Seeking Alpha

Abe Garver

 
View as an RSS Feed
View Abe Garver's Articles BY TICKER:
  • Will Alibaba Disrupt U.S. E-Commerce? The Man Who Should Know
    Sat, Sep. 13 BABA 44 Comments

    Summary

    • To provide more color, I asked Don Davis who is Editor-in-Chief at e-commerce news and research firm Internet Retailer, which publishes the Top 500 Rankings.
    • Will Alibaba try to take on Amazon and eBay? The short answer from Don is no because he believes there is tougher competition in the U.S. than China.
    • This entire article quotes Mr. Davis who I know personally having been a featured M&A speaker two times at Internet Retailer's annual (world's largest) e-commerce conference.
  • Why Alibaba Is A Big Deal (Largest IPO In History): Your Cheat Sheet
    Mon, Sep. 8 BABA 49 Comments

    Summary

    • Although few retailer investors have heard of the company, the U.S.'s dominance in the e-commerce sector is poised to fall with the air apparent to Amazon set to IPO.
    • Amazingly, Alibaba's business is more profitable than Amazon and eBay put together.
    • Jack Ma's letter to Alibaba investors may revolutionize the way companies think about their culture and regard shareholders (not first or second, but third priority).
    • There are more voices in the press than one can shake a stick at, and this article shows you where to focus.
  • SaaS Valuation: What Is The Bessemer Venture Partners Index Telling Us To Short?
    Tue, Sep. 2 DWRE, LNKD, NOW 1 Comment

    Summary

    • 38 publicly traded comparables in the BVP Cloud Computing Index at July 24, 2014.
    • EV/Revenue valuations range between 2.0x-28.9x.
    • Median of 6.8x (EV/Revenue) and $204.4 million of revenue.
    • Mean of 8.0x (EV/Revenue) and $463.1 million of revenue.
  • Moving The E-Markets: Today's Top Trading Ideas In E-Commerce
    Tue, Sep. 2 EBAY, FGNT, GRPN Comment!

    Summary

    • At the end of August, the median e-commerce stock in our Index trades for 16.6x TTM cash flow.
    • Standing 987%, 543% and 101% above that level are Zulily, FragranceNet and Groupon.
    • Based on my experience as an M&A advisor in the sector, I'm not convinced that these premiums to market are justified or sustainable.
    • At the other extreme, eBay, Vistaprint and PetMed Express appear to be undervalued based on the fundamentals.
  • SaaS M&A: How To Predict Stock Direction AFTER An Announcement
    Tue, Sep. 2 PCLN 3 Comments

    Summary

    • Average acquisition premium to undisturbed share price is 53.8%.
    • Three findings may help you predict stock direction of the acquirer over time.
    • The average EV/Revenue multiple for: (i) public targets is 8.0x, (ii) private targets is 5.2x and (iii) sub- $25 million revenue targets is 4.8x.
    • Public acquirers may have an opportunity to 'Print money' if they can buy a private at 5.2x and continue to trade at 8.0x.
  • eBay's 'Uber Of E-Commerce Business' May Be Worth $18 Billion Too
    Fri, Jun. 13 EBAY 5 Comments

    Summary

    • The recent news that eBay’s local delivery plans are unraveling is misleading.
    • In reality, eBay/Shutl is heir apparent to the crown 'Uber of E-Commerce'.
    • EBay's enterprise valuation stands at $59 billion (52-week low) and Uber at $18 billion (proposed).
    • Perhaps if the market understood Shutl better, eBay's stock would be worth 30% more (e.g. $59 billion plus $18 billion).
  • E-Commerce Valuation: Offering Guidance For Buyers And Sellers
    Thu, Mar. 13 AMZN, EBAY, FGNT 5 Comments

    Summary

    • Valuation is about judgment, and multiples from a new E-Commerce Valuation Index (contained in this article) provide a framework for making value judgments.
    • Multiples based on Enterprise Value (EV) are independent of capital structure, so are of particular interest in stock trading, M&A and transactions of private companies.
    • (EV/ EBITDA) is a proxy for free cash flows and to date is the most popular of the EV based multiples (e.g. Amazon's is currently 45.1xs, the median is 18.5xs).
    • Based on experience selling e-commerce companies to large Strategics and PE groups in M&A auctions, rates of gross margin expansion (or contraction) may capture future prospects, better than EBITDA.
    • I propose that (EV/ Growth-Adjusted Gross Profit) be adopted as the new standard of relative value for e-commerce companies, and have developed a proprietary formula.
  • Shareholders Are Disrobing Talbots
    May. 25, 2012 TLB 12 Comments
  • Facebook's Busted IPO: Double Back-Flip Not Face-Plant
    May. 22, 2012 FB 3 Comments
  • 3 Signals Amazon's Gross Margin May Keep Surprising On The Upside
    May. 15, 2012 AMZN 8 Comments
  • Watching The Tax And Debt Clocks: Long-term Capital Gains Rate Set To Skyrocket 66.7%
    Apr. 27, 2012 NFLX, WMT, AAPL 10 Comments
  • Amazon's Billion-Dollar Payday Nearing Thanks To Marketplace Fairness Act
    Apr. 26, 2012 AMZN 21 Comments
  • The 'Cyber Monday Bump' And The 20% Dump
    Nov. 29, 2011 AMZN, EBAY, OSTK 1 Comment
  • Capital Gains Tax Spike: A Quick Way To Lose 13% ... Wait Until The Ball Drops In 2012
    Nov. 15, 2011 WMT, AAPL, AMZN 9 Comments
  • 'Make Amazon Shareholders Money' Act: 10 Senators, Wal-Mart, Others Duped Into Support
    Nov. 15, 2011 AMZN 14 Comments
  • Abrupt End To Tax-Free Internet Shopping Predicted: Significant Impact On Valuations
    Nov. 9, 2011 WMT, BBY, HD 5 Comments
  • Cyber Monday Deals May Tank Valuations Of Web-Only Retailers
    Nov. 6, 2011 AMZN, EBAY, OSTK Comment!
  • Amazon.com For $33.50 A Share?
    Oct. 31, 2011 AMZN 31 Comments
  • Amazon's On Steroids, Only Worth $52 A Share
    Oct. 27, 2011 AMZN 30 Comments
  • PetMed Express Trading At 45% Discount To Peers Following Earnings
    Oct. 25, 2011 PETS 4 Comments
  • Valuations Of Web-Only Retailers Could Drop 25%
    Oct. 9, 2011 AMZN, EBAY, OSTK 1 Comment