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  • One Chart To Watch: Broken Inflation Expectations Suggest Interest Rates Lower, Longer
    Thu, Sep. 4 DBC, DVY, IYR 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Inflation Expectations, a key indicator for Janet Yellen and the Federal Reserve, have decreased.
    • Market-Based measures of inflation expectations, like Breakeven Inflation Rates and Inflation Rate Swaps, have all pushed lower YTD and during August.
    • Lower inflation implies lower interest rates for longer and less urgency for the tightening of U.S. Monetary Policy.
  • Mexico Energy Reform: What To Know Now
    Wed, Sep. 3 EWW 5 Comments

    Summary

    • Legislation to implement energy reforms in Mexico was approved in August, with the spotlight now on actual implementation.
    • Investors should watch players like SENER, Pemex, CNH, and others through recent and upcoming regulatory changes.
    • Energy reform activities will create long-term, growth-enhancing capabilities: from new jobs to lower cost of energy to increased foreign investment.
    • Economic growth could increase to as much as two percentage points higher; benefits will be seen not just in the energy sector but across the society as a whole.
  • How To Capitalize On Economic Reform In India
    Thu, Aug. 21 INDY 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Economic reform is poised to unlock economic growth in India.
    • Stronger GDP growth will require substantial loan growth, benefiting financials.
    • Loan growth will require bank recapitalization, especially for State Owned Banks (SOEs).
    • Private banks are well positioned to gain loan market share and outperform SOEs.
    • INDY is heavily weighted to India’s very under-penetrated financial sector.
  • 4 Countries To Focus On In August
    Wed, Aug. 13 EWZ, EWY, EWI Comment!

    Summary

    • Countries with the strongest fundamental profiles are continuing to outperform the rest of the market.
    • Extra caution needs to be used when investing in developed Europe.
    • South Korea and Brazil are our two fastest rising countries.
    • Italy and Peru are falling in our rankings.
  • What Countries Are Hot? What Should A Momentum Investor Look At Now?
    Fri, Aug. 8 FXI, TUR, EPI 5 Comments

    Summary

    • Country selection is a viable way to approach global equity investing.
    • The momentum factor works across country markets as well as within countries.
    • Select emerging markets have started to outperform over the past 3 months.
  • One Chart To Watch: The Japanese Yen Vs. 10-Year Treasury Yields
    Wed, Aug. 6 FXY, IEF, DXJ Comment!

    Summary

    • From July 17th to July 31st, the Japanese Yen broke its strengthening trend, weakening from ¥101.18/USD to ¥102.80/USD. Meanwhile, the U.S. 10-Year yield increased from 2.44% to 2.56%.
    • The JPY/UST relationship could deteriorate in the coming weeks as USD strength, a bid for U.S. Treasuries, and negative U.S. economic data surprises keep U.S. interest rates anchored.
    • If the relationship holds, the Yen may stay weak and 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yields may move more swiftly towards 2.70%.
  • One Chart To Watch: High-Yield Bonds Vs. S&P 500 Index
    Mon, Jul. 21 SPY, HYG 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Since June, high-yield bond prices and credit spreads have signaled increasing distress in the credit markets.
    • Recession risk is low, and upward pressure on interest rates is only modest.
    • If high-yield bond prices do not stabilize, the probability of a meaningful correction in equities increases.
  • One Chart To Watch: German Economic Growth
    Wed, Jul. 16 EWG 2 Comments

    Summary

    • German economic data continues to decelerate from levels of growth seen last year.
    • Industrial indicators have been in a down trend for 6 months.
    • Investors should look for the next Markit Germany Manufacturing PMI figure, to be released on July 24th.
  • Why Invest In Japan Now?
    Thu, Jul. 10 DXJ, EWJ, NKY 3 Comments

    Summary

    • The explicit policy of the Bank of Japan and Government of Japan is to weaken the Yen and create negative real interest rates, driving asset price inflation.
    • Japan has the “loosest” monetary policy relative to the U.S., Europe, and United Kingdom.
    • “Abenomics” has had a positive impact on asset prices and economic growth, and more accommodative monetary, fiscal, and structural measures are expected in 2014 and beyond.
    • Japan’s valuations are attractive relative to history and the world, while Japan’s earnings are strong and ROE has exhibited relative strength.
    • After consolidating in Q1 2014, equity price momentum has turned positive.
  • 4 Countries To Focus On In July
    Thu, Jul. 10 ENOR, EIDO, EPI Comment!

    Summary

    • Intra-Regional differences are becoming more pronounced and need to be evaluated before investing internationally.
    • Norway and India are our two fastest rising countries.
    • Indonesia and France are falling in our rankings.
  • Where To Invest In The EU
    Thu, Jun. 12 EPOL, EWD, EWI 2 Comments

    Summary

    • The ECB took three key steps to increase liquidity and stimulate the economy.
    • Momentum within the ECB countries has not been consistent.
    • Fundamentals and valuations of ECB countries need to be considered.
    • Spain, Sweden, and the U.K. are our highest ranked ECB countries.
  • 4 Countries To Focus On In June
    Tue, Jun. 10 ECH, ENOR, EWG 3 Comments

    Summary

    • Emerging markets are gaining momentum and increasing their representation in the top part of our country ranking model.
    • Norway and Indonesia are our two fastest rising countries.
    • Chile and Germany are continue to drop in our rankings.
  • Can A Tactical ETF Strategy Be Used As A Liquid Alternative?
    Mon, Jun. 9 AGG, ACWI Comment!

    Summary

    • The rise of tactical asset allocators and the use of dynamic beta has increased substantially since 2008.
    • Tactical and balanced portfolio groups show favorable returns, but significantly higher standard deviation to the alternative indexes.
    • Tactical managers are generally more volatile than both the benchmark and the alternative universe.
    • Tactical managers exhibit similar correlation characteristics as alternative investments.
  • The Global Insider: May Country Rankings
    Wed, May. 14 ACWI, EIDO, EPU Comment!

    Summary

    • Value factors, which have been the best driver of performance over the last 12 months, are the only factor group to make a positive contribution this year.
    • Select emerging markets are quickly moving up the rankings with accelerating momentum and improving fundamentals.
    • The three best performing markets in 2013 (US, Germany and Japan) are all trailing the MSCI ACWI on the year.
  • Mexico: A Country In Transition
    Tue, May. 13 EWW 2 Comments

    Summary

    • With energy reform finally becoming a reality, Mexico is showing itself to be very aware of how to compete internationally.
    • Energy reform could mean strong momentum and outlook for Mexico, with high potential for increase in jobs, GDP, and demand for goods and services.
    • Mexico ranks high in fundamentals and risk, though low overall in our country ranking model.
  • Europe: Market Capitalization Vs. Smart Beta
    Wed, Apr. 30 IEV, VGK 2 Comments

    Summary

    • A deeper dive, below the regional level, is necessary to take advantage of a wider range of country returns.
    • Not all of the countries in Europe are attractive, as we see the full spectrum of momentum, valuations, risks and fundamentals in the developed countries of Europe.
    • A non-market capitalization weighted “smart beta” approach to Europe is better suited for this European investment opportunity.
  • Attractive European Equities: The Smart Beta Portfolio
    Wed, Apr. 30 EWD, EWG, EWI Comment!

    Summary

    • The most effective way to gain exposure to the expected advance in European equities is through a multi-factor “smart beta” portfolio.
    • Focus on systematically weighting developed European countries based upon country level fundamentals, momentum, risk and valuations.
    • Variations between attractiveness and market capitalization are at the heart of the “smart beta” vs. market capitalization discussion.
  • What Countries Are Hot, And What Should A Momentum Investor Buy Now?
    Tue, Mar. 11 EIS, EWC, EWP 4 Comments

    Summary

    • Country selection is a viable way to approach global equity investing.
    • The momentum factor works across country markets as well as within countries.
    • Market performance across countries has diverged greatly in the last 12 months.
  • What Countries Are Cheap For A Value Investor To Buy Now?
    Fri, Mar. 7 ERUS, EWO, EWY 14 Comments

    Summary

    • Country selection is a viable way to approach global equity investing.
    • The value factor works across country markets as well as within countries.
    • There are currently large differences in valuation between countries, both in Emerging Markets as well as in different regions.
    • Single-country ETFs are a good way to buy cheap.
  • Just One ETF: Momentum, Fundamentals - and a Good Value in Russia Fund
    Apr. 26, 2011 RSX 2 Comments