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Abu Bakr Hussain  

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  • With Or Without You Cyclacel Is Going To Rise [View article]
    Great stuff. I started tracking CYCC as soon as this article was published. I've also read all your articles now. V. impressive. You see, it doesn't actually matter what you write, how you write it, paragraph structure. All of that doesn't matter. What matters is the mind behind the words, I am in deep admiration of the calls you make. V impressive, thank you for your posts, stocktalks and comments!
    Sep 20, 2013. 06:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Baird: BlackBerry burned through $1/share in cash in FQ2 [View news story]
    A PE game would rely on rumours. These are facts. Out of every 5 blackberry employees, 2 are leaving. A billion dollar write off, cash burn of $1 per share this quarter. All facts. No game here, just a sad story.
    Sep 20, 2013. 06:51 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Baird: BlackBerry burned through $1/share in cash in FQ2 [View news story]
    I have to admit, I am surprised at the scale of this devastation. Having said that, Blackberry's positioning and marketing strategy has been terrible for several years now. Even as they fall into the abyss, i'm not sure they're reacting properly. One needs to make product its consumers want to buy. It doesn't matter if you make toilet cleaners, if it makes you a billion dollars, you make toilet cleaners. I think BBRY got hypnotised by the allure of trying to sell to CFOs.
    But you know who actually used to love BBRYs 2-3 years ago? Teenagers, spotty, unglamourous teenagers buying them by the bucketload. Where are the products to appeal to them? What, they have no voice? (are they not elite enough?) Well, you know what, those teenagers, who were all on Blackberrys are now buying budget Samsungs.
    Opportunity lost, and it won't come again.
    Goodbye Blackberry.
    Sep 20, 2013. 06:26 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Nokia Shorts Were Right All Along, And Fatally Wrong At The Same Time [View article]
    Congratulations on your first article Seppo! I think you make some very interesting points and I would be inclined to agree. I still think Nokia could have gotten more for what they sold however. The funny thing is, even people who are happy with the sale, I'm sure would be happier if Microsoft/someone else, made a better bid.
    Sep 9, 2013. 10:00 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Questions The Nokia Board Of Directors Need To Answer [View article]
    Thanks Dtails - to be honest, to gain traction on this issue. We need a lot of people raising a lot of questions. I appreciate the support this article has generated, but it's just a one-off (at present). What we all need to do really is to keep banging the drum on this. Due to work reasons, sadly I can't publish something else until at least Thursday.
    Now, regarding the people "happy with the deal". Great. Some things in life are elastic, we can go back to the way things were before, some things are plastic, they just can't go back. I don't think any of us are naive enough to believe Nokia is going to come out of this with nothing changed.
    However, even those people happy with the deal, I'm sure they'd all be even happier if Microsoft tossed another billion or so dollars onto the deal to sweeten the pie. I'm sure they could figure out a face saving way to do that. All we need to do on our side is create enough traction to get the big boys (big media/shareholders), talking about it. If that happens, anything can happen next.
    Sep 8, 2013. 11:46 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Just How Reasonable Is A Free Amazon Smartphone? Apple Provides The Answer [View article]
    Great article as always.
    I remember the phones from 2003. Good times
    http://bit.ly/1e50Epz
    Sep 8, 2013. 08:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Questions The Nokia Board Of Directors Need To Answer [View article]
    Charles - forgive me for my bluntness, but i asked questions in this article. It was beyond the scope of this to answer my own questions, especially since they are addressed to the board. It's really up to them to justify these valuations, not me. I will probably in due course address some of the various topics arising from this article. Perhaps if you can tell me why Xiaomi is worth more than Nokia, i'll have something to work with.
    Sep 7, 2013. 03:41 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Questions The Nokia Board Of Directors Need To Answer [View article]
    Well Tide - no feelers required. Lots of companies with the capital I am sure are right now investigating if it is possible to break the deal. If they start sniffing something, don't be surprised to hear rumours in the press very soon.
    Btw, I love your line about the Nokia board being "sequestered away".
    Sep 7, 2013. 11:55 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Questions The Nokia Board Of Directors Need To Answer [View article]
    Lol Andreas. Corporate Munchausen by proxy. Yes, I think you might be onto something there. Any C-level bigwig, NOK or MSFT thinking that they would have had 10% market share by Jan 2013 was utterly deluded. Having said that, Nokia was poised to hit 10% in several European countries as of now, 9 months on. That's Nokia, not Microsoft. Let's see how Microsoft does that. Microsoft might pour in another $2bn per annum marketing to force its WP to be a success. But that still won't buy the brand value that Nokia had.
    Sep 7, 2013. 11:53 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Questions The Nokia Board Of Directors Need To Answer [View article]
    Thanks La Rue =)
    Sep 7, 2013. 06:17 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Nokia Phones Make A Comeback In 2015? [View article]
    AH - Your second post, I agree with entirely. As i've stated elsewhere, the BoD would have us believe selling was the only solution. With 85% of the WP market, they should have tried to force Microsoft's hand towards helping re-capitalise Nokia.
    Regarding sailfish etc. - If they want to do it again. You're right, I don't see how the brand will still be a viable proposition in 2.25 years time. It was difficult enough gaining traction with Lumias. To do it again, with an untested OS, would be madness.
    Sep 7, 2013. 05:15 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Questions The Nokia Board Of Directors Need To Answer [View article]
    Hi Josh, they're two different companies.
    "Old" Nokia had D&S, NSN and HERE. NSN represented a source of stability to the company whilst D&S represented a large potential source of future growth.
    "New" Nokia removes D&S and effectively just leaves NSN better resourced.
    So essentially what has happened is that it has changed overnight from a high-risk/high-growth stock into a dividend/anchor type stock. Both types of stock have their uses, but lots of people who came in for the former (like me), won't stay for the latter. This happened in reverse a couple of years back where lots of dividend seeking owners left and people like "us" came in.
    Now as it happens, I think Nokia might try to go it alone again and create its own bespoke Jolla/Sailfish etc. OS and launch new phones 1Q16. Will that work? At first blush, it seems a bit quixotic to me. Any investment into that would affect Nokia's current cash pile. That might be a potential downside risk. Another is that as Jacob Steinberg points out, NSN's chief competitors are two subsidised chinese companies, ZTE and Huawei. A free market works only when the market is "free" and not stacked in one side's favour. That presents another risk.
    I'd love to tell you that companies don't just select vendors based on price. But 99% of the people reading this, well, you all know how corporate buying policies work. Quality has a say. After price.
    Sep 7, 2013. 05:08 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Microsoft Doubles Down On Nokia Mobile: Now What? [View article]
    Kofi - On June 26th you wrote the following:
    "Do not short BlackBerry stock."
    http://bit.ly/13qiUCT

    Within 1 week, it was trading 30% lower

    On August 14th you wrote the following:
    "Nokia stock is a strong sell. Cash-rich partner Microsoft has already refused to acquire the Nokia business at the negotiating table."
    http://bit.ly/13qiWKX

    3 Weeks later, Nokia stoke was up over 40% after Microsoft acquired D&S.
    Perhaps you could address these mistakes in future articles.
    Sep 6, 2013. 08:10 PM | 16 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Questions The Nokia Board Of Directors Need To Answer [View article]
    DWD - Thanks for your detailed answers. I don't think there is a binary solution here of either completely selling the D&S division to MSFT or keeping it. There are lots of other things that could have been done. I think it's worth bearing in mind they agreed several months before negotiations must be completed by "September 3rd". To me, that's a very artificial temporal deadline not based on company fundamentals. Imagine if they had agreed a deal in principle to be activated only if Nokia reached below a certain cash threshold. I am not saying Nokia's position was easy. However, they also did have sufficient cash for now and in all likelihood were close to achieving break-even status.
    Nokia's position was remarkably strong. If they left WP, Microsoft's quest to create a new mobile ecosystem would have failed. it is because of Nokia's brand that WP8 has prospered. Why do I know that with such certainty? Because the HTC 8X was the flagship WP8 phone of Microsoft in November 2012. HTC got the initial lion's share of marketing. But it was the L920 and Nokia which prospered, despite this lack of attention. Nokia has continually pushed the platform to increasing numbers. People in India aren't buying Nokia's because they run WP8. They're buying Nokias because they're Nokias. Now, at a stroke, that reason gets taken away.
    Sure, if Nokia needed to sell, sell. But this deal fundamentally undervalues D&S. Even if one is happy with the sale, if Nokia did renegotiate the price upwards, it would only be of benefit to current longs.
    Sep 6, 2013. 07:48 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Questions The Nokia Board Of Directors Need To Answer [View article]
    Joshua, we don't know that. Ballmer seems to have been under the delusion that the "Nokia Lumia 1020" was called the "Nokia Lumia Windows Phone 1020". He thinks that's long winded. We know Nokia will get dropped as they don't own the naming rights, but I think it's quite probable the new naming scheme might be as simple as "Windows Phone 1020".
    Sep 6, 2013. 07:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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