AAII Investor Update: Dividends and Buybacks- A Good Use of Corporate Cash? [View article]
tweedn - Thanks for the kind words. I personally prefer dividends over buybacks as well, though buybacks are preferable to bad business ventures and they do provide greater flexibility for a company undergoing strong growth.
AAII members can download a spreadsheet with the all of the survey's historical data and a chart plotting the data against the S&P 500. (Membership is just $29 per year.)
Since the survey is conducted weekly, there are a lot of data points and therefore the Excel chart gets messy. What we have found is that over time, extremes in the sentiment readings are correlated with market reversals. There is no single magic indicator, however, and the sentiment numbers should be considered within the broad context of other factors.
Steve - just call or email me anytime you need investment data, quality fantasy football advice or someone to boost viewership of the Zacks’ videos and TV show. :)
Stone Fox Capital - Our sentiment survey is conducted weekly and I believe the mutual fund data is tabulated monthly, so it would not be an exact overlay of data. I've never seen a study trying to combine the two, but I know some researchers have done long-term studies using our survey data.
Preparing for the Likely Scenario of Deflation [View article]
Larry,
The scenario of low inflation and slow growth, but not deflation is based on what many economists are currently projecting. As to whether they are being too optimistic or too pessimistic is for each investor to determine.
I'm not making a forecast, just presenting the data and giving investors factors to consider should the U.S. continue experiencing such an environment.
Preparing for the Likely Scenario of Deflation [View article]
Thanks for the feedback.
As I said in the article, this is not a call for history to repeat itself - I acknowledged that the conditions are different now, but rather simply evidence that Japan is not the only scenario we could be looking at in terms of slow growth and low inflation.
The survey is conducted online at AAII.com. Without checking IP addresses, we have no way of knowing if it is the same members taking the survey week and week out. What we have found over time, however, is that the responses provide a pretty good overview of how our members feel about the market.
I would caution against using any indicator as the sole reason to be bullish or bearish. Rather, you want to look at a variety of indicators before forming your opinion.
I would caution against using any single indicator, whether its our sentiment survey numbers or something else, as your basis for trading. Always make sure you are getting similar signals from a variety of indicators.
You may well be doing this already and if so, just consider this a friendly reminder.
AAII Sentiment Survey: Bearish Sentiment Falls, But Still High [View article]
Bearish readings above 50%, which roughly equate to two standard deviations from the mean, do not occur very often and thus draw attention. Like any indicator, however, it needs to be placed in the broader context. Specifically, do many indicators suggest that the potential rewards outweigh the potential risks?
Obviously, the great debate comes in determining which indicators. I lean heavily on fundamental indicators, though I do look at the chart before making a final decision. Others flip this priority. The key is to know what you are buying and what could cause your analysis to be wrong before you place the actual order.
AAII Investor Update: Dividends and Buybacks- A Good Use of Corporate Cash? [View article]
AAII Weekly Sentiment Survey: Bullish Sentiment Crosses 50% Threshold [View article]
Since the survey is conducted weekly, there are a lot of data points and therefore the Excel chart gets messy. What we have found is that over time, extremes in the sentiment readings are correlated with market reversals. There is no single magic indicator, however, and the sentiment numbers should be considered within the broad context of other factors.
Steve - just call or email me anytime you need investment data, quality fantasy football advice or someone to boost viewership of the Zacks’ videos and TV show. :)
Stone Fox Capital - Our sentiment survey is conducted weekly and I believe the mutual fund data is tabulated monthly, so it would not be an exact overlay of data. I've never seen a study trying to combine the two, but I know some researchers have done long-term studies using our survey data.
-Charles Rotblut, AAII
Preparing for the Likely Scenario of Deflation [View article]
The scenario of low inflation and slow growth, but not deflation is based on what many economists are currently projecting. As to whether they are being too optimistic or too pessimistic is for each investor to determine.
I'm not making a forecast, just presenting the data and giving investors factors to consider should the U.S. continue experiencing such an environment.
-Charles
Preparing for the Likely Scenario of Deflation [View article]
As I said in the article, this is not a call for history to repeat itself - I acknowledged that the conditions are different now, but rather simply evidence that Japan is not the only scenario we could be looking at in terms of slow growth and low inflation.
AAII Sentiment Survey: Bearish Sentiment Jumps [View article]
I would caution against using any indicator as the sole reason to be bullish or bearish. Rather, you want to look at a variety of indicators before forming your opinion.
AAII Sentiment Survey: Bearish Sentiment Stays Above 40% [View article]
I would caution against using any single indicator, whether its our sentiment survey numbers or something else, as your basis for trading. Always make sure you are getting similar signals from a variety of indicators.
You may well be doing this already and if so, just consider this a friendly reminder.
-Charles
AAII Sentiment Survey: Bearish Sentiment Falls, But Still High [View article]
Obviously, the great debate comes in determining which indicators. I lean heavily on fundamental indicators, though I do look at the chart before making a final decision. Others flip this priority. The key is to know what you are buying and what could cause your analysis to be wrong before you place the actual order.
AAII Sentiment Survey: Neutral Sentiment at 7-Week High [View article]
Only AAII Members are allowed to participate in the survey. We have approximately 125,000 members.
-Charles