Aaron Murdock

Long/short equity, bonds, special situations, growth
Aaron Murdock
Long/short equity, bonds, special situations, growth
Contributor since: 2012
There is reason to believe the company could be turned around. However the only reason I see to buy it now is for a short squeeze based on some unpredictable good news. This is the only reason I have options on the stock. I think the company is moving much to slow to turn the business around right now and the value of the equity in JCP will likely go to zero or very close too that level before the turnaround happens.
Thanks for you comments, glad you liked it.
Thank your for your comments.
Some businesses might want one, but do you really thing 3D printing will ever displace injection molding for manufacturing.
Thank you so much for your comments.
Comparing 3D to 2D printing is like apples to oranges. You might want a cheap 3D printer to make repair parts around your house, or just to make toys for whatever reason. It is nothing like printing a document.
That is part of my problem with 3D systems is that they are putting so much into this low end market. I don't think average people like you and me want to buy one of these things for hundreds or thousands of dollars.
Thanks for you comments.
I defiantly understand how painful getting hit like that is, but I am glad you got out quick.
Well my guess of future earnings growth doesn't impact the consensus PEG ratio.
How the technology really revolutionary? It does great things and has many uses. But improved prototyping isn't changing the world. And 3D printing in prototyping has been around for years. Any sizable manufacturing operation isn't going to move from injection modeling to 3D printing. I believe the market for 3D printing is prototyping, making repair parts, and custom creation of tools or medical devices.
Thanks for the information.
I will look into it for sure.
Thanks for your comments.
I would say it is the forward growth rate that matters. Do are you think the CAGR of net income will be 45% over the next five years. Then 32 is not a bad forward P/E. But I would say earnings growth might be more like 20 or 25%, and then 32 is maybe on the high side of average.
Thanks for your kind comments.
Thanks for your comments.
I will have to read their report, Credit Suisse normally puts out fairly high quality research.
Thanks for your comments.
I think the reason LNG has doubled and CQP has done nothing is two part, some of the positive developments only effect LNG and CQP pays a divided, LNG doesn't.
Why you have preferred CQP? And why haven't you stuck with it?
When at Sabine Pass they have purchases agreements for almost 100%. The guaranteed amount on those agreements is at a discount to current prices, but still should be profitable. The risk in large part of those agreements is low.
Prices fall, run of the exits. No there is still a good business the contracts in place help, and there would still be profit even with some downside in prices. Plus as the run hopefully efficiency would drive costs down. Right now they are planning on $3 per mmbtu for the liquefaction process.
Thanks for your comments.
Likely would have had more people on board two weeks ago when everything only went up.
Thank you for your comments.
I would say a dividend would be up to the board, but I wouldn't hold your breath on LNG paying a dividend even after the exports start. They will have significant demands for the cash for sometime into the future and if exporting LNG really ends up being the license to print money they say it is why not invest into expanding operations.
I believe LNG could be the better long term play, in part because 100% of the Corpus Christi is owned by LNG. However the more efficient tax structure of the LP also makes sense. However your own tax situation also effects this.
So I guess in summary if I only bought one and had a long term time horizon it would be LNG.
Yes, I would agree with you that if you held Dell shares before the buyout offer and you think it is a fair price why not sell now. There is a fair bit of risk in holding the shares unless you believe the buyout gets done at a higher level. And even if the offer gets raised a $1 I don't think it is worth the risk if you own a hundred shares.
The biggest thing that effects the vote is what the large shareholders decide. If any large fund buys shares now they would vote against and hold out for more money.
Interesting, thank you for your perspective.
I am interested to see if the bid gets increased to $15 per share if that is enough to get large shareholders on board. You might be right about that being enough. I just have a feeling that some of the larger shareholders might not be willing to sell for that price. Southeastern will play an important role, I think Dell is their 3rd biggest holding.
I think NJ is largely about online gaming. The other thing is MGM has a lot of money from the Borgata held in trust. The Borgata is the top grossing casino there and MGM would like access to that cash. They haven't been able to sell the Borgata because the reasons you stated about the market there, but they might as well get access to their share of the profits.
I agree NYC will be great for whoever gets in there.
Interesting article, I like it, but I also find in challenging. You are recommending Google after it has already add a big run as that is hard, not sure now is the time to jump on that bandwagon. Furthermore you are looking at where these companies overlap but long term I believe there will be three strong companies here doing three different things. And if I were Google, Apple, or Microsoft my biggest worry would be what someone else not even on your radar is doing. Microsoft came out of no where on IBM, Google and Apple came out of no where on them. Look at Facebook, Google could have done that.
Thanks for reading and for your comments.
I agree with your sentiment about the company.
I believe you can make money buying in at anytime but a more active price could be available if you wait for it. WM was down over 1% on Friday. Research points to market timing making only a very small difference in long term returns, with that said I am working hard for every point I can get.
Well the industry has been able to rebound quickly from disasters before. Carnival had this same problem with the cruise off the coast of Mexico in 2010. And there was the Costa ship that sunk, and still a record number of people are lining up to get on these ships. Part of it is the value cruising presents; you just can’t travel that easily and cheaply. Also one advantage Carnival has is they own multiple brands, so even though the Carnival brand has been damaged some, there other brands are largely unaffected.
Well Norwegian has more risk in it because they only have one brand and are trading at such a premium. But there is more reward, these new ships going generate a lot of growth for this company.
With respect to costs so far these new very large ships have been very successful and well worth the investment. The access to cheap money makes them even more successful. However I think the growth of the size of the ships will start to slow. It has been doubling every ten years for awhile now, but I am not sure you will see a 400,000 gross ton ship built by the end of decade.
Thanks for reading and for your comments.
Yes the uptrend can continue but I would hold off on jumping in right now. This move higher is overextended and I don't see the short term catalysts that will allow the run to continue uninterrupted. I think you will get your chance but it might take weeks or a months, not days.
Thanks for your comments.
I think we are a long ways from anything like that. Zillow is still developing the platform in the US. I think international expansion would be years down the road and likely come from acquisition.
It has defiantly been driven up lately and I would wait to buy on weakness. Lets hope there isn't a downturn in housing later this year.
Interesting article, I really enjoyed it. I think the Feds historic action is affecting the incentives people have to invest in different asset classes and impacting people’s ability to make the most rational choices. Furthermore those changes while they may inflict some of the behaviors the Fed is hoping for they might have many unintended impacts consequences. I think there is reason why some many Fed decisions have been far from unanimous over the past few years.
What they said is that they are closer than they were a few years ago, but that they still have a ways to go. I believe these companies are well focused on creating shareholder value, and if this becomes a possibility and creates value I think it you could see it happen. If the expansion of the definition of a REIT turns out to be fore a fad and the advantages go away than REITs will not happen in this and other industries. I am just saying it hasn't happened one way or another yet.
Thanks for reading and for your comments.
Well $85/ton would mean trouble for the whole space, but I am sure worry about the stability of pricing is partly what prompted such a large cut to the dividend.
Thanks for your comments. We will see how low it can get, $24 could be a ways off but you never know.
Thanks for you comments.
People always want more. I think a lot of investors don't realize how tough the restaurant business is.
Thanks for you comments, and I agree with buying on a pullback and writing calls as the premium can be attractive.
Thanks for reading and for your comments.
Well with any high multiple that is the risk you are running, it is based on the growth rate, which so far has exceeded expectations.
Thank you for reading.
I agree with buying the dips.
Yes, I think it is important to look at what the items are that create the adjustments to EPS. Earnings would have been 37 had it not been for managements decision to pay down some debt.
It does seem like it could be a takeout target at some point.