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Adam Gefvert, CFA

 
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  • Why Big Pharma Has No Interest In Achillion's 'Me Too' Hepatitis C Drug [View article]
    There's been a lot of good comments here. I especially like those from value investor 12. This kind of back and forth discussion is good for investors trying to figure out an appropriate risk/reward value for the stock. For now, I stick with the opinions that I've made in my article. Many nucs have failed, and ACHN has done very little clinical work to suggest that its ACH-3422 will be a successful and widely used new treatment for HCV. Therefore, the stock is still highly overvalued in my opinion.
    Jun 14 06:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gevo, An Extremely Overvalued Ethanol Plant, Has Failed With Its Isobutanol Project [View article]
    I don't like making my articles long. If I wanted to, I could've made it a 10 page report including everything under the sun regarding GEVO. I include the information that I think is most important, to make it a clear, insightful read to help people make investment decisions. If it wasn't good, then it wouldn't have made Seeking Alpha pro. I also wouldn't have a 90%+ success rate if I wasn't very good at shorting stocks. Just read the article, and see if my points make sense to you. If not, then you're clearly welcome to take the other side of the trade.
    Jun 5 07:05 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gevo, An Extremely Overvalued Ethanol Plant, Has Failed With Its Isobutanol Project [View article]
    People have told me that Gevo has made isobutanol, so that means they have hope. I'll expand on this. Gevo has never been able to produce isobutanol on a commercial level - they are STILL LEARNING. It's easy to make a small amount in a lab.

    Isobutanol is a commodity and thus economics matter, it competes versus x-butanol which is produced by traditional hydrocarbon.
    Jun 5 02:38 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gevo, An Extremely Overvalued Ethanol Plant, Has Failed With Its Isobutanol Project [View article]
    Kirby, the company's results speaks for itself on which scientist is correct. GEVO says itself it is still in the learning stages, and there is a reason why these learning stages never end. I could start a business where I find a way to turn lead into gold. I could be learning for years and investors can pay me a lot of money, because if I can turn lead into gold, the returns would be enormous! I could pay myself a $500K salary out of investors' money. Would I ever admit that I learned I can't turn lead into gold? No, I wouldn't, because then I would become unemployed.
    Jun 5 01:38 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gevo, An Extremely Overvalued Ethanol Plant, Has Failed With Its Isobutanol Project [View article]
    The stock is worth $0.20 at best. My insight is valuable now for an 80% drop.
    Jun 5 12:43 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Saratoga Resources: High-Risk/High-Reward Energy Play [View article]
    One thing you don't include in your article is comps. Like EV/proven reserves comps. That might be a good idea to figure out SARA's worth. I have an article coming up on why GEVO is a good short where I include comps.
    Jun 4 12:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Saratoga Resources: High-Risk/High-Reward Energy Play [View article]
    Thanks you too, good luck!
    Jun 4 12:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Saratoga Resources: High-Risk/High-Reward Energy Play [View article]
    The company already shot its wad with that PR. It is almost flat broke now. The only thing next is an equity raise. I would be very surprised if it goes to $2, but if it does, then I'd have to concede that you are correct, and I would cover my shares.
    Jun 4 11:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Saratoga Resources: High-Risk/High-Reward Energy Play [View article]
    The enterprise value is half the proven reserves because it costs money to get it out of the ground, in addition to all the other expenses the company has. Pump the stock all you want, I'm not going to start covering my shares until it goes to $1.40.
    Jun 4 11:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Saratoga Resources: High-Risk/High-Reward Energy Play [View article]
    I shorted SARA on the recent hype because its debt rises every quarter, it's currently at $178M, and it will be out of cash within 2 quarters. This PR is also from the company, so it's likely exaggerated and there's a good chance it was done in order to gear up for an equity raise.
    Jun 4 10:48 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Retrophin's Press Releases Have A Lot Of Sugarcoating [View article]
    Thanks. Wow, total meltdown for RTRX. I covered my short too early.
    Jun 4 10:33 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Retrophin's Press Releases Have A Lot Of Sugarcoating [View article]
    I don't think Martin's tweet was an illegal insider tip because Twitter is a public forum. I do however think it was a tweet born of weakness out of fear that the news would be taken negatively. As I explain in the article, he needed to let investors know that it was good news and hype it up by tweeting that.
    Jun 2 09:35 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retrophin's Press Releases Have A Lot Of Sugarcoating [View article]
    Really? So if someone has a deadly, rare disease, and there is only one company that has the cure, is that company going to have to outsource salespeople to sell it? Or are doctors and the people with the disease going to knock down their doors to buy it from them?
    Jun 2 05:50 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retrophin: An Analysis Of The Recent Capital Raise And Portfolio Acquisition [View article]
    OK, so what you're saying is, as long as the stock doesn't go up, then shareholders aren't diluted. You have a real optimistic view of your investment. Hey man, Schweser was all I needed to pass!
    Jun 2 04:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retrophin: An Analysis Of The Recent Capital Raise And Portfolio Acquisition [View article]
    How on earth was that offering non-dilutive? 300K warrants at under the current share price. And the senior bonds are convertible for the entire $40M. And you're accusing the author of living in denial?
    Jun 2 03:04 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
1,424 Comments
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