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Abu Bakr Hussain  

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  • The Simple Math Behind Atlas Resource Partners [View article]
    Indeed, (I agree with you both) - I think people may have mis-read what I wrote. The company's secure with its astute hedging. I wouldn't even like it to be hedged into 2019 as hopefully in 3 years time, the market is going to start looking a lot healthier. What is fair to say however is that ARP's SP is falling along with the fall in oil prices. That's just a given. So when I wrote the comment, it was $3.15, it's now $2.78 post-market, it may even fall below $2.50 before too long (days? weeks?). Have its fundamentals truly changed? No, the company's a great buy, but if oil keeps falling, so will the price of ARP, justified or not.

    (edited for clarity)
    Aug 20, 2015. 06:47 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Simple Math Behind Atlas Resource Partners [View article]
    I do like the look of ARP - at the same time, looking at the wider market, I do feel the price of oil has further to fall, or at least scope to stagnate for a while.
    So therefore, while I think $3.15 is a screaming buy, I'd rather pick it up for less if I can. Trying to wait for the absolute bottom can only be done by two types of people.
    Ocean Man (successfully), and everyone else (unsuccessfully). As I'm not Ocean Man, all I can say is that the oil price isn't going up (probably) anytime soon in the next 3-4 months at least which gives some time to consider a purchase.
    Aug 20, 2015. 10:57 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Very Large Aircraft Market Analysis: Why Mini-Jumbos Are Closing In On Superjumbos (Part 4) [View article]
    Thanks for a series of interesting and insightful articles Dhierin.
    I think you started touching upon some important points at the end here where you stated that the rise of the 'mega-airport' has not occurred. However, by their nature, these airports would be necessarily rare. Where the A380 may have prospered would have been serving places like London Heathrow which has severe capacity constraints. What instead appears to be happening in the UK is that Emirates (for example), is servicing regional airports (e.g. Birmingham/Manchester/... with smaller aircraft which is negating the need for people to travel down to Heathrow to catch a VLA.
    Fuel burn etc. is vital for the viability of these aircraft for sure. But there are quite a few assumptions being made here.
    Assuming that an aircraft ticket costs the same as it does in BHX as LHR. Assuming that passengers do not mind the time of the day they fly (necessarily less flexible with VLAs)
    Assuming that they will travel further to get a VLA than a local flight.

    I completely appreciate and understand why assumptions like that have to be made. However, it does skew the results somewhat and makes it more of an engineer's puzzle than an assessment of passenger's changing tastes and mores. Perhaps this could account partially for why multi-billion dollar projects in the aerospace industry fail.
    Kind Regards - Abu Bakr
    Mar 27, 2015. 08:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Enanta Is The Big Winner In The Hepatitis C War Between AbbVie And Gilead [View article]
    I don't get this morality/ethics issue. Is it more ethical to prescribe a treatment with ~95% success to 5 people, or 6 people? Isn't that effectively what we're boiling it down to? In an ideal world, both drugs, at the same price, Gilead would be the superior product. However, we do not just judge drugs on how many times a day we have to take them, price matters.
    it will be very interesting to see what happens with the UK NHS. If Gilead overcharges, the NHS will have no issue with only allowing the ABBV treatment on the NHS. The way the UK state sees it, it's better treatment is given to more people, rather than less. I agree.
    Dec 28, 2014. 07:11 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Enanta Is The Big Winner In The Hepatitis C War Between AbbVie And Gilead [View article]
    Hi George - thanks for the article. I just don't understand why ENTA is valued so low. I presume milestone payments count as income. Furthermore, even if ENTA receives 'only' $50m per quarter in terms of royalties...its EPS per quarter will be easily exceeding $2-3. It's a decent well run company with some interesting further products in the pipeline. What am I missing? I can see why it might not be cost effective for ABBV to B/O ENTA, but I can't see why ENTA isn't already $100. We don't need to do complicated DCF for this. It's already raking in money and will continue to do so over the next 5+ quarters.
    Dec 23, 2014. 10:18 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil closing out week on the lows [View news story]
    Actually, if this price decline is entirely OPEC-driven (seems a bit simplistic but lets roll with it), then the Saudis are being exceedingly clever.
    KSA has the ability to withstand economic punches which small to mid size oil co's in the US simply do not. This is about destroying the competition. Yes some companies will go bankrupt, (that appears to be an aim), some companies won't invest (another aim), and investors will get scared (another aim).
    IF this price decline is OPEC driven, we should expect low prices to continue till we see real hurt and pain. 1 week, 2 weeks is nothing for OPEC. Let's see for 1-2 quarters minimum, and quite possibly a year or so.
    Dec 13, 2014. 05:39 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Neonode: Strong Sell On Shell Games, Fraud Litigation And Hyping Obsolete Technology [View article]
    Mike - only place I presume shorts are running to, is to the bank to bathe themselves in money.
    This article above deserves an award for being one of the best withering; critical; insightful; well-written articles Seeking Alpha has produced in the last year. Since it has been written, NEON stock has declined perhaps around 75%. NEON has as of yet, never generated the hard revenues to butress its story. PR is one thing. Actual revenue generation, well, that's the part they seem to struggle on.
    Nov 20, 2014. 06:21 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Neonode: Strong Sell On Shell Games, Fraud Litigation And Hyping Obsolete Technology [View article]
    Okay - so if its a cost issue, it will be placed in low-end devices correct? looking at that video from 2 years ago, it looks like to me an IR-touch phone requires a raised bezel to be able to be effective. There is no way that would fly in any smartphone which of course are are now available from about $60+. I doubt very much IR is going to be making any inroads into gaining marketshare.
    Jul 6, 2014. 05:20 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Neonode: Strong Sell On Shell Games, Fraud Litigation And Hyping Obsolete Technology [View article]
    You know there are already touchscreens out there in commercial use that can be used wearing gloves or indeed be used against any implement right? i.e. pens etc. e.g high end Lumia phones..
    so what makes this particularly special?
    Jun 28, 2014. 08:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Study: WhatsApp used by 41% of Indian Web users, 3% of U.S. users [View news story]
    Viper - because those are Apple/iOS only. Whatsapp is platform agnostic, that includes supporting Nokia Asha phones, Blackberry etc. Basically, if you have a phone that has an app store, chances are Whatsapp is in it...
    plus of course it's the best way out there to keep in touch with international friends and family
    May 27, 2014. 09:43 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Neonode Is A Strong Buy: Invest In Groundbreaking Patented Technology For Just $5 A Share [View article]
    Looking through NEON's financial returns, it is hard to see when this growth will magically appear. There's a steady drum beat of articles and press releases touting the impending arrival of a massive uptick. An uptick which is always just around the corner, but never seems to appear.
    The company has had $3.5 million in revenues in the last 4 quarters, it has a negative EPS.. and it's worth $200million.
    Something is off there. Perhaps it might be better to wait and see. If there's an opportunity here, great, let's see evidence, not conjecture. Evidence in the form of increased revenues. Better to wait till then.
    Apr 6, 2014. 07:04 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Valuable Points [View instapost]
    We are really drug developers and our focus is probably to take these to NDA approval and then seek marketing partners… or you know, a marketing deal. We think if you take it that far, you can often get very favourable economics, even 50/50 economics. We do, in order to get a good partnership, we have to do a lot of work, to show them a package, to show them we understand there is traction here. We’ve done a lot of work to reach out to Managed Care companies, and other companies, to survey the market and target product profiles and things like that. So we’re very comfortable, that particularly for fibromyalgia which we’ve done the most work on that this is something that Managed Care will be interested in reimbursing. I think in terms generally, these markets are basically primary care markets. I think they would start with specialists, in the case of fibromyalgia, it’s either a rheumatologist or a psychiatrist. In the case of PTSD it’s a psychiatrist. In the case of tension headache it may be a neurologist or a head ache expert. But then quickly after that, I think that they would be refilled for sure by primary care doctors. So that’s the kind of undertaking that we don’t intend to undertake as a company and I think there’s a lot of big Pharma companies by and large are not doing a lot of internal development of drugs for the Central Nervous System, so we feel that in terms of having these products with long patent lives that it’s a sellers’ market. They certainly have the infrastructure to take drugs out into primary care and into market and to CNS specialists. So we feel we’ll be in a good position to get favourable economics in a marketing deal.
    Apr 1, 2014. 11:21 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Valuable Points [View instapost]
    I'm on it, give me a few min
    Apr 1, 2014. 11:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Honda Has Value, But Investors Should Be Cautious [View article]
    I'm a big Honda fan here in the UK and am currently on my 4th Honda (new Honda Civic) so just to give a bit of insight into the UK market. Generally speaking, while Honda retains its cachet for reliability, there are currently other manufacturers making waves here, especially Kia and Hyundai. As a response, the Swindon, UK plant (primary manufacturer for Euro-spec Civics), has downgraded from 3 shifts to 2. While I love the car, I don't think it has caught on, or will catch on. The Jazz is doing okay and the Accord is doing reasonable. Basically the perception is in the UK that the Honda brand is currently just generating stable revenues.
    I don't see this changing anytime soon, perhaps the new Civic Type R in 2015 will help re-invigorate the brand. I don't know when the Accord refresh is due though.
    Mar 28, 2014. 07:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MannKind: The Gambler's Creed - Let It Ride [View article]
    Ad hominem attacks are unfortunately part and parcel for writing on Seeking Alpha. If someone writes a bullish piece, it's "amazing article", if someone writes something critical, it's personal attacks mainly. Very, very rarely do writers actually get constructive rebuttals... Actually wait, I take that back. There is probably an inverse relationship between the utility of a bearish article and the amount of constructive rebuttals.
    Scrying Biotech's articles are intensely useful. They may not agree with your position, but they are useful.
    Mar 14, 2014. 02:33 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment