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  • Acadia Hits Home Run In Phase III Trial And Brings Market Focus To Parkinson's [View article]
    further, on AMBS -- appears there was a play to artificially lower the stock price. Company just changed cuspID and name to force naked short cover. Happened yesterday (12/3)....Stock has been pounded to the level where the whole AMBS market cap is about $6 million.

    It has a defended patent. The chief scientist discovered MANF, was at the national institutes of health in a senior position, etc -- in other words top shelf science. Animal studies show drug improves BEHAVIOR in parkinsons. Also diffuses in tissue better than a drug in phase II trials (important for targeting in the brain.)

    In addition, MANF is a general "protect a cell from death" (portects against Apostosis - a common pathway of cell death for damaged cells).

    The drug has positive trials for HEART as well as BRAIN. In heart attacks, animal studies shows it decrease the size of a heart attack by 40%!!!! 40% is the difference in some cases of walking around or being confined to a wheelchair or needing a heart transplant.....

    The damaged muscle in the heart after blockage of blood flow comes from dead heart muscle cells. MANF makes the size of the dead spot 40% smaller. Live tissue = tissue that pumps blood. Dead tissue = floppy paper bag that can't pump blood.

    The CEO is doing great things to protect and extend AMBS. News expected in the next few weeks. AMGEN founder joined board.

    HUGE discount right now ($0.018 as of end of 12/3 trading day). 250 million shares out. more than half cloistered with founding team, so float only about 100 million shares.
    Dec 4, 2012. 09:09 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Election Is Over - Time To Think About An Investment Strategy For The Next 4 Years [View article]
    "owner" of XIN -- definitely thinks like a saavy entrepeneur & sees stockholders as customers too....

    Real estate ops guy. Great recipe -- reasonably priced land. low inventory of undeveloped property, quality, farily priced housing for middle class, turn-over assets quickly. Repeat numerous times...

    Here's a link to some more background as well. Good luck, Friday earnings should be fun! (& profitable)

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Nov 7, 2012. 02:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Xinyuan Real Estate: Still the World's Cheapest Stock? [View article]
    100 million in profit for they NY investment = nice trophy for shareholder value.

    Important for all to do their own diligence. If inclined to buy, would not wait too long - stock has not broken to the upside yet, even though it is about 30% up from a month or so ago and nearly 100% off it's 1.7x lows last year.

    Momentum seems to be moving in the stock's favor. Last quarter China with strong earnings out of real estate -- XIN will be announcing soon... once it announces, could well be another jump up.
    Nov 1, 2012. 11:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Xinyuan Real Estate: Still the World's Cheapest Stock? [View article]
    institutional investors have been increasing their stake in XIN -- diversifying to multiple funds.

    Issue for the institutions = liquidity -- there hasn't been enough float and volume to be attractive to the big funds.
    Oct 23, 2012. 06:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Xinyuan Real Estate: Still the World's Cheapest Stock? [View article]
    Vanke, for one. Vanke bought land similar to XIN.

    XIN beat Vanke (A very large chinese competitor)...to win it's land.

    Vanke sells for a multiple of XIN -- last I checked, it was trading at a multiple of 6 or so to XIN -- which would confirm the $20/share valuation others have discussed.

    Poly is another one.
    Oct 23, 2012. 06:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Xinyuan Real Estate: Still the World's Cheapest Stock? [View article]
    yes, possible & possible that NASA didn't land on the moon.

    At some point, we all need to make our own assessments & either agree or agree to disagree.

    Another point not mentioned recently is that the principal has been involved in real estate for ages as an operational force. Also, the business model has proven to survive and somewhat thrive, even in a down market -- buy reasonably priced land, build quickly and sell to buyers with reasonable resources. Repeat.
    Oct 23, 2012. 05:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Xinyuan Real Estate: Still the World's Cheapest Stock? [View article]
    agree - he's a politician celebrating a community win.... happens to be XIN. Chinese xyre.com site + 3rd party sites showing XIN properties and sales = part of a number of components of diligience available to the investor
    Oct 23, 2012. 05:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Xinyuan Real Estate: Still the World's Cheapest Stock? [View article]
    in the US, a picture of a politician celebrating success is fair game to post on the web. The fact that a national level politician is in the XIN picture, suggests there is something about the buildings that are real.
    Oct 23, 2012. 05:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Top 5 Performing China Stocks During The Week Ending October 19 [View article]
    Another one taking a good run is XIN (Xinyuan real estate) --was IPO on the NYSE. trades at a discount. Book is $10/share. Current price -= $3./share. details below. The stock is on the move - up 10% on Friday with big volume 1.2 mm = 3 to 4x avg and crossed $3.00 a psychological barrier and had strength going into the day, closing at $3.08 --- just below the 3.1x tech barrier. A short, medium and long trend all pointing bullish....
    If you are interested, would perform diligence quickly - and choose to get in if inclined. May well gap up on Monday. If settles back to mid 2.80s you get an awesome entry point --- but possible that $3 will be the new low, given broader exposure with back to back positive national articles (including bloomberg)
    ----------------------...

    I've done a pile of diligence on XIN & have been tracking it closely. Value and Technical set-up are here. Should have a good quarter to report. There is an overhang of an original investor from the IPO selling some of its position, but other institutionals have been picking up the shares -- more diversity now.

    Funniest thing (and great value) was the company has been accused of not being real by wall street, despite having a very consistent story and excellent numbers. So, what did it do? It bought a piece of land that for condos in brookly williamsburg district for $54 million that was in foreclosure -- AND NOW WALLSTREET CAN SEE THE ASSET (hard to call it fraud :! ) Adding another $50 for build out -- and there were 219 2000 sq condos slated by the previous owner -- XIN may modify the layout & make a few more....

    So math on that 1 project = spend $100 mm. Sell for 220 mm plus (condos in the 2K sq range built in the last 5 years sell for more than $1 mm in the location)

    120 mm profit extra over the next 12-20 months or so... about 70 million shares out -- so just that 1 project will add $1.62/share of profits.. Or looked at another way -- the profit from that 1 project = 1/2 the market cap for the whole company right now (market cap about 220 mm)...

    It pays a 5% to 6% divvy at these prices (16 cents a year as 4 quarterly payments) -- buy it mon or tues and 4 cents / share is yours in cash at the end of the month.

    Good luck... word is getting out.. It's not clear how long these lower prices will hold
    Oct 21, 2012. 06:47 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Global Economic Outlook: A Direct Path To Chinese Equities [View article]
    I've done a pile of diligence on XIN & have been tracking it closely. Value and Technical set-up are here. Should have a good quarter to report. There is an overhang of an original investor from the IPO selling some of its position, but other institutionals have been picking up the shares -- more diversity now.

    Funniest thing (and great value) was the company has been accused of not being real by wall street, despite having a very consistent story and excellent numbers. So, what did it do? It bought a piece of land that for condos in brookly williamsburg district for $54 million that was in foreclosure -- AND NOW WALLSTREET CAN SEE THE ASSET (hard to call it fraud :! ) Adding another $50 for build out -- and there were 219 2000 sq condos slated by the previous owner -- XIN may modify the layout & make a few more....

    So math on that 1 project = spend $100 mm. Sell for 220 mm plus (condos in the 2K sq range built in the last 5 years sell for more than $1 mm in the location)

    120 mm profit extra over the next 12-20 months or so... about 70 million shares out -- so just that 1 project will add $1.62/share of profits.. Or looked at another way -- the profit from that 1 project = 1/2 the market cap for the whole company right now (market cap about 220 mm)...

    It pays a 5% to 6% divvy at these prices (16 cents a year as 4 quarterly payments) -- buy it mon or tues and 4 cents / share is yours in cash at the end of the month.

    Good luck... word is getting out.. It's not clear how long these lower prices will hold.
    Oct 21, 2012. 06:29 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Xinyuan Real Estate: Still the World's Cheapest Stock? [View article]
    @deepvaluelover --- The negative sentiment, along with sharing only part of info (eg using the $7 and the % off yearly high - to paint a bear picture -- vs looking at % up for the year, etc) suggests you have a motive for wanting to see this stock lower... A modest increase in shorts occurred at the end of Sept & perhaps you are part of that? Who knows...

    @ricard -- look at the chinese part of the website xyre.com -- there are pictures of apartments opening, of central party folks making appearances.

    Additionally - look at unaffiliated sites on real estate and search for the projects (they are there)

    Keep doing diligence, but the $3.1x mark on the stock is an importatnt tech barrier holding it back --- if you want in, now may be the time (of course, it could go back again... who knows -- but momentum is definitely moving up.

    NOTE -- volume this week (this month) is NOT the company buying as they are in a quiet period, with knowledge of the quarter. That is what they did last quarter (stopped buying in July -- the stock did not do as well as October......
    Oct 21, 2012. 06:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Xinyuan Real Estate: Still the World's Cheapest Stock? [View article]
    XIN is up dramatically from last year (was about $1.75, now $3).... this year tested the next level $3.95 for 1 day, appears to be headed back again.

    DeepValueLover info is not -- statements are in line with a short position, not a value-long investor.
    Oct 19, 2012. 05:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Xinyuan Real Estate: Still the World's Cheapest Stock? [View article]
    TrufflePig - do you have any links re: ETF fund getting dumped?
    (is this part of the BR dumping?)

    Stock with healthy day - no XIN buying, as they are in quiet period. More than 1 million shares - got above 3, tested 3.1 and found support to stay above 3.

    Could definitely gap up Monday (not for sure) -- given 5 day just crossed 20 day avg and given increasing volume on rising price in a generally down market day. Bloomberg article on XIN and CNBC article bullish on Chinese stocks.
    Oct 19, 2012. 05:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Xinyuan Real Estate: Still the World's Cheapest Stock? [View article]
    Yes, agree on NY statement.

    Interesting too, from an income perspective.... Some #'s thrown around in messages... 54 million to buy. 50 million to finish. 200 + million from sale. Adds 200 million in 2013 revenue (? bleeds into 2014 too) and $100 million profit (with 40 million shares out = $2.50/share earnings)....

    Yes, poetic justice -- best way to disprove fraud -- Buy something within spitting distance of wall street.
    Oct 10, 2012. 10:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Xinyuan Real Estate: Still the World's Cheapest Stock? [View article]
    I've been tracking it for a year & also made lost big time in 2011 china debacle. Felt there must be some real companies there.

    This one in particular has passed a bunch of check marks for me. There is a site whackotrader that has an intelligent tech analysis with some interesting thoughts on XIN and price behavior.

    We are at a very interesting tech juncture here - just broke above 100 day average. There are at least 3 trends in play right now - 1) Days - since gap up 10 days ago - consolidating flag, looks as if started uptick yesterday (volume doubled and price closed above 100 day avg for first time). Fill in the "gap" in the candle picture as if it was a big white candle & the flag is pretty clear.

    turns out at the point of the flag for the short term - the end of august is also the consolidation point for a medium trend from March - High = 3.95 and low = 1.75 or so. Now at a retrace fib level and just over the 100 day price.

    finally, there is a long term trend that goes back almost to the post IPO decline, but certainly to the nearly $8 rebound - that also consoldidates in the august sept time frame. This trend hit a low of about $1.75 2 or 3 times over a few year period.

    Bottom line - short (days), medium (months) and long (years) Technical support for near term up right now. Value proposition is there (undervalued, good cash, etc) and macro trend - chinese market, etc all point up as well.
    Aug 23, 2012. 09:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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