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Abu Bakr Hussain

 
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  • Nokia's Genius Move: Was It Wrongly Viewed As A Catastrophic Mistake? [View article]
    I think Nokia's success lies in the fact that on ALL technology websites they are comparing head-to-heads of Nokia vs Apple. And in the comments sections the debate is roughly 50/50. That is the astonishing thing, a phone with less than 1% of the popularity of the Iphone (previous generations compared) being on a parity in debate is a great result for Nokia. If they had kept the phone under wraps, no one would be talking about it right now. So they certainly got that right.
    HOWEVER - Apple's marketing machine is outstanding, and the Apple presentation was miles away better than the Nokia presentation. The thing is, to put together a great presentation doesn't cost that much. it is obvious how apple do it and Nokia seriously need to step up their game on this. This is an existential crisis for Nokia and they need to succeed for 100,000 people to keep their jobs (under an independent Nokia). For that, they seriously need to make the right marketing choices every step of the way for the next 2-3 years.
    Nokia have a superior product to Apple, if they market the Lumia 920 right it will keep them in the game till next year.
    And NEXT year, I am confident Nokia will produce an incredible phone which may sell as much, if not more than Samsung's top phones. (i base that on the development of Nokia's pureview technology, greater consumer awareness of Nokia products, and of course people coming out of 2 year contracts). But for that to happen, the engineers at Nokia need a company that still exists.
    Sep 15, 2012. 07:01 AM | 21 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia: Come On Mr. Icahn, Come To Our Rescue! [View article]
    If you want to oppose the deal. I'm all in. I think as we are only retail investors who understand Nokia, even all of us collectively lack the clout to prevent the acquisition going through. Best way is to explain to the public how much D&S has been undersold by. That will put a lot of pressure on the BoD over the next couple of months running up to their EGM. In terms of pure votes, ordinary shareholders can't stop it. But there are lots of ways to pressure Nokia publicly. Questions need to be asked.
    It is especially pertinent to know who was negotiating on Nokia's behalf and whether Elop had a conflict of interest. As one Nokian put it: "i'd want to see every email sent by Elop over the last couple of years"
    http://bit.ly/17pFWXP
    I think that might be a little extreme. But I also think it must be accepted that a CEO who was bookies' favourite to leave to become CEO of Microsoft, may not have been acting fully in Nokia's best interests.
    Sep 3, 2013. 03:52 PM | 18 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Microsoft Doubles Down On Nokia Mobile: Now What? [View article]
    Kofi - On June 26th you wrote the following:
    "Do not short BlackBerry stock."
    http://bit.ly/13qiUCT

    Within 1 week, it was trading 30% lower

    On August 14th you wrote the following:
    "Nokia stock is a strong sell. Cash-rich partner Microsoft has already refused to acquire the Nokia business at the negotiating table."
    http://bit.ly/13qiWKX

    3 Weeks later, Nokia stoke was up over 40% after Microsoft acquired D&S.
    Perhaps you could address these mistakes in future articles.
    Sep 6, 2013. 08:10 PM | 16 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Memo To Microsoft: Walk Away From Nokia [View article]
    Well you see, in a previous article, Kofi said Microsoft is dead weight to Nokia
    http://bit.ly/12qHeRw

    Now in this particular article, Nokia is dead to Microsoft.
    So basically, they're both dead to each other.
    I think Woody Allen said it best, in a relationship, both parties need to keep on moving, like a shark to stay alive.
    What we have here is a dead shark. http://bit.ly/1aG8NyV

    The only solution is finding the right eager-to-please hipster for them both.
    I think that's what he's saying anyway as its mentioned in both articles...
    Alternative explanations welcome
    Jul 14, 2013. 10:18 PM | 16 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Think Twice Before Betting On Nokia At Current Price - Part 1 [View article]
    that is incorrect, he only mentions his red nokia l920 in 27 of his 31 posts. in a further 2 he references he owns a Nokia.
    Whilst it is amusing, it is still interesting the way Nokia ignites such positive passion now. I doubt this was true 2 years ago.
    Mar 6, 2013. 04:30 PM | 16 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Cannot Be Valued: Warren Buffett Knows This And You Should Too [View article]
    He doesn't need to. I don't care if he doesn't know how to use the Mail app, i know he knows about the supply chain fundamentals, the marketing fundamentals, consumer sentiments, the rumours, the financials, he knows all of those things enough to make a judgment.
    and what i like most is, like all geniuses, he knows enough to say 'i do not know.
    i greatly respect people who are confident enough to say they cannot make a decision, it shows an awareness of their own limitations.
    Nov 12, 2012. 03:17 PM | 16 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Cannot Be Valued: Warren Buffett Knows This And You Should Too [View article]
    Danny do not mock others so lightly. Buffett has achieved much in his life, mostly by seeing the future where others only saw haze. Be careful about how you belittle a man who will be considered one of the greatest investors the world has ever known.
    Nov 12, 2012. 02:55 PM | 15 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry's New Mistake - Q5 Pricing Makes It A Surefire Loser [View article]
    gchaput - they'd be broadly correct (sorry).
    Jul 22, 2013. 03:58 PM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: Shut It Down [View article]
    Frank - yes as far as i'm aware WP 8.1 will go to all current WP8 devices.
    BB's market has always been about the qwerty keyboard. i strongly suspect that those comfortable with fullsize touchscreens have already left the company. I've seen the Q10 and played with it. it's a great phone. The Q10 should have been the flagship centrepoint of the BB strategy. Not the Z10 and certainly not the A10.
    The problem is, that BBRY has so little time, that they need to make all the right moves. Nokia's back was completely against the wall going into 4q12, if WP8 had flopped, Elop would have been fired and NOK would probably now be a takeover target.. but it didn't flop and they made the right moves. I just don't see BBRY making enough right moves in the right amount of time.
    All I know is the marketing I'm being fed to over here in the UK (prime bb territory), and i just see it directed at CIOs with not enough 'cool' factor.
    I am not a short (it is against my personal religious principles to short any stock).
    I also do not think BBRY will fall any further from where it is (well there's v limited downside at the moment anyway).
    What I do not see is BB10 succeeding as a third platform. The upside potential for me only comes from its potential as a takeover target. There are a lot of cash rich folk out there, I'm sure someone is right now eying up BBRY very very carefully.
    Jul 21, 2013. 09:14 AM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia Is Neither HERE Nor There [View article]
    Andreas.. Nicely reasoned article thank you.. I have to ask you though, that even with all of your points, you didn't value HERE. How much would you value it at? Regardless of how much it was bought for then, it must be worthy of a valuation considering it is integral to Nokia, Microsoft and the W8/WP8 ecosystem.
    Jul 17, 2013. 10:45 AM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia Goes Big With The Lumia 625 [View article]
    Since when is 24% gross margins - "no margin"?
    edit - If Lenovo does make that rumoured phone - i'd be very happy. WP8 needs to be a thriving ecosystem and more competition will only help make that happen.
    Jul 23, 2013. 05:41 PM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: Shut It Down [View article]
    Frank - Lumia launched 18 months ago. But WP7 was a false start with no upgrade patth. WP8 launched Nov '12. You are correct, WP8 shows poor traction in the US. But we are talking about the global market here. I don't see how 6.8m sales after the preceding quarter of 6.6 can be construed as anything other than a massive failure. The smartphone business is very cyclical and new products should sell well. Granted if BBRY had several products in the pipeline, we could cut them some slack, but they don't and that's the problem. The Q5 is a nice step but is over-priced and the A10 will flop immediately. BB's phone strategy seems to be designed around the hubris of its senior management and shareholders. Most people are not wealthy, most people need affordable smartphones. The reason BBRY had a late renaissance in the UK was because its phones became the budget smartphone of choice amongst teenagers and others on modest incomes. it wasn't because enterprise was magically switching to BB7. The problem is, its line up is still designed for the corporate crowd and it's treating its real customers as an afterthought.
    If BB had designed a true social networking phone, with a trendy design and trendy marketing, it could really have worked in the UK, but they didn't and they blew their chance.
    The smartphone market keeps on moving on, BBRY is gone. The reason the SP still has any value is because its underlying assets may still be picked up by interested buyers, but otherwise sorry, it's time is up.
    Jul 21, 2013. 07:38 AM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla's Path To A Conservative $500 Per Share [View article]
    “Wittgenstein's ruler: Unless you have confidence in the ruler's reliability, if you use a ruler to measure a table you may also be using the table to measure the ruler.” ―Nassim Nicholas Taleb

    I am sorry friend, but this article says more about your thought processes than it does about Tesla.
    More importantly, I think this article profoundly indicates the growing weakness of the "bullish" sentiment on Tesla. After all, one does not own a stock for it to stagnate, one owns stocks for dividends or capital growth. Any non-momentum investor will be looking for evidence of growth beyond what the market has already priced in. Is it there? Not really.
    There was a time when i would have felt sorry for any retail investor who would make a loss on Tesla's impending fall from its heady valuations. I think that time has now passed, its shareholders have had enough warning.
    Oct 29, 2013. 03:30 AM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia: From Survivor To Challenger [View article]
    Seppo - yes I'm taking it as very bullish signals that there were no price drop offs Post-L1020 and post-ER though both did have attempts to lower the price down (e.g. a mass sell off exactly one hour before the L1020 announcement which then recovered once people realised how amazing the phone was)

    Herve - Excellent article thank you.
    I really hope I'm wrong about Nokia's feature phone biz. All I can say is the numbers don't lie. We saw amazing Asha numbers 4Q12 which have dropped off again last 2 quarters. Rest of the old feature phone line-up is cratering.
    Maybe there is hope for recovery, i'm not counting on it though. I'm much more excited about the Lumia range. We could conceivably hit 12-13 million sales 4Q13 which would be a stonking success for Nokia.
    Jul 22, 2013. 03:45 PM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia's Perplexing Q1 2013 Results [View article]
    626 - I think that is an incredibly rich and never-ending discussion to have!
    Now I have the Lumia 920. On my phone, when i look through the WP store, i see approximately 60 (and rising) Nokia exclusive apps. These are either apps Nokia directly developed, or effectively paid money to bring over to the platform. This requires a massive amount of funding as well as focus.
    When one considers the complexity of hardware design, software design, app development, marketing, product integration etc... It is very difficult to see how Nokia could do two ecosystems well at the same time. There isn't a single manufacturer in the world which currently achieves this. HTC tried and effectively gave up. It stated for instance that it will not produce a high end WP phone this year, it will instead focus on the "One" phone.
    So I don't necessarily think it's just a matter of sticking another OS on the same phone and running with it. That won't work.
    However, i do think that many consumers see a massive opportunity with Android. Nokia has a very well developed sense of design, of aesthetics, something that appears lacking with Samsung. They would therefore be a formidable Android competitor. It would be certainly an interesting avenue to consider, but personally I think if after its MSFT deal is over, if it pursues both ecosystems, it will flounder with both.
    It will struggle to differentiate itself from its competitors and even its own phones may be lost in competition to each other in a sea of numbers. i.e an average consumer may struggle to differentiate between a WP Lumia and an Android Nokia.
    I think Nokia has firmly committed itself to WP. It has invested significantly, in time, money and opportunity cost. I think it would be wasteful for it to renege on these investments and switch to Android, the time was 2010, not now. I should think it needs to continue down the WP line. It needs to push to the utmost to ensure WP success. The Android dream is but a chimera, the reality is WP.
    Apr 18, 2013. 05:50 PM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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