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Adam Block

 
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  • Arcos Dorados Hits Bottom, Finds A Shovel [View article]
    Very nice article. I really appreciate the work you put in to this!
    Sep 11, 2014. 05:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arguably The Most Compelling Short Squeeze Stock Of 2014: Weight Watchers [View article]
    I like the idea, but I just can't get over the massive amount of debt on the balance sheet. Thoughts?
    Mar 20, 2014. 08:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Concrete Is Still Attractive Even After More Than Doubling This Year [View article]
    Nice job! At what point do you think the business becomes profitable?
    Nov 14, 2013. 07:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Time To Short ParkerVision Is Now [View article]
    Federal post-judgment interest is the one-year treasury rate, and it doesn't start to run until after a judgment is entered (which still hasn't happened yet).

    Pre-judgment interest, on the other hand goes back to the earliest breach, so by now those damages from the portion of chip sales in the earliest years may have been compounding for... 10 years? 15 years?

    See http://bit.ly/HsnMjx for brief overview.
    Oct 30, 2013. 12:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Time To Short ParkerVision Is Now [View article]
    Good work on the article. I wish I had gotten around to writing it myself!

    That being said, I have a couple of quibbles:
    1) I agree with the Mr. Bogdanovich that pre-judgment interest could be as much as $100 million, and I think this needs to be a part of a "worst-case scenario."
    2) It's unlikely that the fee arrangement requires the firm to be paid before a judgment or settlement is received by the client. On the other hand, if the case goes up on appeal, the fee agreement probably provides for a higher percentage of the award to go to the lawyers.

    I agree with your conclusion. To a certain extent, the sides reverse after a jury verdict: the winning plaintiff now has to play "not to lose" his jury award and his strongest card (the threat of an extravagant jury verdict) has already been played; the defendant on the other hand just has a liability and he's working to drive it down.
    Oct 30, 2013. 09:53 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • ParkerVision V. Qualcomm: Daubert Ruling And First Week Of Trial [View article]
    Great articles. Thanks for all your work.

    I see that Parkervision has a 100m tax asset, and I assume that they've been paying litigation expenses, which means they're contingent agreement probably costs them 33% of the judgment.

    Any idea about pre-judgment interest? Do you have an estimate of the recovery available to shareholders?
    Oct 25, 2013. 09:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Energy, Restaurants And Retail Stocks In A Cautiously Rising Market [View article]
    Any thoughts on getting back in CRK? Do you like DVN, UPL or any other names at these prices?
    Apr 2, 2013. 10:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mellanox: End Of Romley Upgrade Signals Steep Downside [View article]
    Great call, Sahm and Kerrisdale. I owe y'all a bottle of wine or something. This is at least the second time I've followed you in to a short and done well.

    To repay the favor, I want to tell you a long I'm getting interested in. It's chip manufacturer in a highly cyclical part of the business whose share price is falling and has about a quarter of its market cap as cash on the books. Ticker symbol is MLNX.
    Jan 24, 2013. 07:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Marvell Technology Group Is A Long-Term Defensive Value Play [View article]
    Thoughts on the verdict, anybody?
    Dec 27, 2012. 09:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cisco Has To Prove Itself Again [View article]
    Does your analysis take in to account that the company holds more than half it's own market cap in cash? That is to say, if you pay 17 dollars for a share of Cisco, you get about 9 dollars in cash, plus a profitable network equipment manufacturer?
    Nov 8, 2012. 11:48 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Mellanox: End Of Romley Upgrade Signals Steep Downside [View article]
    I followed Kerrisdale in, and I've been very pleased to see the short thesis start to play out. Where is everyone else closing their shorts? My first thoughts are to buy the position back now in the high 70s, take profits and give MLNX some credit for being a good, honest business. But my second thoughts are to wait for another group of traders to come in and start shorting now after the restriction, and buy from them.

    Thoughts?
    Oct 20, 2012. 10:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Optionality In Shorting The Yen [View article]
    Hugh Hendry has also talked about being the short the Yen, and I like his reasoning. I assume he is doing through options, though. I've been really disappointed in the roll yield loss of leverage ETFs when I've used them to express other macro views.

    Do you have any thoughts about what that looks like in this case?
    Oct 14, 2012. 02:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Merger Arbitrage Opportunity After Venoco Buyer Presents Financing Plan [View article]
    VQ closed at about $12.30 today. Tim Marquez has until October 8 to close his financing to buy the rest of the company at a price of $12.50.

    At this point, there is only about 1.5% potential gain left in shares. It's true that if you could make 1.5% per week for 50 weeks a year, you could have an annualized return of over 100%, at this point, the risk that something goes wrong outweighs the potential benefit from the merger closing, and I plan to sell tomorrow.
    Oct 1, 2012. 05:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Merger Arbitrage Opportunity After Venoco Buyer Presents Financing Plan [View article]
    I don't have any news. I owned some VQ stock in a margined account and I sold at 12, and I own some in an un-margined account which I continue to hold.
    Sep 13, 2012. 09:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Abakan: An Overvalued Short Candidate (Part II) [View article]
    I'm short a little Abakan. Any idea why it might be falling today? I see the Confidential Treatment Order filed on Friday, http://1.usa.gov/TbqcDo, but I have no idea what it's about.

    I had been expecting the price to fall on either some company-specific bad news or in the midst of a market-wide decline, and I don't observe either of those today. Thanks in advance to anyone who has input!
    Aug 6, 2012. 03:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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36 Comments
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