View as an RSS Feed
View Adam Gefvert, CFA's Articles BY TICKER:
AAPL, ACHN, ADNC, AEZS, AFFY, AMPE, AMZN, APKT, APP, BKS, BREW, CAAS, CERPQ, CMEDQ, CPST, DMND, EDU, FLO, FLWS, GEVO, GILD, GNI, GSK, HDSN, HMIN, HRBN, IBIO, IMAX, INHX, IOC, IPDN, JCP, JRCCQ, KATE, KCG, KERX, KEYW, KIOR, LF, LLEN, LLNW, LNG, LNKD, LOCO, LONG, LULU, MFGLQ, MNK, MOBI, MUEL, MVIS, NEON, NFLX, NOW, NUS, NWBO, OCZ, ONVO, OREX, PARL, PERF, PPHM, QTWW, QUMU, RCPI, REGI, RPRX, RTRX, RVBD, SHLD, SLP, SPG, SPLK, SPPI, STP, SVM, SVNTQ, TASR, TESS, TLB, TNC, UNIS, UNXL, UTSI, VISN, VRS, WWE, YOD, ZOLL, ZSTN
If Achillion's Hep C Nucleotide Isn't Best In Class, The Stock Is Worth Low Single Digits
- If Achillion's nucleotide (nuc), ACH-3422, works as well or worse than Gilead's Sovaldi, there is little use for it in the market.
- Since May, Achillion (ACHN) has experienced an avalanche of selling by insiders and major holders, and no reported buying by institutions.
- By the time ACHN can sell its nucleotide (nuc), expected in 2018, there will be a Hepatitis C treatment price war, and the market will have shrunk substantially.
- Little is known about ACHN's nuc, and it's unlikely it will work better than Gilead's or Merck's.
- Deutsche Bank recently reported that if ACH-3422 fails, which they say is likely, ACHN's value is between $1.25 (cash) and $4 per share.
Holders Of Great Northern Iron Ore Will Lose 30% Of Their Money In 7 Months
- Great Northern Iron Ore (GNI) is now trading at an astonishing $24 per share.
- GNI's VP and CFO, Thomas Janochoski, confirmed dividends aren't expected to increase this year over last year.
- GNI investors will only receive three more quarterly dividends averaging $2.50 apiece, and then a final liquidation payout of, at best, $9.72, to total $17.22.
- Suggested Short Position Holding Length: 16 days, Risk: Very Low, Reward: Medium.
The Professional Diversity Network's New Hard-Selling Strategy To Get Members Likely Won't Work
- The Professional Diversity Network runs on the flawed premise that minorities need a professional network just for them.
- After being dumped by its major partner LinkedIn in March 2014, the company was left without any meaningful revenue sources.
- Out of necessity (on both sides), it acquired the National Association of Professional Women (NAPW).
- The NAPW gets revenues by hard-selling its membership over the phone to unemployed women, and has many scathing reviews on Yelp.
- IPDN's 65% rise since March has created a good shorting opportunity.
Northwest Bio - You Can See This Data, But Not That Data
- Northwest Bio has a history of showing data too soon.
- Now it's refusing to release data when it's appropriate to show it.
- Failing to release data now means that DC-Vax likely failed and the company is struggling to find something positive by adding "enhancements" to its studies.
- Now is the perfect timing to short NWBO, as all but the most die hard longs must be getting skeptical.
- The company is likely broke right now, and needs to do another equity raise.
The Odds Of El Pollo Loco Falling Below $30 Are Very High
- Widely known companies' IPO stocks almost always go up excessively in the beginning, but give it all back when the excitement is over.
- Many niche restaurant chains have IPOed in the last year; NONE of them have held 2x the IPO price.
- El Pollo Loco is using its IPO money to pay off part of its massive debt load, not for opening more restaurants.
- El Pollo Loco could have a follow-on offering of around $20 per share.
Limelight Networks Is In Terminal Decline, $1.50 Price Target
- Limelight's content delivery network is losing customers to the tough competition.
- Evidence suggests Limelight's competitors offer better CDNs that are constantly improving.
- Management has made many bad decisions and lacks infrastructure experience.
- The losses and cash burn will continue for Limelight in the coming years, until it must raise cash or sell its assets for cheap.
Why It Will Take Years For Uni-Pixel To Reach Production, If Ever, Meanwhile Executives Will Still Get Rich
- Uni-Pixel is a company that, even with the new CEO, is promotional without proving itself in order to get investors' dollars.
- Uni-Pixel uses the term "pilot production" very loosely when in reality it is far from production.
- Whether Uni-Pixel succeeds or fails, executives will still get rich off investors' money.
Expect A 30%+ Decline In Underperforming eLong When The Buyout Rumors Turn Out To Be False
- eLong gained 60% over the past month solely on takeover rumors.
- Ctrip has been taking market share from eLong, and eLong's recent earnings reports have disappointed.
- Ctrip ruthlessly stole an important partner away from eLong.
- Expedia, eLong's majority shareholder, says the takeover rumors are false and doesn't want to sell its stake.
Uni-Pixel Still Struggling To Advance From A Lab Experiment To A Sellable Product
- Uni-Pixel still has no visibility on when it will be able to commercialize its touch sensor.
- Its operational update press release on June 25th looked triumphant; however, the call had vague, and strange, details.
- Atmel, another metal mesh touch sensor creator, is also having a hard time.
- Asian manufacturers have several huge advantages over Atmel and Uni-Pixel.
Great Northern Iron Ore Properties Will Likely Fall To $15 Soon After The June 26th Ex-Dividend Date
- Great Northern will terminate on April 6th, 2015 and the stock will go to zero.
- The final three dividends, not including June's, and final liquidation distribution will total about $15 per share not taking into account the time value of money.
- The same price action leading up to and after GNI's March ex-dividend date, is playing out for June's as well.
- With declining iron ore prices, and increasing expenses of the trust, it's likely shareholders will get smaller distributions than they expect.
Keryx Biopharmaceuticals: Baupost Group's New Position Suggests A Possible Takeout And 100%+ Gains
- In 1Q 2014, top hedge fund Baupost Group started a position in KERX and is now its largest shareholder.
- Two weeks ago, Idenix announced it's getting acquired by Merck for over three times its share price. Baupost Group owns 35% of Idenix outstanding shares.
- Worldwide, Keryx's drug Zerenex will likely become the best treatment for chronic kidney disease (CKD) dialysis and pre-dialysis patients.
- If Zerenex is widely used for dialysis and pre-dialysis CKD patients, KERX's value is $60+ using PropThink's model.
- In January 2014, Zerenex got approved in Japan for pre-dialysis and dialysis use in CKD patients.
Maxim's $22 Price Target On Achillion Is Far From Realistic
- Maxim's analyst, Jason Kolbert, has a history of assigning crazy price targets to biotech stocks, and has been wrong most of the time.
- Yesterday, Gilead came out with news of positive phase 3 trials for its Hepatitis C (HCV) Genotype I drug, that suggests ACHN's protease inhibitor Sovaprevir could be worthless now.
- Achillion hasn't done any studies this past year for its pre-clinical stage nucleotide, whereas Idenix has been engaging in studies on its phase 2 nuc.
- Achillion's insiders are selling, and Idenix's biggest shareholder, Baupost, owns no shares of Achillion.
Why Big Pharma Has No Interest In Achillion's 'Me Too' Hepatitis C Drug
- Achillion's roots are developing protease inhibitors to treat hepatitis C (HCV), not nucleotides. Big Pharma is only interested in acquiring nucleotides.
- Achillion is way late to the party with its nucleotide, and just earlier this week, announced it's just starting Phase I trials.
- ACHN is the only hep C biotech stock that ramped up a huge amount on sympathy of the Idenix buyout, but it has no advantages over other hep C stocks.
- Gilead's nucleotide, Sovaldi, is so successful that it is curing 50K-100K hepatitis C patients per year. The market has no need for Achillion's late entry nucleotide.
Gevo, An Extremely Overvalued Ethanol Plant, Has Failed With Its Isobutanol Project
- Gevo has spent $66 million over the past three years trying to retrofit its plant for isobutanol with little progress.
- In March 2014, Gevo announced it will start producing ethanol, which signifies it has failed its isobutanol project.
- When compared to the production per year of the other pure play US public ethanol producers, PEIX and GPRE, Gevo's value is $0.20 per share.
- Whitebox, a distressed lender, lent Gevo $25.9M at a 15% rate and is backed by the company's ethanol plant, its only asset.
Retrophin's Press Releases Have A Lot Of Sugarcoating
- Retrophin's press releases sugarcoat and hide negatives.
- Retrophin has taken on debt at high rates, which suggests the company is a bankruptcy risk.
- In addition to the high rates, the loans are dilutive, as warrants were issued, and some of the debt is convertible to equity.
- Retrophin announced it's selling another company's drug, but at financial terms that suspiciously aren't disclosed.
- The CEO made up a new "non-non-non-GAAP" financial accounting term: Earnings Power Per Share. Aggressive use of Non-GAAP measures are a red flag.
Khosla Is Going To Rip The Rug Underneath KIOR Shareholders When It Files For Bankruptcy
- KIOR is on life support, just surviving off Khosla's $5 million investment per month.
- KiOR needs $51.5 million more cash to survive this year, much more than Khosla's $20 million commitment.
- Khosla isn't buying KIOR stock, he's buying secured senior bonds.
- One can argue that KiOR is effectively going through bankruptcy right now, and Khosla is buying up the distressed assets with the secured bond buying.
Did Bankruptcy-Bound KiOR Fail To Receive Khosla's Expected Investment?
- KiOR is likely flat broke right now, and can be forced to file for bankruptcy protection any day.
- Its only angel investor left, Vinod Khosla, appears to not have given KiOR any funds this month.
- From KiOR's latest 10-Q, it needs over $50M more in cash this year to satisfy its capital needs.
- Also from the 10-Q, KiOR has regressed to conducting experimental lab work to fix its plant's problems, and requires $35M in R&D dollars this year.
Quantum Fuel System's Business Expansion Is By Necessity, Not Choice
- Margins are starting to shrink in Quantum's business of natural gas fuel tanks and systems.
- Quantum was forced to lose its biggest customer, creating a huge hole in revenue forecast.
- Quantum doesn't have the expertise or resources to successfully expand in the beginning, and possibly will never do well.
- Shareholders can expect years of cash burn and share dilution ahead.
Capstone Turbine Shareholders Have More Pain Ahead
- Capstone Turbine pre-reported its current quarterly revenue miss of 16.4% - it's second worst miss in 13 quarters. 2015 estimates need to be revised.
- Russian sanctions targeting the energy sector will affect its Russian distributor which represents over 10% of sales.
- Similar to Plug Power, it did an equity raise because of its overvalued share price, which may be soon followed by a 25% drop like what happened to PLUG.
- Its cash burn is still high.
- It failed its financial compliance with its credit facility with Wells Fargo.
VisionChina - Chinese Bus Advertising Is A Tough Business To Make A Profit
- VisionChina hasn't and won't be profitable because its gross margins are so low.
- Advertising on buses in China is a losing business - look at China MediaExpess (CCME).
- VisionChina needs to find other avenues of income to be profitable, but its acquisition attempts have failed.
- A settlement from a failed acquisition will likely cause massive dilution to shareholders.
You On Demand Is Likely A Zero
- The stock is likely a donut (worth zero).
- This is the first widely distributed negative report on the company.
- Revenues were only $165K last quarter, $300K last year.
- Management have high salaries.
- Fully diluted, the share count is 34.7M, for a market cap of $120M, and only 4% short interest.
Are LeapFrog Tablets Going The Way Of The Dodo?
- LeapFrog had a horrendous Q413 and guidance which demonstrates its current downtrend.
- Android and iOS tablets and apps are increasingly targeting 3-5 year olds, LeapFrog's demographic.
- LeapFrog's apps are more expensive, and doesn't allow Android or iOS apps on its tablets, thus isolating itself.
- LeapFrog's recent bump in share value since its quarterly report make it a good shorting opportunity.
Capstone Turbine's Stock Is More Bloated Than Plug Power's Ever Was
- Street estimates don't predict huge growth, yet Capstone's valuation dwarfs the fuel cell stocks.
- The high price of microturbines makes them unsuitable for most prospective customers.
- Management is highly promotional and overpromises and underdelivers.
- Is Capstone really a green company?
Sky-mobi Is Dominating China's Low-Cost Smartphone App Market
- MOBI is cashing in on the mass migration to low-cost smartphones in China.
- With 50% year on year revenue growth, MOBI has a low valuation.
- MOBI is taking market share from behemoths QIHU and BIDU.
Audience Cancelled 2 Major Investor Conferences - Is It In Takeover Talks?
- Audience cancelled its attendance to March 3rd and March 11th investor conferences.
- This could suggest buyout talks and it isn't well known to the public yet.
- Audience has a niche, dominant product in the smartphone industry, and its current low share price makes it an attractive takeover target.
- Microvision's Pico Projector Technology Has Some Big Disadvantages Compared To The Competition
- With No Significant Revenue Streams In Sight, Microvision Will Continue Falling
- ServiceNow's Market Cap Has Gotten Ahead Of Its Future Growth Story
- Organovo Currently Has Nothing In The Works For Tissue Implantation -- Its Main Value Driver
- 2014 Will Be A Tough Year For Renewable Energy Group And Other Biodiesel Producers
- Will Unilife Be A Tiny Unmet Needs Developer Or A Manufacturing Powerhouse?
- An Analysis Of Unilife's Products Shows A Weak Business Case