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Adam Alvarez

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  • BP Set To Benefit Shareholders... And Only Shareholders [View article]
    SIRI and X are my two long term plays. Even though I like BP's stock, I do see some risk that keeps me on the sidelines. XOM, CVX, and BP have all seen earnings drops the last couple years as crude prices have stabilized somewhat. They are all expecting to see increases in earnings in 2014, but expectations don't always equate to guarantees.

    As more of a conservative investor, which is probably shocking to hear considering I'm in U.S. Steel, the oil industry is also a little too volatile for my investment goals. X recently broke above resistance which is why I'm currently riding that while maintaining a tight stop loss order.
    Dec 31, 2013. 10:44 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Expect The Health Care Law To Be Repealed [View article]
    It's true that we don't know what the rise would have been without the law. However, my personal health care costs have risen faster than they did before the bill was passed and I'm sure I'm not the only one.
    Nov 5, 2012. 11:08 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vipshop's Surge Set To Continue [View article]
    In the long term, they're competitors, but right now these IPOs show growth in a previously nonexistent terrain. With so many in China still not buying online and available as potential customers, the thought also that one company is going to rake in a vast majority appears naive.
    Meanwhile, the morning went public, VIPS hit its highest level in more than two months with a reading over $175. Consequently, the stock pulled back that afternoon as shares of JD pulled off from their opening high.
    Jun 3, 2014. 09:15 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Vipshop's Surge Set To Continue [View article]
    Since the beginning of April, shares tested the $160 level on three separate occasions and experienced at least 17 percent corrections each time. Also, since clearing that level the stock has managed to stay above that price, even testing an intraday low of $160.10 on May 23.

    The accounting, as with any Chinese stock, is always a concern which is why I definitely encourage a stop loss order in this case. However, there have been no signs of fraudulent activity or erroneous accounting with this company. Also, I feel the recent IPO of and upcoming IPO of Alibaba will only add more strength and favorability towards this sector. Overall, diminishing the focus on current valuation.
    Jun 2, 2014. 09:40 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Can Healthcare Stocks Continue To Thrive? I Think Not [View article]
    Depending on how long you've held shares and your risk tolerance, from looking at the chart I would personally sell CI around $89-$90. Shares have done very well and I like taking profits. If I leave some money on the table so be it. If you try to squeeze every possible cent out of a stock that you can, you'll go crazy. Trust me, I made those mistakes before.

    Looking at what happened when the stock broke $80, shares faced resistance, volatility, and then after finally getting to almost $85 suffered an almost 15% pullback.

    Now, with questions surrounding the effect of the healthcare law, the costs, and how many people signed up, I would assume even more volatility to come. Simply put, I don't see overwhelming positives for this sector, but I do see negatives and unanswered questions.

    If the shares experience another 15% pullback, the effects of the law become clearer, or is repealed, then I may look at CI. Still, that's not short term, but a possible trade in the future.
    Jan 8, 2014. 09:42 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Can Healthcare Stocks Continue To Thrive? I Think Not [View article]
    The REITs would be a little safer, but I would be hesitant to get in those as well. Anything in any way, shape, or form dealing with healthcare I wish to avoid at this juncture. Once the dust settles and there is a greater understanding, through eventual earnings reports by the healthcare companies, of just how big of headwinds the industry faces, then perhaps the REITs may provide some opportunities. Still, patience must truly be considered a virtue in this instance.
    Jan 7, 2014. 02:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • BP Set To Benefit Shareholders... And Only Shareholders [View article]
    To your comment and the rest that argue the same thought, due to the company's recent actions I'm left to severely wonder if they are being taken advantage of by individuals seeking false claims. At least to the extent they argue.
    Sure, there are those surely out to just strike it rich. However, from a PR standpoint, considering there have been multiple accusations BP hasn't paid up like initially agreed upon, the question must be asked whether the company is really facing such a degree of fraudulent claims.
    The way the company, such as spokesperson Geoff Morrell, came out and argued, you would have thought BP was being taken advantage of to the fullest extent. However, if you look at their financial records, it shows a different story. They have beat on two of three reports this year and they recently raised their dividend to a 4.54% yield in just the last quarter (supposedly when the false claims skyrocketed).
    Yes, I know this is an oil company and the industry offers high payouts, but if your company is really going through such controversy, are you going to be boosting your payouts? I would think you would strive harder to conserve cash in case you lost your they did.
    The bottom line is I have reason to believe through their financial data and reporting that they are not being scammed, at least not to such a noticeable degree. They are out to pay less and save the money more for themselves and shareholders. Not surprising, but unfortunate anyway.
    I'm not saying BP shouldn't quibble over unsupported lawsuits. I'm asking BP to prove to me they are really facing such deceitful claims in the same way they're asking those making the claims to prove their damages. This should be a two-way street. Not just BP determining who to pay and who to reject on their own whim. To this point, the federal judge failed to see such a defense.
    As a stock, I view this as a great buy. It's cheap, undervalued, and with great dividend security. As a company, though, they are leaving much to be desired.
    Dec 31, 2013. 09:43 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Flock To Retailers This Holiday Season [View article]
    Well, WMT, TGT and M are all getting thrashed today in trade and others such as JCP, SHLD and BBY are barely positive. I'm surely not seeing a whole lot of winners here considering the market is still up 100 points in the last two sessions even after morning weakness.
    Also, you have to realize I wasn't just predicting Black Friday to be a flop. I was pointing out how many of these retailers went down last December. It used to be retailers were the best investment in December and the last couple years have shown that's no longer the case.
    Nov 26, 2012. 10:01 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Expect The Health Care Law To Be Repealed [View article]
    They funded it earlier this year:
    What's to say they would suddenly reverse course and stop now?
    Nov 5, 2012. 12:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Steel Again Worth The Risk [View article]
    My faith in this stock comes mostly from its holding of support, especially in the face of multiple downgrades recently. This is the fifth time in the last 12 months shares have been under $20. The previous four times shares touched no lower than $17.67 and quickly rebounded back over $20. This is a very proven and solid support that would only be broken by a very negative company report. Although possible, I feel such a report is unlikely for two reasons.
    First, the company has beat on its first two quarterly reports this year and is not projected to post any further losses over the next six quarters. Although bottomline estimates have the company reporting losses the next two quarters, I feel such negativity has already been taken into consideration via the recent downward pressure on shares.
    Second, U.S. Steel, unlike Nucor, pays a very modest dividend with a yield of only 1%. That makes them more able to maintain strong cash flow which is undoubtedly necessary in such a sketchy environment. One reason why Nucor recently lowered guidance while U.S. Steel has not.
    I do want to still assure you this is a very risky position. I just look at the chart pattern and see a risk worth taking unlike, for instance, AK Steel. I definitely recommend a stop loss order on any trade here of at least $16. If you really worry about the risk, you may raise that to $18 as I feel that level should provide strong support as well.
    Oct 1, 2012. 03:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Cheer Apple's Dividend Just Yet [View article]
    Because it illustrates their pension for appeasing shareholders outweighed their drive to further succeed and expand. They're no longer first-to-market with new ideas-why else would that be the case? Competition shouldn't have stopped all their progress. Plus, history shows companies that pay dividends underperform those that don't. Just a fact.
    Mar 22, 2012. 11:38 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Preparing For The Next Fall In Netflix Shares [View article]
    Probably around $70-$80. May not retest the $62 lows from earlier in the year, at least not this year, but should definitely experience some hard times ahead of those earnings reports and increased competition. That first quarter report in late April is what I'm looking at to really start the selling.
    Mar 20, 2012. 09:26 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I'm Selling Ahead Of Friday's Jobs Number [View article]
    You must accept, though, that China lowered their GDP forecast because of uncertainties in the EU and here. The ADP report was good today, but to assume that will transfer to a surprise Friday is risky. The expectation for Friday is an increase of 213,000, so even if we added 200,000 jobs the markets will fall. To go up 150-200, we will need to see an increase of at least 250,000 jobs which is very hopeful. It may happen, but you should definitely implement some stop loss orders because if this does miss you're looking at a 200 point drop at least.
    Mar 7, 2012. 02:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I'm Selling Ahead Of Friday's Jobs Number [View article]
    Mostly banks and steel stocks, companies most dependent on a growing workforce and production, and I would also strongly encourage tight stop loss orders on everything else. The 203 point drop yesterday may have been a precursor. Markets typically will trade flat before such big announcements-not nosedive.
    Mar 7, 2012. 01:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Twitter A Risk, But A Calculated Risk [View article]
    I got in Twitter exactly five months after its IPO at $43. I took a big gamble and am not saying it can't continue to struggle for the full six months like Facebook and LinkedIn. However, I don't strive to get in at the exact lowest price and tend to look at more the long term picture. What's most important is having a stop loss at $38.

    As for your doubts about this stock involving "calculated risk," I once felt the same way towards social media. I never bought LNKD nor FB. When LinkedIn surged its opening day, there were also many claims it was overpriced and look at all the heat Facebook took upon its disastrous IPO. Nevertheless, both stocks did the same thing in the long run. That is they not only recovered after initial pullbacks, they surged.

    Are they all overvalued? Personally, I think they are. However, the same can be said for most stocks at this juncture. Maybe the fact that both LinkedIn and Facebook hit their all-time lows six months into trading is all a coincidence, but it's still very ironic.
    Apr 9, 2014. 09:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment