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  • AAII Sentiment Survey: Steady Optimism Remains Above Average [View article]
    Here is an analysis of the survey results we did a few months ago:

    It will take several years of future data to determine if the correlation between high and low readings and market direction holds up or is severed.
    Sep 28, 2014. 12:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AAII Sentiment Survey: Pessimism Falls To A 6-Month Low [View article]

    I referenced an article with an analysis of how the market has performed following high and low sentiment readings. You can see it at

    Jun 30, 2014. 08:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Changes I Made To My Portfolio [View article]
    Miguel/Slowly Learning - Will health care be the best performing sector over the next 10-20 years? Nobody knows, and those who say they do know, don't. As I said in the article, I avoid making big bets on uncertain outcomes.

    Teach English-The rules may differ depending on the 403(b) plan. Vanguard has told me several times that admiral funds are off limits.

    Jrez-The per fund exists even if we get electronic delivery of our statements.

    Nov 4, 2013. 09:41 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • AAII Sentiment Survey: Bullish Sentiment Rebounds [View article]
    We average about 300 respondents to the Sentiment Survey.
    Aug 9, 2013. 01:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Streaks, Observations And Notes [View article]
    Dancing Diva,

    It is important to consider the prevailing yields at the time you are investing. If a stock's yield is considerably higher than the prevailing range for most quality stocks, then questions should be asked. Specifically, why is X stock yielding so much? What risks are other investors demanding compensation for.

    In the current environment, yields above 3.5% on quality stocks are hard to fine.

    Jun 10, 2013. 10:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Focus On The Fundamentals, Not The Story [View article]

    Model S priced at $62k after federal tax rebate - Telsa website:

    Consensus earnings estimates don't show a profit being made until 2014 - Yahoo! Finance -
    May 31, 2013. 10:59 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • AAII Sentiment Survey: Optimism At Second-Highest Level Of The Year [View article]
    The Recusant,

    The June AAII Journal will discuss the survey's response rates and how it has performed historically as a contrarian indicator.

    May 23, 2013. 01:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Shrinking Dividend Yield [View article]
    Dollars withdrawn from dividends are shares that could have been purchased, which would have paid additional dividends. Either way, money is coming out of the portfolio.
    Apr 12, 2013. 09:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividends' Unintended Consequences [View article]

    Howard did not publish a list of the companies. Rather, he just sent me the numbers on how many companies have declared dividends, both regular and special.

    Dec 7, 2012. 11:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lessons From Black Monday [View article]
    The two are not contradictory statements. Weak technicals are a sign something is wrong, but when everybody is fearful that the market is a in a freefall, buying opportunities often exist.
    Oct 22, 2012. 10:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AAII Investor Update: Stocks Are Pricey, But Inexpensive [View article]
    Table 2 has been updated. I incorrectly sorted the stocks when the article was first published, from high to low P/Es, when it should have been from low to high P/Es. Sorry for the confusion.

    As far as the comments, anchoring is a very common error among investors of all skill levels--and it is very important to be aware of it.

    Just look at all of the current chatter about Facebook. Yes, the stock is now $6 below its offering price, but it is still very expensive on a valuation basis. But, how much do you hear about the stock's P/E ratio?

    So is the article simple, yes? But, it's underlying point is very important.

    -Charles Rotblut
    May 25, 2012. 05:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AAII Sentiment Survey: Bullish Sentiment Near A 2-Year Low [View article]

    It should have read, "This is also the seventh consecutive week that bullish sentiment has been below its historical average of 39%."

    Unfortunately, the typo slipped by both me and my editors. I've asked Seeking Alpha to correct.

    Sorry for the confusion,
    May 17, 2012. 03:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AAII Investor Update: How I Monitor My Stocks [View article]

    We have not announced the location yet. We'll probably make an announcement near the end of this year or early next year.

    Apr 20, 2012. 09:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rewards May Exist in Muni Bonds [View article]
    Thanks Shanky.
    Jan 22, 2011. 09:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AAII Asset Allocation Survey: 11-Month High for Stock Allocations [View article]

    Thanks for being a member.

    It is a small percentage of total membership and we do not use random sampling for the surveys, so there are those caveats that must be considered when looking at the survey results. Nonetheless, there is a long history (which can be downloaded at to compare the current results against.

    As far as the ICI mutual fund flow data, they measure the fund flows for 95% of all mutual funds. Thus, the data includes both individual and institutional inflows and outflows.

    Our surveys provide insight, but I do not recommend using them as the sole indicator for judging market direction. Rather, I would look at several indicators before making a judgment as to whether stocks are looking more or less attractive.

    Hope this helps,
    Dec 19, 2010. 11:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment