Contributor since: 2008
Company: ACE International Domaine
YO bigazul, RIO will lose big time with its iron ore deals with China as China will pull back from its commitments to building hig risers and steel for smaller real estate manufacturing. China GDP to fall by 5-6 percent over this year and 2013. This will be reflected in RIO losing pricing deals and income.
ACEMAN, Cafe Mazerine, Paris.
YO Cam, right on the money especially regarding Aussie land and iron ore exports to China. Also, what about all those investors who are backing IVN and RIO in Mongolia, I think they are in for a big surprise, too.
Keep up the good work!
ACEMAN, cafe Mazarine, Paris.
As goes commodities, goes the Aussie dollar, and China's Yuan is not too far behind. The Chinese inventory of Aussie iron ore, and copper is a key ingredient ti watch in the FXA and other economic developments, especially the present Aussie government's tax on the major commodity players in Aussie land which is also affecting general countrywide incomes and capital gains. The FXA is not the same as it was in the late spring and early summer of 2008 when commodities off their cliff dive rebounded and became a income machine for the government. However,present leadership appears anti commodity giants such as BHP and RIO. The FXA will continue to be dogged by absurd tax schemes and the AUD will continue to fall.
ACEMAN, Cafe Maubillion, Paris
We like RIO and BGC, thus own both and SOHAF, the big Silver company in Chile.
ACEMAN, Cafe Maubillon, Paris.
We continue to buy RIO and buy BGC as a binary stock to RIO.
ACEMAN, Cafe Maubillon, Paris.
I agree with the valuation, it's very similar to our valuation and we have been buying RIO since May of 2008. The issue for me buying RIO is all the BS about Mongolia. I can't imagine that RIO would alienate stock owners to the extent thst they mishandled Australian politcs. However, stockholders can't be stuck holding the bag as RIO tries to deal with Chinese and former Russian interests in Mongolia, especially regarding infrastructure costs. The latest deal with BGC has the taint of a RIO capitulation.
ACEMAN Cafe des Invalides, Paris. ACEMAN
Maybe it's a question of esthetics when it comes to valuing BP's numbers. However, the scale of BP's business is mighty to behold and should do well in the North Sea and off the coast of Brazil.
ACEMAN, Cafe Mazerin, Paris
Yes BP is undervalued especially when one reviews BP's working the North Sea Shelf area in waters that are extemely harsh and dangerous and they are drilling and pumping oil and nat gas even at below market long term rates. But is this the best use of BP's resources? This is where the rubber hits the road.
ACEMAN, Cafe Cortona, Paris
I would like to add that your case would be better understood and perhaps proven, if you would show how the outside shocks to supply and demand would affect regional producers.
What I don't see is what investors are buying in non-Western markets.The failure to understand that there are markets other than in the US, London and europe is a real failure in your title and your observations. Think about markets and stocks in Israel, Korea, Japan and especially China, or have you bought the WallStreet dogma that only the US sector is worth investing in. Remember, china's growth and determination will out perform on a world GDP basis the US within the next decade. What you have to do is spend some time finding out these important stocks on your own and not from someone's list, but dig in and you'll find the diamond's in the rough as I have. It helps to have an independent spirit and the ability to look into the future a bit especially when it comes to the "third Industrial Revolution" that is going on around the world but not in the US, UK, France or Germany, former home of the second Industrial revolution.Keep your eyes open and your powder dry.
ACEMAN, Paris, France le 9th.
Yo Dividend King, re ATPG, their is no such fiction as "where other companies have no interest," this is merely good nonsense.
ACEMAN. Cafe Cortona, Paris, France
What you are missing is that instead of Graham style valuations, all you need to know is the autoregression on price. the best way to do this is with Bolinger Bands and price distributions around the right tail. The reference to "shocks" is that there are regional price shocks that are related to international price shocks and once you know this you can determine the regional percentage shocks impact on the stock up or down (think of oil, for example). We rely on the mathematics to give us a better view of change in pricing, valuation models can't give you the percentage shock or response to changes in the regional and international environment.
ACEMAN cafe Maubillon, Paris, France
YO Jase Jun!
given your bias toward the so-called "value investor" style portfolio, why do you own NINE? In my estimation, it does not fit the typical pattern for a value investor and especially a Graham inspired investor at that!I have bought NINE but on a completely different basis namely on the transmission of international shocks to the domestic economy. We hypothesize that such separation is important for identifying shocks that are common across the world and shocks thar are region specific, affecting in particular small open economies that trade within a certain geographicql area. In this way it is not important to apply valuation techniques but rather we estimate a three block FAVAR model with separate world, regional and domestic blocks. this gives us findings on the business cycle which includes regional factors in small open, regional economies. NINE fits rather well and we are making money.
ACEMAN, at Cafe Cortona ,San Ramon
Not at all. It is the technology I'm referring to, namely the LHD Latereral Hydraulic Drilling that SSN brought from Australia to the Bakken and etc. The very same technology is being used in Southwest China for oil recovery purposes.
We continue to buy SSN because of its future in oil and gas recovery from old wells in east Texas, the gulf coast, Oklahoma and Kansas where SSN's technology and drilling skills are paramount.I was an original buyer of SSN at .56 USD and at today's prices feel the stock is at a major discount. We are also looking at Chinese companies with similar characteristics and oil and gas recovery systems, notably CTESY.Happy hunting!
ACEMAN, Rue de buci, Paris, France
That ain't drill bits coming at you, but rather your money looking for an exit!
ACEMAN at Cafe Cortona
Y'all left out the bigest and the best, namely Randgold: GOLD. The South African miner has increased more than 6000% going back to ten years and should continue to climb due to overall instability in major markets. This should not be seen as merely a short term hold because if held for the next five to ten years the economics of the Eurozone, China and Asia will not have changed much, it will look pretty much the same as today.
ACEMAN at the CAFE Cortona just back from Bankrupt Paris, France.
Yo wunnerful: As I sit at my table at the Cafe M at the intersection of Blvd Lafayette and Blvd Chataudun, I watch and count the new German models on the streets, namely MBZ, Audi, VW and Porche. There is nary an American car except for the Chrysler Sebring--perhaps one or two a day vs hundreds of German autos. What is happening today has nothing to do with the politics of the 30's and the realpolitik of Hitler and the German hierarchy.The real joke on the streets as I talk with the small hedge fund guys who come to the M Cafe as their canteen is that President Sarkozy's new baby is really the daughter of his relationship with Angela Merkel! The implication is clear as baby Giulia has been held from official photographs and we haven't seen the baby's face even though the mother is supposed to be Carla Bruni, Le President's epouse.
Nonetheless, there is great anxiety that China will buy a huge amount of Euro's and thus give a boost to the lending ability of creating a real central bank with Chinese money in an Insurance fund for the Euro. What is obvious is that the streets in the high end streets of the Latin Quarter one can hear Chinese being spoken and some menu's are written in Chinese as well as museum descritions of the names of Art on the walls. One of my friends is an art dealer and he mentions that for the first time Chinese buyers are coming into his gallery and are most interested in the art of the 1920's and the Paris School of Picasso, Derain, Modigliano, Monet and Cezanne. Of course these are merely personal observations but they tend to give some credence to Chinese appetite for French culture, French architecture and French Metro stations, all of which I believe the Chinese would like to emulate in the next few years.
ACEMAN in Paris, M Cafe, 9th arrondissement.
I am in Paris now and have been meeting with bankers at major banks and in the new hedge fund operations in the 9th arrondissement where I live. If ever there was a disconnect from reality it is in this community: it appears that most I talk to are strangely anti-American and pro-German who espouse the notion that the US and Germany will bail out Greece and Europe. Most talk about a private insurance fund funded by wall Street and German interests that a country such as Greece or Portugal would, in effect borrow money for a financial life insurance policy, call it a premium, and sell the policy to US interests or German banks and companies. Variations on this theme abound but with little conviction or belief that it will turn out for the best. Having spent some time in Munich, I can say that there is a new German Army and they are everywhere representing German firms as consultants and product sellers. they are all working very hard and are highly competitive from my observation. This is not the case in Paris. I've met US sales reps who believe that the French are not willing to make commitments to buying products that they have bought in the past. This is a kind of "protectionism" as mentioned to me. After all, there are multiple products that US sales folks can sell to the French, but are not getting through to the proper authorities unless they are German. It is subtle and not so subtle protectionism. Meanwhile economies will fail if they cannot sell industrial products offshore. It is that simple. It is not a question of credit availability but rather a belief that governement ministers would rather deal with German interests rather than American.
ACEMAN in the 9th Paris
Your plan seems credible. At this very moment I am in Paris and talking to Junior bankers of major French banks and many of them are considering a bond insurance answer to their lack of liquidity. However, the main hang up seems to be the inability to control spending on favorite projects that have been in the works for some time and include lots of jobs to satisfy trade unions and the ordinary man on the street. If France shows any weakness to act, they will not be able to save the Euro even if Germany decides to go at it alone. The price will be too great. Greece is more than contagion it is a cancer, perhaps an inoperable cancer.
ACEMAN a Paris, 9th.
Yo Dr! Forever is a long time! How do you define "forever"? Why do you need Mr Cramer as your support? When you mention Gold why do you accept that Gold has little or no utility-- a Buffett ideology! Why not show us,say, how silver was the mode of exchange in the 17th century trade between Europe and China and Southeast Asia. Obviously both sides of the trade could measure the relative value? so why not now? there are historical and cultural precedents for gold and silver's relative value given nascent capitalism.
YO CAM, are you not realizing that every thing you mentioned as "financial engineering" was played with during the past four decades especially in the real estate sector. As per usual, the Chinese are adopting what the West has used to bamboozle investors. They will soon find out that the West is truly bankrupt in terms of money and ideas.
YO Vatalyst: T. Boone Slim Pickens ain't no Guru. He has lost billions of investors money and interests over the years while pocketing his high commissions. Y'all need to do some real detective work and look into his IPO's and private Placements over the last twenty years and then you'll realize he ain't the Guru you seem to think he is. Furthermore, the Guru is motivated to sell-out your grand mother's property for a mason jar's worth of oil.
ACEMAN, Cafe Cortona
YO OLD Wizard! What you seem to not know is that oil prices are tied to futures and the USDollar. As the dollar has risen against the YEN, Euro and etc. so has the price of oil. futures markets reflect this binary relationship especially with respect to seasonality.
YO Banks, what is the title of your book, I'd like to read it. and when did you speak in Vienna, or was it at the Salzburg Global Oil Forum? Maybe a few straight facts and we could take you seriously, but as it stands you seem to want to impress us without the facts. Have you really written a book oil oil that discusses fraccing and oil shale? When was it published and by whom? Under what name? what are your credentials?
How do you get to $2.00 per barrell? You need to force WTI and Brent ?Crude to about $35 p/b and then release all the Oil reserves in the US. It's possible but it would bring on a worldwide deflation and some nations such as Japan would truly collapse and would demand their $900B in UST's which would cause a run on the treasury and a world collapse in most prices. It would be a Bachman Bubble leading to a Bachman Crash.
ACEMAN , Paris, the sixth.
yo hock, WHERE ARE THE FACTS. my man? Just because you've lived in Europe doesn't mean you understand European ideas and economics. I myself live in France half the year and refuse to be drawn into the argument of what will fix either France, Germany or Belgium. In truth Belgium is an interesting case, it is now more than two years without a government and the country seems to be doing fine.The problem is the great divide between the Flemish and French speaking factions to the extent that both sides are willing to build a stone wall the length of the country. I find your ad hominum attack on Soros to be without merit and is intellectual cheating, you are playing to the crowd. Why don't you lift a passage from one of his speeches that annoys you and parse it for us given your ideology or framework. all you are doing is building intellectual walls.
ACEMAN Paris, le Sixth
YO HOCK! Since when can't you solve a debt overhang problem with more debt(!). Excuse me, but since May of 2008 that is precisely what Ben Bernanke has done and we are better off because of it. It has stimulated the stock markets around the world to the extent that some of us have taken advantage of the stimulus to make some real money. The debt and its overhang have made stocks cheap and cheaper compared to Corporate bonds and TIPS. Maybe you are locked into a stereotype of a debt overhang and can't see the benefits?
ACEMAN at Cafe Cortona
Yo Carlos, you still haven't identified the flaw or logic in Soros' scheme, maybe you could give us a studied example so that we could all appreciate your disdain and detest of the man. Give us something substantial instead of innuendo and talking about talk.
ACEMAN at the Cafe Cortona
YO JON! Sugar ain't good for a Cowboy and certainly not when it calls itself Imperial Sugar, more of the same Fumier as yesterday?! Y'alls need to tighten up on your French and study Chinese or Mongolian.
YO AL and Jon: most of y'all are city slickers and don't know which end of the cow to feed, much les spend time in a stock yard. The example of y'alls analysis is pure armchair farming in the thing called agriculture. I would suggest y'all call someone from y'alls local Ag School or Extension and find out what the term "agriculture" means and why it is a business, too. Y'all just can't read prices to get a fix on the World's agriculture, Y'all need a better compass for that and a world atlas will help y'aal, too.
ACEMAN, my boots have been in Cow Fumier
Forget about the stocks discussed, sounds like a loser to me, but look at NVGN a big winner today up 24.39% and mispriced by Ganaxi in his chart.