Apr. 17 SPY, IVV, VOO 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Bullish sentiment is at its lowest level since April 18, 2013, and is now at an unusually low level.
    • Neutral sentiment is above its historical average of 30.5% for the 15th consecutive week.
    • Bearish sentiment is at a 10-week high.
  • AAII Sentiment Survey: Pessimism Jumps To A 9-Week High
    Thu, Apr. 10 SPY, IVV, VOO 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Bearish sentiment spiked 7.3 percentage points to 34.1%, the largest amount of pessimism since February 6, 2014 (36.4%).
    • Bullish sentiment plunged 6.9 percentage points to 28.5%, a nine-week low.
    • Neutral sentiment remained above its historical average of 30.5% for the 14th consecutive week.
  • How To Beat High-Frequency Traders
    Fri, Apr. 4 IWV, VOO 14 Comments

    Summary

    • Given the technological arms race, the only way you can beat high-frequency traders is to circumvent them.
    • The less you trade, the less chance high-frequency traders have to jump in front of your orders.
    • High-frequency traders focus on the stocks most favored by institutional investors, so invest where institutional investors can't.
  • AAII Sentiment Survey: Neutral Sentiment Above Average For 13th Week
    Thu, Apr. 3 SPY, DIA, QQQ Comment!

    Summary

    • Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, rebounded by 4.2 percentage points to 35.4%.
    • Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged over the next six months, declined 2.4 percentage points to 37.9%.
    • Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, declined 1.8 percentage points to 26.8%.
  • March AAII Asset Allocation Survey: Bond Allocations Fall Below 16%
    Wed, Apr. 2 DIA, SPY, QQQ 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Bond and bond fund allocations declined to 15.7%; just second time since 2009 they are below 16%.
    • Stock and stock fund allocations are third largest allocation since June 2007.
    • March data signals a continuation of a longer-term trend.
  • AAII Sentiment Survey: 9-Year High For Neutral Sentiment
    Thu, Mar. 27 SPY, IVV, VOO Comment!

    Summary

    • Neutral sentiment is at its highest level since 2005.
    • Bullish sentiment has fallen by a cumulative 10.1 percentage points during the past two weeks.
    • Bearish sentiment remains below its historical average for the seventh consecutive week.
  • AAII Sentiment Survey: Optimism Declines To A 6-Week Low
    Thu, Mar. 20 SPY, IVV, VOO Comment!

    Summary

    • Bullish sentiment fell 4.6 percentage points to 36.8%.
    • Bearish sentiment declined by 0.7 percentage points to 26.1%.
    • Weakness in the stock market over the survey period may have moved some investors from the bullish camp and into the neutral camp.
  • AAII Sentiment Survey: Bullish And Neutral Sentiment Stay Above Average
    Thu, Mar. 13 SPY, IVV, VOO Comment!

    Summary

    • Bullish sentiment has now been above its historical average of 39.0% for five consecutive weeks.
    • Neutral sentiment remains above its historical average of 30.5% for the 10th consecutive week.
    • Bearish sentiment remains below its historical average of 30.5% for the 23rd time in 27 weeks.
  • The Bull Market's 5th Anniversary
    Thu, Mar. 6 SPY, IVV, VOO 6 Comments

    Summary

    • Since bottoming on March 9, 2009, the S&P 500 has gained nearly 200% on a total return basis.
    • Part of what makes it so difficult to forecast what is going to happen next right now is history's lack of clear insight.
    • Consider that even if your short-term timing is terrible, you will likely still do better by staying invested.
  • AAII Sentiment Survey: Optimism Continues To Hover Above Its Historical Average
    Thu, Mar. 6 SPY, IVV, VOO Comment!

    Summary

    • Bullish sentiment stayed slightly above its historical average for the fourth consecutive week.
    • Bearish sentiment is below its historical average of 30.5% for the 22nd time in 26 weeks.
    • Only two other periods with pessimism staying below its historical average for similar periods of time have existed over the past 10 years.
  • February AAII Asset Allocation Survey: Equity Allocations Above 60% For 11th Month
    Tue, Mar. 4 SPY, IVV, VOO Comment!
  • AAII Sentiment Survey: Neutral Sentiment Hits A Six-Week High
    Thu, Feb. 27 DIA, SPY, QQQ Comment!
  • AAII Sentiment Survey: Optimism Rebounds For Second Week
    Thu, Feb. 20 SPY, IVV, VOO Comment!